中国婚姻教育匹配度的变化趋势及其影响因素研究
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摘要
婚姻是人类社会行为的重要部分,但经济学家对此的关注相对较少。家庭经济学的开创者——贝克尔,最先从经济学角度研究了婚姻的最优匹配问题。之后,先后有经济学家从种族、民族、教育等角度更多的角度和更深的层次拓宽了此方面的研究,提出了婚姻的教育匹配度与经济发展呈倒U型关系的判断。那么,中国的婚姻教育匹配度是否与经济发展呈现出倒U型关系?为什么现阶段中国出现较为明显的高学历女性择偶难的现象?
在总结既有研究的基础之上,利用中国建国后五十年来的相关数据,采用计量经济学的方法,分析验证发现：中国的婚姻教育匹配度的变化也与经济发展之间呈倒U型关系。同时,基于作者采集的540个家庭的微观数据,也发现：婚姻的教育匹配水平在上升的同时,配偶双方的受教育水平也在同步提高,女性向上婚的趋势较为显著。通过对中国婚姻教育匹配水平影响因素的计量分析还发现：基尼系数越高婚姻教育匹配度越高、现代化水平越高婚姻教育匹配度越小
高学历女性择偶难的主要原因在于女性向上婚的要求,这样不仅与之匹配的更高学历的男性规模有限,而且绝大多数高学历男性已经早于女性进入了婚姻市场。突破困境的主要建议是女性要根据人力资本投资和婚姻投资最优权衡的结果选择自己的受教育水平,本科学历教育可能是女性最优的受教育水平。
本文的创新点主要集中于以下四点：(1)在深化中国的婚姻教育匹配度相关理论研究的同时,更将这一理论延伸至高等教育匹配,并结合了经济学家和社会学家的不同理论,同时采用自己所采集到的微观数据加以深入研究,用来说明中国的婚姻教育匹配状况,并给出相关符合中国国情和经济学理论的相关建议；(2)验证了社会学家提出的经济发展水平与婚姻同质性呈倒U形曲线关系的假说；(3)分析了影响婚姻教育匹配的因素及其机理；(4)通过计量实证,讨论回答了部分高学历女性择偶难的原因,并提出相应对策。
Marriage is an important part of the human behavior, but economists pay little attention to it. Becker, who is the father of Family Economics, is the first man to give research on marriage's matching. Later, there were Economists expanded the research from other angles, such as race, nationality and education and so on, and then raise a sense that between the education matching of marriage and economic developing is "falled U" relationship. Then I have an interrogation, whether the relationship appears in China? Why there are so many women have difficulty in finding spouses at the present stage?
After summarizing the established research, we use China's data from it was established, and use method of econometrics and find that, the educational matching of marriage and economic development in China is also "falled U" relationship. At the same time, On the base of gathered data from 540 families, we also find that, with the degree of the education matching of marriage raising, the spouses' education degree is raising synchronously, and the trend of upwards marriage for women is evident. Through econometrics analysis for the influencing factors of China's education matching of marriage, we also find that, the higher of GINI coefficient, the higher degree of education matching, and the higher of society openness, the smaller degree of education matching.
Some women with high school record have difficulty in finding spouses, because many of them want to find better husbands, but when they find husbands after they graduate, no matter the scale of men whom matching is limited, and most of high school record men have entered marriage market before women. In order to break such predicament, we suggest that women should choose the best education degree on the base of human resources investment and marriage investment we find that undergraduate degree is the best education degree for women.
The innovation of this paper is focus on following four points:(1)after deepening interrelated matching education theory, we extend it into higher education, and combine different theories from economists and sociologists, and use data I gathered myself, in order to explain the actual situation of China's education matching of marriage, at last give some suggestions in accordance with China's basic condition or stat;(2)Verify the hypothesis that economic development and marriage homogenization shows "failed U" relationship, which sociologists raised;(3)Analyze factors and mechanism that effect education matching of marriage;(4)Use econometrics demonstration to discuss and answer why some high-education women have difficulty in finding spouses, and give some suggestions.
