基于稳定性的供应链运作机制研究
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摘要
供应链作为一个由多成员企业组成的合作联盟,保持其稳定的运作状态,能够发挥其最大的效用。由于供应链是一个虚拟的组织,每个成员都是独立的实体,都有自身利益的诉求,不同的经营理念、价值取向及有限理性边界等,常会导致企业个体行为与供应链整体目标的冲突,从而影响供应链的稳定运行。因此,研究在供应链运作过程中建立健全有效的运作机制,促进整个供应链系统的稳定运行,对于提高供应链整体的运营效率、竞争能力和获利水平具有重要的影响。
本文在查阅大量国内外文献资料和已有研究成果的基础上,选择从供应链系统稳定运行的角度来研究供应链的多种有效运行机制,试图通过对供应链系统内在运行机制的健全与完善,促使供应链中的合作各方在供应链运作中选择一种最有利于整个供应链发展的相互合作行为,来建立一种友好合作关系,实现供应链运作稳定性的动态平衡。主要研究内容如下:
1.供应链运作稳定性的影响机理研究。通过对供应链运作稳定性概念的界定,运用相关的理论分析供应链运作稳定性的影响因素,建立了供应链运作稳定性影响的概念模型;重点分析了不确定性因素、供应链风险以及其他因素对供应链运作稳定性的具体影响。
2.基于稳定性的供应链运作信任机制,主要从三个角度研究:一是采用博弈理论分析了供应链合作伙伴的信任博弈过程,研究了供应链企业的信任形成机制的构建,它由信任建立的过程机制、特征机制与制度机制三个层面所构成,据此提出了供应链信任形成机制模型。二是建立了契约设计的相关模型,分别讨论了基于统一契约设计和不同契约设计条件下,契约对企业行为的影响。契约设计是防范供应链信任危机的制度基础,其目的在于抑制企业的道德风险,促使企业产生可信行为。三是讨论了供应链信任机制的维护要素与建立途径,构建了供应链信任机制的实现过程模型。
3.在供应链运作的合作机制研究中,首先建立了供应链合作关系的影响因素模型和基于稳定性的供应链合作关系构成要素指标体系。重点研究了供应链合作伙伴选择对供应链运作稳定性的影响。讨论了节点企业可能产生的两种冲突模式,即社会虚度效应和背信弃义行为对供应链运作稳定性的影响。其次构建了供应链合作伙伴综合评价指标体系,建立了一种将熵权与TOPSIS法相结合的供应商选择评价模型。该模型能够有效地避免在传统评价方法中存在的主观因素影响,对供应商作出全面、具体和客观的评价。
4.供应链运作中的利益分配与激励监督机制的研究,一是对供应链企业的利益分配进行了博弈分析,讨论了供应链成员利益分配管理的两个模型:基于资源与贡献率的一般分配模型和Shapley值法收益分配模型。二是探讨了供应链激励与监督机制的设计问题,提出了防范供应链“道德风险”的负激励模型和供应链监督机制模型,这两种模型分别从不同的角度通过对违约行为的处罚来达到对“道德风险”的抑制与监督的目的。
5.在供应链信息协调机制的研究中,首先详细分析了信息协调对供应链运作稳定性的影响,在此基础上,对供应链共享信息资源的构成、信息共享模式以及信息共享平台的构建进行了具体的研究。其次,为减少需求信息扭曲的影响,论文尝试采用一种线性回归预测模型对供应链上各节点企业的需求进行预测,通过制定相应的订货或生产决策,达到控制或减少供应链牛鞭效应,提高供应链敏捷性,降低供应链成本的目的。通过仿真模拟,表明该方法能很好地抑制牛鞭效应影响。
6.论文选取与供应链运作稳定性有关的信任、合作、利益分配、信息协调机制中的若干关键性指标,综合考虑其他因素,构建了供应链运作稳定性的综合评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析法和基于模糊集理论的二元对比排序法,分别对其中的定量与定性指标进行筛选,以此确定对供应链运作稳定性有重要影响的关键指标;通过构建一个基于两级的模糊综合评判模型,来对供应链的运作稳定性状况进行评价。
Supply chain, as a cooperative alliance consisting of many member enterprises, can play the best utility while maintaining the stability of its operation condition. Supply chain is a virtual organization in which each member is an independent entity with different interests, different business philosophies, different value orientation and limited rational boundary and so on. So, it often leads to a conflict between individual behavior and overall goal of the supply chain, which will affect the stability of the supply chain operation. Therefore, in order to promote the operational stability of the whole supply chain system, the research on establishing and perfecting the operation mechanism during the operation process of supply chain is of great influence on enhancing the overall operating efficiency, competition ability and the profit level of the supply chain.
