基于动态决策的群体疏散动力学特征研究
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摘要
高密集人群聚居场所的疏散问题,越来越受到社会的关注。对于疏散者行为的研究是疏散问题的基本问题。现有的模型中对疏散者行为的描述还停留在简单的参数设置上,对行人冲突与合作的分析尚没有完整的分析框架。而本文尝试应用微分动态博弈的方法对疏散者的行为进行了探索,通过求得的解析结果,可以在一定程度上对疏散者的行为进行解释。
紧急状态下的心理分析是研究群体疏散过程中被疏散者行为的基础。本文首先提取了社会力模型中的各个心理因素,然后从心理学的视角进行了分析,建立起疏散心理的效用模型。最后基于疏散个体的效用,提出了微分动态博弈模型,并对被疏散者的竞争与冲突的行为进行了分析。通过博弈论的工具来研究群体疏散中的动态决策问题,可以发现合作在群体疏散的过程中起到非常重要的作用。竞争与合作是疏散过程中疏散人群主要表现的行为,而这两种行为可以通过博弈论的方法来研究。
本文的研究结果将有助于分析群体疏散过程中的动态决策行为,从新的视角研究了疏散过程中行人的动力学特征,丰富了现有的疏散行为的研究。
The evacuation problem in a densely populated enclosure has more and more social concerns. The study on the behaviors of evacuee is fundamental to evacuation problem. The existing models for the behaviors of evacuees require fixed parameters and there are still not a complete framework of anaysis for rationality of evacuee's coorperation and competition. This article is aimed at exploring the behaviors of evacuees by means of differential game theory and the resulting analysis can be used to explain their behavior in a simply fasion.
Psychological analysis in an emergent situation is a key part to study the evacuation process. This article firstly extracted the psychological factors from social force model, and then established utility function from perspective of psychology. Furthermore based on this utility function game-theoretic model was proposed and corresponding competitive and cooperative behavors were discussed. It is found that cooperative behavior plays an important role in the evacuation process if game theory is applied to study such evacuation problem. Competition and cooperation are both the common behaviors for the evacuee which can be readily analysed by game theory.
This research is useful to understand dynamic decision-making from a novel perspective. This model enriches the current behavioral models of evacation for the kinematic characteristics of crowd evacuation.
紧急状态下的心理分析是研究群体疏散过程中被疏散者行为的基础。本文首先提取了社会力模型中的各个心理因素,然后从心理学的视角进行了分析,建立起疏散心理的效用模型。最后基于疏散个体的效用,提出了微分动态博弈模型,并对被疏散者的竞争与冲突的行为进行了分析。通过博弈论的工具来研究群体疏散中的动态决策问题,可以发现合作在群体疏散的过程中起到非常重要的作用。竞争与合作是疏散过程中疏散人群主要表现的行为,而这两种行为可以通过博弈论的方法来研究。
本文的研究结果将有助于分析群体疏散过程中的动态决策行为,从新的视角研究了疏散过程中行人的动力学特征,丰富了现有的疏散行为的研究。
The evacuation problem in a densely populated enclosure has more and more social concerns. The study on the behaviors of evacuee is fundamental to evacuation problem. The existing models for the behaviors of evacuees require fixed parameters and there are still not a complete framework of anaysis for rationality of evacuee's coorperation and competition. This article is aimed at exploring the behaviors of evacuees by means of differential game theory and the resulting analysis can be used to explain their behavior in a simply fasion.
Psychological analysis in an emergent situation is a key part to study the evacuation process. This article firstly extracted the psychological factors from social force model, and then established utility function from perspective of psychology. Furthermore based on this utility function game-theoretic model was proposed and corresponding competitive and cooperative behavors were discussed. It is found that cooperative behavior plays an important role in the evacuation process if game theory is applied to study such evacuation problem. Competition and cooperation are both the common behaviors for the evacuee which can be readily analysed by game theory.
This research is useful to understand dynamic decision-making from a novel perspective. This model enriches the current behavioral models of evacation for the kinematic characteristics of crowd evacuation.
引文
[1] Helbing D, Farkas I, Molnar P, Vicsek T. Simulation of pedestrian crowds in normal and evacuation simulations [A]. In: Schreckenberg, M., Sharma, S. (Eds.), Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics[C]. Berlin:Springer, 2002, 21 - 58.