在总结既有研究的基础之上,利用中国建国后五十年来的相关数据,采用计量经济学的方法,分析验证发现：中国的婚姻教育匹配度的变化也与经济发展之间呈倒U型关系。同时,基于作者采集的540个家庭的微观数据,也发现：婚姻的教育匹配水平在上升的同时,配偶双方的受教育水平也在同步提高,女性向上婚的趋势较为显著。通过对中国婚姻教育匹配水平影响因素的计量分析还发现：基尼系数越高婚姻教育匹配度越高、现代化水平越高婚姻教育匹配度越小
高学历女性择偶难的主要原因在于女性向上婚的要求,这样不仅与之匹配的更高学历的男性规模有限,而且绝大多数高学历男性已经早于女性进入了婚姻市场。突破困境的主要建议是女性要根据人力资本投资和婚姻投资最优权衡的结果选择自己的受教育水平,本科学历教育可能是女性最优的受教育水平。
本文的创新点主要集中于以下四点：(1)在深化中国的婚姻教育匹配度相关理论研究的同时,更将这一理论延伸至高等教育匹配,并结合了经济学家和社会学家的不同理论,同时采用自己所采集到的微观数据加以深入研究,用来说明中国的婚姻教育匹配状况,并给出相关符合中国国情和经济学理论的相关建议；(2)验证了社会学家提出的经济发展水平与婚姻同质性呈倒U形曲线关系的假说；(3)分析了影响婚姻教育匹配的因素及其机理；(4)通过计量实证,讨论回答了部分高学历女性择偶难的原因,并提出相应对策。
Marriage is an important part of the human behavior, but economists pay little attention to it. Becker, who is the father of Family Economics, is the first man to give research on marriage's matching. Later, there were Economists expanded the research from other angles, such as race, nationality and education and so on, and then raise a sense that between the education matching of marriage and economic developing is "falled U" relationship. Then I have an interrogation, whether the relationship appears in China? Why there are so many women have difficulty in finding spouses at the present stage?
After summarizing the established research, we use China's data from it was established, and use method of econometrics and find that, the educational matching of marriage and economic development in China is also "falled U" relationship. At the same time, On the base of gathered data from 540 families, we also find that, with the degree of the education matching of marriage raising, the spouses' education degree is raising synchronously, and the trend of upwards marriage for women is evident. Through econometrics analysis for the influencing factors of China's education matching of marriage, we also find that, the higher of GINI coefficient, the higher degree of education matching, and the higher of society openness, the smaller degree of education matching.
Some women with high school record have difficulty in finding spouses, because many of them want to find better husbands, but when they find husbands after they graduate, no matter the scale of men whom matching is limited, and most of high school record men have entered marriage market before women. In order to break such predicament, we suggest that women should choose the best education degree on the base of human resources investment and marriage investment we find that undergraduate degree is the best education degree for women.
The innovation of this paper is focus on following four points:(1)after deepening interrelated matching education theory, we extend it into higher education, and combine different theories from economists and sociologists, and use data I gathered myself, in order to explain the actual situation of China's education matching of marriage, at last give some suggestions in accordance with China's basic condition or stat;(2)Verify the hypothesis that economic development and marriage homogenization shows "failed U" relationship, which sociologists raised;(3)Analyze factors and mechanism that effect education matching of marriage;(4)Use econometrics demonstration to discuss and answer why some high-education women have difficulty in finding spouses, and give some suggestions.
引文
[1]Agrestic, A.,1990.Categorical Data Analysis. Wiley,New York.
[2]Bernasco, W.,1994.Coupled Careers:The Effects of Spouse's Resources on Success at Work.Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam.
[3]Bjorklund,A.,1992. "Rising female labour force participation and distribution of family income:the Swedish experience. " Acta Sociologica 35,299-309.
[4]Blau, Peter. M. and 0. D. Duncan,1967. " The American Occupational Structure. " New York:Wiley Free Press.
[5]Blau, P. M., Schwartz, J. E.,1984. Crosscutting Social Circles. Academic press, New York.
[6]Burgess, Ernest W. and Paul Wallin,1943. " Homogamy in Social Characteristics. " American Journal of Sociology.49:109-124.
[7]Erikson, R., Goldthorpe, J.H.,1992. The Constant Flux. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
[8]Fox, T. G., Miller, S. G.,1966. " Economic, political and social determinants of mobility. " Acta Sociologica9,76-93.
[9]Gale, David and Shapley, Lloyd S,1962. "College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage. " American Mathematical Monthly,1962,69 (1), pp.9-15.
[10]Ganzeboom, H. B. G., Lui jkx, R., Treiman, D. J,1989. " Intergenerational class mobility in comparative perspective. " Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 8:3-84.
[11]Gerber, Theodore P., and Michael Hout,2004. "Tightening up:Inter-and Intragenerational Mobility in Russia,1988-2002. " American Sociological Review.69:677-703.
[12]Goodman, Leo A. (1979). "Simple Models for the Analysis of Association in Crossclassifications Having Ordered Categories. " Jounal of the American Statistical Association.74,537-552.
[13]Goodman, Leo A., and Michael Hout(1998). "Statistical Methods and Graphical Displays for Comparing How Two-Way Associations Vary among Countries, among Groups, or over Time. " Sociological Methodology. Vol.28:175-239.
