三峡枢纽区域运输组织优化及模拟
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摘要
近年来,由于经济的高速增长和西部大开发战略的实施,长江航运呈现出持续快速发展的良好态势,在此背景下,三峡枢纽通过能力不足的问题日益凸显,如何充分运用既定的运输网络,提出有效的运输组织方案,使整个三峡枢纽运输通畅,是值得研究的问题。本研究从运输OD分布的推算入手,综合运用多用户多模式网络均衡原理和计算机仿真技术,用定量的方法对混合网络上运输组织方案进行优化。
论文首先对水运通道上的运输OD矩阵的推算做了研究。作为OD矩阵推算的铺垫,讨论了港口吞吐量预测的常用方法,然后基于对各种OD反推理论的分析和比较,最终选择了代数法作为水运航道OD矩阵推算方法,并对该方法在水运通道OD矩阵推算方面的应用做了详细讨论。
在研究了航道OD矩阵推算的基础上,本文进一步对多用户多模式网络均衡理论应用在混合运输网络上的方法进行了研究。针对三峡枢纽区域,提出了在水运和公路网上应用多用户多模式网络均衡理论的假设前提和多方式运输等效替代方法,并介绍了Transcad中的MMA分配机制。
作为对多用户多模式运输分配法的补充,论文还对三峡枢纽区域一定范围内的运输情况进行了计算机仿真建模研究,在界定系统边界,分析过坝等运输活动流程的基础上,用面向对象的思路,基于Arena建立了三峡枢纽区域运输的仿真模型。该模型可以将运输组织方案用参数的形式输入仿真模型,经过分析仿真得到的输出参数对运输组织方案进行评价,然后提出改进的运输组织方案。通过对多个改进方案进行模拟评价,可以得到较为合理的运输组织方案。
最后,论文以三峡运输枢纽区域一定范围为界,以2010年的运输需求为背景,对上述研究成果进行了实例应用,首先用“双向航道OD推算法”推算得到了各货类万州港上游断面到荆州港下游断面范围的长江干线运输OD矩阵,再缩小研究范围,用Transcad的MMA分配模型,将推算得到的OD量分配到综合网络上,得到了初步运输组织方案。然后将该方案输入仿真模型,通过仿真运算发现了组织方案的不足,提出改进方案,通过对改进方案进行研究,发现了货物翻坝比例和锚地等待时间的量化关系。以上案例应用证明了本文的理论研究具有一定的可操作性和正确性。
In recent years, as the rapid growth of economy and the implement of western development strategy, the Yangtze River Shipping has presented a good situation of sustainable and fast development. Under this background, the capability failure of the Three Gorges Dam is getting severer day by day. How to make full use of the established transport network and propose effective transport organization programs to smooth the transportation system of the Three Gorges region is a question which is worth studying.
In this study, the OD distribution of the transportation system was analyzed first. Then the integrated use of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory and computer simulation technology was taken as a quantitative method to optimize the transport programs for hybrid network.
The estimation of the water transportation channel's transportation OD distribution is analyzed in the paper. Firstly, some common forecast methods of port throughput were discussed. Based on a comparative research on the common forecast methods, algebraic approach was chosen to estimate transportation OD matrix in the water channel, and the applications of the algebraic OD estimation method in water channel were discussed finally.
Based on the research of the OD estimation of water transportation channel, the application of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory on the mix transport network was analyzed further. In view of the Three Gorges Dam, the hypothesis premise of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory on the water and road transport network and the equivalent substitution method of the multi-mode transportation. Then the MMA mechanism in the software Transcad was introduced.
As a supplement of the multi-user multi-mode network distribution theory, a computer simulation model was established to simulate the transportation situation of a certain scope of the Three Gorges Dam region. Based on the definition of the system boundary and the analysis of the transportation activity process, a simulation model of the Three Gorges Dam transportation system was built with the Arena according to the object-oriented method. The simulation model is worked by imputing the parameters of the transportation organization program and outputting the operation parameters of the Three Gorges Dam transportation system.
So it is simple and convenient to evaluate and analyze and improve the transportation organization program. Based on the simulation and evaluation of the multiple improved the transportation organization programs, a relatively reasonable one can be obtained.
