海洋立管风险评价与安全措施研究
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摘要
近年来,海洋石油天然气工业快速发展,海洋工程技术日趋成熟,安全管理的技术和方法也提出了很多,但是各种海洋工程事故还是不断发生。海洋立管作为海洋油气开采系统的重要部件之一,在内部流体和外部环境荷载的作用下会发生碰撞、断裂和腐蚀失效等,造成严重的经济损失和环境破坏。因此对海洋立管破坏风险进行有效的评估是十分必要的。
本课题主要从风险的角度对海洋立管发生破坏失效的可能性及其后果影响进行评价,评述了海洋立管风险评价的一般方法和理论,并提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,评价结果可以为管理者提供更有效的理论支持。主要研究工作和研究成果如下:
1、对国内外海洋立管事故进行了统计分析,归纳出海洋立管破坏失效的原因主要包括管理不善、荷载破坏、第三方破坏、腐蚀、严重段塞流以及人为打孔盗油等,并运用模糊故障树方法,对立管失效概率进行了定量分析,提出了在数据资料缺乏的情况下确定立管发生破坏的可能性大小的一种方法;
2、采用ANSYS有限元分析方法对环境荷载作用下的立管自振频率、应力以及位移情况进行分析,从立管所受应力、变形等角度对立管破坏的可能性进行简单评估,立管工作的海洋环境越恶劣,其发生破坏失效的风险就越大;
3、对立管破坏失效的后果进行定性分析,包括人员伤亡、经济损失以及环境破坏等,并使用风险矩阵对立管失效风险进行了简单的评价,表明立管经过维护后其破坏风险将大大降低。最后提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,为保证立管安全运行提供了依据。
In recent years, the offshore oil and gas industry develops quickly, the marine engineering technology becomes mature and the safety management techniques has been put forward a lot, but kinds of marine engineering accident happenes constantly. As one of the important component of the marine oil-gas recovery system, the combined actions of the internal fluid and the external environment will lead the marine riser to collision, fracture and corrosion failure. Therefore evaluating the failure risk of marine riser effectively is very necessary.
This essay mainly evaluates the possibility of failure damage and its consequences from the angle of risk and reviews the general methods and theories of evaluating risk of the riser. It also gives some general measures to reduce the risk. The evaluation results can provide more effective theoretical support for the managers. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follow:
1. The failure reasons of the marine riser were identified according to the statistical analysis of the marine riser failure at home and abroad, which include ill management, load damage, third-party damage, corrosion, serious slugging flow and drilling for theft. It uses fuzzy fault tree method to quantificationally analysis the failure probability of the marine riser. The text puts forward a method to definite the probability while they have not enough data information.
2. This text uses ANSYS finite element analysis method to analysis the frequency, stress and displacement of the marine riser under environmental loads. It evaluates riser risk from the angle of stress and deform. With the environment condition gets worse,the risk of riser failure becomes greater.
3. The essay qualitative evaluates the consequences of the riser failure. It includes personal injury, economic losses and environmental destruction. It uses the risk matrix to simply evaluate the failure risk of the riser. The result shows that the risk will be reduced greatly after maintain. Finally it puts forwards some general measures to reduce the failure risk and gives foundations to guarantee riser run safely.
本课题主要从风险的角度对海洋立管发生破坏失效的可能性及其后果影响进行评价,评述了海洋立管风险评价的一般方法和理论,并提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,评价结果可以为管理者提供更有效的理论支持。主要研究工作和研究成果如下:
1、对国内外海洋立管事故进行了统计分析,归纳出海洋立管破坏失效的原因主要包括管理不善、荷载破坏、第三方破坏、腐蚀、严重段塞流以及人为打孔盗油等,并运用模糊故障树方法,对立管失效概率进行了定量分析,提出了在数据资料缺乏的情况下确定立管发生破坏的可能性大小的一种方法;
2、采用ANSYS有限元分析方法对环境荷载作用下的立管自振频率、应力以及位移情况进行分析,从立管所受应力、变形等角度对立管破坏的可能性进行简单评估,立管工作的海洋环境越恶劣,其发生破坏失效的风险就越大;
3、对立管破坏失效的后果进行定性分析,包括人员伤亡、经济损失以及环境破坏等,并使用风险矩阵对立管失效风险进行了简单的评价,表明立管经过维护后其破坏风险将大大降低。最后提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,为保证立管安全运行提供了依据。
In recent years, the offshore oil and gas industry develops quickly, the marine engineering technology becomes mature and the safety management techniques has been put forward a lot, but kinds of marine engineering accident happenes constantly. As one of the important component of the marine oil-gas recovery system, the combined actions of the internal fluid and the external environment will lead the marine riser to collision, fracture and corrosion failure. Therefore evaluating the failure risk of marine riser effectively is very necessary.