On the basis of informed research and consultation of a large number of domestic and foreign literature, in order to establish a friendly and cooperative relationship and achieve a dynamic balance of the stability of the supply chain operation, this paper studies all kinds of effective operational mechanism of supply chain in terms of stable operation of the supply chain system, and attempts to promote the cooperative parties in the supply chain operation, through improving and perfecting the internal operational mechanism of the supply chain system, to select a cooperative behavior which is the most beneficial to the development of whole supply chain . The main work of this paper can be summarized as follows:
1. Influence mechanism of the stability of the supply chain operation was studied. A conceptual model of the influence of stability of the supply chain operation was set up by using the theories related and defining the concept of the stability of the supply chain operation and analyzing factors influencing the stability of the supply chain operation. Concrete influence of uncertainties, risk of the supply chain, as well as other factors on the stability of the supply chain operation was analyzed selectively.
2.Trust mechanism of the supply chain based on stability was studied from three points of view: Firstly, the process of trust game of cooperative partners was analyzed by using the game theory also the construction of trust-forming mechanism of the supply chain enterprises was researched. It is constituted of the process mechanism, the characteristic mechanism and the institution mechanisms of trust-building, according to which a trust-forming mechanism model of the supply chain was proposed. Secondly, related models of contract design were established, and the impact on corporate behavior based on a unified contract design and the design of different contract was discussed respectively. The institutional basis of preventing trust crises of the supply chain is the design of the contract. And the contract design aimed to inhibit enterprises from moral hazard and promote a credible business conduct. Thirdly, elements of maintaining supply chain trust mechanism and approaches to build supply chain trust mechanism were discussed and a model of implementation process of the supply chain trust mechanism was constructed.
3. In the research of cooperation mechanism of the supply chain operation, the model of the influence factors of the supply chain cooperative relationship and the index system of the ingredients of the supply chain cooperative relationship based on the stability were established in the first place. Effect of the selection of the supply chain partner on the stability of the supply chain operation was mainly focused on. Two possible kinds of conflict modes produced by the node enterprise were discussed, namely the effect of the social behavior of waste and treachery on the stability of the supply chain operation. In the second place, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the supply chain members was constructed. And an evaluation model of supplier selection that combining entropy and TOPSIS was established. This model can effectively avoid the subjective factors existing in traditional evaluation method, and evaluate the suppliers comprehensively, concretely and objectively.
4. The interest's distribution as well as the encourage mechanism and supervision mechanism during the operation of the supply chain were studied. For one thing, the interest's distribution of the supply chain enterprises was analyzed using the game theory. Two models about interest's distribution and management of the supply chain members were discussed: the general distribution model based on resources and the contribution rate and the revenue sharing model of the Shapley value. For another thing, problems of the design of the supply chain encourage mechanism and supervision mechanism were discussed, and a negative incentive model as well as a supervision mechanism of the supply chain model were put forward to prevent the supply chain from moral hazard. And the two models took effect from different points by penalizing the nonperformance of the contract..
5. In the study of information coordination mechanism of the supply chain, firstly, the effect of the information coordination on the stability of the supply chain operation was detailed analyzed, on the basis of which the constitution of the information sharing resources, models of information sharing as well as construction of the information sharing platform in the supply chain were then researched in detail. Secondly, in order to reduce the influence of distortion of the demand information, the thesis attempted to use a linear regression forecast model to predict the needs of all enterprises in the supply chain nodes by decision-making of the production or making corresponding orders .The model could control and reduce the bullwhip effect in the supply chain, improve supply chain agility and reduce the cost of the supply chain. And the simulation of the model has showed that the method could inhibit the impact of bullwhip effect well.
