基于系统动力学的林产工业供应链库存研究
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摘要
当前我国林业正处于由传统林业向现代林业转变的关键时期,林产工业也处于蓬勃发展时期。但林业物流研究却是当前物流研究领域的薄弱环节,因而加强对林业物流的研究具有十分重要的意义。
目前,林工企业的数量日益增多,竞争逐年激烈,加之木材可代替材料的发展,更加剧其竞争激烈的程度,使得用户需求日益呈现出不确定性、多样性和动态性,造成诸多林工企业面临生存的考验。因而,林工企业如何适应市场冲击及谋求自身发展创新已成为当前企业经营者和研究人员的首要议题。
供应链库存管理作为一种先进的管理技术,可以明显改善企业经营绩效并提高管理水平,受到学术界和企业界广泛重视。因而,本文将主要研究对象定位于林产工业供应链库存控制模式,并以系统动力学理论作为本文的研究方法。
本文首先简要介绍了系统动力学的相关理论,并论述了其在供应链库存控制中应用的可行性。而后,以宏观视角分析林工产业的市场生存环境——木材供需关系,预测供给、需求、价格三者的变化趋势。最后,在宏观环境背景下,从微观视角深入林工产业的主体——木材加工企业,分析其经营环境,构建传统库存管理模式(Customer Managed Inventory,CMI)与供应商管理库存模式(Vendor Managed Inventory,VMI)的动态模型,并仿真两种模式在不同需求情况下的实际运作,比较两种模式对企业库存水平的影响差异。
本文在模型构建方法上,采用了系统动力学的建模及分析方法,有别于传统纯数学建模的方法。通过建立系统流图,采用统计或经验方法对因果关系进行量化,进而建立一系列系统动力学方程,并对其模型进行效度测试,最后仿真库存系统运行。此法使得库存系统内部结构更为清晰,各因素之间相互作用、相互影响的因果关系更加明了,也避免了过分追求“最优解”而导致对系统整体性的忽视。
作者在此运用系统动力学的基本原理和方法对林产工业供应链库存控制模式进行仿真研究,旨在对林业物流研究做一种新的尝试。对林业物流的认识是一个不断深入的过程,现今林业物流系统仍需要进一步完善,因此对于林业物流研究,今后还有待于进一步深入探讨。
Currently, China forestry is lied to a key period when it will transit traditional forestry to modern forestry. And China forestry products industry is also lied to a rapid developing period. However, forestry logistics research is a current weak point in logistics research field. So it is a significant meaning that strengthens forestry logistics research.
Nowadays, as the quantities of forestry products enterprise become more and more, the competition among enterprises become increasingly fierce. In addition, the effect of the development on the research and application of wood substitute intensifies the degree of market competition, customer requirement also presents the following characteristics such as uncertain, multiform and dynamic, and its character makes many enterprises have to confront with survival test. Thus, how to make forestry products enterprises keep developing in the market plight is a pop issue to the enterprise executives and research scholars.
Supply chain management that is an advanced managing technology enters the researchers'studying view. So, in this paper, the main research object is the inventory control pattern of forestry products industry. And this paper is based on the theory of System Dynamics and the method of designing S.D model.
In the beginning of this thesis, the author introduces related theory of S.D briefly and dissertates the feasibility that people apply S.D to solve the problem about inventory control in supply chain. Then, firstly, from macro hiberarchy of research problem, the author analyzes the market survival circumstance, namely the relationship between supply and demand on timber, then forecasts the change trends among supply, demand and price. Finally, under the background of macro environment, from micro hiberarchy of research problem, the author studies deeply the main body of forestry products industry, namely wood processing enterprises, analyzes their operation circumstance, then, builds the dynamic models of customer managed inventory and vendor managed inventory and uses two models to simulate real enterprise operation in the different requirement scenes and compare the difference of enterprises'inventory effect between CMI and VMI.
In the aspect of the method of building models, the author adopt the method of System dynamics to make models in this paper to differentiate from traditional pure mathematical models. Through building system flow map, the internal structures of inventory system become clearer than traditional mathematical method. And correlation and interaction of each factor become more clear. It avoids that people pursue result optimization to neglect the property of system integer. Then use statistical and experiential method to quantify each causal factor and build equations of System Dynamics. Operate models and test their validity. Finally, simulate inventory system and analyze the circulating results.
To apply the basic principle and method of S.D to research and simulate inventory control pattern of forestry products industry supply chain, the author expects to acquire a new research routine of forestry logistics.