This essay mainly evaluates the possibility of failure damage and its consequences from the angle of risk and reviews the general methods and theories of evaluating risk of the riser. It also gives some general measures to reduce the risk. The evaluation results can provide more effective theoretical support for the managers. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follow:
1. The failure reasons of the marine riser were identified according to the statistical analysis of the marine riser failure at home and abroad, which include ill management, load damage, third-party damage, corrosion, serious slugging flow and drilling for theft. It uses fuzzy fault tree method to quantificationally analysis the failure probability of the marine riser. The text puts forward a method to definite the probability while they have not enough data information.
2. This text uses ANSYS finite element analysis method to analysis the frequency, stress and displacement of the marine riser under environmental loads. It evaluates riser risk from the angle of stress and deform. With the environment condition gets worse,the risk of riser failure becomes greater.
3. The essay qualitative evaluates the consequences of the riser failure. It includes personal injury, economic losses and environmental destruction. It uses the risk matrix to simply evaluate the failure risk of the riser. The result shows that the risk will be reduced greatly after maintain. Finally it puts forwards some general measures to reduce the failure risk and gives foundations to guarantee riser run safely.
引文
[1]国家质量技术监督局.GB/T14090—2008,海上油气开发工程术语[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008
[2]杨明华.海洋油气管道工程[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1992:89-107
[3] Patrick O’Brien,John Picksley.State of the Art Flexible Riser Integrity Issues Study Report [R].UKOOA,2001:10-14
[4]宋儒鑫.深水开发中的海底管道和海洋立管[J].中国造船,2002,43(z1):238-251
[5] Stock P F,Jamine R.Foundation Monitoring on the Hutton Tension Leg Platform[C].Proceeding International Conference on Offshore Site Investigation and Foundation Behavior,1993:469-491
[6] Sterling G H.Analysis of the Pi1e Foundation System for a North Sea Drilling Platform[C].Behavior of Offshore Structures , Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference,1982:3-5
[7]NTS.Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis[S].NORSOK Standard Z-013,Rev.1,1998:63-68
[8] Aberdeen University Petroleum and Economic Consultants Ltd.Evaluation of the offshore safety legislative regime[R].Health and safety Executive,Safety Policy Division,1999:55-60
[9] HSE.Reducing Risks,Protecting People[R].Discussion Document,Health and Safety Executive,1999:114-120
[10] HSE.The Costs of Accidents at work[M].Health and safety Executive,HSE books,1997:78-85
[11]秦炳军,张圣坤.海洋工程风险评估的现状和发展[J].海洋工程,1998,16(1):14-22
[12]王宏伟,余建星.海洋工程全面风险管理方法体系研究[J].海洋技术,2006,25(1):89-93
[13]余建星,李成.主成分分析法在海洋工程系统风险分析中的应用[J].海洋技术,2003,22(3):76-80
[14]徐爱民,孟凡生,李军.海洋工程风险管理及防范措施探讨[J].中国造船,2005,46(z1):513-516
[15]罗桦槟,张世英.海洋平台定量风险评估[J].管理工程学报,1999,13(1):56-62
