基于技术扩散模型的自主汽车产品市场生命周期研究
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摘要
我国汽车产业高速发展，国内的汽车市场极具竞争性和不稳定性，而自主汽车企业的产品开发决策往往根据经验进行，带有盲目性和主观性。企业在面对已有产品生命周期，新技术引入时间，新产品推出，品牌产品竞争力等关键问题时，缺乏科学的理论依据和客观的分析工具。然而，迄今为止，专门针对汽车产品生命周期的研究较少，现有的研究大多集中在汽车产业的宏观层面。
本研究旨在建立科学量化的产品生命周期分析预测模型，为汽车企业产品研发与规划提供客观分析并灵活应对的有效工具。将产品生命周期与技术创新扩散理论相结合，既保留产品生命周期的理论意义，又对技术扩散模型及方法加以应用。产品扩散模型以时间序列，准确量化描绘产品生命周期曲线，从而达到定量预测产品生命周期的目标。本研究构建了具有关联性的三个产品扩散模型，首先，分析细分市场整体需求与扩散特点，在此基础上，再从技术创新引起的产品更新换代以及品牌产品两个不同的维度，分析特定研究对象的生命周期扩散曲线。并以交叉型乘用车产品为例，对模型的结构、有效性与应用进行深入研究与实证分析验证，从而形成多维产品生命周期评价体系，讨论延长生命周期的产品开发方法。本文主要开展以下研究工作：
首先，产品生命周期理论根据产品扩散曲线定性识别生命周期阶段，而对生命周期的影响因素的定量分析缺乏工具，对产品时间序列的扩散数量预测能力不足。技术扩散模型则来源于创新理论，常以时间为变量，考虑扩散影响因素，建立数学模型，预测产品的时间序列量化扩散过程，但其缺乏对产品扩散各阶段定性的理论分析与产品市场策略的指导。因此二者结合，以期得到符合汽车产品扩散规律的生命周期曲线模型，并指导产品策略。
由于汽车产品尚没有公认的扩散模型，因此，比较分析了几种典型扩散曲线模型，从而确定符合细分市场汽车产品扩散规律的基础模型。同时，模型参数估计是模型建立的关键问题之一，涉及产品扩散模型的应用方法。不同的模型参数估计算法对模型拟合的结果影响很大，因此，本文提出遗传算法与非线性最小二乘法相结合的两步参数估计方法，弥补了两种算法的不足之处，从而为多维产品扩散模型的构建与应用做了基础的准备工作。
其次，产品生命周期理论定义较概括，研究对象可从产品大类到品牌产品，结合汽车产品生命周期研究的实际需要，着眼于行业产品，构建细分市场汽车产品扩散模型。在此基础上，从再从技术更新换代、品牌产品两个不同的维度，分析特定汽车产品生命周期扩散曲线。
建立动态市场环境下产品扩散模型，为细分市场产品生命周期分析提供有效工具。综合考虑重复购买、消费者购买力、产品制造成本以及政府补贴措施等市场环境变量，建立改进的产品扩散模型，解决了传统产品扩散模型在反映动态市场环境方面的问题，也弥补了产品生命周期理论对于市场环境定量分析的不足。实证分析表明，该模型更好地解释了中国交叉型乘用车行业的发展规律，对行业的预测力也优于传统模型。其目的在于从产业宏观角度，对产品的生命周期进行分析。
建立多代产品扩散模型，为产品的更新换代提供科学的分析手段。产品在用户需求变化的驱动下，进行技术创新，由此引发产品的更新换代。在细分市场上，新老产品之间具有共存与竞争关系，直接决定了企业的产品技术创新方向。因此，汽车企业准确应对未来的技术发展方向，有针对性的定位产品未来的趋势，引导消费，也非常重要。基于行业的整体需求，根据经典的多代产品扩散模型，融入产品的竞争与差异性因素，填补了传统模型在解释多代产品差异化和竞争关系方面的缺陷。对第一代平头交叉型乘用车与第二代凸头交叉型乘用车的更新换代过程进行实证研究，发现其过程符合改进模型规律。
建立品牌产品扩散模型，为品牌产品的生命周期判断提供量化的依据。由于品牌扩散的复杂多变，针对品牌产品扩散模型的研究具有复杂性与不确定性。在传统产品扩散模型的基础上，考虑行业市场竞争因素，建立品牌产品的扩散模型。该模型对交叉型乘用车的主要品牌产品实际扩散有较好的解释力，并且模型参数具有实际的意义，能够反映品牌产品的竞争力，模型可构建品牌产品生命周期曲线，从而为企业品牌产品竞争策略提供决策依据。
再次，基于多维产品扩散模型，建立产品生命周期多维评价体系，并且为汽车企业新产品研发提供工程化的支持。结合扩散模型，探讨形成宏观、中观、微观三个层次的产品生命周期评价与预测体系，从而解决产品生命周期定义笼统单一的问题。根据产品的生命周期分析结论，提出产品平台价值最大化，平台生命周期尽量延长的产品技术开发策略，以及多目标优化的产品配置策略，更加符合工程需求的支持汽车企业产品开发工作。
The automobile industry is one of the pillar industries in China. Domestic automobile market is highly competitive and instability. And the automobile produc t also has features of platform, series and diversity. All the above causes the abnormity and dynamics in automobile product life cycle. Thus, the new product development has to adapt to the market passively or follow the stereotype of period without scientific analysis tools and theoretical basis.Development policy of industry and operational decisions of firms often depend critically on product life cycle information. The existing researches focus on product category and the macro level of automobile industry. Little research on the diffusion of particular product and brand product, and its realization and application has been found.