6. By selecting several key indicators among the trust, cooperation, interest's distribution, and information coordination mechanisms related to the stability of the supply chain operation and taking other factors into comprehensive consideration, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the stability of the supply chain operation was constructed, in which the quantitative and qualitative indexes were screened respectively, by using PCA (principal component analysis) and compositor method of binary comparison based on fuzzy set theory, in order to determine the key indexes that greatly influenced the stability of the supply chain operation. And a model of FCE (fuzzy comprehensive evaluation) based on two-stage was constructed to assess the stability of the supply chain operation.
本文在查阅大量国内外文献资料和已有研究成果的基础上,选择从供应链系统稳定运行的角度来研究供应链的多种有效运行机制,试图通过对供应链系统内在运行机制的健全与完善,促使供应链中的合作各方在供应链运作中选择一种最有利于整个供应链发展的相互合作行为,来建立一种友好合作关系,实现供应链运作稳定性的动态平衡。主要研究内容如下:
1.供应链运作稳定性的影响机理研究。通过对供应链运作稳定性概念的界定,运用相关的理论分析供应链运作稳定性的影响因素,建立了供应链运作稳定性影响的概念模型;重点分析了不确定性因素、供应链风险以及其他因素对供应链运作稳定性的具体影响。
2.基于稳定性的供应链运作信任机制,主要从三个角度研究:一是采用博弈理论分析了供应链合作伙伴的信任博弈过程,研究了供应链企业的信任形成机制的构建,它由信任建立的过程机制、特征机制与制度机制三个层面所构成,据此提出了供应链信任形成机制模型。二是建立了契约设计的相关模型,分别讨论了基于统一契约设计和不同契约设计条件下,契约对企业行为的影响。契约设计是防范供应链信任危机的制度基础,其目的在于抑制企业的道德风险,促使企业产生可信行为。三是讨论了供应链信任机制的维护要素与建立途径,构建了供应链信任机制的实现过程模型。
3.在供应链运作的合作机制研究中,首先建立了供应链合作关系的影响因素模型和基于稳定性的供应链合作关系构成要素指标体系。重点研究了供应链合作伙伴选择对供应链运作稳定性的影响。讨论了节点企业可能产生的两种冲突模式,即社会虚度效应和背信弃义行为对供应链运作稳定性的影响。其次构建了供应链合作伙伴综合评价指标体系,建立了一种将熵权与TOPSIS法相结合的供应商选择评价模型。该模型能够有效地避免在传统评价方法中存在的主观因素影响,对供应商作出全面、具体和客观的评价。
4.供应链运作中的利益分配与激励监督机制的研究,一是对供应链企业的利益分配进行了博弈分析,讨论了供应链成员利益分配管理的两个模型:基于资源与贡献率的一般分配模型和Shapley值法收益分配模型。二是探讨了供应链激励与监督机制的设计问题,提出了防范供应链“道德风险”的负激励模型和供应链监督机制模型,这两种模型分别从不同的角度通过对违约行为的处罚来达到对“道德风险”的抑制与监督的目的。
5.在供应链信息协调机制的研究中,首先详细分析了信息协调对供应链运作稳定性的影响,在此基础上,对供应链共享信息资源的构成、信息共享模式以及信息共享平台的构建进行了具体的研究。其次,为减少需求信息扭曲的影响,论文尝试采用一种线性回归预测模型对供应链上各节点企业的需求进行预测,通过制定相应的订货或生产决策,达到控制或减少供应链牛鞭效应,提高供应链敏捷性,降低供应链成本的目的。通过仿真模拟,表明该方法能很好地抑制牛鞭效应影响。
6.论文选取与供应链运作稳定性有关的信任、合作、利益分配、信息协调机制中的若干关键性指标,综合考虑其他因素,构建了供应链运作稳定性的综合评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析法和基于模糊集理论的二元对比排序法,分别对其中的定量与定性指标进行筛选,以此确定对供应链运作稳定性有重要影响的关键指标;通过构建一个基于两级的模糊综合评判模型,来对供应链的运作稳定性状况进行评价。
Supply chain, as a cooperative alliance consisting of many member enterprises, can play the best utility while maintaining the stability of its operation condition. Supply chain is a virtual organization in which each member is an independent entity with different interests, different business philosophies, different value orientation and limited rational boundary and so on. So, it often leads to a conflict between individual behavior and overall goal of the supply chain, which will affect the stability of the supply chain operation. Therefore, in order to promote the operational stability of the whole supply chain system, the research on establishing and perfecting the operation mechanism during the operation process of supply chain is of great influence on enhancing the overall operating efficiency, competition ability and the profit level of the supply chain.
