电力市场分析与独立发电厂电价预测
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摘要
建立发电侧电力市场是中国电力工业商业化运营的重要一步。 论文研究了电力市场环境下基于边际电价预测的独立发电厂竞价上网策略问题。通过采用神经网络方法预测全网短期边际电价，建立了基于实时成本分析的最优报价模型，提出了应用博弈论的的报价策略，取得了较好的预期效果 。在理论研究的基础上，结合工程实际，对竞价上网辅助决策系统进行了整体规划，最后给出了一个工程实现方案，利用Visual C# 初步开发了独立发电厂竞价上网辅助决策系统。 本文利用山东电力市场模拟运行数据对所建立的模型和算法进行了仿真。
It is an important step to establish the electric power market at the generating side in the commercialization of Chinese electric power market. This paper is about the strategies based on the marginal price prediction for independent power plants to connect to the national network by price competition in the context of electricity market. By using ANN to predict the short-term marginal price of the whole network, an optimal quote model based on real-time cost analysis is established and a game-theory quote strategy is brought forward and a good effect is achieved. In combination with engineering practice, an integrated programming is conducted of quoting auxiliary decision-making system and an engineering implementation scheme is proposed based on the theory study. Finally, power plants pricing competition computer auxiliary decision-making system is developed initially using programming language Visual C#. A simulation is performed of the established model and algorithm with the simulated operational data of Shandong electricity market in this paper.
It is an important step to establish the electric power market at the generating side in the commercialization of Chinese electric power market. This paper is about the strategies based on the marginal price prediction for independent power plants to connect to the national network by price competition in the context of electricity market. By using ANN to predict the short-term marginal price of the whole network, an optimal quote model based on real-time cost analysis is established and a game-theory quote strategy is brought forward and a good effect is achieved. In combination with engineering practice, an integrated programming is conducted of quoting auxiliary decision-making system and an engineering implementation scheme is proposed based on the theory study. Finally, power plants pricing competition computer auxiliary decision-making system is developed initially using programming language Visual C#. A simulation is performed of the established model and algorithm with the simulated operational data of Shandong electricity market in this paper.
引文
[1]曾鸣 电力工业商业化运营与电力市场 中国电力工出版社1998年北京
[2]曾鸣 电力市场理论及应用 中国电力出版社1999年北京
[3] 言茂松,李玉平,辛洁晴,李晓刚，从加州电力危机看稳健的当量电价体系，电网技术，Vol.25，No.6，Jun.2001
[4] 言茂松，辛洁晴，李晓刚，发展中国家电力市场的定价之一——确定型的次日发电上网定价与运行，电网技术，Vol.22，No.3，Mar.1998
[5]言茂松,李晓刚，发电竞价上网的简易当量电价法，电力系统自动化 1999. 1
[6] 张国全，王秀丽，王锡凡，电力市场中旋转备用的效益和成本分析, 电力系统自动化 2000.21
[7]黄日星,康重庆,夏清,电力市场中的边际电价预测，电力系统自动化 2000.11
[8]李帆,朱敏,英国电力市场及输电系统简介, 电力系统自动化, vol.23，No.2，Jan.1999
[9] 罗发龙,李衍达.神经网络信号处理.电子工业出版社,1993
[10] 巨林仓，李新康，李新成 火电厂时间序列的神经网络预报 动力工程 Vol.20 No.1 Feb.2000
[11]闻新，周露，王丹力，熊晓英 MATLAB神经网络应用设计，科学出版社
[12] 管晓宏，赖菲，电力市场中电力供应商竞价策略的选择，电力系统自动化，2000.10
[13] 武智勇，康重庆，夏清，戴国华，沈瑜，周安石，丁军威 基于博弈论的发电商报价策略 电力系统自动化，May.2002
[14] 尚金成，黄永皓，张维存，刘洪杰，刘文茂 一种基于博弈论的发电商竞价策略模型与算法 电力系统自动化，May.2002
[15] 刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信 博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用(上) 电力系统自动化2001,25(1):19～23
[16] 刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信 博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用(下) 电力系统自动化2001,25(2):13～18
[17] A. Haurie,R.Loulou and G.. Sarard, A Two－player Game Model of Power Cogeneration in new England, IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, Vol.37, No.9,SEP.1992
[18]Charles W.Ritchter,Gerald B.Shebl, Genetic Algorithin Evolution of Utility Bidding Strategies for the Competitive Market place, IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,Vol.13, No.1, FEB.1997
[19] R.W.Ferrero,J.F.Rivera and S.M.Shahidehopour, Application of Games with Incomplete information for pricing Electricity in Deregulated Power Pool, IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, Vol.13,No.1,NOV.1997
[20] Dennis,Eileen Cashman,Operational Risks,Bidding Strategies and Information Policies in Restructured Power Markets ,Decision Support Systems ,Vol.24 1999
[21]WenFS,DavidAK.OptimalBiddingStrategiesandModelingofImperfectInformationAmongCompetitiveGenerators.IEEETransonPowerSystems,2001,16(1):15～21
[22] X.Bai. S.M.Shahidehpour, V.C.Ramesh, and E.Yu. Transmission Analysis by Nash Game Method, IEEE Trans. Power Systems.12(3),1997,1046-1052.
