Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式的改进及对1997/1998 El Nino事件的模拟与诊断分析
|
摘要
本文利用925hPa NCEP／NCAR再分析风场资料替代FSU风场资料对Zebiak—Cane海气耦合模式(简称ZC耦合模式)的初始强迫风场进行了改进，结合模拟资料与观测资料对1997／1998 El Nino事件进行了诊断分析，提出了1997／1998 El Nino发生、发展的一种新的可能机制，进而对El Nino成因机制进行了进一步完善，最后尝试对改进初始强迫风场后的ZC耦合模式的大气模式中的潜热加热计算的参数化方案进行了改进。结果表明：
(1)80、90年代925hPaNCEP／NCAR再分析风应力距平(以下简称NCEP风应力距平)较FSU风应力距平与观测的SSTA匹配更为合理。NCEP风应力距平不仅较FSU风应力距平对ZC海洋模式初始化的效果好，尤其在90年代更为显著，而且以NCEP风应力距平替代FSU风应力距平作为ZC耦合模式的初始强迫风场提高了该耦合模式的预报能力，可以提前6—8个月成功地预报出1997／1998 El Nino事件。改进初始强迫风场后的ZC耦合模式(以下简称ZCW耦合模式)没有表现出明显的“春季预报”障碍现象，但对冷事件的预报能力仍然有限。
(2)对1997／1998 El Nino事件进行热力诊断分析表明，NINO4区纬向平流项与经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献相当，且都大于垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献；NINO3区经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，纬向平流项与垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献相当；NINO1+2区，仍然是经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，而纬向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献小于垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献。总的看来，经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，纬向平流项与垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献相当。从NINO4区到NINO1+2区，纬向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献基本呈减小趋势，而经向平流项和垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献却是呈上升趋势。在整个过程中热力阻尼项对SSTA变化基本都是起抑制作用，且从NINO4到NINO1+2区抑制作用依次增强。
(3)在1997／1998 El Nino事件期间，西太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常西风和东太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常北风两者都与NINO3指数变化密切相关。将东、西太平洋暖池及异常北风、西风一并结合起来考虑，提出1997／1998 El Nino事件发生、发展的一种新的可能机制：异常西风激发东传的暖Kelvin波对东太平洋的冷上翻流有抑制作用，从而有利于东太平洋海表温度增加；异常西风驱动西太平洋暖池东端暖水向东伸展直接有利于东太平洋海表温度增加；东传的异常西风可以通过埃克曼漂流效应将赤道两侧的海表暖水向赤道辐合从而加强了赤道附近的下沉流，也有利于东太平洋赤道附近海表温度增加。几乎与此同时，北风距平通过产生北风吹流将东太平洋暖池暖水由北向南输送至赤道附近直接导致NINO3区海表温度增加。上述增温因素的叠加作用共同导致了1997／1998 El Nino事件迅速发生、异常强大。此外，还初步分析了1997／1998 El Nino事件期间异常西风、北风的来源。
(4)东太平洋暖池气候平均海表温度存在明显的季节变化特征且与El Nino事件春
季发生、夏季发展、秋季达到成熟及冬季衰亡的成长过程非常相似，同时结合对异
常经向风的分析结果，提出了东太平洋暖池及经向风异常对ENSO事件发生。发展
作用的概念模型：北风距平爆发通过产生北风吹洋流的作用将东太平洋暖池暖水由
北向南输送至赤道附近从而有利于NINO3区海表温度上升，与此同时，东太平洋暖
池赤道上异常经向风辐合不仅能导致北来的暖水在赤道附近堆积而且辐合的风场对
赤道附近的冷上翻流有抑制作用，从而有利于NffeO3区海表温度的增加，上述增温
因素都有利于（不利于）EI Nino事件（La Nina）事件的发生、发展。因此，将东
太平洋暖池及异常经向风和西太平洋暖池及异常西风一并结合起来考虑，则对
EI Nino事件成因机制作了进一步完善。进一步分析表明，东太平洋暖池及异常经向
风仅对日 Nino（La Nina）事件发生、发展起促进（抑制）作用而不起决定作用。
此外，对 80、90年代日 Nino事件的特性差异进行了初步分析。
（5）数值试验结果表明，改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖池区气候平均海表温度。
经向洋流、经向风及异常经向洋流、经向风对ZCW耦合模式预报ENSO事件的能
力能产生不同的影响。进一步结合 1997／1998 EI Nino事件对东太平洋暖池区海、气
状况进行数值试验发现，改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖地区气候平均海表温度能
对 ZCW耦合模式预报 1997／1998 EI Nino事件能力产生显著的影响，而分别改变该
区气候平均北经向洋流、北经向风则对耦合模式预报该暖事件的能力几乎没有影响：
改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖地区北经向洋流距平能明显地改变ZCW耦合模式
在发展阶段之前对 1997／1998 EI Nino事件的预报效果，而在各个阶段改变东太平洋
暖池区经向北风距平都能明显改变耦合模式对该暖事件强度的预报效果，甚至能影
响耦合模式提前成功预报出该暖事件的起始时间。数值试验结果间接验证了基于观
测资料分析所得到的结论：东太平洋暖池及北风异常二者对 1997／1998 EI Nino事件
发生、发展起重要的促进作用。
（6）利用Wears关于计算潜热加热的参数化方案替代ZCW耦合模式的大气模式中
的?
