基于GIS的浙江省土地利用变化研究
|
摘要
土地利用/土地覆盖变化是近年来地理学界研究的热点。我国东部经济发达地区人地矛盾十分突出,土地动态变化及其驱动力研究对保护和合理利用其有限的耕地资源具有重要意义。随着科技的发展,遥感(RS)与地理信息系统(GIS)在土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)上的研究日益成熟。通过RS与GIS技术的运用,可以方便快捷、省时省力地对土地利用变化进行有效的监测。
本研究将RS、GIS技术与统计方法综合运用。首先,通过对2000年、2005年和2008年三期遥感影像数据进行人机交互解译,建立了2000年至2008年浙江省耕地动态变化数据库。其次,建立各土地利用类型间的转移矩阵、单一土地利用类型动态度模型和综合土地利用动态度模型,对浙江省土地利用变化方式进行了分析。最后,以浙江省耕地变化为例,详细论述了其时空变化过程,借助于多元线性回归和Markov方法预测了研究区域的耕地变化趋势,并利用主成分分析法及岭回归分析法定量研究了耕地变化的驱动力及其特征。
研究结果表明,2000~2008年间浙江省各类单一土地利用类型动态度分别为:K_(耕地) =-1.44%, K_(林地) =-0.1%, K_(草地) =0.34%, K_(水域)=1.52%, K_(未利用地) =0.5%,K_(城乡工矿居民用地) =10.79%;综合土地利用动态度为0.271%。就浙江省耕地而言,2000 ~2005年及2005~2008年两阶段,耕地年动态度分别为-1.42%和-1.46%,多年平均为-1.44%,耕地主要转变为城乡工矿居民用地。耕地减少的驱动力研究结果表明:与20世纪比较,新增的非农人口比例、房地产开发投资、城市绿化面积驱动因子与传统的果园面积驱动因子一起,构成了21世纪初浙江省乃至东部发达地区耕地变化的主要驱动力。
The land use/land cover change (LUCC) is the research heat point of geographical circles in recent years. The contradiction between people and land is conspicuous in the developed areas of East China. The study on land dynamic change and their driving forces of the developed areas in the eastern part of China is of great help to protect and reasonably use the limited cultivated land resources. With the development of technology, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) used on LUCC are becoming more and more mature. The effective monitor carried out by means of RS and GIS is convenient and time-saving.
Firstly, in the support of RS and GIS technology, images of 2000, 2005 and 2008 were employed. According to the human-computer-interaction interpretation, the cultivated land dynamic change database of Zhejiang province between 2000 and 2008 was established. Secondly, with the help of land transition matrix, single 1and use type model and comprehensive 1and use type model, the paper researched the land change of Zhejiang. At last, taking the cultivated land for example, the paper researched the temporal-spatial character in detail and predicted the area of cultivated land in the future by means of the linear regression and Markov method. Meanwhile, the driving forces index of cultivated land change was also studied by using principal components analysis method and ridge regression analysis method.
The results showed that the land change of Zhejiang Province was obvious during the study, the dynamic degree of cultivated land between 2000 and 2008 was -1.44%, while the value of forest was -0.1%, the value of grass land was 0.34%, the value of water was 1.52%, the value of residential and residential and industrial land was 10.79%, and the value of unused land was 0.5%. The value of comprehensive 1and use change was 0.271%. To the cultivated land solely, the change was obvious, the dynamic degree of 2000~2005 step was -1.42%, while the dynamic degree of 2005~2008 step was -1.46%, and the population mean value is -1.44%. Most of the changed cultivated land was turned into residential and industrial land. Compared with the 20th century, the new factors, non-agricultural population ratio, real estate development investment, urban green coverage area, together with the traditional orchard area factor, consisted of the main driving forces of cultivated land change of Zhejiang province and even the developed areas of East China in the early 21st century.