Finally, after defining certain scope of the Three Gorges Dam region as the system boundary and the transportation demand in 2010 as the data foundation. A application research was conducted with the above research results: The "two-way channel OD calculating method" was used to estimate the OD matrix of all kinds of goods in the Yangtze River trunk, from upstream of the Wanzhou Port to the downstream of the Jinzhou Port. Then the MMA model in Transcad was used to assign the estimated OD matrix on comprehensive network and the preliminary transportation organization program was obtained and imported to the simulation model. Then the insufficiency of the preliminary program was found. After simulate a series of improving programs, the regression model of the ratio of the dam passing and the waiting time in the anchorage was established with the comparison of the different improved programs, this model can be used to direct the optimization of Transportation organization. The case study indicated that this article theory achievement has certain feasibility and the accuracy to the relevant research.
论文首先对水运通道上的运输OD矩阵的推算做了研究。作为OD矩阵推算的铺垫,讨论了港口吞吐量预测的常用方法,然后基于对各种OD反推理论的分析和比较,最终选择了代数法作为水运航道OD矩阵推算方法,并对该方法在水运通道OD矩阵推算方面的应用做了详细讨论。
在研究了航道OD矩阵推算的基础上,本文进一步对多用户多模式网络均衡理论应用在混合运输网络上的方法进行了研究。针对三峡枢纽区域,提出了在水运和公路网上应用多用户多模式网络均衡理论的假设前提和多方式运输等效替代方法,并介绍了Transcad中的MMA分配机制。
作为对多用户多模式运输分配法的补充,论文还对三峡枢纽区域一定范围内的运输情况进行了计算机仿真建模研究,在界定系统边界,分析过坝等运输活动流程的基础上,用面向对象的思路,基于Arena建立了三峡枢纽区域运输的仿真模型。该模型可以将运输组织方案用参数的形式输入仿真模型,经过分析仿真得到的输出参数对运输组织方案进行评价,然后提出改进的运输组织方案。通过对多个改进方案进行模拟评价,可以得到较为合理的运输组织方案。
最后,论文以三峡运输枢纽区域一定范围为界,以2010年的运输需求为背景,对上述研究成果进行了实例应用,首先用“双向航道OD推算法”推算得到了各货类万州港上游断面到荆州港下游断面范围的长江干线运输OD矩阵,再缩小研究范围,用Transcad的MMA分配模型,将推算得到的OD量分配到综合网络上,得到了初步运输组织方案。然后将该方案输入仿真模型,通过仿真运算发现了组织方案的不足,提出改进方案,通过对改进方案进行研究,发现了货物翻坝比例和锚地等待时间的量化关系。以上案例应用证明了本文的理论研究具有一定的可操作性和正确性。
In recent years, as the rapid growth of economy and the implement of western development strategy, the Yangtze River Shipping has presented a good situation of sustainable and fast development. Under this background, the capability failure of the Three Gorges Dam is getting severer day by day. How to make full use of the established transport network and propose effective transport organization programs to smooth the transportation system of the Three Gorges region is a question which is worth studying.
In this study, the OD distribution of the transportation system was analyzed first. Then the integrated use of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory and computer simulation technology was taken as a quantitative method to optimize the transport programs for hybrid network.
The estimation of the water transportation channel's transportation OD distribution is analyzed in the paper. Firstly, some common forecast methods of port throughput were discussed. Based on a comparative research on the common forecast methods, algebraic approach was chosen to estimate transportation OD matrix in the water channel, and the applications of the algebraic OD estimation method in water channel were discussed finally.
Based on the research of the OD estimation of water transportation channel, the application of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory on the mix transport network was analyzed further. In view of the Three Gorges Dam, the hypothesis premise of the multi-user multi-mode network equilibrium theory on the water and road transport network and the equivalent substitution method of the multi-mode transportation. Then the MMA mechanism in the software Transcad was introduced.
As a supplement of the multi-user multi-mode network distribution theory, a computer simulation model was established to simulate the transportation situation of a certain scope of the Three Gorges Dam region. Based on the definition of the system boundary and the analysis of the transportation activity process, a simulation model of the Three Gorges Dam transportation system was built with the Arena according to the object-oriented method. The simulation model is worked by imputing the parameters of the transportation organization program and outputting the operation parameters of the Three Gorges Dam transportation system.
So it is simple and convenient to evaluate and analyze and improve the transportation organization program. Based on the simulation and evaluation of the multiple improved the transportation organization programs, a relatively reasonable one can be obtained.