Using 925hPa NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data to replace FSU wind data improves initialization impact wind field of Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model (hereafter referred to as ZC coupled model). Subsequently, 1997/1998 El Nino is analyzed on the base of simulated and observed data, and a new possible mechanism for the evolution of the 1997/1998 El Nino is advanced. Then genesis mechanism for ENSO is perfected further. At last, the parameterization scheme for latent heat calculation included in atmosphere model of ZC coupled model with revised initialization impact wind is modified. The results are as follows:
(1) The 925hPa NECP/NCAR reanalysis wind stress anomaly (hereafter referred to as NECP wind stress anomaly) is more fit to observed SSTA than the FSU wind stress anomaly both in 1980s and in 1990s. Employing the former to take the place of the latter as the initialization impact wind not only make the ZC ocean model have a better skill, especially in 1990s but also improve the forecast ability of the ZC coupled model, which can succeed in predicting 1997/1998 El Nino before 6 to 8 months. The ZC coupled model with the revised initialization impact wind (hereafter referred to as ZCW coupled model) is not clearly confronted with "spring forecast barrier" but has limited capability to forecast cold event.
(2) The thermodynamic analysis of 1997/1998 El Nino shows that in NINO4 the contribution of the zonal and the meridional advection to the SSTA increase are equivalent and both bigger than that of the vertical upwelling flow; in NINO3 the contribution of the meridional advection to SSTA increase is the most and the counterparts of the zonal advection and vertical upwelling flow are equivalent; in NINO 1+2 it is still the most that the contribution of the meridional advection to SSTA increase, and the counterpart of the zonal advection is less than that of the vertical upwelling flow. In a whole, the contribution of the meridional advection to the SSTA increase is the most and the counterparts of the zonal advection and upwelling flow are equivalent. From NINO4 to NINO 1+2 the contribution of the zonal advection to SSTA increase decreases approximately in such a way that the counterparts of the meridional advection and vertical upwelling flow increase. In the whole process the thermodynamic damping suppresses basically the SSTA increase, and the suppression becomes strong gradually.
(3) During the 1997/1998 El Nino we find western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) SST variation, abnormal west wind, eastern Pacific warm pool (EPWP) SST variation and abnormal north wind are associated with the NINO3 index change. Based on the EPWP and WPWP in conjunction with abnormal north and west wind, a new possible
iii
mechanism is provided for the evolution of the 1997/1998 El Nino. To be specific, the warm Kelvin wave propagating to east excited by the abnormal west wind can suppress the cold upwelling flow in the eastern Pacific, which, in turn, is favorable to the eastern Pacific SST increase; abnormal west wind can make the warm water of the WPWP east edge extend to east, which is conductive directly to eastern Pacific SST increase; the abnormal west wind propagating to east can make the sea surface warm water near two equatorial laterals converge to the equator by Ekman drifting, which, in rum, strengthens the downwelling flow near the equator, leading to eastern Pacific SST increase. Almost meanwhile, the north wind anomaly brings EPWP warm water to equatorial vicinity by producing north ocean flow, which causes directly NINO3 SST increase. As a result, such factors favoring to SST increase give rise to 1997/1998 El Nino quick occurrence and abnormal strength. Furthermore, the origins of abnormal west and north wind during the 1997/1998 El Nino are explored primarily.
(4) The EPWP climatologic SST has a clear intraseasonal variability, which is very similar to El Nino growth process, i.e., occurring in spring, developing in summer, maturing in autumn and decaying in winter. Based on the analysis of meri
(1)80、90年代925hPaNCEP／NCAR再分析风应力距平(以下简称NCEP风应力距平)较FSU风应力距平与观测的SSTA匹配更为合理。NCEP风应力距平不仅较FSU风应力距平对ZC海洋模式初始化的效果好，尤其在90年代更为显著，而且以NCEP风应力距平替代FSU风应力距平作为ZC耦合模式的初始强迫风场提高了该耦合模式的预报能力，可以提前6—8个月成功地预报出1997／1998 El Nino事件。改进初始强迫风场后的ZC耦合模式(以下简称ZCW耦合模式)没有表现出明显的“春季预报”障碍现象，但对冷事件的预报能力仍然有限。
(2)对1997／1998 El Nino事件进行热力诊断分析表明，NINO4区纬向平流项与经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献相当，且都大于垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献；NINO3区经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，纬向平流项与垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献相当；NINO1+2区，仍然是经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，而纬向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献小于垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献。总的看来，经向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献最大，纬向平流项与垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献相当。从NINO4区到NINO1+2区，纬向平流项对SSTA增加的贡献基本呈减小趋势，而经向平流项和垂直上翻流对SSTA增加的贡献却是呈上升趋势。在整个过程中热力阻尼项对SSTA变化基本都是起抑制作用，且从NINO4到NINO1+2区抑制作用依次增强。
(3)在1997／1998 El Nino事件期间，西太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常西风和东太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常北风两者都与NINO3指数变化密切相关。将东、西太平洋暖池及异常北风、西风一并结合起来考虑，提出1997／1998 El Nino事件发生、发展的一种新的可能机制：异常西风激发东传的暖Kelvin波对东太平洋的冷上翻流有抑制作用，从而有利于东太平洋海表温度增加；异常西风驱动西太平洋暖池东端暖水向东伸展直接有利于东太平洋海表温度增加；东传的异常西风可以通过埃克曼漂流效应将赤道两侧的海表暖水向赤道辐合从而加强了赤道附近的下沉流，也有利于东太平洋赤道附近海表温度增加。几乎与此同时，北风距平通过产生北风吹流将东太平洋暖池暖水由北向南输送至赤道附近直接导致NINO3区海表温度增加。上述增温因素的叠加作用共同导致了1997／1998 El Nino事件迅速发生、异常强大。此外，还初步分析了1997／1998 El Nino事件期间异常西风、北风的来源。