本研究将RS、GIS技术与统计方法综合运用。首先,通过对2000年、2005年和2008年三期遥感影像数据进行人机交互解译,建立了2000年至2008年浙江省耕地动态变化数据库。其次,建立各土地利用类型间的转移矩阵、单一土地利用类型动态度模型和综合土地利用动态度模型,对浙江省土地利用变化方式进行了分析。最后,以浙江省耕地变化为例,详细论述了其时空变化过程,借助于多元线性回归和Markov方法预测了研究区域的耕地变化趋势,并利用主成分分析法及岭回归分析法定量研究了耕地变化的驱动力及其特征。
研究结果表明,2000~2008年间浙江省各类单一土地利用类型动态度分别为:K_(耕地) =-1.44%, K_(林地) =-0.1%, K_(草地) =0.34%, K_(水域)=1.52%, K_(未利用地) =0.5%,K_(城乡工矿居民用地) =10.79%;综合土地利用动态度为0.271%。就浙江省耕地而言,2000 ~2005年及2005~2008年两阶段,耕地年动态度分别为-1.42%和-1.46%,多年平均为-1.44%,耕地主要转变为城乡工矿居民用地。耕地减少的驱动力研究结果表明:与20世纪比较,新增的非农人口比例、房地产开发投资、城市绿化面积驱动因子与传统的果园面积驱动因子一起,构成了21世纪初浙江省乃至东部发达地区耕地变化的主要驱动力。
The land use/land cover change (LUCC) is the research heat point of geographical circles in recent years. The contradiction between people and land is conspicuous in the developed areas of East China. The study on land dynamic change and their driving forces of the developed areas in the eastern part of China is of great help to protect and reasonably use the limited cultivated land resources. With the development of technology, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) used on LUCC are becoming more and more mature. The effective monitor carried out by means of RS and GIS is convenient and time-saving.
Firstly, in the support of RS and GIS technology, images of 2000, 2005 and 2008 were employed. According to the human-computer-interaction interpretation, the cultivated land dynamic change database of Zhejiang province between 2000 and 2008 was established. Secondly, with the help of land transition matrix, single 1and use type model and comprehensive 1and use type model, the paper researched the land change of Zhejiang. At last, taking the cultivated land for example, the paper researched the temporal-spatial character in detail and predicted the area of cultivated land in the future by means of the linear regression and Markov method. Meanwhile, the driving forces index of cultivated land change was also studied by using principal components analysis method and ridge regression analysis method.
The results showed that the land change of Zhejiang Province was obvious during the study, the dynamic degree of cultivated land between 2000 and 2008 was -1.44%, while the value of forest was -0.1%, the value of grass land was 0.34%, the value of water was 1.52%, the value of residential and residential and industrial land was 10.79%, and the value of unused land was 0.5%. The value of comprehensive 1and use change was 0.271%. To the cultivated land solely, the change was obvious, the dynamic degree of 2000~2005 step was -1.42%, while the dynamic degree of 2005~2008 step was -1.46%, and the population mean value is -1.44%. Most of the changed cultivated land was turned into residential and industrial land. Compared with the 20th century, the new factors, non-agricultural population ratio, real estate development investment, urban green coverage area, together with the traditional orchard area factor, consisted of the main driving forces of cultivated land change of Zhejiang province and even the developed areas of East China in the early 21st century.
引文
[1] CP Lo. And Yang X, Drivers of Land-Use/Land-Cover changes and dynamic modeling for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area[J].Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing,2002,68(10),1073-1082.
[2] Emilio F.Moran. News on the land project [J]. Global Change News letter, 2003 (54):19-21.
[3] Eric F Lambin, Turner B L, elmut J Geist. Global environment change: moving beyond the myths [J]. Global Environment Change, 2001, 1:263-268.
[4] Lmbemon, J.1999. Pattern and development of changes in the Kenyan highlands since the 1950s [J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 76:67-73.
[5] Masek J G, Lindsay F E, Goward S N, Dynamics of urban in the Washington DC metropolitan area, 1973~1996, from Landsat observations[J], International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2000, 21(18),3473-3486.
[6] Meyer W B, Turner I B L .Change in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
[7] Skole D, Tucker, C. Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon : Satellite data from1978~1988[J].Science, 1993, 260:1905-1910.
[8] Thomson, C.N., Hardin P.2000.Remote sensing/GIS integration to identify Potential low~income housing sites [J].Cities17 (2):97-109.
[9] Town shend J R G, Just ice C O, Kalb V T. Characterization and classification of South America land cover types using satellite data [J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1987, 8:1189~1207.
[10] Tucker C J, Town shend J R G, Goff T E. Africa land cover classification using satellite data [J]. Science, 1985, 227:369-375.