This study aims to establish scientif ic and quantitative product life cycle analysis model for product development to provide tools for objective analysis and flexible response.Product life cycle theory and technological innovation diffusion theory are employed to study one segment of China automobile industry, i.e. cross-type passenger vehicle. Not only the cycle descript ion of product life cycle is retained, but also the multidimensional models for product diffusion are suggested which are include three dimensions, i.e. overall demand of segment market, mult iple generation products of technology innovation and brand product. S o life cycle diffusion curves of industry product, technology update and brand product are described. The research is in-depth on structure, effectiveness and application of diffusion model. Then cross-type passenger vehicle in China as an example is verif ied empirical analysis. So as to form the product life cycle assessment system, discuss the product development method to extend of the automobile product life cycle. It deals with the follow ing research work:
First, The key theory of product life cycle is stage recognit ion based on the product life diffusion curve, neither according with affecting factors nor analyzing prediction ability.The theory of technology diffusion is suggested, choose the product diffusion model, in order to get the life cycle curve model according with diffusion rule of automobile product:
Since there is no recognized diffusion model for automobile products, several typical diffusion models are compared and analyzed to determine the basic model for cross-type passenger vehicle. Mea nwhile, parameter estimation is one of the key problems for application of diffusion model. Different algor ithms for parameter estimation impact the fitting results of the model. Therefore, a two-step estimation method combining GA (Genetic Algorithm) and NLS (Nonlinear Least Square) is analyzed for prepared work to construct and apply multidimensional models.
Secondly, the product life cycle theory is ambiguous.The research object is from the product categories to brand products.The actual needs of life cy cle of automotive products are from the three dimensions of industry product, technology upgrading and brand products. Multidimensional diffusion model is constructed, considering various influence factors of three dimensions, in order to get different research dimension curve model of product life cycle:
Product diffusion model with dynamic market environment:
Replacement purchase and dynamic market inf luence product diffusion, limiting application of basic product diffusion model. A dynamic market variables set is constructed to reflect environment changes. The extended product diffusion model is proposed considering replacement purchase and dynamic market factors. Cross-type passenger vehicle is empirical studied. And the factors of repeat purchase, purchasing power, product cost, and government subsidies are analysed in the extended diffusion model. The results indicate that the suggested model with perfect fitness and forecasting accuracy shows better performance in explaining diffusion rule. Product life cycle is analysed from macro industry scope for sustainable development with extended model.
Product diffusion model of successive generation:
Products are updated under the driver of consumer demand and technology innovation. Based on diffusion theory, competition and heterogeneity are incorporated in classical multi-generation products diffusion model. The models which assume that competition and heterogeneity variables simultaneously influence the diffusion of successive generations at different level are proposed to examine the impact of factors. The results of China cross-type passenger vehicle in recent11years indicate that competition and heterogeneity act an important role in the diffusion of mult i-generation vehicle products. Meanwhile, empir ical results also validate the perfect fitness and forecasting accuracy of the suggested model incorporating competition and heterogeneity variables in mult i-generation products diffusion.
Brand product diffusion model:
Due to the complexity and variability of brand diffusion, the research on the diffusion model for brand products is diversity and uncertainty. Based on diffusion theory，competition and expansion of industry market are incorporated in classical diffusion model. The model which assumes that industry market simultaneously influenced various brands diffusion within a product category is proposed to examine the impact of industry market factors on brand diffusion. The results of three brands in cross-type passenger vehicle market in recent10years indicate that market expansion acts an important role in brand diffusion. Meanwhile empirical results also validate the effectiveness of incorporating market expansion variables in brand diffusion model. It can provide decision-making basis for product development strategy.