(4)东太平洋暖池气候平均海表温度存在明显的季节变化特征且与El Nino事件春
季发生、夏季发展、秋季达到成熟及冬季衰亡的成长过程非常相似，同时结合对异
常经向风的分析结果，提出了东太平洋暖池及经向风异常对ENSO事件发生。发展
作用的概念模型：北风距平爆发通过产生北风吹洋流的作用将东太平洋暖池暖水由
北向南输送至赤道附近从而有利于NINO3区海表温度上升，与此同时，东太平洋暖
池赤道上异常经向风辐合不仅能导致北来的暖水在赤道附近堆积而且辐合的风场对
赤道附近的冷上翻流有抑制作用，从而有利于NffeO3区海表温度的增加，上述增温
因素都有利于（不利于）EI Nino事件（La Nina）事件的发生、发展。因此，将东
太平洋暖池及异常经向风和西太平洋暖池及异常西风一并结合起来考虑，则对
EI Nino事件成因机制作了进一步完善。进一步分析表明，东太平洋暖池及异常经向
风仅对日 Nino（La Nina）事件发生、发展起促进（抑制）作用而不起决定作用。
此外，对 80、90年代日 Nino事件的特性差异进行了初步分析。
（5）数值试验结果表明，改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖池区气候平均海表温度。
经向洋流、经向风及异常经向洋流、经向风对ZCW耦合模式预报ENSO事件的能
力能产生不同的影响。进一步结合 1997／1998 EI Nino事件对东太平洋暖池区海、气
状况进行数值试验发现，改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖地区气候平均海表温度能
对 ZCW耦合模式预报 1997／1998 EI Nino事件能力产生显著的影响，而分别改变该
区气候平均北经向洋流、北经向风则对耦合模式预报该暖事件的能力几乎没有影响：
改变（去除、增加）东太平洋暖地区北经向洋流距平能明显地改变ZCW耦合模式
在发展阶段之前对 1997／1998 EI Nino事件的预报效果，而在各个阶段改变东太平洋
暖池区经向北风距平都能明显改变耦合模式对该暖事件强度的预报效果，甚至能影
响耦合模式提前成功预报出该暖事件的起始时间。数值试验结果间接验证了基于观
测资料分析所得到的结论：东太平洋暖池及北风异常二者对 1997／1998 EI Nino事件
发生、发展起重要的促进作用。
（6）利用Wears关于计算潜热加热的参数化方案替代ZCW耦合模式的大气模式中
的?
Using 925hPa NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data to replace FSU wind data improves initialization impact wind field of Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model (hereafter referred to as ZC coupled model). Subsequently, 1997/1998 El Nino is analyzed on the base of simulated and observed data, and a new possible mechanism for the evolution of the 1997/1998 El Nino is advanced. Then genesis mechanism for ENSO is perfected further. At last, the parameterization scheme for latent heat calculation included in atmosphere model of ZC coupled model with revised initialization impact wind is modified. The results are as follows:
(1) The 925hPa NECP/NCAR reanalysis wind stress anomaly (hereafter referred to as NECP wind stress anomaly) is more fit to observed SSTA than the FSU wind stress anomaly both in 1980s and in 1990s. Employing the former to take the place of the latter as the initialization impact wind not only make the ZC ocean model have a better skill, especially in 1990s but also improve the forecast ability of the ZC coupled model, which can succeed in predicting 1997/1998 El Nino before 6 to 8 months. The ZC coupled model with the revised initialization impact wind (hereafter referred to as ZCW coupled model) is not clearly confronted with "spring forecast barrier" but has limited capability to forecast cold event.
(2) The thermodynamic analysis of 1997/1998 El Nino shows that in NINO4 the contribution of the zonal and the meridional advection to the SSTA increase are equivalent and both bigger than that of the vertical upwelling flow; in NINO3 the contribution of the meridional advection to SSTA increase is the most and the counterparts of the zonal advection and vertical upwelling flow are equivalent; in NINO 1+2 it is still the most that the contribution of the meridional advection to SSTA increase, and the counterpart of the zonal advection is less than that of the vertical upwelling flow. In a whole, the contribution of the meridional advection to the SSTA increase is the most and the counterparts of the zonal advection and upwelling flow are equivalent. From NINO4 to NINO 1+2 the contribution of the zonal advection to SSTA increase decreases approximately in such a way that the counterparts of the meridional advection and vertical upwelling flow increase. In the whole process the thermodynamic damping suppresses basically the SSTA increase, and the suppression becomes strong gradually.
(3) During the 1997/1998 El Nino we find western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) SST variation, abnormal west wind, eastern Pacific warm pool (EPWP) SST variation and abnormal north wind are associated with the NINO3 index change. Based on the EPWP and WPWP in conjunction with abnormal north and west wind, a new possible
iii
mechanism is provided for the evolution of the 1997/1998 El Nino. To be specific, the warm Kelvin wave propagating to east excited by the abnormal west wind can suppress the cold upwelling flow in the eastern Pacific, which, in turn, is favorable to the eastern Pacific SST increase; abnormal west wind can make the warm water of the WPWP east edge extend to east, which is conductive directly to eastern Pacific SST increase; the abnormal west wind propagating to east can make the sea surface warm water near two equatorial laterals converge to the equator by Ekman drifting, which, in rum, strengthens the downwelling flow near the equator, leading to eastern Pacific SST increase. Almost meanwhile, the north wind anomaly brings EPWP warm water to equatorial vicinity by producing north ocean flow, which causes directly NINO3 SST increase. As a result, such factors favoring to SST increase give rise to 1997/1998 El Nino quick occurrence and abnormal strength. Furthermore, the origins of abnormal west and north wind during the 1997/1998 El Nino are explored primarily.
(4) The EPWP climatologic SST has a clear intraseasonal variability, which is very similar to El Nino growth process, i.e., occurring in spring, developing in summer, maturing in autumn and decaying in winter. Based on the analysis of meri
引文
1 黄荣辉．ENSO及热带海-气相互作用动力学研究的新进展．大气科学，1990，14(2)：234-242．
2 李崇银，黄荣辉，杨大升等．近几年中国大气动力学的重要进展．气象学报，1995，53(3)：260-270．
3 黄荣辉，傅云飞，臧晓云．亚洲季风与ENSO循环的相互作用．气候与环境研究，1996，1(1)：38-54．
4 Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1987, 115: 2262-2278.