[2] Hughes R L. A continuum theory for the flow of pedestrians[J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2002, 36(6): 507-535.
[3] Treuille A, Cooper S, Popovi Z. Continuum crowds[J]. ACM Transactions on Graphics 25(3) , 2006,1160- 1168.
[4] Hoogendoorn S P, Bovy P H L. Pedestrian route-choice and activity scheduling theory and models[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2004, 38(2): 169-190.
[5] Hoogendoorn S P, Bovy P H L. Dynamic user-optimal assignment in continuous time and space[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2004, 38(7): 571-592.
[6] Levas G G. Models of wayfinding in emergency evacuations[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1998,105: 371 - 389.
[7] Blue V J, Adler J L. Cellular automata microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkways. Transportation Research Part B, 2001, 35 (3): 293 - 312.
[8] Nagatani T, Nagai R. Statistical characteristics of evacuation without visibility in random walk model [J]. Physica A, 2004, 341:638 - 648.
[9] Nagai R, Nagatani T, Isobe M, Adachi T. Effect of exit configuration on evacuation of a room without visibility[J]. Physica A ,2004,343:712 - 724.
[10] Lo S M, Fang Z, Lin P, Zhi G S. An evacuation model: the SGEM package[J].Fire Safety Journal, 2004, 39:169- 190.
[11] Antonini G, Bierlaire M, Weber M. Simulation of Pedestrian Behaviour using a Discrete Choice Model Calibrated on Actual Motion Data [C]. 4th STRC Swiss Transport Research Conference, 2004.
[12] Antonini G, Bierlaire M, Weber M. Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior [J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2006,40(8): 667 - 687.
[13] Georgiadou P S, Papazoglou I A, Kiranoudis C T, Markatos N C. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2007,92(10):1388-1402.
[14] Pan X S, Han C S, Dauber K, Law K H. Human and social behavior in computational modeling and analysis of egress[J]. Automation in Construction, 2006, 15:448-461.
[15] Shields T J, Boyce K E, Silcock G W H. Towards the Characterization of Large Retail Stores[J]. Fire and Materials, 2000,23:325-331.
[16] Benthorn L, Frantzich H. Fire Alarm in a Public Building: How do People Evaluate Information and Choose an Evacuation Exit?[J]. Fire and Materials, 1999,23:311-315.
[17] Kirchner A, Klupfel H, Nishinari K, Schadschneider A, Schreckenberg M. Simulation of competitive egress behavior: comparison with aircraft evacuation data[J]. Physica A, 2003, 324:689 - 697.
[18] Lo S M, Huang H C, Wang P, Yuen K K.A game theory based exit selection model for evacuation[J].Fire Safety Journal, 2006,41:364 - 369.
[19] Sime J D. An occupant response shelter escape time (ORSET) model [J]. Safety Science, 2001, 38(2):109-125.
[20]Ozel F.Time pressure and stress as a factor during emergency egress[J].Safety Science,2001,38(2):95-107.
[21]Shields T J,Boyce K E.A study of evacuation from large retail stores[J].Fire Safety Journal,2000,35:25-49.
[22]Helbing D,Farkas I,Vicsek T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic[J].Nature,2000,407:487-490.
[23]Helbing D,Molnar P.Social force model for pedestrian dynamics[J].Physical Review E,1995,51(5):4282-4286.
[24]Helbing D,Buzna L,Johansson A,et al.Self-organized pedestrian crowd dynamics:experiments,simulations,and design solutions[J].Transportation Science,2005,39(1):1-24.
[25]Werner T,Helbing D.The social force pedestrian model applied to real life scenarios.In:Galea E R(Ed.),Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics,London:CMS Press,21-58.
[26]Graat E,Midden C,Bockholts P.Complex evacuation;effects of motivation level and slope of stairs on emergency egress time in a sports stadium[J].Safety Science,31(1999) 127-141.
[27]Proulx G.Understanding Human Behaviour in Stressful Situations[R].Workshop to Identify Innovative Research Needs to Foster Improved Fire Safety in the United States,National Academy of Sciences,Delegate Binder Section 7,Washington,D.C.,2002,1-5.