[14]Goode, W. J.,1982. The Family. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,NJ.
[15]Grusky, D. B., Hauser, R. M.,1984. " Comparative social mobility revisited. " American Sociological Review 49,19-38.
[16]Hazerlrigg, L. E., Gamier, M. A.,1976. " Occupational mobility in industrialized societies:a comparable analysis of differential access to occupational ranks in seventeen countries. " American Sociological Review41,498-511.
[17]Hout, Michael,1983. Mobility Tables. Beverly Hills, CA:Sage Publications.
[18]Hunt, Thomas C,1940. "Occupational Status and Marriage Selection. " American Sociological Review.5:405-505.
[19]Jense, Arthur R,1978. "Genetic and Behavioral Effects of Nonrandom Mating, " in R. Travis Osborne, Clyde E. Noble and Nathaniel Weyl, eds. Human Variation:The Biopsychology of Age, Race, and Sex. New York:Academic Press,1978, pp.51-102.
[20]Jeroen Smits、Wout Ultee、Jan Lammers,1998. " An explanation of differences in openness using country-level explanatory variables. " American Sociological Review.63:264-285.
[21]Jeroen Smits,2003. "Social closure among the higher educated:trends in educational homogamy in 55 countries. " Social Science Research 32:251-277.
[22]Joel Mokyr,1982. " Capitalism and the State in Modern France Renovation and Economic Management in the Twentieth Century. " Business History Review.56:484-502
[23]Kalmijn, Matthijs,1998. Intermarriage and Homogamy:Causes, Patterns. Annual Review of Sociology.24:395-421.
[24]Kerckhoff, A. C.,1972. "The structure of the conjugal relationship in industrial societies. In:Sussmann, M., Cogswell, B. (Eds.)" Cross-National Family Research. Brill, Leiden, pp.53-69.
[25]Lam, David. "Marriage Markets and Assortative Mating with Household Public Goods. " Journal of Human Resources,1988,23 (4), pp,462-87.
[26]Lichter,Daniel T.,Anderson, Robert N. and Hayward, M. D. "Marriage Markets and Marital Choice. " Journal of Family Issues.1995,16. pp.412-31.
[27]Loughran, David S. "Does Variance Matter? The Effect of Rising Male Wage Inequality on Female Age at First Marriage." Unpublished manuscript,1998.
[28]Layard, Richard and Zabalza, Antoni. "Family Income Distribution Explanation and Policy Evaluation. " Journal of Political Economy,1979,87 (5), pp. S133-61.
[29]Lehrer, Evelyn L. "The Impact of Women's Employment on Family Income Distribution:A Comparison between 1973 and 1992-1994. " Quarterly Review of Economics and Finace,2001,40, pp.295-301.
[30]Lipset, S. M., Bendix, R.,1959. "Social Mobility in Industrial Society. " University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
[31]Miller, S. M.,1960. "Comparative social mobility:a trend report and bibliography. " Current Sociologyl,10.
[32]Raftery, Adrian E.1995. "Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research" Sociological Methodology. Vol.25:111-163.
[33]Raymo, J. M., Xie, Y.,2000. "Temporal and regional variation in the strength of educational homogamy. " American Sociological Review 65,773-781.
[34]Smits, Jeroen, Wout Ultee, and Jan Lammers. (1998), "Educational Homogamy in 65 Countries:An Explanation of Differences in Openness Using Country-Level Explanatory Vari "American Sociological Review.63:264-285.
[35]Smits, J., Ultee, W., Lammers, J.,2000. "More or educational homogamy. a test of different versions of modernization theory using cross-temporal evidence for 60 countries. " American Sociological Review65,781-789.
[36]Simmel, G.,1958.Soziologie. Duncker and Humblot, Berlin.
[37]Tai, H.,1989. "Confucianism and Economic Development. " The Washington Institute Press, Washington, DC.
[38]Taylor, C.L., Hudson, M.C.,1972. "World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, second ed. " Yale University Press, New Haven.
[39]Taylor, C. L., Jodice, D. a.,1983. "World handbood of Political and Social Indicators, third ed. " Yale University Press, New Haven.
[40]Tyree, A., Semyonov, M., Hodge, R. W.,1979. " Gaps and glissandos. American Sociological Review44,410-424.
[41]Ultee, Wout C, and Ruud Luijkx.1990. "Educational Heterogamy and Father-to-son Occupational Mobility in 23 Industrial Nations. " European Sociological Review.6:125-149.
[42]Ultee, W., Dessens, J., Jansen, W.,1988. "Why does unemployment come in couples? " European Sociological Review4,111-122.