5 〈长期天气预报理论、方法和资料库建立研究〉项目编著．长期天气预报研究进展．北京：国家气象局，1991，268pp．
6 赵其庚，宋永加，彭淑英．对厄尔尼诺事件和海洋环流的数值模拟研究．应用气象学报，1997，8(增)：183-190．
7 张人禾．ENSO循环的形成机制及其模拟与预测研究进展．地球科学进展，1993，8(6)：50-56．
8 吴忠祥．国外海-气相互作用研究概况．气象科技，1989(3)：7-15．
9 Perigaud, C.,and B. Dewitte. El Nino-La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak's model and observed with satellite and in situ data. PartⅠ: Model data comparison. J. Climate, 1996, 9: 66-84.
10 巢纪平．厄尔尼诺和南方涛动动力学．北京：气象出版社，1993，241-255pp．
11 李清泉，丁一汇，赵宗慈．1991—1995年El Nino事件的数值模拟研究．应用气象学报，1997，8(增)：191-200．
12 赵其庚．海洋环流及海气耦合系统的数值模拟．北京：气象出版社，1997，182-185pp．
13 李清泉，赵宗慈．NCC简化海气模式的建立和数值模拟．气象学报，2000，58(增)：790-803．
14 Li Q.-Q., Z.-C. Zhao, and Y.-H. Ding, Prediction and verification of the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina by using an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Acta Meteorol. Sinica, 2001, 15(2): 144-159.
15 史丽，殷永红，倪允琪．全球简单海气耦合模式中的ENSO预报试验．大气科学，2001，25(5)：627-640．
16 Goswami, B.N., K. Rajendran, and D. Sengupta, Source of seasonality and scale dependence of predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon, Wea. Rev., 1997, 125: 846-858.
17 Dewitte, B., and C. Perigaud. El Nino-La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak's model and observed with satellite and in situ data. Part Ⅱ: Model forced with observations. J. Climate, 1996, 9:1188-1207.
18 An, S.-I., and B. Wang. Mechanisms of locking of the El Nino and La Nina mature phases to boreal winter. J. Climate, 2001, 14: 2164-2176.
19 Graham, N. E, and W. B, White. The role of the western boundary in the ENSO cycle: Experiments with coupled models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 1990, 20(12): 1935-1948.
20 Perigaud, C., S. E. Zebiak, F. Melin, J.-P. Boulanger, and B. Dewitte. On the role ofmeridional
wind anomalies in a coupled model of ENSO. J. Climate, 1997, 10: 761-773.
21 Tziperman, E., L., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane. Mechanisms of seasonal-ENSO interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 1997, 54: 61-71.
22 An, S.-I., F. F. Jin, and I.-S. Kang, The role of zonal advection feedback in phase transition and growth of ENSO in the Cane-Zebiak model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 1999, 77:1151-1159.
23 An, S.-I., and I.-S. Kang. Tropical Pacific basin-wide adjustment and oceanic waves. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(20): 3975-3978.
24 Wang, B., and S.-I. An. Why the properties of El Nino changed during the late 1970s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(19): 3709-3712.
25 Chung, C., and S. Nigam. Asian summer monsoon-ENSO feedback on the Cane-Zebiak model ENSO. J. Climate, 1999, 12:2787-2807
26 Wang, C., R. H. Weisberg, and J. I. Virmani. Western pacific interarnnual variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104:5131-5149.
27 Galanti, E. and E. Tziperman. ENSO's phase locking to the seasonal cycle in the fast-SST, fast-wave, and mixed-mode regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 2000, 57(9): 2936-2950.
28 Battisti, D. S.. Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1988, 45: 2889-2819.
29 Schopf, P. S., and M. J. Suarez. Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1988, 45: 549-566.
30 Zebiak, S. E.. Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J. Climate, 1993, 6: 1567-1586.
31 罗艳，姜达雍，刘屹岷．耦合海气动力学短期变率的数值研究．热带气象学报，1994，10(2)：97-106．
32 王志仁，姜达雍，包澄澜．一个区域耦合海气模式及其实验．海洋学报，1995，17(5)：50-58．
33 严帮良，黄荣辉，张人禾．一个可描写ENSO循环基本特点的简单热带海气耦合模式．大气科学，2002，26(2)：193-205．
34 谢倩，杨修群．热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO．大气科学，1996，20(5)：547-555．
35 倪允琪，S.E.Zebiak, M. A. Cane, L. Marx, J.Shukla. 混合海气耦合模式的研制和El Nino的预告试验．大气科学，1998，22(3)：265-273．
36 殷永红，史丽，倪允琪．CAMS／NJU全球热带海洋距平模式及其数值模拟．气象学报，2000，58(增)：778-789．
37 赵宗慈，李清泉，张勤等．ENSO年际变化预测研究预报初步意见．气候预测评论．国家气候中心主编与出版，1997，65-67．
38 李清泉，赵宗慈，张祖强等．简单海气耦合模式 1998年热带太平洋海温预报．气候预测评论．国家气候中心主编与出版，1998，83-84．
39 李清泉，伊兰，张勤等．简化的海气耦合模式对1999年热带太平洋海温预报．气候预测评论．
国家气候中心主编与出版，1999，73-76．
40 Wakata, Y.. On the instability problem in simple air-sea coupled models with an oceanic surface boundary layer. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 1989, 67: 313-324.
41 Tziperman, E., M. A. Cane, and S. Zebiak. Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an ENSO prediction model as explained by the quasi-periodicity route to chaos. J. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 50: 293-306.
42 Mantua, N. J., and D. S. Battisti. Aperiodic variability in the Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Air-sea interactions in the western equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 1995, 8: 2897-2927.
43 Ni, Y. Q.. Influence of interaction between low and middle latitudes on ENSO variability in the Cane-Zebiak model. Acta Meteorol. Sinica, 1996, 10:160-174.