[23] S. Borenstein and J.BushnellAn Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in Californias Electricity Industry Univ. of Cal. Energy insl., 1997.
[2]曾鸣 电力市场理论及应用 中国电力出版社1999年北京
[3] 言茂松,李玉平,辛洁晴,李晓刚，从加州电力危机看稳健的当量电价体系，电网技术，Vol.25，No.6，Jun.2001
[4] 言茂松，辛洁晴，李晓刚，发展中国家电力市场的定价之一——确定型的次日发电上网定价与运行，电网技术，Vol.22，No.3，Mar.1998
[5]言茂松,李晓刚，发电竞价上网的简易当量电价法，电力系统自动化 1999. 1
[6] 张国全，王秀丽，王锡凡，电力市场中旋转备用的效益和成本分析, 电力系统自动化 2000.21
[7]黄日星,康重庆,夏清,电力市场中的边际电价预测，电力系统自动化 2000.11
[8]李帆,朱敏,英国电力市场及输电系统简介, 电力系统自动化, vol.23，No.2，Jan.1999
[9] 罗发龙,李衍达.神经网络信号处理.电子工业出版社,1993
[10] 巨林仓，李新康，李新成 火电厂时间序列的神经网络预报 动力工程 Vol.20 No.1 Feb.2000
[11]闻新，周露，王丹力，熊晓英 MATLAB神经网络应用设计，科学出版社
[12] 管晓宏，赖菲，电力市场中电力供应商竞价策略的选择，电力系统自动化，2000.10
[13] 武智勇，康重庆，夏清，戴国华，沈瑜，周安石，丁军威 基于博弈论的发电商报价策略 电力系统自动化，May.2002
[14] 尚金成，黄永皓，张维存，刘洪杰，刘文茂 一种基于博弈论的发电商竞价策略模型与算法 电力系统自动化，May.2002
[15] 刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信 博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用(上) 电力系统自动化2001,25(1):19～23
[16] 刁勤华,林济铿,倪以信 博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用(下) 电力系统自动化2001,25(2):13～18
[17] A. Haurie,R.Loulou and G.. Sarard, A Two－player Game Model of Power Cogeneration in new England, IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, Vol.37, No.9,SEP.1992
[18]Charles W.Ritchter,Gerald B.Shebl, Genetic Algorithin Evolution of Utility Bidding Strategies for the Competitive Market place, IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,Vol.13, No.1, FEB.1997
[19] R.W.Ferrero,J.F.Rivera and S.M.Shahidehopour, Application of Games with Incomplete information for pricing Electricity in Deregulated Power Pool, IEEE Transaction on Power Systems, Vol.13,No.1,NOV.1997
[20] Dennis,Eileen Cashman,Operational Risks,Bidding Strategies and Information Policies in Restructured Power Markets ,Decision Support Systems ,Vol.24 1999
[21]WenFS,DavidAK.OptimalBiddingStrategiesandModelingofImperfectInformationAmongCompetitiveGenerators.IEEETransonPowerSystems,2001,16(1):15～21
[22] X.Bai. S.M.Shahidehpour, V.C.Ramesh, and E.Yu. Transmission Analysis by Nash Game Method, IEEE Trans. Power Systems.12(3),1997,1046-1052.
[23] S. Borenstein and J.BushnellAn Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in Californias Electricity Industry Univ. of Cal. Energy insl., 1997.