基于组合赋权和改进TOPSIS的经济评价研究
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摘要
科学发展观是坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展观。建立贯彻落实科学发展观的经济评价体系有利于共建和谐社会,保持经济平稳较快发展,促进经济社会的可持续发展。目前,我国的经济评价指标体系不完善、评价方法单一、缺乏一套有效的评价机制等已经成为现阶段我国经济评价体系存在的主要问题。
本论文共分四章,第一章介绍本文的研究背景、研究内容及研究框架;第二章建立了区县经济评价指标体系。第三章是基于科学发展观的经济评价模型研究,第四章分别采用中国10个副省级城市和大连10个区县的截面数据进行实证研究。论文的主要研究工作如下:
(1)建立了基于组合赋权的经济评价模型。以课题组建立的指标体系为依据,运用主观赋权的三角模糊法和客观赋权的熵值法组合确定指标权重,建立了基于组合赋权的经济评价模型,并以10个副省级城市的截面数据进行实证分析。
(2)建立了基于改进TOPSIS的经济评价模型。根据“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展观”的科学发展内涵,通过指标的海选和筛选构建了适合于区县的经济评价指标体系。通过消除TOPSIS的逆序现象和客观确定指标权重的方法,建立了基于改进TOPSIS的经济评价模型,并进行了10个区县的截面数据的实证分析。
本文的主要特色与创新:
(1)通过将理想解和负理想解设为固定值,使样本增减前后TOPSIS评价对象的总体评价结果的优劣关系不变,解决了TOPSIS评价样本的可加性和可减性问题。现有研究的TOPSIS在评价对象的个数增减时,会产生增减前后的逆序问题,产生逻辑混乱。本研究通过将理想解和负理想解设为固定值,使得样本增减时评价对象的优劣关系不变,改变了TOPSIS因理想解和负理想解随样本值变化而产生的逆序问题,解决了TOPSIS评价对象个数的可加性和可减性问题。
(2)通过组合赋权确定指标综合权重,这既反映了主观赋权中专家对评价指标的知识和经验,又包含了客观赋权对实际数据的真实反映。
Scientific development concept is to adhere to a people-centered, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development. The establishment of implementing the scientific concept of development of the economic evaluation system is conducive to build a harmonious society, to maintain stable and rapid economic development, and promote economic and social sustainable development. At present, Evaluation index system imperfect, a single evaluation method, and the lack of an effective evaluation mechanism are the key problems in economic evaluation system.
The thesis is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is the research background, research content and research framework. The second chapter is the establishment of economic evaluation index system for districts. The third chapter is the economic assessment model based on scientific concept of development. The fourth chapter uses 10 sub-provincial cities and 10 districts' data for empirical research.
The main achievements of the thesis are as follows.
(1) This paper establishes an economic assessment model based on fuzzy entropy. Through determining the optimal weights of indicators by combining entropy method and triangle fuzzy method optimally, this paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation model of economy and analyzes the development of China's 10 sub-provincial cities.
(2) This paper establishes an economic assessment model based on improved TOPSIS. According to the connotation of insisting on scientific concept of development, this paper constructs the index system for districts. By eliminating the reverse phenomenon of TOPSIS and objective determining the index weight, this paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation model of economy based on improved TOPSIS and analyzes the development of 10 districts.
The contribution characteristics lie on two aspects.
First, by setting the ideal and negative ideal solution to a fixed value, it makes the evaluation not change as the sample to increase or decrease, solves the additive and reductive problem. When the number of objects increases or decreases, TOPSIS will produce the reverse problem, leading the logical confusion. This paper, by setting the ideal and negative ideal solution to a fixed value, makes the evaluation not change as the sample to increase or decrease, avoids the reverse problem arising from the changing of ideal and negative ideal solution.
Second, through combination weighting, it not only retains the entropy method which reflects the actual situation and speculate the future of factors, but also retains the subjective empowering, such as triangle fuzzy method, which embodies the importance of experts' knowledge and experience.