44 Zhou, Z. X., and J. A. Carton. Latent heat flux and interannual variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. J. Atmos. Sci., 1998, 55: 494-501.
45 Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla. Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebiak model: A diagnostic study. J. Climate, 1993, 6: 628-638.
46 Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan. Experimental forecasts of El Nino. Nature, 1986, 321: 827-832.
47 Ballabrera-Poy, J., B.-P., A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde. Application of a reduced-order Kalman filter to initialize a coupled atmosphere -ocean model: Impact on the prediction of El Nino. J. Climate, 2001, 14: 1720-1737.
48 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak. The impact of NSCAT winds on predicting the 1997/1998 El Nino: A study with the Lamont model. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104:11321-11327.
49 Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla. Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1991, 4: 3-22.
50 Blumenthal, M. B.. Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1991, 4: 766-784.
51 Xue, Y., M. A. Cane , and S. E. Zebiak. Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part Ⅱ: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles, Mon. Wea. Rev., I997, 125: 2043-2056.
52 Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and B. Blumenthal, On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, Ser. A., 1994, 46:512-528.
53 Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane. Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1997, 125: 773-788.
54 Wang, C.. On the atmospheric responses to tropical Pacific heating during the mature phase of El Nino. J. Atmos. Sci., 2000, 57: 3767-3781.
55 Zebiak, S. E.. Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Nino. Mon. Wea. Rex,., 1986. 114: 1263-1271.
56 Gill, A. E.. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 1980, 106: 447-462.
57 钱维宏，王绍武，李立．ENSO预报模式及其改进．气候预测研究．王绍武主编．北京：气象出版社，1996，102-113．
58 钱维宏，李立，王绍武．改进Zebiak-Cane耦合模式的空间结构．大气科学，1998，22(3)：257-264．
59 Kleeman, R.. A simple model of the atmospheric response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 1991, 48: 3-18.
60 Kleeman, R.. On the dependence of hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1993, 6:2012-2033.
61 Seager, R., S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane. A model of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology. J. Geophys., Res., 1988, 93(C2): 1265-1280.
62 Kang, I.-S., and J.-S., Kug. An El Nino prediction system using an intermediate ocean and a statistical atmosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2000, 27(8): 1167-1170.
63 Kleeman, R., A. M. Moore, and N. R. Smith. Assimilation of subsurface thermal data into an intermediate tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1995, 123:3103-3113.
64 Kleeman, R.. Forecasts of Nino3 tropical Pacific SST using a low order coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model. NOAA Forecast Bulletin, 1995, 4(4): 13-14.
65 张祖强，赵宗慈．ENSO年际预测模式NCCn的研制．“九五”重中之重项目论文集，2000．
66 端义宏，梁旭东，李永平等．四维变分同化技术在优化Z-C预测模式初始场中的应用试验．气象学报，2000，58(5)：524-533．
67 端义宏，梁旭东，李永平．NNC／STI四维变分同化业务系统的建立和数值试验．气象学报，2000，58(增)：804-813．
68 梁旭东，端义宏，李永平．最优控制的集合预报技术及其在ENSO预测中的应用．气象学报，2000，58(增)：814-825．
69 钱维宏，王绍武．多时空尺度海气相互作用与Zebiak-Cane模式的改进．中国科学(D辑)，1997，27(6)：554-559．
70 杨修群，谢倩．ENSO循环的数值模拟Ⅰ：水平结构演变．气象学报．1996，54(1)：42-52．
71 Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi and M A. Cane. An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: implications for predictability. Science, 1995,269:1699-1702.
72 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S .E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan. The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/1998 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25: 2837-2840.
73 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, R. Canizares, and A. Kaplan. Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett, 2000, 27: 2585-2588.
74 Barnrtt, T. P., M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flugel, S. Pazan, and W. White. ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part Ⅰ: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with
a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model.J.Climate, 1993, 6: 1545-1566.
75 李崇银，穆明权．厄尔尼诺的发生与赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常．大气科学，1999，23(5)：513-521．
76 李崇银，穆明权．ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环．地球科学进展，2002，17(5)：631-638．
77 张祖强，丁一汇，赵宗慈．1997／1998年El Nino／La Nina期间洋流的演变特征和影响的分析．大气科学，2002，26(1)：127-141
78 巢纪平，袁绍宇，巢清尘，田纪纬．热带西太平洋暖池次表层暖水的起源—对1997／1998年ENSO事件的分析．大气科学，2003，27(2)：145-151．
79 黄荣辉，张人禾，严邦良．热带西太平洋纬向风异常对ENSO循环的动力作用．中国科学，2001，31(8)：697-704．
80 李崇银，尤振夏．热带大气季节内振荡的异常与1997年El Nino事件的发生．大气科学，2001，25(5)：589-595．
81 李清泉，赵宗慈．1997／1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验．热带气象学报，2001，17(4)：355-363．
82 瞿盘茂，郭艳君，李晓燕．1997／1998年ENSO过程与热带大气季节内振荡．2001，热带气象学报，17(1)：1-9．
83 Huang, R.-H., R.-H. Zhang, and Q.-Y. Zhang. The 1997/98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Adv. in Atmos. Sci., 2000, 17(3): 348-362.
84 张勤，丁一汇．NCC／NIM热带太平洋耦合模式对1990年代ENSO预测性能检验．气象学报，2000，58(增)：826-837．
85 McPhaden, M. J., and X. Yu. Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1999, 26(19): 2961-2964.
86 Davey, M. K., and D. L. T. Anderson. A comparison of the 1997/98 El Nino with other such events. Nature, 1998, 53(9): 295-302.
87 McPhaden, M. J.. Climate oscillations: Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino. Science, 1999, 283: 950-954.
88 Wang, C., and R. H. Weisberg. The 1997-98 El Nino evolution relative to previous El Nino events. J. Climate, 2000, 13: 488-501.