[28]Sime J D.Crowd psychology and engineering[J].Safety Science,1995,21:1-14.
[29]Clarke L.Panic:Myth or Reality[J].Contexts,2002,1(3):21-6.
[30]Quarantelli E L.The sociology of panic[A].In:Baltes P B,Smelser N.International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences[C].New York:Pergamon Press,2001,11020-11030.
[31]Sherif M.The psychology of social norms[M],New York:Harper,1936.
[32]Asch S E.Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments[A].In:Guetzkow H.Groups,leadership,and men[c].Pittsburgh,PA(USA):Carnegie Press,1951,177-190.
[33]秦启文,周永康.公众在突发事件中的负面心理反应解构[J].西南师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2006,32(1):86-91.
[34]Quarantelli E L.Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities[J].Sociai Research,2008,75(3):873-904.
[35]吴国宏,刘丝纬,张莹,等.现代城市灾难结构与心理反应特点.心理科学,2006,29(1):181-184.
[36]Mawson A R.Understanding mass panic and other collective responses to threat and disaster[J].Psychiatry,2005,68(2):95-113.
[37]Saraf S,Karanjikar M.Literary and economic impact of the Bhopal gas tragedy[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18:274-282.
[38]Glass T A,Schoch-Spana M.Bioterrorism and the people:how to vaccinate a city against panic[J].Clinical Infectious Diseases,2002,34:217-23.
[39]Kirchner A,Schadschneider A.Simulation of evacuation processes using a bionics-inspired cellular automaton model for pedestrian dynamics[J].Physica A,2002,312:260-276.
[40]Shaw R.Don't panic:behaviour in major incidents[J].Disaster Prevention and Management,2001,10(1):5-10.
[41]Yuan W F,Tan K H.An evacuation model using cellular automata[J].Physica A,2007,384:549 -566.
[42] Drury J, Winter G. Social identity as a source of strength in mass emergencies and other crowd events[J]. International Journal of Mental Health, 2003, 32(4):77 - 93.
[43] Basar T, Olsder GJ. Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory[M]. Philadelphia: SIAM, 1982.
[2] Hughes R L. A continuum theory for the flow of pedestrians[J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2002, 36(6): 507-535.
[3] Treuille A, Cooper S, Popovi Z. Continuum crowds[J]. ACM Transactions on Graphics 25(3) , 2006,1160- 1168.
[4] Hoogendoorn S P, Bovy P H L. Pedestrian route-choice and activity scheduling theory and models[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2004, 38(2): 169-190.
[5] Hoogendoorn S P, Bovy P H L. Dynamic user-optimal assignment in continuous time and space[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2004, 38(7): 571-592.
[6] Levas G G. Models of wayfinding in emergency evacuations[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1998,105: 371 - 389.
[7] Blue V J, Adler J L. Cellular automata microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkways. Transportation Research Part B, 2001, 35 (3): 293 - 312.
[8] Nagatani T, Nagai R. Statistical characteristics of evacuation without visibility in random walk model [J]. Physica A, 2004, 341:638 - 648.
[9] Nagai R, Nagatani T, Isobe M, Adachi T. Effect of exit configuration on evacuation of a room without visibility[J]. Physica A ,2004,343:712 - 724.
[10] Lo S M, Fang Z, Lin P, Zhi G S. An evacuation model: the SGEM package[J].Fire Safety Journal, 2004, 39:169- 190.
[11] Antonini G, Bierlaire M, Weber M. Simulation of Pedestrian Behaviour using a Discrete Choice Model Calibrated on Actual Motion Data [C]. 4th STRC Swiss Transport Research Conference, 2004.
[12] Antonini G, Bierlaire M, Weber M. Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior [J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2006,40(8): 667 - 687.
[13] Georgiadou P S, Papazoglou I A, Kiranoudis C T, Markatos N C. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2007,92(10):1388-1402.
[14] Pan X S, Han C S, Dauber K, Law K H. Human and social behavior in computational modeling and analysis of egress[J]. Automation in Construction, 2006, 15:448-461.
[15] Shields T J, Boyce K E, Silcock G W H. Towards the Characterization of Large Retail Stores[J]. Fire and Materials, 2000,23:325-331.
