引入参照点的旅行时间价值分析
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摘要
摘要：在运输经济学中,研究旅行时间价值的重要性显而易见。早在20世纪60年代,学者们就已经对旅行时间价值进行了大量的理论与实证研究。一般研究认为,旅行时间价值是不易受到决策主体的经历、预期或禀赋影响的,其价值的节约是提高时间资源利用效率的最直接形式,同时也是促进交通运输业不断发展的基本动力。然而,由于旅行时间本身的不可逆性与不可交易性,又会使其价值评判在很大程度带有主观性,这可以体现为大多数旅行者为旅行时间损失和收益所赋予的价值是不对称的：损失的旅行时间价值要高于收益。伴随着经济的高速发展与交通运输技术的不断成熟完善,人们对旅行时间价值的评价观念已经发生了重大转向：从单纯节约的视角转变为越来越强调包括准时可靠在内的损失厌恶视角。而从这种转向来看,旅行时间价值对于人们的意义更应该在于不要让旅行时间延误造成更大的损失。同时,这种评价观念的转向也意味着交通运输业的发展面临着重要的阶段性转变。因此,从损失厌恶视角对旅行时间价值进行重新审视和计量也就具有了重要的理论与现实意义。
在利用效用理论研究旅行时间价值的众多研究中,由于很少有学者从损失厌恶的视角来考察旅行时间价值,这就导致了传统分析方法存在一个缺陷——忽视了参照点的重要作用。因此,从这种意义上来说,传统的旅行时间价值研究应该是一种单一视角的静态分析思路和方法。基于此,作者在假设交通运输需求作为一种衍生需求的前提下,从出行选择角度出发对传统旅行时问价值研究范式进行修正,其主要工作与研究观点如下：一、从出行选择角度出发,创新性地将参照点引入旅行时间-运输费用替代关系的无差异曲线分析中,并依据参照点位置对旅行时间进行了“收益”和“损失”区分,进而建立了一个损失与节约并举的双重视角旅行时间价值分析框架,来阐释人们在评价旅行时间价值时的路径依赖现象与损失厌恶效应。而从深化研究的视角来看,该分析框架有助于进一步阐述旅行时间价值的可靠性与非匀质性,并得出相对旅行时间价值对出行选择影响更大的推论。二,利用参照点依赖分析框架改进传统的旅行时间价值研究模型,有助于验证普遍存在的旅行时间价值损失厌恶效应。同时,该模型也得出了人们对旅行时间的损失厌恶程度要高于对票价的损失厌恶程度的经验规则。三,根据参照点依赖的旅行时间价值模型推导出的运输系统或通道的旅行时间价值测算模型具有较强的操作性,这对改进单一节约视角来测算旅行时间价值模型的缺陷,重新认识运输系统评估体系以及完善交通规划模型构建等多方面具有重要的启示。
除此之外,参照点依赖的分析思路可能应用的领域还包括旅行时间的弹性分析、“错时上下班”政策解释和旅行时间服务满意度探讨等。
ABSTRACT:In transport economics, studies on the value of travel time are obviously important. In the early1960s, scholars have been doing a number of theoretical and empirical reserach on the value of travel time. It is commonly believed that the value of travel time is less susceptible to the decision-makers'experience, expectation or endowment, saving on the value of travel time is the most direct form to improve the resource utilization efficiency, and is also the fundamental impetus to the development of transportation industry. However, travel time itself is irreversible and cannot be traded, which make its value judgment subjective to a great extent. It can be embodied in that value of travel time of the losses and gains given by most travelers is asymmetric: loss of travel time is worth more than the profit. Along with the high-speed development of economy and transportation technology, the evaluation concept of value of travel time has significantly changed. It changes from the angle of purely saving into more and more emphasis on loss aversion. And in the point of this shift, the significance of value of travel time to people lies in not making a greater loss of travel time delays. At the same time, the shift of evaluation concept also means that the development of transportation industry is facing an important periodical transformation. Therefore, the re-examination and measurement from the perspectives of loss aversion have great theoretical and practical influence on value of travel time.