89 Yu L., and M. M. Rienecker. Evidence of an extratropical atmospheric influence during the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25(18): 3537-3540.
90 Boulanger, J.-P., and E. Durand. Role of non-linear oceanic processes in the response to westerly wind events: new implications for the 1997 El Nino onset. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(8): 1603-1606.
91 Delcroix, T., and coauthors. Equatorial waves and warm pool displacements during the 1992-1998 El Nino southern oscillation events: observation and modeling. J. Geophys. Res. 2000, 105(C11): 26045-26062.
92 McPhaden, M. J.. The child prodigy of 1997-98. Nature, 1999, 398: 559-562.
93 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden. Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Nino and La Nina. J. Climate, 2000, 13: 3551-3559.
94 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden. Warm water displacements in the equatorial Pacific during 1993-1999. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001,31: 1324-1345.
95 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden, and G. C. Johnson. Vertical velocities and transports in the equatorial Pacific during 1993-1999. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001, 31 (11): 3230-3248.
96 Jin, F.-F.. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. PartⅠ: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1997, 54: 811-829.
97 Vialard, J., C .Menkes, J.-P. Boulanger, P. Delecluse, E. Guilyardi, M. J. McPhaden, and G. Madec. A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting equatorial pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-1998 El Nino. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001, 31 (7): 1649-1675.
98 Boulanger, J.-P., and C. Menkes. Long equatorial wave reflection in the Pacific ocean during the 1992-1998 TOPEX/POSEIDO period. Clim. Dyn., 1999,15: 295-225.
99 Boulanger, J.-P., and C. Menkes. The Trident Pacific model. Part2: role of long equatorial wave reflection on sea surface temperature anomalies during the 1993-1998 TOPEX/POSEIDON period. Clim, Dyn., 2001, 17: 175-186.
100 Wang, W.-M., and J.M. Michanel. Surface layer temperature balance in the Equatorial pacific during the 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina. J.Clim., 2001, 14(16): 3393-3407.
101 Wang, C.-Z., and R. H. Weisberg. The 1997-98 El Nino evolution relative to previous El Nino events. J. Climate, 2000, 13 (1): 488-501.
102 Picaut, J., E. Hackert, A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde. Mechanisms of the 1997-1998 El Nino-La Nina, as inferred from space-based observations. J. Geophys. Res., 2002, 107(C5), 5: 1-20.
103 Kessler, W. S. Mean three-dimensional circulation in the northeast Tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2002, 32(9): 2457-2471.
104 Weare, B. C.. A simple model of the tropical atmosphere driven by a circulation dependent forcing. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1986, 112: 409-429.
105 Weare, B.C. A simple model of the Tropical atmosphere with circulation dependent heating and specific humidity. J. Atmos. Sci., 1986, 43(19): 2001-2016.
2 李崇银，黄荣辉，杨大升等．近几年中国大气动力学的重要进展．气象学报，1995，53(3)：260-270．
3 黄荣辉，傅云飞，臧晓云．亚洲季风与ENSO循环的相互作用．气候与环境研究，1996，1(1)：38-54．
4 Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1987, 115: 2262-2278.
5 〈长期天气预报理论、方法和资料库建立研究〉项目编著．长期天气预报研究进展．北京：国家气象局，1991，268pp．
6 赵其庚，宋永加，彭淑英．对厄尔尼诺事件和海洋环流的数值模拟研究．应用气象学报，1997，8(增)：183-190．
7 张人禾．ENSO循环的形成机制及其模拟与预测研究进展．地球科学进展，1993，8(6)：50-56．
8 吴忠祥．国外海-气相互作用研究概况．气象科技，1989(3)：7-15．
9 Perigaud, C.,and B. Dewitte. El Nino-La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak's model and observed with satellite and in situ data. PartⅠ: Model data comparison. J. Climate, 1996, 9: 66-84.
10 巢纪平．厄尔尼诺和南方涛动动力学．北京：气象出版社，1993，241-255pp．
11 李清泉，丁一汇，赵宗慈．1991—1995年El Nino事件的数值模拟研究．应用气象学报，1997，8(增)：191-200．
12 赵其庚．海洋环流及海气耦合系统的数值模拟．北京：气象出版社，1997，182-185pp．
13 李清泉，赵宗慈．NCC简化海气模式的建立和数值模拟．气象学报，2000，58(增)：790-803．
14 Li Q.-Q., Z.-C. Zhao, and Y.-H. Ding, Prediction and verification of the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina by using an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Acta Meteorol. Sinica, 2001, 15(2): 144-159.
15 史丽，殷永红，倪允琪．全球简单海气耦合模式中的ENSO预报试验．大气科学，2001，25(5)：627-640．
16 Goswami, B.N., K. Rajendran, and D. Sengupta, Source of seasonality and scale dependence of predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon, Wea. Rev., 1997, 125: 846-858.
17 Dewitte, B., and C. Perigaud. El Nino-La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak's model and observed with satellite and in situ data. Part Ⅱ: Model forced with observations. J. Climate, 1996, 9:1188-1207.
18 An, S.-I., and B. Wang. Mechanisms of locking of the El Nino and La Nina mature phases to boreal winter. J. Climate, 2001, 14: 2164-2176.
19 Graham, N. E, and W. B, White. The role of the western boundary in the ENSO cycle: Experiments with coupled models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 1990, 20(12): 1935-1948.
20 Perigaud, C., S. E. Zebiak, F. Melin, J.-P. Boulanger, and B. Dewitte. On the role ofmeridional
wind anomalies in a coupled model of ENSO. J. Climate, 1997, 10: 761-773.
21 Tziperman, E., L., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane. Mechanisms of seasonal-ENSO interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 1997, 54: 61-71.
22 An, S.-I., F. F. Jin, and I.-S. Kang, The role of zonal advection feedback in phase transition and growth of ENSO in the Cane-Zebiak model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 1999, 77:1151-1159.