[11] Turner B L, Meyer W B. Land use and land cover in global environmental change: considerations for study [J]. International Social Science Journal, 1991, 130:669-680.
[12] Turner B L, Moss RH, Skole D. Relating land use and global land cover change: a proposal for an IGBP-HDP core project[R]. International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Report No.24, Stockholm.1993.
[13] Turner I B L. Local faces, global flow: the role of land use and land cover in global environmental change [J].Land Degradation and Rehabilitation, 1994(5):71-78.
[14] TurnerⅡB L,David Skole,Steven Sanderson. Land use and land cover change (LUCC): Science/Research Plan. IGBP Reports No.35. 1995.
[15] Walker, R.T. Land use transition and deforestation in developing countries [J]. Geographical Analysis, 1997, 19:18-30.
[16] Zhuang Dafang,Liu Jiyuan. Modeling of regional differentiation of land-use degree in China [J]. Chinese Geographical Science,1997,7(4):302-309.
[17]陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.LUCC研究的最新进展评述[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):22-29.
[18]郭杰,欧名豪,刘琼等.江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究.长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):139-145.
[19]郭秀花,赵连伟.SAS 6.11版岭回归分析程序设计及其实例分析.数理统计与管理,2001,20(1):41-44.
[20]韩玲.关于遥感影像几何校正中纠正变换方法的探讨[J].西安地质学院学报,1997,19 (4) :86-90.
[21]何春阳,史培军,陈晋等.北京地区土地利用/覆盖变化研究[J].地理研究,2001,20(6):679~687.
[22]何书金,李秀彬,朱会义,张明.环渤海地区耕地变化及动因分析[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3):345-352.
[23]胡焕庸.中国之农业区划[J].地理学报, 1936,3(l):1-17.
[24]李建利.人机交互式多波段数字图像解译技术方法研究[J] .测绘标准,1999,15(2):13-15.
[25]李静,赵庚星,范瑞彬.黄河三角洲土地利用及土地覆盖变化驱动力分析[J] .西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版)。2003,31(3):117-122.
[26]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4):329-333.
[27]李学梅,李忠峰.土地利用/覆盖变化研究进展及其意义[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(6):2462-2464.
[28]李玉霞,李丽,郑泽忠.CBERS-02图像在土地利用/覆盖动态监测中的应用[J].四川师范大学学报(自然科学版).2006, 29(5):627-630.
[29]蔺卿,罗格平,陈曦.LUCC马区动力模型研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2005,24(5):79-87.
[30]刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究—基于卫星遥感数据[J] .第四纪研究,2000,20(3):229-239.
[31]刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良,匡文慧,周万村,张树文,李仁东,颜长珍,于东升,吴世新,江南.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1411-1420.
[32]刘志丽,陈曦.基于ERDAS IMAGINE软件的TM影像几何精校正方法初探——以塔里木流域为例[J ].干旱区地理,2001,24 (4) :353-358.
[33]龙开胜,陈利根,李明艳.三峡库区近50年间土地利用/覆被变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,17(4):579-583.
[34]马英.四川省土地利用时空变化研究[D].四川农业大学硕士论文,2004.
[35]毛小军,陈腊娇,孙华等.浙江省耕地资源时空变化的驱动力分析及对策研究[J].浙江师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2006,29(2):201-207.
[36]倪绍样.1999,土地利用类型与土地评价概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
[37]任美锷.1950,四川省农作物生产力的地理分布[J].地理学报16(1):1-22.
[38]任美锷.1952,我对于“四川省农作物生产力的地理分布”一文的检讨[J] .地理学报,18(3-4):121-122.
[39]邵怀勇,仙巍,杨武年,周万村.三峡库区近50年间土地利用/覆被变化[J].应用生态学报,2002,19(2):453-458.
[40]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J] .地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[41]谭少华,倪绍祥,赵万民.江苏省土地利用变化及其驱动机理研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(5):50-54.
[42]王繁,周斌,蒋钏.浙江沿海地区近十年土地利用/覆盖变化遥感监测研究[J].科技通报,2007,23(3):332-341.
[43]吴传钧主编(l:100万中国土地利用图编辑委员会).1990,1:100万中国土地利用图.北京:科学出版社.