In plenty of researches on value of travel time by utility theory, because very few scholars examine value of travel time from perspective of loss aversion, which led to a defect in traditional analysis method--gnored the important role of reference point. Therefore, in this sense, traditional researches on value of travel time should be ideas and methods of static analysis from single perspective. So based on the assumption that the demand for transportation should be a derivative, the author made some modifications for researches on traditional value of travel time from the perspective of travel choice, and the main work and research ideas are as follows:1. innovatively brought the reference point into indifference curve analysis of travel time and transport cost alternative from perspective of travel choice, and distinguished "profits" and "loss" in line with the reference point position, and thus established a framework of value of travel time analysis with dual perspectives in both losses and savings in order to explain path dependence and loss aversion effect when people evaluate value of travel time. However, from perspective of deepening the researches, this analysis framework helps further explain the reliability and non-uniformity of value of travel time, in which it was conclude that relative value of travel time has more influence on travel choice.2. Utilized reference-dependence analysis framework to improve traditional researches on value of travel time, which helps to validate the effect of universal value of travel time loss aversion. In the meantime, this model concluded that the degree of travel time loss aversion by people should be greater than loss aversion for ticket prices.3. the measurement model in which value of travel time of transportation system or channel derived from reference-dependencies more operational, which helps a lot to improve the defect of value of travel time model from saving perspective to estimate model, re-recognize the evaluation system of transportation and complete the transportation planning model establishment and etc.
Besides, the applications of reference point analysis include elastic analysis of travel time, policy of "staggered working hours", and discussion on degree of satisfaction for travel time services, and so on.
在利用效用理论研究旅行时间价值的众多研究中,由于很少有学者从损失厌恶的视角来考察旅行时间价值,这就导致了传统分析方法存在一个缺陷——忽视了参照点的重要作用。因此,从这种意义上来说,传统的旅行时间价值研究应该是一种单一视角的静态分析思路和方法。基于此,作者在假设交通运输需求作为一种衍生需求的前提下,从出行选择角度出发对传统旅行时问价值研究范式进行修正,其主要工作与研究观点如下：一、从出行选择角度出发,创新性地将参照点引入旅行时间-运输费用替代关系的无差异曲线分析中,并依据参照点位置对旅行时间进行了“收益”和“损失”区分,进而建立了一个损失与节约并举的双重视角旅行时间价值分析框架,来阐释人们在评价旅行时间价值时的路径依赖现象与损失厌恶效应。而从深化研究的视角来看,该分析框架有助于进一步阐述旅行时间价值的可靠性与非匀质性,并得出相对旅行时间价值对出行选择影响更大的推论。二,利用参照点依赖分析框架改进传统的旅行时间价值研究模型,有助于验证普遍存在的旅行时间价值损失厌恶效应。同时,该模型也得出了人们对旅行时间的损失厌恶程度要高于对票价的损失厌恶程度的经验规则。三,根据参照点依赖的旅行时间价值模型推导出的运输系统或通道的旅行时间价值测算模型具有较强的操作性,这对改进单一节约视角来测算旅行时间价值模型的缺陷,重新认识运输系统评估体系以及完善交通规划模型构建等多方面具有重要的启示。
除此之外,参照点依赖的分析思路可能应用的领域还包括旅行时间的弹性分析、“错时上下班”政策解释和旅行时间服务满意度探讨等。
ABSTRACT:In transport economics, studies on the value of travel time are obviously important. In the early1960s, scholars have been doing a number of theoretical and empirical reserach on the value of travel time. It is commonly believed that the value of travel time is less susceptible to the decision-makers'experience, expectation or endowment, saving on the value of travel time is the most direct form to improve the resource utilization efficiency, and is also the fundamental impetus to the development of transportation industry. However, travel time itself is irreversible and cannot be traded, which make its value judgment subjective to a great extent. It can be embodied in that value of travel time of the losses and gains given by most travelers is asymmetric: loss of travel time is worth more than the profit. Along with the high-speed development of economy and transportation technology, the evaluation concept of value of travel time has significantly changed. It changes from the angle of purely saving into more and more emphasis on loss aversion. And in the point of this shift, the significance of value of travel time to people lies in not making a greater loss of travel time delays. At the same time, the shift of evaluation concept also means that the development of transportation industry is facing an important periodical transformation. Therefore, the re-examination and measurement from the perspectives of loss aversion have great theoretical and practical influence on value of travel time.