本论文共分四章,第一章介绍本文的研究背景、研究内容及研究框架;第二章建立了区县经济评价指标体系。第三章是基于科学发展观的经济评价模型研究,第四章分别采用中国10个副省级城市和大连10个区县的截面数据进行实证研究。论文的主要研究工作如下:
(1)建立了基于组合赋权的经济评价模型。以课题组建立的指标体系为依据,运用主观赋权的三角模糊法和客观赋权的熵值法组合确定指标权重,建立了基于组合赋权的经济评价模型,并以10个副省级城市的截面数据进行实证分析。
(2)建立了基于改进TOPSIS的经济评价模型。根据“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展观”的科学发展内涵,通过指标的海选和筛选构建了适合于区县的经济评价指标体系。通过消除TOPSIS的逆序现象和客观确定指标权重的方法,建立了基于改进TOPSIS的经济评价模型,并进行了10个区县的截面数据的实证分析。
本文的主要特色与创新:
(1)通过将理想解和负理想解设为固定值,使样本增减前后TOPSIS评价对象的总体评价结果的优劣关系不变,解决了TOPSIS评价样本的可加性和可减性问题。现有研究的TOPSIS在评价对象的个数增减时,会产生增减前后的逆序问题,产生逻辑混乱。本研究通过将理想解和负理想解设为固定值,使得样本增减时评价对象的优劣关系不变,改变了TOPSIS因理想解和负理想解随样本值变化而产生的逆序问题,解决了TOPSIS评价对象个数的可加性和可减性问题。
(2)通过组合赋权确定指标综合权重,这既反映了主观赋权中专家对评价指标的知识和经验,又包含了客观赋权对实际数据的真实反映。
Scientific development concept is to adhere to a people-centered, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development. The establishment of implementing the scientific concept of development of the economic evaluation system is conducive to build a harmonious society, to maintain stable and rapid economic development, and promote economic and social sustainable development. At present, Evaluation index system imperfect, a single evaluation method, and the lack of an effective evaluation mechanism are the key problems in economic evaluation system.
The thesis is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is the research background, research content and research framework. The second chapter is the establishment of economic evaluation index system for districts. The third chapter is the economic assessment model based on scientific concept of development. The fourth chapter uses 10 sub-provincial cities and 10 districts' data for empirical research.
The main achievements of the thesis are as follows.
(1) This paper establishes an economic assessment model based on fuzzy entropy. Through determining the optimal weights of indicators by combining entropy method and triangle fuzzy method optimally, this paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation model of economy and analyzes the development of China's 10 sub-provincial cities.
(2) This paper establishes an economic assessment model based on improved TOPSIS. According to the connotation of insisting on scientific concept of development, this paper constructs the index system for districts. By eliminating the reverse phenomenon of TOPSIS and objective determining the index weight, this paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation model of economy based on improved TOPSIS and analyzes the development of 10 districts.
The contribution characteristics lie on two aspects.
First, by setting the ideal and negative ideal solution to a fixed value, it makes the evaluation not change as the sample to increase or decrease, solves the additive and reductive problem. When the number of objects increases or decreases, TOPSIS will produce the reverse problem, leading the logical confusion. This paper, by setting the ideal and negative ideal solution to a fixed value, makes the evaluation not change as the sample to increase or decrease, avoids the reverse problem arising from the changing of ideal and negative ideal solution.
Second, through combination weighting, it not only retains the entropy method which reflects the actual situation and speculate the future of factors, but also retains the subjective empowering, such as triangle fuzzy method, which embodies the importance of experts' knowledge and experience.
引文
[1]王朝科.英国可持续发展指标体系评价[J].山西统计,1997,(7):41-43.
[2]World Bank.The World Bank public information center annual report FY95[R].Washington,DC:World Bank,July 31,1995.
[3]World Bank.Allocation of FY98 net income[R].Washington,DC:World Bank.1997:97-175.
[4]United Nation's Sustainable Development Commission.Proceedings of the First Session on Agenda 21[R].New York,USA:April and June 1997.
[5]World Bank.Expanding the measure of wealth indicators of environmentally sustainable development[R].Environmentally sustainable development studies and monographs series,1997.
[6]Devesh Kaput.The Common Pool Dilemma of Global Public Goods:Lessons from the World Bank's Net Income and Reserves[J].World Development,2002,30(3):337-354.
[7]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.2002中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:229-239.
[9]牛文元.持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1994:311-327.
[10]姜玉山,朱孔来.现代化评价指标体系及综合评价方法[J].统计研究,2002,(1):50-54.
[11]Shan Feng,Li D.Xu.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban development[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1999(105):1-12.
[12]夏水春,夏世斌,王芳.基于AHP方法的高新技术企业[J].商场现代化,2006,(16):301-302.
[13]张瑞兰,耿建敏.基于动态集对同一度的政府政绩综合评价方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识2006,36(4):84-90.
[14]朱丽.运用熵值法探讨广州25年社会、环境和经济变化状况[J].生态环境,2008,17(1):411-415.
[15]李艳春,黄毅斌,王义祥,翁伯琦.基于熵权的TOPSIS法对福建省农业经济发展水平的综合评价[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(9):387-390.
