统计学方法制定我国湖泊营养物基准的研究
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摘要
湖泊富营养化已成为重要的全球性水环境问题之一。作为富营养化控制标准的科学基础,湖泊营养物基准的制定成为我国的当务之急。我国湖泊众多、分布广泛,营养物水平和富营养化效应的区域差异性明显,欲科学合理地制定湖泊营养物基准,需要在不同区域确定各自的基准。
营养物基准的指标是可用于衡量水质、评价或预测水体的营养状态或富营养化程度的变量,是构成建立区域和湖泊营养物基准的基础。本研究对包括营养盐在内的一系列指标进行了归纳和概述,介绍了当前美国在湖泊营养物基准指标选取方面的基本情况,提出了选择指标时应遵循的若干原则和建议。
建立生态分区内各类型湖泊营养物的参照状态是营养物基准制定过程中最为核心的内容之一。本研究系统分析和评价了确定湖泊营养物参照状态的若干种方法,包括统计学方法、模型推断、古湖沼学重建和专家判断等；重点分析了参照湖泊法、湖泊群体分布法、三分法以及回归分析等几种统计学方法,并深入探讨了适用性和可行性。
本研究针对东部平原湖区、蒙新高原湖区和云贵高原湖区三个区域的湖泊近若干年的水质监测数据,选取最能体现水体的营养状况并具有早期预警功能的总磷、总氮、叶绿素a和透明度四项指标,在分析区域差异性的基础上,研究指标之间的关系并建立回归方程,对湖泊典型的营养物浓度、营养状态指数和氮磷比等进行分析和比较,并针对不同方法建立东部平原湖区营养物参照状态的结果进行对比。利用统计学方法(湖泊群体分布法)建立各湖区营养物参照状态,分析其差异的成因,评价在参照状态所处的营养状态。
综合研究分析显示,不同湖区各指标间关系各不相同,如有机质浓度、非藻类浊度和总溶解性固体等对营养状况均有不同程度影响；综合考虑之后,选定三个湖区的总磷和总氮的参照状态值分别为0.025mg·L-1、0.005mg·L-1、0.008mg·L-1和0.622mg·L-1、0.633mg·L-1、0.173mg·L-1,叶绿素a和透明度的参照状态值分别为0.65mg·m-3、0.798mg·m-3、2.24mg·m-3和0.60m、2.68m、4.97m,表明在无人类活动干扰的条件下,东部平原湖区处于中营养状态,其余两个湖区处于贫营养状态。
Lake eutrophication has been one of the most important global water environmental problems. As the base of eutrophication control standard, lake nutrient criteria development is a priority in China. There are thousands of lakes over the country, the nutrient levels and the effect of eutrophication vary significantly. Thus, criteria should be established in each region to develop nutrient criteria scientifically.
Nutrient criteria variables could be used to measure water quality, evaluate trophic status or predict eutrophication and were the basis of lake nutrient criteria in regions. In this study, a series of variables and the situation in U.S.A were reviewed, and some principles and suggestions about variable selection were proposed.
Lake nutrient reference condition Establishment in an ecoregion is a critical part in nutrient criteria development. In this study, several methods of reference condition establishment have been reviewed as statistical methods, including statistical method, model extrapolation, paleolimnological reconstruction and expert judgement; reference lake approach, lake population distribution approach, trisection approach and regression approach were analyzed.
In this paper, based on the historical monitoring data of water quality in three regions, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll a and Secci depth were selected as nutrient indicators. Based on the analysis of regional variety, relationships between the variables were studied and regression equations were set up; typical nutrient concentrations, trophic state indices and N/P ratio were analyzed; reference conditions set by different approaches were compared. Statistical method (lake population distribution approach) was applied to establish the nutrient reference conditions for each region, and the trophic status of each reference condition was evaluated.
Results showed that variable relationships in different region differed, eg. organic concentration, turbidity and total dissolved solids could affect trophic status. Through comparative analysis, reference condition values of total phosphorus, total nitrogen were 0.025mg·L-1, 0.005mg·L-1, 0.008mg·L-1 and 0.622mg·L-1, 0.633mg·L-1, 0.173mg·L-1; reference condition values of chlorophyll a and Secci depth were 0.65mg·m-3,0.798mg·m-3,2.24mg·m-3 and 0.60m,2.68m,4.97m. Region1 was in mesotrophic status and the others were both in eutrophic status without human disturbance.