Finally, establishment of product life cycle assessment system based on diffusion models:
Combining the mult idimensional diffusion models, product life cycle of three levels including industry, technology and brand is discussed, to compensate for previous research. According to the analysis conclusion of product life cycle, it is proposed to maximize product platform value and extend platform life cycle as far as possible for product technology strategy. And product configuration strategy with mult i-objective optimization is suggested based on consumers’ individual preferences for realistic guidance of product development.
本研究旨在建立科学量化的产品生命周期分析预测模型，为汽车企业产品研发与规划提供客观分析并灵活应对的有效工具。将产品生命周期与技术创新扩散理论相结合，既保留产品生命周期的理论意义，又对技术扩散模型及方法加以应用。产品扩散模型以时间序列，准确量化描绘产品生命周期曲线，从而达到定量预测产品生命周期的目标。本研究构建了具有关联性的三个产品扩散模型，首先，分析细分市场整体需求与扩散特点，在此基础上，再从技术创新引起的产品更新换代以及品牌产品两个不同的维度，分析特定研究对象的生命周期扩散曲线。并以交叉型乘用车产品为例，对模型的结构、有效性与应用进行深入研究与实证分析验证，从而形成多维产品生命周期评价体系，讨论延长生命周期的产品开发方法。本文主要开展以下研究工作：
首先，产品生命周期理论根据产品扩散曲线定性识别生命周期阶段，而对生命周期的影响因素的定量分析缺乏工具，对产品时间序列的扩散数量预测能力不足。技术扩散模型则来源于创新理论，常以时间为变量，考虑扩散影响因素，建立数学模型，预测产品的时间序列量化扩散过程，但其缺乏对产品扩散各阶段定性的理论分析与产品市场策略的指导。因此二者结合，以期得到符合汽车产品扩散规律的生命周期曲线模型，并指导产品策略。
由于汽车产品尚没有公认的扩散模型，因此，比较分析了几种典型扩散曲线模型，从而确定符合细分市场汽车产品扩散规律的基础模型。同时，模型参数估计是模型建立的关键问题之一，涉及产品扩散模型的应用方法。不同的模型参数估计算法对模型拟合的结果影响很大，因此，本文提出遗传算法与非线性最小二乘法相结合的两步参数估计方法，弥补了两种算法的不足之处，从而为多维产品扩散模型的构建与应用做了基础的准备工作。
其次，产品生命周期理论定义较概括，研究对象可从产品大类到品牌产品，结合汽车产品生命周期研究的实际需要，着眼于行业产品，构建细分市场汽车产品扩散模型。在此基础上，从再从技术更新换代、品牌产品两个不同的维度，分析特定汽车产品生命周期扩散曲线。
建立动态市场环境下产品扩散模型，为细分市场产品生命周期分析提供有效工具。综合考虑重复购买、消费者购买力、产品制造成本以及政府补贴措施等市场环境变量，建立改进的产品扩散模型，解决了传统产品扩散模型在反映动态市场环境方面的问题，也弥补了产品生命周期理论对于市场环境定量分析的不足。实证分析表明，该模型更好地解释了中国交叉型乘用车行业的发展规律，对行业的预测力也优于传统模型。其目的在于从产业宏观角度，对产品的生命周期进行分析。
建立多代产品扩散模型，为产品的更新换代提供科学的分析手段。产品在用户需求变化的驱动下，进行技术创新，由此引发产品的更新换代。在细分市场上，新老产品之间具有共存与竞争关系，直接决定了企业的产品技术创新方向。因此，汽车企业准确应对未来的技术发展方向，有针对性的定位产品未来的趋势，引导消费，也非常重要。基于行业的整体需求，根据经典的多代产品扩散模型，融入产品的竞争与差异性因素，填补了传统模型在解释多代产品差异化和竞争关系方面的缺陷。对第一代平头交叉型乘用车与第二代凸头交叉型乘用车的更新换代过程进行实证研究，发现其过程符合改进模型规律。
建立品牌产品扩散模型，为品牌产品的生命周期判断提供量化的依据。由于品牌扩散的复杂多变，针对品牌产品扩散模型的研究具有复杂性与不确定性。在传统产品扩散模型的基础上，考虑行业市场竞争因素，建立品牌产品的扩散模型。该模型对交叉型乘用车的主要品牌产品实际扩散有较好的解释力，并且模型参数具有实际的意义，能够反映品牌产品的竞争力，模型可构建品牌产品生命周期曲线，从而为企业品牌产品竞争策略提供决策依据。
再次，基于多维产品扩散模型，建立产品生命周期多维评价体系，并且为汽车企业新产品研发提供工程化的支持。结合扩散模型，探讨形成宏观、中观、微观三个层次的产品生命周期评价与预测体系，从而解决产品生命周期定义笼统单一的问题。根据产品的生命周期分析结论，提出产品平台价值最大化，平台生命周期尽量延长的产品技术开发策略，以及多目标优化的产品配置策略，更加符合工程需求的支持汽车企业产品开发工作。
The automobile industry is one of the pillar industries in China. Domestic automobile market is highly competitive and instability. And the automobile produc t also has features of platform, series and diversity. All the above causes the abnormity and dynamics in automobile product life cycle. Thus, the new product development has to adapt to the market passively or follow the stereotype of period without scientific analysis tools and theoretical basis.Development policy of industry and operational decisions of firms often depend critically on product life cycle information. The existing researches focus on product category and the macro level of automobile industry. Little research on the diffusion of particular product and brand product, and its realization and application has been found.