On the basis of informed research and consultation of a large number of domestic and foreign literature, in order to establish a friendly and cooperative relationship and achieve a dynamic balance of the stability of the supply chain operation, this paper studies all kinds of effective operational mechanism of supply chain in terms of stable operation of the supply chain system, and attempts to promote the cooperative parties in the supply chain operation, through improving and perfecting the internal operational mechanism of the supply chain system, to select a cooperative behavior which is the most beneficial to the development of whole supply chain . The main work of this paper can be summarized as follows:
1. Influence mechanism of the stability of the supply chain operation was studied. A conceptual model of the influence of stability of the supply chain operation was set up by using the theories related and defining the concept of the stability of the supply chain operation and analyzing factors influencing the stability of the supply chain operation. Concrete influence of uncertainties, risk of the supply chain, as well as other factors on the stability of the supply chain operation was analyzed selectively.
2.Trust mechanism of the supply chain based on stability was studied from three points of view: Firstly, the process of trust game of cooperative partners was analyzed by using the game theory also the construction of trust-forming mechanism of the supply chain enterprises was researched. It is constituted of the process mechanism, the characteristic mechanism and the institution mechanisms of trust-building, according to which a trust-forming mechanism model of the supply chain was proposed. Secondly, related models of contract design were established, and the impact on corporate behavior based on a unified contract design and the design of different contract was discussed respectively. The institutional basis of preventing trust crises of the supply chain is the design of the contract. And the contract design aimed to inhibit enterprises from moral hazard and promote a credible business conduct. Thirdly, elements of maintaining supply chain trust mechanism and approaches to build supply chain trust mechanism were discussed and a model of implementation process of the supply chain trust mechanism was constructed.
3. In the research of cooperation mechanism of the supply chain operation, the model of the influence factors of the supply chain cooperative relationship and the index system of the ingredients of the supply chain cooperative relationship based on the stability were established in the first place. Effect of the selection of the supply chain partner on the stability of the supply chain operation was mainly focused on. Two possible kinds of conflict modes produced by the node enterprise were discussed, namely the effect of the social behavior of waste and treachery on the stability of the supply chain operation. In the second place, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the supply chain members was constructed. And an evaluation model of supplier selection that combining entropy and TOPSIS was established. This model can effectively avoid the subjective factors existing in traditional evaluation method, and evaluate the suppliers comprehensively, concretely and objectively.
4. The interest's distribution as well as the encourage mechanism and supervision mechanism during the operation of the supply chain were studied. For one thing, the interest's distribution of the supply chain enterprises was analyzed using the game theory. Two models about interest's distribution and management of the supply chain members were discussed: the general distribution model based on resources and the contribution rate and the revenue sharing model of the Shapley value. For another thing, problems of the design of the supply chain encourage mechanism and supervision mechanism were discussed, and a negative incentive model as well as a supervision mechanism of the supply chain model were put forward to prevent the supply chain from moral hazard. And the two models took effect from different points by penalizing the nonperformance of the contract..
5. In the study of information coordination mechanism of the supply chain, firstly, the effect of the information coordination on the stability of the supply chain operation was detailed analyzed, on the basis of which the constitution of the information sharing resources, models of information sharing as well as construction of the information sharing platform in the supply chain were then researched in detail. Secondly, in order to reduce the influence of distortion of the demand information, the thesis attempted to use a linear regression forecast model to predict the needs of all enterprises in the supply chain nodes by decision-making of the production or making corresponding orders .The model could control and reduce the bullwhip effect in the supply chain, improve supply chain agility and reduce the cost of the supply chain. And the simulation of the model has showed that the method could inhibit the impact of bullwhip effect well.
6. By selecting several key indicators among the trust, cooperation, interest's distribution, and information coordination mechanisms related to the stability of the supply chain operation and taking other factors into comprehensive consideration, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the stability of the supply chain operation was constructed, in which the quantitative and qualitative indexes were screened respectively, by using PCA (principal component analysis) and compositor method of binary comparison based on fuzzy set theory, in order to determine the key indexes that greatly influenced the stability of the supply chain operation. And a model of FCE (fuzzy comprehensive evaluation) based on two-stage was constructed to assess the stability of the supply chain operation.
引文
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