营养物基准的指标是可用于衡量水质、评价或预测水体的营养状态或富营养化程度的变量,是构成建立区域和湖泊营养物基准的基础。本研究对包括营养盐在内的一系列指标进行了归纳和概述,介绍了当前美国在湖泊营养物基准指标选取方面的基本情况,提出了选择指标时应遵循的若干原则和建议。
建立生态分区内各类型湖泊营养物的参照状态是营养物基准制定过程中最为核心的内容之一。本研究系统分析和评价了确定湖泊营养物参照状态的若干种方法,包括统计学方法、模型推断、古湖沼学重建和专家判断等；重点分析了参照湖泊法、湖泊群体分布法、三分法以及回归分析等几种统计学方法,并深入探讨了适用性和可行性。
本研究针对东部平原湖区、蒙新高原湖区和云贵高原湖区三个区域的湖泊近若干年的水质监测数据,选取最能体现水体的营养状况并具有早期预警功能的总磷、总氮、叶绿素a和透明度四项指标,在分析区域差异性的基础上,研究指标之间的关系并建立回归方程,对湖泊典型的营养物浓度、营养状态指数和氮磷比等进行分析和比较,并针对不同方法建立东部平原湖区营养物参照状态的结果进行对比。利用统计学方法(湖泊群体分布法)建立各湖区营养物参照状态,分析其差异的成因,评价在参照状态所处的营养状态。
综合研究分析显示,不同湖区各指标间关系各不相同,如有机质浓度、非藻类浊度和总溶解性固体等对营养状况均有不同程度影响；综合考虑之后,选定三个湖区的总磷和总氮的参照状态值分别为0.025mg·L-1、0.005mg·L-1、0.008mg·L-1和0.622mg·L-1、0.633mg·L-1、0.173mg·L-1,叶绿素a和透明度的参照状态值分别为0.65mg·m-3、0.798mg·m-3、2.24mg·m-3和0.60m、2.68m、4.97m,表明在无人类活动干扰的条件下,东部平原湖区处于中营养状态,其余两个湖区处于贫营养状态。
Lake eutrophication has been one of the most important global water environmental problems. As the base of eutrophication control standard, lake nutrient criteria development is a priority in China. There are thousands of lakes over the country, the nutrient levels and the effect of eutrophication vary significantly. Thus, criteria should be established in each region to develop nutrient criteria scientifically.
Nutrient criteria variables could be used to measure water quality, evaluate trophic status or predict eutrophication and were the basis of lake nutrient criteria in regions. In this study, a series of variables and the situation in U.S.A were reviewed, and some principles and suggestions about variable selection were proposed.
Lake nutrient reference condition Establishment in an ecoregion is a critical part in nutrient criteria development. In this study, several methods of reference condition establishment have been reviewed as statistical methods, including statistical method, model extrapolation, paleolimnological reconstruction and expert judgement; reference lake approach, lake population distribution approach, trisection approach and regression approach were analyzed.
In this paper, based on the historical monitoring data of water quality in three regions, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll a and Secci depth were selected as nutrient indicators. Based on the analysis of regional variety, relationships between the variables were studied and regression equations were set up; typical nutrient concentrations, trophic state indices and N/P ratio were analyzed; reference conditions set by different approaches were compared. Statistical method (lake population distribution approach) was applied to establish the nutrient reference conditions for each region, and the trophic status of each reference condition was evaluated.
Results showed that variable relationships in different region differed, eg. organic concentration, turbidity and total dissolved solids could affect trophic status. Through comparative analysis, reference condition values of total phosphorus, total nitrogen were 0.025mg·L-1, 0.005mg·L-1, 0.008mg·L-1 and 0.622mg·L-1, 0.633mg·L-1, 0.173mg·L-1; reference condition values of chlorophyll a and Secci depth were 0.65mg·m-3,0.798mg·m-3,2.24mg·m-3 and 0.60m,2.68m,4.97m. Region1 was in mesotrophic status and the others were both in eutrophic status without human disturbance.
引文
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