This study aims to establish scientif ic and quantitative product life cycle analysis model for product development to provide tools for objective analysis and flexible response.Product life cycle theory and technological innovation diffusion theory are employed to study one segment of China automobile industry, i.e. cross-type passenger vehicle. Not only the cycle descript ion of product life cycle is retained, but also the multidimensional models for product diffusion are suggested which are include three dimensions, i.e. overall demand of segment market, mult iple generation products of technology innovation and brand product. S o life cycle diffusion curves of industry product, technology update and brand product are described. The research is in-depth on structure, effectiveness and application of diffusion model. Then cross-type passenger vehicle in China as an example is verif ied empirical analysis. So as to form the product life cycle assessment system, discuss the product development method to extend of the automobile product life cycle. It deals with the follow ing research work:
First, The key theory of product life cycle is stage recognit ion based on the product life diffusion curve, neither according with affecting factors nor analyzing prediction ability.The theory of technology diffusion is suggested, choose the product diffusion model, in order to get the life cycle curve model according with diffusion rule of automobile product:
Since there is no recognized diffusion model for automobile products, several typical diffusion models are compared and analyzed to determine the basic model for cross-type passenger vehicle. Mea nwhile, parameter estimation is one of the key problems for application of diffusion model. Different algor ithms for parameter estimation impact the fitting results of the model. Therefore, a two-step estimation method combining GA (Genetic Algorithm) and NLS (Nonlinear Least Square) is analyzed for prepared work to construct and apply multidimensional models.
Secondly, the product life cycle theory is ambiguous.The research object is from the product categories to brand products.The actual needs of life cy cle of automotive products are from the three dimensions of industry product, technology upgrading and brand products. Multidimensional diffusion model is constructed, considering various influence factors of three dimensions, in order to get different research dimension curve model of product life cycle:
Product diffusion model with dynamic market environment:
Replacement purchase and dynamic market inf luence product diffusion, limiting application of basic product diffusion model. A dynamic market variables set is constructed to reflect environment changes. The extended product diffusion model is proposed considering replacement purchase and dynamic market factors. Cross-type passenger vehicle is empirical studied. And the factors of repeat purchase, purchasing power, product cost, and government subsidies are analysed in the extended diffusion model. The results indicate that the suggested model with perfect fitness and forecasting accuracy shows better performance in explaining diffusion rule. Product life cycle is analysed from macro industry scope for sustainable development with extended model.
Product diffusion model of successive generation:
Products are updated under the driver of consumer demand and technology innovation. Based on diffusion theory, competition and heterogeneity are incorporated in classical multi-generation products diffusion model. The models which assume that competition and heterogeneity variables simultaneously influence the diffusion of successive generations at different level are proposed to examine the impact of factors. The results of China cross-type passenger vehicle in recent11years indicate that competition and heterogeneity act an important role in the diffusion of mult i-generation vehicle products. Meanwhile, empir ical results also validate the perfect fitness and forecasting accuracy of the suggested model incorporating competition and heterogeneity variables in mult i-generation products diffusion.
Brand product diffusion model:
Due to the complexity and variability of brand diffusion, the research on the diffusion model for brand products is diversity and uncertainty. Based on diffusion theory，competition and expansion of industry market are incorporated in classical diffusion model. The model which assumes that industry market simultaneously influenced various brands diffusion within a product category is proposed to examine the impact of industry market factors on brand diffusion. The results of three brands in cross-type passenger vehicle market in recent10years indicate that market expansion acts an important role in brand diffusion. Meanwhile empirical results also validate the effectiveness of incorporating market expansion variables in brand diffusion model. It can provide decision-making basis for product development strategy.
Finally, establishment of product life cycle assessment system based on diffusion models:
Combining the mult idimensional diffusion models, product life cycle of three levels including industry, technology and brand is discussed, to compensate for previous research. According to the analysis conclusion of product life cycle, it is proposed to maximize product platform value and extend platform life cycle as far as possible for product technology strategy. And product configuration strategy with mult i-objective optimization is suggested based on consumers’ individual preferences for realistic guidance of product development.
引文
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