[44]席武俊.基于RS与GIS技术的县域土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究方法与实践[D] .四川云南师范大学硕士论文,2005.
[45]夏淑芳,许红卫,王珂,高克异.浙江省耕地数量演变及其驱动力研究[J] .科技通报,2006,22,3:345-351.
[46]熊鹰,王克林,吕辉红,许联芳.湖南省耕地动态变化及驱动机制研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(1):26-30.
[47]杨桄,刘湘南.遥感影像解译的研究现状和发展趋势[J].国土资源遥感,2004,2:7-10.
[48]张树文,张养贞,李颖,常丽萍.东北地区土地利用/覆被时空特征分析[M].2006,北京:科学出版社.
[49]赵威,宫辉力,李小娟,安炜.北京市郊城市化过程土地利用变化研究[J].河北农业大学学报,2008,31(2):101-105.
[50]浙江统计局.浙江统计年鉴(2001～2009)[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2009.
[51]郑国强,江南,史同广.长江三角洲土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(6):18-22.
[52]周炳中,赵其国,杨浩.江苏省耕地变化及其驱动机制的数理探讨[J].土壤学报,2003,9(40):665-671.
[53]周峰,濮励杰,彭补拙.苏锡常地区土地利用变化及其绩效分析[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(3):392-400.
[54]周立三,佘之祥.中国农业地理和土地利用的近期研究[J].地理学报,1990,45(2):146-153.
[55]邹亚荣,赵晓丽,张增祥,王长有,刘斌.华北土地利用十年动态特征分析[J] .地理科学进展,2003,22(3):158-163.
[2] Emilio F.Moran. News on the land project [J]. Global Change News letter, 2003 (54):19-21.
[3] Eric F Lambin, Turner B L, elmut J Geist. Global environment change: moving beyond the myths [J]. Global Environment Change, 2001, 1:263-268.
[4] Lmbemon, J.1999. Pattern and development of changes in the Kenyan highlands since the 1950s [J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 76:67-73.
[5] Masek J G, Lindsay F E, Goward S N, Dynamics of urban in the Washington DC metropolitan area, 1973~1996, from Landsat observations[J], International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2000, 21(18),3473-3486.
[6] Meyer W B, Turner I B L .Change in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
[7] Skole D, Tucker, C. Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon : Satellite data from1978~1988[J].Science, 1993, 260:1905-1910.
[8] Thomson, C.N., Hardin P.2000.Remote sensing/GIS integration to identify Potential low~income housing sites [J].Cities17 (2):97-109.
[9] Town shend J R G, Just ice C O, Kalb V T. Characterization and classification of South America land cover types using satellite data [J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1987, 8:1189~1207.
[10] Tucker C J, Town shend J R G, Goff T E. Africa land cover classification using satellite data [J]. Science, 1985, 227:369-375.
[11] Turner B L, Meyer W B. Land use and land cover in global environmental change: considerations for study [J]. International Social Science Journal, 1991, 130:669-680.
[12] Turner B L, Moss RH, Skole D. Relating land use and global land cover change: a proposal for an IGBP-HDP core project[R]. International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Report No.24, Stockholm.1993.
[13] Turner I B L. Local faces, global flow: the role of land use and land cover in global environmental change [J].Land Degradation and Rehabilitation, 1994(5):71-78.
[14] TurnerⅡB L,David Skole,Steven Sanderson. Land use and land cover change (LUCC): Science/Research Plan. IGBP Reports No.35. 1995.
[15] Walker, R.T. Land use transition and deforestation in developing countries [J]. Geographical Analysis, 1997, 19:18-30.
[16] Zhuang Dafang,Liu Jiyuan. Modeling of regional differentiation of land-use degree in China [J]. Chinese Geographical Science,1997,7(4):302-309.
[17]陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.LUCC研究的最新进展评述[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):22-29.
[18]郭杰,欧名豪,刘琼等.江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究.长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):139-145.
[19]郭秀花,赵连伟.SAS 6.11版岭回归分析程序设计及其实例分析.数理统计与管理,2001,20(1):41-44.
[20]韩玲.关于遥感影像几何校正中纠正变换方法的探讨[J].西安地质学院学报,1997,19 (4) :86-90.
[21]何春阳,史培军,陈晋等.北京地区土地利用/覆盖变化研究[J].地理研究,2001,20(6):679~687.