23 An, S.-I., and I.-S. Kang. Tropical Pacific basin-wide adjustment and oceanic waves. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(20): 3975-3978.
24 Wang, B., and S.-I. An. Why the properties of El Nino changed during the late 1970s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(19): 3709-3712.
25 Chung, C., and S. Nigam. Asian summer monsoon-ENSO feedback on the Cane-Zebiak model ENSO. J. Climate, 1999, 12:2787-2807
26 Wang, C., R. H. Weisberg, and J. I. Virmani. Western pacific interarnnual variability associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104:5131-5149.
27 Galanti, E. and E. Tziperman. ENSO's phase locking to the seasonal cycle in the fast-SST, fast-wave, and mixed-mode regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 2000, 57(9): 2936-2950.
28 Battisti, D. S.. Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1988, 45: 2889-2819.
29 Schopf, P. S., and M. J. Suarez. Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1988, 45: 549-566.
30 Zebiak, S. E.. Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J. Climate, 1993, 6: 1567-1586.
31 罗艳，姜达雍，刘屹岷．耦合海气动力学短期变率的数值研究．热带气象学报，1994，10(2)：97-106．
32 王志仁，姜达雍，包澄澜．一个区域耦合海气模式及其实验．海洋学报，1995，17(5)：50-58．
33 严帮良，黄荣辉，张人禾．一个可描写ENSO循环基本特点的简单热带海气耦合模式．大气科学，2002，26(2)：193-205．
34 谢倩，杨修群．热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO．大气科学，1996，20(5)：547-555．
35 倪允琪，S.E.Zebiak, M. A. Cane, L. Marx, J.Shukla. 混合海气耦合模式的研制和El Nino的预告试验．大气科学，1998，22(3)：265-273．
36 殷永红，史丽，倪允琪．CAMS／NJU全球热带海洋距平模式及其数值模拟．气象学报，2000，58(增)：778-789．
37 赵宗慈，李清泉，张勤等．ENSO年际变化预测研究预报初步意见．气候预测评论．国家气候中心主编与出版，1997，65-67．
38 李清泉，赵宗慈，张祖强等．简单海气耦合模式 1998年热带太平洋海温预报．气候预测评论．国家气候中心主编与出版，1998，83-84．
39 李清泉，伊兰，张勤等．简化的海气耦合模式对1999年热带太平洋海温预报．气候预测评论．
国家气候中心主编与出版，1999，73-76．
40 Wakata, Y.. On the instability problem in simple air-sea coupled models with an oceanic surface boundary layer. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 1989, 67: 313-324.
41 Tziperman, E., M. A. Cane, and S. Zebiak. Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an ENSO prediction model as explained by the quasi-periodicity route to chaos. J. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 50: 293-306.
42 Mantua, N. J., and D. S. Battisti. Aperiodic variability in the Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Air-sea interactions in the western equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 1995, 8: 2897-2927.
43 Ni, Y. Q.. Influence of interaction between low and middle latitudes on ENSO variability in the Cane-Zebiak model. Acta Meteorol. Sinica, 1996, 10:160-174.
44 Zhou, Z. X., and J. A. Carton. Latent heat flux and interannual variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. J. Atmos. Sci., 1998, 55: 494-501.
45 Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla. Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebiak model: A diagnostic study. J. Climate, 1993, 6: 628-638.
46 Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan. Experimental forecasts of El Nino. Nature, 1986, 321: 827-832.
47 Ballabrera-Poy, J., B.-P., A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde. Application of a reduced-order Kalman filter to initialize a coupled atmosphere -ocean model: Impact on the prediction of El Nino. J. Climate, 2001, 14: 1720-1737.
48 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak. The impact of NSCAT winds on predicting the 1997/1998 El Nino: A study with the Lamont model. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104:11321-11327.
49 Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla. Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1991, 4: 3-22.
50 Blumenthal, M. B.. Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1991, 4: 766-784.
51 Xue, Y., M. A. Cane , and S. E. Zebiak. Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part Ⅱ: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles, Mon. Wea. Rev., I997, 125: 2043-2056.
52 Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and B. Blumenthal, On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, Ser. A., 1994, 46:512-528.
53 Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane. Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1997, 125: 773-788.
54 Wang, C.. On the atmospheric responses to tropical Pacific heating during the mature phase of El Nino. J. Atmos. Sci., 2000, 57: 3767-3781.
55 Zebiak, S. E.. Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Nino. Mon. Wea. Rex,., 1986. 114: 1263-1271.
56 Gill, A. E.. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 1980, 106: 447-462.
57 钱维宏，王绍武，李立．ENSO预报模式及其改进．气候预测研究．王绍武主编．北京：气象出版社，1996，102-113．
58 钱维宏，李立，王绍武．改进Zebiak-Cane耦合模式的空间结构．大气科学，1998，22(3)：257-264．
59 Kleeman, R.. A simple model of the atmospheric response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 1991, 48: 3-18.
60 Kleeman, R.. On the dependence of hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1993, 6:2012-2033.
61 Seager, R., S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane. A model of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology. J. Geophys., Res., 1988, 93(C2): 1265-1280.
62 Kang, I.-S., and J.-S., Kug. An El Nino prediction system using an intermediate ocean and a statistical atmosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2000, 27(8): 1167-1170.
63 Kleeman, R., A. M. Moore, and N. R. Smith. Assimilation of subsurface thermal data into an intermediate tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1995, 123:3103-3113.
64 Kleeman, R.. Forecasts of Nino3 tropical Pacific SST using a low order coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model. NOAA Forecast Bulletin, 1995, 4(4): 13-14.