In plenty of researches on value of travel time by utility theory, because very few scholars examine value of travel time from perspective of loss aversion, which led to a defect in traditional analysis method--gnored the important role of reference point. Therefore, in this sense, traditional researches on value of travel time should be ideas and methods of static analysis from single perspective. So based on the assumption that the demand for transportation should be a derivative, the author made some modifications for researches on traditional value of travel time from the perspective of travel choice, and the main work and research ideas are as follows:1. innovatively brought the reference point into indifference curve analysis of travel time and transport cost alternative from perspective of travel choice, and distinguished "profits" and "loss" in line with the reference point position, and thus established a framework of value of travel time analysis with dual perspectives in both losses and savings in order to explain path dependence and loss aversion effect when people evaluate value of travel time. However, from perspective of deepening the researches, this analysis framework helps further explain the reliability and non-uniformity of value of travel time, in which it was conclude that relative value of travel time has more influence on travel choice.2. Utilized reference-dependence analysis framework to improve traditional researches on value of travel time, which helps to validate the effect of universal value of travel time loss aversion. In the meantime, this model concluded that the degree of travel time loss aversion by people should be greater than loss aversion for ticket prices.3. the measurement model in which value of travel time of transportation system or channel derived from reference-dependencies more operational, which helps a lot to improve the defect of value of travel time model from saving perspective to estimate model, re-recognize the evaluation system of transportation and complete the transportation planning model establishment and etc.
Besides, the applications of reference point analysis include elastic analysis of travel time, policy of "staggered working hours", and discussion on degree of satisfaction for travel time services, and so on.
引文
① 米昂内尔.罗宾斯：《经济科学的性质和意义》,商务印书馆(2001),P17.
① 荣朝和教授认为一定时间期限内,利用一种或多种运输工具,实现客户所需的从起始地到最终目的地的位移服务即为运输产品。
① 谢旭轩等,“北京市交通拥堵的社会成本分析”,《中国人口.资源与环境》,2011年21卷1期。
② 王轶闻.国内外城市交通拥堵现状研究,职业,2012(32),P129-130。
① 加里.贝克尔：《人类行为的经济分析》,P129,格致出版社,2008。
① 后续研究成果具体参见Kenneth.Button. Transport Economics (3th Edition).Edward Elgar,2010, P104.
① Yates F J, Stone E R. The risk construct; Rjsk-taking behavior, New York Wiley,;1-25.,1992
① Fiegenbaum A,Hart S,Dan L. Strategic Reference Point Theory,Slrategic Management Journal,17:219-235,1996.
④ 将参照点认为是现状的包括Kahneman，Tversky(1979,1991,1992),Hsee &Abelson(1991)等学者；而将参
照点认为是预期的则有Dembo(1931)和Siegel(1957)等学者.
① Kahneman, Tversky:Prospect theory:an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica,47(2):3-291.1979.