[43]Vermunt, Jeroen K. (1997), "LEM:A General Program for the Analysis of Categorical Data". Tilburg University.
[44]Wilson,William J. and Neckerman, Kathryn M. "Poverty and Family Structure:The Widening Gap between Evidence and Policy Issues, in Sheldon H. Danziger and Daniel H. Weinberg, eds., Fighting Poverty:What Works and What Doesn't. " Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1986, pp.232-59
[45]Xie, Yu. (1992), "The Log-Multiplicative Layer Effect Model for Comparing Mobility Tables". American Sociological Review.57,3:380-395.
[46]贝克尔.人类行为的经济学分析[M],上海三联出版社,1995.
[47]苏珊娜.格罗斯巴德.舍特曼.婚姻与经济[M], 上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[48]谭仁杰.婚姻经济学[M]河南人民出版社,1992.
[49]李煜.婚姻的教育匹配—50年来的变迁[J],中国人口科学2008(3)
[50]李煜.陆新超.择偶配对的同质性与变迁——自致性与先赋性的匹配[J],青年研究2008(6)
[51]徐安琪.择偶标准：五十年变迁及其动因探析[J],社会学研究2000(6)
[52]李煜,徐安琪.择偶模式和性别偏好研究——西方理论和本土经验资料的解释[J],青年研究2004(10)
[53]易翠枝.婚姻市场的教育分层与女性人力资本投资[J],华东经济管理2007(2)
[2]Bernasco, W.,1994.Coupled Careers:The Effects of Spouse's Resources on Success at Work.Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam.
[3]Bjorklund,A.,1992. "Rising female labour force participation and distribution of family income:the Swedish experience. " Acta Sociologica 35,299-309.
[4]Blau, Peter. M. and 0. D. Duncan,1967. " The American Occupational Structure. " New York:Wiley Free Press.
[5]Blau, P. M., Schwartz, J. E.,1984. Crosscutting Social Circles. Academic press, New York.
[6]Burgess, Ernest W. and Paul Wallin,1943. " Homogamy in Social Characteristics. " American Journal of Sociology.49:109-124.
[7]Erikson, R., Goldthorpe, J.H.,1992. The Constant Flux. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
[8]Fox, T. G., Miller, S. G.,1966. " Economic, political and social determinants of mobility. " Acta Sociologica9,76-93.
[9]Gale, David and Shapley, Lloyd S,1962. "College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage. " American Mathematical Monthly,1962,69 (1), pp.9-15.
[10]Ganzeboom, H. B. G., Lui jkx, R., Treiman, D. J,1989. " Intergenerational class mobility in comparative perspective. " Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 8:3-84.
[11]Gerber, Theodore P., and Michael Hout,2004. "Tightening up:Inter-and Intragenerational Mobility in Russia,1988-2002. " American Sociological Review.69:677-703.
[12]Goodman, Leo A. (1979). "Simple Models for the Analysis of Association in Crossclassifications Having Ordered Categories. " Jounal of the American Statistical Association.74,537-552.
[13]Goodman, Leo A., and Michael Hout(1998). "Statistical Methods and Graphical Displays for Comparing How Two-Way Associations Vary among Countries, among Groups, or over Time. " Sociological Methodology. Vol.28:175-239.
[14]Goode, W. J.,1982. The Family. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,NJ.
[15]Grusky, D. B., Hauser, R. M.,1984. " Comparative social mobility revisited. " American Sociological Review 49,19-38.
[16]Hazerlrigg, L. E., Gamier, M. A.,1976. " Occupational mobility in industrialized societies:a comparable analysis of differential access to occupational ranks in seventeen countries. " American Sociological Review41,498-511.
[17]Hout, Michael,1983. Mobility Tables. Beverly Hills, CA:Sage Publications.
[18]Hunt, Thomas C,1940. "Occupational Status and Marriage Selection. " American Sociological Review.5:405-505.
[19]Jense, Arthur R,1978. "Genetic and Behavioral Effects of Nonrandom Mating, " in R. Travis Osborne, Clyde E. Noble and Nathaniel Weyl, eds. Human Variation:The Biopsychology of Age, Race, and Sex. New York:Academic Press,1978, pp.51-102.
[20]Jeroen Smits、Wout Ultee、Jan Lammers,1998. " An explanation of differences in openness using country-level explanatory variables. " American Sociological Review.63:264-285.
[21]Jeroen Smits,2003. "Social closure among the higher educated:trends in educational homogamy in 55 countries. " Social Science Research 32:251-277.