The understanding of logistics in Forestry is a process of continuous in-depth understanding, forestry logistics system itself is a process of continuous self-improvement, so forestry logistics, especially for rural forestry logistics needs to be further in-depth study.
目前,林工企业的数量日益增多,竞争逐年激烈,加之木材可代替材料的发展,更加剧其竞争激烈的程度,使得用户需求日益呈现出不确定性、多样性和动态性,造成诸多林工企业面临生存的考验。因而,林工企业如何适应市场冲击及谋求自身发展创新已成为当前企业经营者和研究人员的首要议题。
供应链库存管理作为一种先进的管理技术,可以明显改善企业经营绩效并提高管理水平,受到学术界和企业界广泛重视。因而,本文将主要研究对象定位于林产工业供应链库存控制模式,并以系统动力学理论作为本文的研究方法。
本文首先简要介绍了系统动力学的相关理论,并论述了其在供应链库存控制中应用的可行性。而后,以宏观视角分析林工产业的市场生存环境——木材供需关系,预测供给、需求、价格三者的变化趋势。最后,在宏观环境背景下,从微观视角深入林工产业的主体——木材加工企业,分析其经营环境,构建传统库存管理模式(Customer Managed Inventory,CMI)与供应商管理库存模式(Vendor Managed Inventory,VMI)的动态模型,并仿真两种模式在不同需求情况下的实际运作,比较两种模式对企业库存水平的影响差异。
本文在模型构建方法上,采用了系统动力学的建模及分析方法,有别于传统纯数学建模的方法。通过建立系统流图,采用统计或经验方法对因果关系进行量化,进而建立一系列系统动力学方程,并对其模型进行效度测试,最后仿真库存系统运行。此法使得库存系统内部结构更为清晰,各因素之间相互作用、相互影响的因果关系更加明了,也避免了过分追求“最优解”而导致对系统整体性的忽视。
作者在此运用系统动力学的基本原理和方法对林产工业供应链库存控制模式进行仿真研究,旨在对林业物流研究做一种新的尝试。对林业物流的认识是一个不断深入的过程,现今林业物流系统仍需要进一步完善,因此对于林业物流研究,今后还有待于进一步深入探讨。
Currently, China forestry is lied to a key period when it will transit traditional forestry to modern forestry. And China forestry products industry is also lied to a rapid developing period. However, forestry logistics research is a current weak point in logistics research field. So it is a significant meaning that strengthens forestry logistics research.
Nowadays, as the quantities of forestry products enterprise become more and more, the competition among enterprises become increasingly fierce. In addition, the effect of the development on the research and application of wood substitute intensifies the degree of market competition, customer requirement also presents the following characteristics such as uncertain, multiform and dynamic, and its character makes many enterprises have to confront with survival test. Thus, how to make forestry products enterprises keep developing in the market plight is a pop issue to the enterprise executives and research scholars.
Supply chain management that is an advanced managing technology enters the researchers'studying view. So, in this paper, the main research object is the inventory control pattern of forestry products industry. And this paper is based on the theory of System Dynamics and the method of designing S.D model.
In the beginning of this thesis, the author introduces related theory of S.D briefly and dissertates the feasibility that people apply S.D to solve the problem about inventory control in supply chain. Then, firstly, from macro hiberarchy of research problem, the author analyzes the market survival circumstance, namely the relationship between supply and demand on timber, then forecasts the change trends among supply, demand and price. Finally, under the background of macro environment, from micro hiberarchy of research problem, the author studies deeply the main body of forestry products industry, namely wood processing enterprises, analyzes their operation circumstance, then, builds the dynamic models of customer managed inventory and vendor managed inventory and uses two models to simulate real enterprise operation in the different requirement scenes and compare the difference of enterprises'inventory effect between CMI and VMI.
In the aspect of the method of building models, the author adopt the method of System dynamics to make models in this paper to differentiate from traditional pure mathematical models. Through building system flow map, the internal structures of inventory system become clearer than traditional mathematical method. And correlation and interaction of each factor become more clear. It avoids that people pursue result optimization to neglect the property of system integer. Then use statistical and experiential method to quantify each causal factor and build equations of System Dynamics. Operate models and test their validity. Finally, simulate inventory system and analyze the circulating results.
To apply the basic principle and method of S.D to research and simulate inventory control pattern of forestry products industry supply chain, the author expects to acquire a new research routine of forestry logistics.
The understanding of logistics in Forestry is a process of continuous in-depth understanding, forestry logistics system itself is a process of continuous self-improvement, so forestry logistics, especially for rural forestry logistics needs to be further in-depth study.
引文
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