[16] DET NORSKE VERITAS.Risk Assessment of Pipeline Protection[M].国家海洋局杭州海洋工程勘查设计研究中心翻译,2001
[17] Sparks C P , Odru P , Metivaud G.Defect tolerance assessment and non-destructive of testing composite riser tubes[J].OMAE , Material Engineering,ASME 1992:209-214
[18] Leira B J,Torhaug R,Kirkvik R H.Reliability aspects of deep-water risers design[J].OMAE,Safety & Reliability,ASME 1997:315-325
[19] E.G.Ward,R.M.Gilbert.A Comparative Risk Analysis of Composite and Steel Production Risers[R].Minerals Management Service,2007:9-29
[20]杨怿,郭振邦.人误因素分析在船舶撞击立管概率计算中的应用[J].中国海洋平台,2007,22(3):40-43
[21]陈国明,方华灿,潘东明.近海在役管道安全可靠性评估技术研究[J].石油工业技术监督,2004,20(10):5-9
[22]牟善军.海上石油工程风险评估技术[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2006
[23]刘海燕,尹群,李良碧.漂浮碰撞作用下立管油气泄漏风险定量分析[J].中国海洋平台,2008,23(6):26-30
[24]苟三权.油田开发项目的风险分析方法综述[J].石油钻探技术,2007,35(2):87-90
[25] ACDS.Major Hazards Aspects of the Transport of Dangerous Substances[R]. Health and safety Commission , Advisory Committee on Dangerous Substances, 1991:10-15
[26] HSE.Assessment Principles for offshore Safety Cases[M].Health and Safety Executive,HMSO,1998:4-27
[27]严大凡,翁永基,董绍华.油气长输管道风险评价与完整性管理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005:122-163
[28] HSE.Five steps to Risk Assessment[M].Health and safety Executive,HSE Books,1998:2-7
[29] Det Norske Veritas.Marine Risk Assessment[R].Offshore Technology Report,2001,3:20-23
[30]郑津洋,马夏康,尹谢平.长输管道安全:风险辨识、评价、控制[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004:121-150
[31] Jan Erik Vinnem.Offshore Risk Assessment(Principles , Modeling and Application of QRA Studies)[M].Kiuwer Academic Publishers,1999:201-209
[32]国防科学技术工业委员会.GJB768A-1998,故障树分析指南[S].1998
[33]周海京,遇今.故障模式、影响及危害性分析与故障树分析[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2003:96-145
[34] Kennedy B.ALARP in Practice-An Industry View[C].Offshore Safety Cases Conference,HSE,1993:205-210
[35] 1980年至今世界的22起重大石油工业事故[J].安全、环境和健康,2001,1(8):12-12
[36]Minerals Management Service.Incidents Associated with Oil and Gas Operations Outer Continental shelf 1991-2000[R].OCS Report,2002
[37] Det Norske Veritas Industry AS,The UK Health & Safety Executive-Offshore Safety Division.Accidents on Fixed Offshore Units on the UK Continental Shelf 1980-2005[R].Health and Safety Executive,2006
[38] Molly Atkins,Tim Edward,Denis Johnson.Pipeline Damage Assessment from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the Gulf of Mexico[R].Minerals Management Service,REPORT NO.448 14183,2007:28-30
[39]李敬波,张韶光,路国章等.胜利埕岛海底天然气管线立管断裂原因分析[C].第八次渤海湾浅(滩)海油气勘探开发工程技术研讨会会议论文,2003:205-209
[40]孙海英,朱林等.管线\立管中严重段塞流的研究与控制[J].油气田地面工程,2004,23(11):23-25
[41] Schmidt Z,Doty D R,Dutta-Roy K.Severe slugging flow in offshore pipeline riser-pipe systems[J].SPEJ,1985,2(25):27-38
[42]肖辞源.工程模糊系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:18-35
[43] CHEN SHU-JEN,H WANG CHING-LAI.Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods and applications[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1990:250-252
[44] LIN CHING-TORNG,WANG MAO-JIUN J.Hybird fault tree analysis using fuzzy sets[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1997(58):72-75