Finally, after defining certain scope of the Three Gorges Dam region as the system boundary and the transportation demand in 2010 as the data foundation. A application research was conducted with the above research results: The "two-way channel OD calculating method" was used to estimate the OD matrix of all kinds of goods in the Yangtze River trunk, from upstream of the Wanzhou Port to the downstream of the Jinzhou Port. Then the MMA model in Transcad was used to assign the estimated OD matrix on comprehensive network and the preliminary transportation organization program was obtained and imported to the simulation model. Then the insufficiency of the preliminary program was found. After simulate a series of improving programs, the regression model of the ratio of the dam passing and the waiting time in the anchorage was established with the comparison of the different improved programs, this model can be used to direct the optimization of Transportation organization. The case study indicated that this article theory achievement has certain feasibility and the accuracy to the relevant research.
引文
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[3]Michael W.Babcock,Xiaohua Lu.Forecasting inland waterway grain traffic[J]Transportation Research Part E 38,2002,65-74
[4]Hill,R.,Fruin,J.,Such,C.Bulk Commodity Barge Traffic on St.Paul District Waterways in 1985:Projections and Impacts[R].Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,MN.
[5]Tun-Hsiang Yu,Jin Zhang,Stephen Fuller.Freight Transportation Demands on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers[J].Journal of the Transportation Research Forum,2006,45(2):119-136
[6]万德香 基于四阶段法的长江铁矿石运输需求预测[J].中国高新技术企业,2008,17
[7]吴风平,周之豪.多货种OD分布方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.1998.4:53:58
[8]王炜.O-D矩阵的分类与推算[J].中国公路学报,1993,6(3):37-43
[9]帅斌,青学江,霍娅敏.通道OD矩阵推算算法的应用研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2001,36(2):121-125
[10]肖志国,区域OD矩阵反推技术评价及其理论研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[11]Javier Doblas,Francisco G.Benitez.An approach to estimating and updating origindestination matrices based upon traffic counts preserving the prior structure of a survey matrix[J].Transportation Research Part B 39(2005) 565-591
[12]Martin L.Hazelton.Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link flows on uncongested networks[J].Transportation Research Part B 34(2000) 549-566
[13]韦献兰,李海峰,耿彦斌.TransCAD平台下OD矩阵反推结果对比研究[J].公路,2007(6):122-128
[14]窦慧丽 基于站点上下客人数的公交客流OD反推方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2007,25(7):79-82
[15]刘翠,陈洪仁.公交线路客流OD矩阵推算方法研究[J].城市交通,2007,5(4):81
[16]朱从坤,丁建霆,陈瑜.公交线路OD反推的结构化模型研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,200537(6):851
[17]Jornsten K.and Nguyen S.,On the estimation of a trip matrix from network data[R].Technical Report LiTH-MAT-R-79-36,Department of Mathematics,University of inkoping,Linkoping,Sweden,1979.
[18]C.S.Fisk and D.E.Boyce.A note on trip matrix estimation from link traffic count data[J].Transportation Research 17B,1983
[19]C.S.Fisk.On combining maximum entropy trip matrix estimation with user-optimal assignment[J].Transportation Research 22B,1983
[20]H.Spiess.A maximum-likelihood model for estimating origin-destination matrices[J].Transportation Research 21B.1987
[21]M.Bell.The estimation of origin_destination matrices by constrained generalized least squares[J].Transportation Research 25B,1991
[22]Cascetta E.Estimation of trip matrices from traffic counts and survey data:A generalized least squares estimator[J].Transportation Research 18B,1984
[23]Y.Chen.Bilevel programming problems:analysis,algorithms and applications[R].PhD thesis,report CRT-984,Centre de recherche sur les transports.CRT.University of Montreal Montreal Quebec Canada,1994
[24]Bart JOURQUIN,Sabine LIMBOURG.Assignment techniques on Virtual Networks:ERSA 2003:Proceedings of 43rd European Congress of the Regional Science Association,2003[C].Finland:University of Jyv(a|¨)skyl(a|¨),2003.
[25]Rob van Nes.Multi user-class urban transit network design[C].TRB 2003 Annual Meeting CD-ROM
[26]Dipl.-Volksw.Peter Rieken,Planco Essen,ect.Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003[M].Federal Ministry of Transport,Building and Housing,11030 Berlin,2005.
[27]徐兵.多用户多准则随机交通均衡理论与应用研究——基于变分不等式方法[D].上海:复旦大学,2006.04
[28]Maria Stella FIORENZO-CATALANO,Choice Set Generation in Multi-Modal Transportation Networks[D].Delft:Delft University of Technology,2007
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