[22]何书金,李秀彬,朱会义,张明.环渤海地区耕地变化及动因分析[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3):345-352.
[23]胡焕庸.中国之农业区划[J].地理学报, 1936,3(l):1-17.
[24]李建利.人机交互式多波段数字图像解译技术方法研究[J] .测绘标准,1999,15(2):13-15.
[25]李静,赵庚星,范瑞彬.黄河三角洲土地利用及土地覆盖变化驱动力分析[J] .西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版)。2003,31(3):117-122.
[26]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4):329-333.
[27]李学梅,李忠峰.土地利用/覆盖变化研究进展及其意义[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(6):2462-2464.
[28]李玉霞,李丽,郑泽忠.CBERS-02图像在土地利用/覆盖动态监测中的应用[J].四川师范大学学报(自然科学版).2006, 29(5):627-630.
[29]蔺卿,罗格平,陈曦.LUCC马区动力模型研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2005,24(5):79-87.
[30]刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究—基于卫星遥感数据[J] .第四纪研究,2000,20(3):229-239.
[31]刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良,匡文慧,周万村,张树文,李仁东,颜长珍,于东升,吴世新,江南.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1411-1420.
[32]刘志丽,陈曦.基于ERDAS IMAGINE软件的TM影像几何精校正方法初探——以塔里木流域为例[J ].干旱区地理,2001,24 (4) :353-358.
[33]龙开胜,陈利根,李明艳.三峡库区近50年间土地利用/覆被变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,17(4):579-583.
[34]马英.四川省土地利用时空变化研究[D].四川农业大学硕士论文,2004.
[35]毛小军,陈腊娇,孙华等.浙江省耕地资源时空变化的驱动力分析及对策研究[J].浙江师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2006,29(2):201-207.
[36]倪绍样.1999,土地利用类型与土地评价概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
[37]任美锷.1950,四川省农作物生产力的地理分布[J].地理学报16(1):1-22.
[38]任美锷.1952,我对于“四川省农作物生产力的地理分布”一文的检讨[J] .地理学报,18(3-4):121-122.
[39]邵怀勇,仙巍,杨武年,周万村.三峡库区近50年间土地利用/覆被变化[J].应用生态学报,2002,19(2):453-458.
[40]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J] .地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[41]谭少华,倪绍祥,赵万民.江苏省土地利用变化及其驱动机理研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(5):50-54.
[42]王繁,周斌,蒋钏.浙江沿海地区近十年土地利用/覆盖变化遥感监测研究[J].科技通报,2007,23(3):332-341.
[43]吴传钧主编(l:100万中国土地利用图编辑委员会).1990,1:100万中国土地利用图.北京:科学出版社.
[44]席武俊.基于RS与GIS技术的县域土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究方法与实践[D] .四川云南师范大学硕士论文,2005.
[45]夏淑芳,许红卫,王珂,高克异.浙江省耕地数量演变及其驱动力研究[J] .科技通报,2006,22,3:345-351.
[46]熊鹰,王克林,吕辉红,许联芳.湖南省耕地动态变化及驱动机制研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(1):26-30.
[47]杨桄,刘湘南.遥感影像解译的研究现状和发展趋势[J].国土资源遥感,2004,2:7-10.
[48]张树文,张养贞,李颖,常丽萍.东北地区土地利用/覆被时空特征分析[M].2006,北京:科学出版社.
[49]赵威,宫辉力,李小娟,安炜.北京市郊城市化过程土地利用变化研究[J].河北农业大学学报,2008,31(2):101-105.
[50]浙江统计局.浙江统计年鉴(2001～2009)[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2009.
[51]郑国强,江南,史同广.长江三角洲土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(6):18-22.
[52]周炳中,赵其国,杨浩.江苏省耕地变化及其驱动机制的数理探讨[J].土壤学报,2003,9(40):665-671.
[53]周峰,濮励杰,彭补拙.苏锡常地区土地利用变化及其绩效分析[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(3):392-400.
[54]周立三,佘之祥.中国农业地理和土地利用的近期研究[J].地理学报,1990,45(2):146-153.
[55]邹亚荣,赵晓丽,张增祥,王长有,刘斌.华北土地利用十年动态特征分析[J] .地理科学进展,2003,22(3):158-163.