[45]王茜,赵建平.海底管道第三方破坏失效状况模糊故障树分析[J].天然气工业,2008,28(5):109-111
[46] TAKEHISA ONISAWA.An approach to human reliability in man-machine systems using error possibility [J].Fuzzy sets and systems,1988,27:87-103
[47]J.盖斯维特著,吴宜倜译.海洋环境与建筑物设计[M].北京:海洋出版社,1992:1-11
[48]陈铁云,吴水云,陈巍旻等.海洋工程结构力学[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1989:12-30
[49]中国船级社.海上固定平台入级与建造规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社,1992
[50]孙丽萍,聂武.海洋工程概论[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学出版社,2000:6-18
[51]任大朋,黄一,刘刚.一种基于ANSYS和FLUENT的海洋立管的涡激响应分析方法[J].中国海洋平台,2007,22(4):32-36
[52]马良.海洋管道技术综述[J].油气储运,1989,8(5):7-13
[53]国家经济贸易委员会.SY/T 10037-2002,海底管道系统规范[S].北京:石油工业出版社,2002
[54]尚晓江,邱峰,赵海峰.ANSYS结构有限元高级分析方法与范例应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008:210-214
[55]曾江宁,徐晓群,寿鹿等.海底石油管道溢油的生态风险及防范对策[J].海洋开发与管理,2007,24(3):120-123
[56] DNV.RP-G101,Risk based inspection of offshore top-side static mechanical equipments[S].Det Norskec Veri-tas,2002
[57]赵建平.海底管道风险评价方法简介[C].第三届全国管道技术学术会议压力管道技术研究进展精选集,2006:37-41
[2]杨明华.海洋油气管道工程[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1992:89-107
[3] Patrick O’Brien,John Picksley.State of the Art Flexible Riser Integrity Issues Study Report [R].UKOOA,2001:10-14
[4]宋儒鑫.深水开发中的海底管道和海洋立管[J].中国造船,2002,43(z1):238-251
[5] Stock P F,Jamine R.Foundation Monitoring on the Hutton Tension Leg Platform[C].Proceeding International Conference on Offshore Site Investigation and Foundation Behavior,1993:469-491
[6] Sterling G H.Analysis of the Pi1e Foundation System for a North Sea Drilling Platform[C].Behavior of Offshore Structures , Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference,1982:3-5
[7]NTS.Risk and Emergency Preparedness Analysis[S].NORSOK Standard Z-013,Rev.1,1998:63-68
[8] Aberdeen University Petroleum and Economic Consultants Ltd.Evaluation of the offshore safety legislative regime[R].Health and safety Executive,Safety Policy Division,1999:55-60
[9] HSE.Reducing Risks,Protecting People[R].Discussion Document,Health and Safety Executive,1999:114-120
[10] HSE.The Costs of Accidents at work[M].Health and safety Executive,HSE books,1997:78-85
[11]秦炳军,张圣坤.海洋工程风险评估的现状和发展[J].海洋工程,1998,16(1):14-22
[12]王宏伟,余建星.海洋工程全面风险管理方法体系研究[J].海洋技术,2006,25(1):89-93
[13]余建星,李成.主成分分析法在海洋工程系统风险分析中的应用[J].海洋技术,2003,22(3):76-80
[14]徐爱民,孟凡生,李军.海洋工程风险管理及防范措施探讨[J].中国造船,2005,46(z1):513-516
[15]罗桦槟,张世英.海洋平台定量风险评估[J].管理工程学报,1999,13(1):56-62
[16] DET NORSKE VERITAS.Risk Assessment of Pipeline Protection[M].国家海洋局杭州海洋工程勘查设计研究中心翻译,2001
[17] Sparks C P , Odru P , Metivaud G.Defect tolerance assessment and non-destructive of testing composite riser tubes[J].OMAE , Material Engineering,ASME 1992:209-214
[18] Leira B J,Torhaug R,Kirkvik R H.Reliability aspects of deep-water risers design[J].OMAE,Safety & Reliability,ASME 1997:315-325
[19] E.G.Ward,R.M.Gilbert.A Comparative Risk Analysis of Composite and Steel Production Risers[R].Minerals Management Service,2007:9-29
[20]杨怿,郭振邦.人误因素分析在船舶撞击立管概率计算中的应用[J].中国海洋平台,2007,22(3):40-43
[21]陈国明,方华灿,潘东明.近海在役管道安全可靠性评估技术研究[J].石油工业技术监督,2004,20(10):5-9