[22]Joel Mokyr,1982. " Capitalism and the State in Modern France Renovation and Economic Management in the Twentieth Century. " Business History Review.56:484-502
[23]Kalmijn, Matthijs,1998. Intermarriage and Homogamy:Causes, Patterns. Annual Review of Sociology.24:395-421.
[24]Kerckhoff, A. C.,1972. "The structure of the conjugal relationship in industrial societies. In:Sussmann, M., Cogswell, B. (Eds.)" Cross-National Family Research. Brill, Leiden, pp.53-69.
[25]Lam, David. "Marriage Markets and Assortative Mating with Household Public Goods. " Journal of Human Resources,1988,23 (4), pp,462-87.
[26]Lichter,Daniel T.,Anderson, Robert N. and Hayward, M. D. "Marriage Markets and Marital Choice. " Journal of Family Issues.1995,16. pp.412-31.
[27]Loughran, David S. "Does Variance Matter? The Effect of Rising Male Wage Inequality on Female Age at First Marriage." Unpublished manuscript,1998.
[28]Layard, Richard and Zabalza, Antoni. "Family Income Distribution Explanation and Policy Evaluation. " Journal of Political Economy,1979,87 (5), pp. S133-61.
[29]Lehrer, Evelyn L. "The Impact of Women's Employment on Family Income Distribution:A Comparison between 1973 and 1992-1994. " Quarterly Review of Economics and Finace,2001,40, pp.295-301.
[30]Lipset, S. M., Bendix, R.,1959. "Social Mobility in Industrial Society. " University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
[31]Miller, S. M.,1960. "Comparative social mobility:a trend report and bibliography. " Current Sociologyl,10.
[32]Raftery, Adrian E.1995. "Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research" Sociological Methodology. Vol.25:111-163.
[33]Raymo, J. M., Xie, Y.,2000. "Temporal and regional variation in the strength of educational homogamy. " American Sociological Review 65,773-781.
[34]Smits, Jeroen, Wout Ultee, and Jan Lammers. (1998), "Educational Homogamy in 65 Countries:An Explanation of Differences in Openness Using Country-Level Explanatory Vari "American Sociological Review.63:264-285.
[35]Smits, J., Ultee, W., Lammers, J.,2000. "More or educational homogamy. a test of different versions of modernization theory using cross-temporal evidence for 60 countries. " American Sociological Review65,781-789.
[36]Simmel, G.,1958.Soziologie. Duncker and Humblot, Berlin.
[37]Tai, H.,1989. "Confucianism and Economic Development. " The Washington Institute Press, Washington, DC.
[38]Taylor, C.L., Hudson, M.C.,1972. "World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, second ed. " Yale University Press, New Haven.
[39]Taylor, C. L., Jodice, D. a.,1983. "World handbood of Political and Social Indicators, third ed. " Yale University Press, New Haven.
[40]Tyree, A., Semyonov, M., Hodge, R. W.,1979. " Gaps and glissandos. American Sociological Review44,410-424.
[41]Ultee, Wout C, and Ruud Luijkx.1990. "Educational Heterogamy and Father-to-son Occupational Mobility in 23 Industrial Nations. " European Sociological Review.6:125-149.
[42]Ultee, W., Dessens, J., Jansen, W.,1988. "Why does unemployment come in couples? " European Sociological Review4,111-122.
[43]Vermunt, Jeroen K. (1997), "LEM:A General Program for the Analysis of Categorical Data". Tilburg University.
[44]Wilson,William J. and Neckerman, Kathryn M. "Poverty and Family Structure:The Widening Gap between Evidence and Policy Issues, in Sheldon H. Danziger and Daniel H. Weinberg, eds., Fighting Poverty:What Works and What Doesn't. " Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1986, pp.232-59
[45]Xie, Yu. (1992), "The Log-Multiplicative Layer Effect Model for Comparing Mobility Tables". American Sociological Review.57,3:380-395.
[46]贝克尔.人类行为的经济学分析[M],上海三联出版社,1995.
[47]苏珊娜.格罗斯巴德.舍特曼.婚姻与经济[M], 上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[48]谭仁杰.婚姻经济学[M]河南人民出版社,1992.
[49]李煜.婚姻的教育匹配—50年来的变迁[J],中国人口科学2008(3)
[50]李煜.陆新超.择偶配对的同质性与变迁——自致性与先赋性的匹配[J],青年研究2008(6)
[51]徐安琪.择偶标准：五十年变迁及其动因探析[J],社会学研究2000(6)
[52]李煜,徐安琪.择偶模式和性别偏好研究——西方理论和本土经验资料的解释[J],青年研究2004(10)
[53]易翠枝.婚姻市场的教育分层与女性人力资本投资[J],华东经济管理2007(2)