65 张祖强，赵宗慈．ENSO年际预测模式NCCn的研制．“九五”重中之重项目论文集，2000．
66 端义宏，梁旭东，李永平等．四维变分同化技术在优化Z-C预测模式初始场中的应用试验．气象学报，2000，58(5)：524-533．
67 端义宏，梁旭东，李永平．NNC／STI四维变分同化业务系统的建立和数值试验．气象学报，2000，58(增)：804-813．
68 梁旭东，端义宏，李永平．最优控制的集合预报技术及其在ENSO预测中的应用．气象学报，2000，58(增)：814-825．
69 钱维宏，王绍武．多时空尺度海气相互作用与Zebiak-Cane模式的改进．中国科学(D辑)，1997，27(6)：554-559．
70 杨修群，谢倩．ENSO循环的数值模拟Ⅰ：水平结构演变．气象学报．1996，54(1)：42-52．
71 Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi and M A. Cane. An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: implications for predictability. Science, 1995,269:1699-1702.
72 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S .E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan. The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/1998 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25: 2837-2840.
73 Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, R. Canizares, and A. Kaplan. Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett, 2000, 27: 2585-2588.
74 Barnrtt, T. P., M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flugel, S. Pazan, and W. White. ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part Ⅰ: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with
a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model.J.Climate, 1993, 6: 1545-1566.
75 李崇银，穆明权．厄尔尼诺的发生与赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常．大气科学，1999，23(5)：513-521．
76 李崇银，穆明权．ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环．地球科学进展，2002，17(5)：631-638．
77 张祖强，丁一汇，赵宗慈．1997／1998年El Nino／La Nina期间洋流的演变特征和影响的分析．大气科学，2002，26(1)：127-141
78 巢纪平，袁绍宇，巢清尘，田纪纬．热带西太平洋暖池次表层暖水的起源—对1997／1998年ENSO事件的分析．大气科学，2003，27(2)：145-151．
79 黄荣辉，张人禾，严邦良．热带西太平洋纬向风异常对ENSO循环的动力作用．中国科学，2001，31(8)：697-704．
80 李崇银，尤振夏．热带大气季节内振荡的异常与1997年El Nino事件的发生．大气科学，2001，25(5)：589-595．
81 李清泉，赵宗慈．1997／1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验．热带气象学报，2001，17(4)：355-363．
82 瞿盘茂，郭艳君，李晓燕．1997／1998年ENSO过程与热带大气季节内振荡．2001，热带气象学报，17(1)：1-9．
83 Huang, R.-H., R.-H. Zhang, and Q.-Y. Zhang. The 1997/98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Adv. in Atmos. Sci., 2000, 17(3): 348-362.
84 张勤，丁一汇．NCC／NIM热带太平洋耦合模式对1990年代ENSO预测性能检验．气象学报，2000，58(增)：826-837．
85 McPhaden, M. J., and X. Yu. Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1999, 26(19): 2961-2964.
86 Davey, M. K., and D. L. T. Anderson. A comparison of the 1997/98 El Nino with other such events. Nature, 1998, 53(9): 295-302.
87 McPhaden, M. J.. Climate oscillations: Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino. Science, 1999, 283: 950-954.
88 Wang, C., and R. H. Weisberg. The 1997-98 El Nino evolution relative to previous El Nino events. J. Climate, 2000, 13: 488-501.
89 Yu L., and M. M. Rienecker. Evidence of an extratropical atmospheric influence during the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 1998, 25(18): 3537-3540.
90 Boulanger, J.-P., and E. Durand. Role of non-linear oceanic processes in the response to westerly wind events: new implications for the 1997 El Nino onset. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2001, 28(8): 1603-1606.
91 Delcroix, T., and coauthors. Equatorial waves and warm pool displacements during the 1992-1998 El Nino southern oscillation events: observation and modeling. J. Geophys. Res. 2000, 105(C11): 26045-26062.
92 McPhaden, M. J.. The child prodigy of 1997-98. Nature, 1999, 398: 559-562.
93 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden. Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Nino and La Nina. J. Climate, 2000, 13: 3551-3559.
94 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden. Warm water displacements in the equatorial Pacific during 1993-1999. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001,31: 1324-1345.
95 Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden, and G. C. Johnson. Vertical velocities and transports in the equatorial Pacific during 1993-1999. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001, 31 (11): 3230-3248.
96 Jin, F.-F.. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. PartⅠ: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1997, 54: 811-829.
97 Vialard, J., C .Menkes, J.-P. Boulanger, P. Delecluse, E. Guilyardi, M. J. McPhaden, and G. Madec. A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting equatorial pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-1998 El Nino. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001, 31 (7): 1649-1675.
98 Boulanger, J.-P., and C. Menkes. Long equatorial wave reflection in the Pacific ocean during the 1992-1998 TOPEX/POSEIDO period. Clim. Dyn., 1999,15: 295-225.
99 Boulanger, J.-P., and C. Menkes. The Trident Pacific model. Part2: role of long equatorial wave reflection on sea surface temperature anomalies during the 1993-1998 TOPEX/POSEIDON period. Clim, Dyn., 2001, 17: 175-186.
100 Wang, W.-M., and J.M. Michanel. Surface layer temperature balance in the Equatorial pacific during the 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina. J.Clim., 2001, 14(16): 3393-3407.
101 Wang, C.-Z., and R. H. Weisberg. The 1997-98 El Nino evolution relative to previous El Nino events. J. Climate, 2000, 13 (1): 488-501.
102 Picaut, J., E. Hackert, A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde. Mechanisms of the 1997-1998 El Nino-La Nina, as inferred from space-based observations. J. Geophys. Res., 2002, 107(C5), 5: 1-20.
103 Kessler, W. S. Mean three-dimensional circulation in the northeast Tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2002, 32(9): 2457-2471.
104 Weare, B. C.. A simple model of the tropical atmosphere driven by a circulation dependent forcing. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1986, 112: 409-429.
105 Weare, B.C. A simple model of the Tropical atmosphere with circulation dependent heating and specific humidity. J. Atmos. Sci., 1986, 43(19): 2001-2016.