马其顿共和国的外国直接投资合资企业的股权风险研究
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摘要
本文探讨马其顿共和国这样一个发展中国家的外商直接投资的性质和决定因素总的来说,本文有以下四项主要贡献。
第一,我们分析了马其顿外国直接投资的性质,因为马其顿吸引外商投资的项目是快餐式的,本文重点论述了马其顿的这些重要工业。它也表明了其目前状况和招商引资的项目是由政府引导的。其次,我们遵循了以往理论指出的外直接投资的决定因素,并通过累积的材料分析了国家级别的外商投资者的特征。这些分析在一个更大的的范围内指出了影响外商投资项目数的因素,例如,规模,距离,经济自由度和以往的投资水平。第三,论文分析了国家政治风险对合资企业中外资股权的影响。结果表明,六月严重的风险实际上增加了外资股权,这得利于对所有制的控制。相反,那些有少数外国所有权的项目对风险表现得最为敏感。迄今为止不论是在独资还是在合资领域,外商直接投资的研究资料似乎都只关注了投资的引入模式,而以上这些研究结果将对这些研究资料具有补充价值。第四,我们将尝试建立一个定量模型,以便于在政治学和工商管理领域中的研究人员能够以一种跨学科方式来衡量关于外国直接投资的政治风险。
本论文具有一些重要的贡献价值。文章分析了马其顿经济部的信息从而获得了国外投资项目的数据资料。这些数据资料是从来自不同国家的投资项目、个体投资者,以及总体投资情况这一层面来分析的,因此它能帮助我们更为深入的理解马其顿外国投资的性质。我们以其国外所有权制度的形成为基础,探讨了马其顿的合资企业以及他们对所拥有股权的分配情况。
通过实例分析,以前的一些针对发达国家外商投资的研究让我们明确了一些影响股份的潜在因素和投资来源国的特征,文章用这些因素来检验马其顿的情况。这篇文章运用了例如普通最小二乘法、负二项式模型、计量模型,测定模型和赫克曼选择抽样模式这些技术。
研究结果表明,面临较严重的风险时,企业往往会增加他们的入境股份,如果风险不太严重,他们往往会减少入境股份。由于这种对股份的反应情况低干大多数所有权,所以前者的反应支持了增加所有权是为了行使对公司的控制这一论点。
研究结果似乎是与现有理论相对的,现有理论认为,公司将减少他们的股权来应付国家政治危机,但这只是独资导合资两种入境模式之间的选择。这里,我们认为,无论是独资还是合资企业的所有权选择入境模式的决定因素不同于合资企业中股权的情况。所以我们可以说,结果是其实是与现有理论一致的,并为它所支持。与先前所说的相关,作为合资企业这样一个入境模式,投资者必须要根据风险来调整它的股权。当然,我们已经表明,风险只是由相关条件评估出来的,表示的是数据资料的效益。当详细的资料能够被许多不同国家的投资商所共享利用时,去看看这一研究结果是否适用于不同的国家将会是非常有趣的。乐观地说,这项研究中调查外国直接投资的来源国决定因素的材料将会提供这一实例。
The thesis explores the nature and determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a developing country, in this case Republic of Republic of Macedonia. Overall, the thesis makes four main contributions.
First, it analyzes the nature of FDI in Republic of Macedonia since the programme form FDI attraction was lunched and also the thesis highlights the important industries for FDI. It also shows the situation in present time and FDI attraction programmes by the government of Republic of Macedonia.
Second, following the review of the literature on the determinants of FDI, this thesis analyzes the characteristics of the investors by cumulating the data at the country level. It locate that a wide range of aspects affect the number of foreign investment projects, such as:size, distance, economic freedom and past investment levels.
Third, it analyzes the effect of country political risk on the foreign equity share in joint venture (JV). Here, the results showed that severe risk may actually increase the foreign equity share, which is attributed to the benefits that ownership brings in the form of control. Further, those projects in minority foreign ownership appear most sensitive to risk. These results contribute to a literature, which to date has focused almost solely on the FDI entry mode either as whole or joint venture.