① Samuelson & Zeckhauser(1988)首次提出了现状偏见的概念。它是指人们对现有状况的过度偏好。
损失厌恶的心理特征早在亚当.斯密的《道德情操论》一书中就有所提及。
① 事实上,在新古典经济学的解释框架内,希克斯认为人们为失去某种资源而愿意接受的价格(WTA)与为获得相同资源而愿意付出的价格(WTP)是大致相当的。
② 损失厌恶的心理特征早在亚当.斯密的《道德情操论》一书中就有所提及。
① 损失厌恶这一心理特征已经被证明对解释一些现场数据很有用处。具体案例可参见科林.凯莫勒等编,贺京同等译.《行为经济学及其新进展》一书。
① 而关于这两种模型的具体推导可参见关宏志编著的《非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具》一书的P10-25。
① 具体可参见,Samuelson & Zeckhauser(1988)在对哈佛大学增补卫生保健计划的实例研究和Johnson(1993)等人对宾西法尼亚州和新泽西州居民购买汽车保险决策的实例研究。
① 有关出行选择的影响因素研究具体可参见Abrantes(2004,2008),Wardman(1998,2001,2004,2011)等人的系列研究。
② 损失中性即默认旅行者对收益或损失赋予的权重是相等的,例如λ_(TIME)=λ_(PRICE)=1。
② 因为这种时间的控制可以为旅行者或运输企业带来更高的满足度和利益(Small,1982)
① 运用极大似然估计及牛顿-拉普松方法求解的具体过程可参见关宏志编著的《非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具》一书的P26-59。
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① 荣朝和教授认为一定时间期限内,利用一种或多种运输工具,实现客户所需的从起始地到最终目的地的位移服务即为运输产品。
① 谢旭轩等,“北京市交通拥堵的社会成本分析”,《中国人口.资源与环境》,2011年21卷1期。
② 王轶闻.国内外城市交通拥堵现状研究,职业,2012(32),P129-130。
① 加里.贝克尔：《人类行为的经济分析》,P129,格致出版社,2008。
① 后续研究成果具体参见Kenneth.Button. Transport Economics (3th Edition).Edward Elgar,2010, P104.
① Yates F J, Stone E R. The risk construct; Rjsk-taking behavior, New York Wiley,;1-25.,1992
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④ 将参照点认为是现状的包括Kahneman，Tversky(1979,1991,1992),Hsee &Abelson(1991)等学者；而将参
照点认为是预期的则有Dembo(1931)和Siegel(1957)等学者.
① Kahneman, Tversky:Prospect theory:an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica,47(2):3-291.1979.
① Samuelson & Zeckhauser(1988)首次提出了现状偏见的概念。它是指人们对现有状况的过度偏好。
损失厌恶的心理特征早在亚当.斯密的《道德情操论》一书中就有所提及。
① 事实上,在新古典经济学的解释框架内,希克斯认为人们为失去某种资源而愿意接受的价格(WTA)与为获得相同资源而愿意付出的价格(WTP)是大致相当的。
② 损失厌恶的心理特征早在亚当.斯密的《道德情操论》一书中就有所提及。
① 损失厌恶这一心理特征已经被证明对解释一些现场数据很有用处。具体案例可参见科林.凯莫勒等编,贺京同等译.《行为经济学及其新进展》一书。
① 而关于这两种模型的具体推导可参见关宏志编著的《非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具》一书的P10-25。
① 具体可参见,Samuelson & Zeckhauser(1988)在对哈佛大学增补卫生保健计划的实例研究和Johnson(1993)等人对宾西法尼亚州和新泽西州居民购买汽车保险决策的实例研究。
① 有关出行选择的影响因素研究具体可参见Abrantes(2004,2008),Wardman(1998,2001,2004,2011)等人的系列研究。
② 损失中性即默认旅行者对收益或损失赋予的权重是相等的,例如λ_(TIME)=λ_(PRICE)=1。
② 因为这种时间的控制可以为旅行者或运输企业带来更高的满足度和利益(Small,1982)
① 运用极大似然估计及牛顿-拉普松方法求解的具体过程可参见关宏志编著的《非集计模型：交通行为分析的工具》一书的P26-59。
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