[16] Benthorn L, Frantzich H. Fire Alarm in a Public Building: How do People Evaluate Information and Choose an Evacuation Exit?[J]. Fire and Materials, 1999,23:311-315.
[17] Kirchner A, Klupfel H, Nishinari K, Schadschneider A, Schreckenberg M. Simulation of competitive egress behavior: comparison with aircraft evacuation data[J]. Physica A, 2003, 324:689 - 697.
[18] Lo S M, Huang H C, Wang P, Yuen K K.A game theory based exit selection model for evacuation[J].Fire Safety Journal, 2006,41:364 - 369.
[19] Sime J D. An occupant response shelter escape time (ORSET) model [J]. Safety Science, 2001, 38(2):109-125.
[20]Ozel F.Time pressure and stress as a factor during emergency egress[J].Safety Science,2001,38(2):95-107.
[21]Shields T J,Boyce K E.A study of evacuation from large retail stores[J].Fire Safety Journal,2000,35:25-49.
[22]Helbing D,Farkas I,Vicsek T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic[J].Nature,2000,407:487-490.
[23]Helbing D,Molnar P.Social force model for pedestrian dynamics[J].Physical Review E,1995,51(5):4282-4286.
[24]Helbing D,Buzna L,Johansson A,et al.Self-organized pedestrian crowd dynamics:experiments,simulations,and design solutions[J].Transportation Science,2005,39(1):1-24.
[25]Werner T,Helbing D.The social force pedestrian model applied to real life scenarios.In:Galea E R(Ed.),Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics,London:CMS Press,21-58.
[26]Graat E,Midden C,Bockholts P.Complex evacuation;effects of motivation level and slope of stairs on emergency egress time in a sports stadium[J].Safety Science,31(1999) 127-141.
[27]Proulx G.Understanding Human Behaviour in Stressful Situations[R].Workshop to Identify Innovative Research Needs to Foster Improved Fire Safety in the United States,National Academy of Sciences,Delegate Binder Section 7,Washington,D.C.,2002,1-5.
[28]Sime J D.Crowd psychology and engineering[J].Safety Science,1995,21:1-14.
[29]Clarke L.Panic:Myth or Reality[J].Contexts,2002,1(3):21-6.
[30]Quarantelli E L.The sociology of panic[A].In:Baltes P B,Smelser N.International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences[C].New York:Pergamon Press,2001,11020-11030.
[31]Sherif M.The psychology of social norms[M],New York:Harper,1936.
[32]Asch S E.Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments[A].In:Guetzkow H.Groups,leadership,and men[c].Pittsburgh,PA(USA):Carnegie Press,1951,177-190.
[33]秦启文,周永康.公众在突发事件中的负面心理反应解构[J].西南师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2006,32(1):86-91.
[34]Quarantelli E L.Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities[J].Sociai Research,2008,75(3):873-904.
[35]吴国宏,刘丝纬,张莹,等.现代城市灾难结构与心理反应特点.心理科学,2006,29(1):181-184.
[36]Mawson A R.Understanding mass panic and other collective responses to threat and disaster[J].Psychiatry,2005,68(2):95-113.
[37]Saraf S,Karanjikar M.Literary and economic impact of the Bhopal gas tragedy[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18:274-282.
[38]Glass T A,Schoch-Spana M.Bioterrorism and the people:how to vaccinate a city against panic[J].Clinical Infectious Diseases,2002,34:217-23.
[39]Kirchner A,Schadschneider A.Simulation of evacuation processes using a bionics-inspired cellular automaton model for pedestrian dynamics[J].Physica A,2002,312:260-276.
[40]Shaw R.Don't panic:behaviour in major incidents[J].Disaster Prevention and Management,2001,10(1):5-10.
[41]Yuan W F,Tan K H.An evacuation model using cellular automata[J].Physica A,2007,384:549 -566.
[42] Drury J, Winter G. Social identity as a source of strength in mass emergencies and other crowd events[J]. International Journal of Mental Health, 2003, 32(4):77 - 93.
[43] Basar T, Olsder GJ. Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory[M]. Philadelphia: SIAM, 1982.