Fourth, we will attempt to construct an analytical-quantitative model that enables researchers in the fields of political science and business administration, in an interdisciplinary effort, to measure the political risks involved in any FDI.
第一,我们分析了马其顿外国直接投资的性质,因为马其顿吸引外商投资的项目是快餐式的,本文重点论述了马其顿的这些重要工业。它也表明了其目前状况和招商引资的项目是由政府引导的。其次,我们遵循了以往理论指出的外直接投资的决定因素,并通过累积的材料分析了国家级别的外商投资者的特征。这些分析在一个更大的的范围内指出了影响外商投资项目数的因素,例如,规模,距离,经济自由度和以往的投资水平。第三,论文分析了国家政治风险对合资企业中外资股权的影响。结果表明,六月严重的风险实际上增加了外资股权,这得利于对所有制的控制。相反,那些有少数外国所有权的项目对风险表现得最为敏感。迄今为止不论是在独资还是在合资领域,外商直接投资的研究资料似乎都只关注了投资的引入模式,而以上这些研究结果将对这些研究资料具有补充价值。第四,我们将尝试建立一个定量模型,以便于在政治学和工商管理领域中的研究人员能够以一种跨学科方式来衡量关于外国直接投资的政治风险。
本论文具有一些重要的贡献价值。文章分析了马其顿经济部的信息从而获得了国外投资项目的数据资料。这些数据资料是从来自不同国家的投资项目、个体投资者,以及总体投资情况这一层面来分析的,因此它能帮助我们更为深入的理解马其顿外国投资的性质。我们以其国外所有权制度的形成为基础,探讨了马其顿的合资企业以及他们对所拥有股权的分配情况。
通过实例分析,以前的一些针对发达国家外商投资的研究让我们明确了一些影响股份的潜在因素和投资来源国的特征,文章用这些因素来检验马其顿的情况。这篇文章运用了例如普通最小二乘法、负二项式模型、计量模型,测定模型和赫克曼选择抽样模式这些技术。
研究结果表明,面临较严重的风险时,企业往往会增加他们的入境股份,如果风险不太严重,他们往往会减少入境股份。由于这种对股份的反应情况低干大多数所有权,所以前者的反应支持了增加所有权是为了行使对公司的控制这一论点。
研究结果似乎是与现有理论相对的,现有理论认为,公司将减少他们的股权来应付国家政治危机,但这只是独资导合资两种入境模式之间的选择。这里,我们认为,无论是独资还是合资企业的所有权选择入境模式的决定因素不同于合资企业中股权的情况。所以我们可以说,结果是其实是与现有理论一致的,并为它所支持。与先前所说的相关,作为合资企业这样一个入境模式,投资者必须要根据风险来调整它的股权。当然,我们已经表明,风险只是由相关条件评估出来的,表示的是数据资料的效益。当详细的资料能够被许多不同国家的投资商所共享利用时,去看看这一研究结果是否适用于不同的国家将会是非常有趣的。乐观地说,这项研究中调查外国直接投资的来源国决定因素的材料将会提供这一实例。
The thesis explores the nature and determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a developing country, in this case Republic of Republic of Macedonia. Overall, the thesis makes four main contributions.
First, it analyzes the nature of FDI in Republic of Macedonia since the programme form FDI attraction was lunched and also the thesis highlights the important industries for FDI. It also shows the situation in present time and FDI attraction programmes by the government of Republic of Macedonia.
Second, following the review of the literature on the determinants of FDI, this thesis analyzes the characteristics of the investors by cumulating the data at the country level. It locate that a wide range of aspects affect the number of foreign investment projects, such as:size, distance, economic freedom and past investment levels.
Third, it analyzes the effect of country political risk on the foreign equity share in joint venture (JV). Here, the results showed that severe risk may actually increase the foreign equity share, which is attributed to the benefits that ownership brings in the form of control. Further, those projects in minority foreign ownership appear most sensitive to risk. These results contribute to a literature, which to date has focused almost solely on the FDI entry mode either as whole or joint venture.
Fourth, we will attempt to construct an analytical-quantitative model that enables researchers in the fields of political science and business administration, in an interdisciplinary effort, to measure the political risks involved in any FDI.
引文
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