[22]牟善军.海上石油工程风险评估技术[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2006
[23]刘海燕,尹群,李良碧.漂浮碰撞作用下立管油气泄漏风险定量分析[J].中国海洋平台,2008,23(6):26-30
[24]苟三权.油田开发项目的风险分析方法综述[J].石油钻探技术,2007,35(2):87-90
[25] ACDS.Major Hazards Aspects of the Transport of Dangerous Substances[R]. Health and safety Commission , Advisory Committee on Dangerous Substances, 1991:10-15
[26] HSE.Assessment Principles for offshore Safety Cases[M].Health and Safety Executive,HMSO,1998:4-27
[27]严大凡,翁永基,董绍华.油气长输管道风险评价与完整性管理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005:122-163
[28] HSE.Five steps to Risk Assessment[M].Health and safety Executive,HSE Books,1998:2-7
[29] Det Norske Veritas.Marine Risk Assessment[R].Offshore Technology Report,2001,3:20-23
[30]郑津洋,马夏康,尹谢平.长输管道安全:风险辨识、评价、控制[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004:121-150
[31] Jan Erik Vinnem.Offshore Risk Assessment(Principles , Modeling and Application of QRA Studies)[M].Kiuwer Academic Publishers,1999:201-209
[32]国防科学技术工业委员会.GJB768A-1998,故障树分析指南[S].1998
[33]周海京,遇今.故障模式、影响及危害性分析与故障树分析[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2003:96-145
[34] Kennedy B.ALARP in Practice-An Industry View[C].Offshore Safety Cases Conference,HSE,1993:205-210
[35] 1980年至今世界的22起重大石油工业事故[J].安全、环境和健康,2001,1(8):12-12
[36]Minerals Management Service.Incidents Associated with Oil and Gas Operations Outer Continental shelf 1991-2000[R].OCS Report,2002
[37] Det Norske Veritas Industry AS,The UK Health & Safety Executive-Offshore Safety Division.Accidents on Fixed Offshore Units on the UK Continental Shelf 1980-2005[R].Health and Safety Executive,2006
[38] Molly Atkins,Tim Edward,Denis Johnson.Pipeline Damage Assessment from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the Gulf of Mexico[R].Minerals Management Service,REPORT NO.448 14183,2007:28-30
[39]李敬波,张韶光,路国章等.胜利埕岛海底天然气管线立管断裂原因分析[C].第八次渤海湾浅(滩)海油气勘探开发工程技术研讨会会议论文,2003:205-209
[40]孙海英,朱林等.管线\立管中严重段塞流的研究与控制[J].油气田地面工程,2004,23(11):23-25
[41] Schmidt Z,Doty D R,Dutta-Roy K.Severe slugging flow in offshore pipeline riser-pipe systems[J].SPEJ,1985,2(25):27-38
[42]肖辞源.工程模糊系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:18-35
[43] CHEN SHU-JEN,H WANG CHING-LAI.Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods and applications[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1990:250-252
[44] LIN CHING-TORNG,WANG MAO-JIUN J.Hybird fault tree analysis using fuzzy sets[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1997(58):72-75
[45]王茜,赵建平.海底管道第三方破坏失效状况模糊故障树分析[J].天然气工业,2008,28(5):109-111
[46] TAKEHISA ONISAWA.An approach to human reliability in man-machine systems using error possibility [J].Fuzzy sets and systems,1988,27:87-103
[47]J.盖斯维特著,吴宜倜译.海洋环境与建筑物设计[M].北京:海洋出版社,1992:1-11
[48]陈铁云,吴水云,陈巍旻等.海洋工程结构力学[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1989:12-30
[49]中国船级社.海上固定平台入级与建造规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社,1992
[50]孙丽萍,聂武.海洋工程概论[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学出版社,2000:6-18
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