[16]王柏玲,孙春艳.从地方政府经济行为角度谈绩效评价机制设计[J].经济与管理,2005,19(12):20-23.
[17]政府部门绩效评估研究报告.中国论文下载中心:[Z].http://www.studa.net/shehuiqita/060620/14500812.html.2006年06月20日.
[18]World Bank.SLM Impact Monitoring Module[R/OL].http://www.worldbank.org/e/ssd/susint.ns Image Catalo 9.2002-9/2004-6:5-116.
[19]WCED.Our Common Future,Oxford University Press,1987:25-233.
[20]Government Statistic Office of UK.Indicators of Sustainable Development for the United Kingdom[M].London:HMSO Publications center,1996:3-354.
[21]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所资料信息中心,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所《具有中国特色的国际竞争力研究》课题组.世界经济与政治文选(一).http://myy.cass.cn/ziliao/08sjz/01/book/EQ43/19/book1.htm.
[22]中国国家统计局.《中国城市统计年鉴2007》[EB/OL].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2007/indexch.htm.
[23]Bernard Baumohl.The Secrets of Economic Indicators:Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities[M].Pennsylvania:Wharton School Publishing,2005:255-307.
[24]邱晓华,郑京平.解读中国经济指标[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2003:56-340.
[25]马力,史锦凤.15个副省级城市区域经济发展水平的实证分析[J].科技进步与对策,2006,(12):88-90.
[26]潘安娥,杨青.基于主成分分析的武汉市经济社会发展综合评价研究[J].中国软科学,2005(7):118-121.
[27]孙小素,牛金虎.我国各地区和谐社会进程监测与评价[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(2):38-44.
[28]Haiyan Chen,Beisi Jia,S.S.Y.Lau.Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities:Challenges of a rapid urbanized economy[J].Habitat International(2007),doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.06.005
[29]金辉,钱焱,苗壮.县域经济竞争力评价[J].统计与决策,2006,(10):57-59.
[30]周桂平.基于熵AHP法的经济发展评价[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2007.
[31]朱建德,任俊娟.基于TOPSIS法的建筑业经济效益评价[J].现代企业教育,2008,(12):131-132.
[32]吴小庆,王远,.刘宁,高倩,陆根法.基于生态效率理论和TOPSIS法的工业园区循环经济发展评价[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(12):2203-2208.
[33]于鹏飞,王丽娜.财务预警中样本数据无量纲化方法的选择[J].会计之友,2005,(12):43-44.
[34]谭朝阳.中国通货膨胀率应是多少——源自价值虚质量论重要推论之一[EB/OL].http://hi.baidu.com/ljlyizhan/blog/item/72027434c30f974b251f144c.html.
[35]朱梅红,李爱华.基于熵权的中国西部各省份科技实力综合评价[J].数学实践与认识,2006,(12):120-125.
[36]程赐胜,丁祝燕.基于模糊熵的物流企业客户满意度评价模型[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2006,3(3):79-82.
[37]彭猛业,楼超华,高尔生.加权平均组合评价法及其应用[J].中国卫生统计,2004,(6):146-149.
[38]陈伟,夏健华.综合主、客观权重信息的最优组合方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37 (1):17-22.
[39]柳劲松.我国居民生活质量地区差异的Topsis分析[J].学术论丛,2009,(5):99-101.
[40]黄德才,郑河荣.理想点决策方法的逆序问题与逆序的消除[J].系统工程与电子技术,2001,23(12):80-83.
[41]卢方元.一种改进的TOPSIS法[J].统计与决策,2003,(3):78-79.
[42]张卓元.著名经济学家张卓元:GDP缓慢调整为9%左右最理想[EB/OL].http://china.zjol.com.cn/05china/system/2008/05/06/009486399.shtml.
[43]韦红梅,刘毅.18%未来合理的固定资产投资增长率[J].中国投资,2006,(2):59-60.
[44]季铸,王爽,刘觅颖.中国300个省市绿色GDP指数报告(CGGDP2007)[R].北京:北京工商大学世界经济研究中心、首都流通业研究基地中国指数中心、中国贸易报,2007.
[45]余锦华,杨维权.多元统计分析与应用[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2006:176-177.
[2]World Bank.The World Bank public information center annual report FY95[R].Washington,DC:World Bank,July 31,1995.
[3]World Bank.Allocation of FY98 net income[R].Washington,DC:World Bank.1997:97-175.
[4]United Nation's Sustainable Development Commission.Proceedings of the First Session on Agenda 21[R].New York,USA:April and June 1997.
[5]World Bank.Expanding the measure of wealth indicators of environmentally sustainable development[R].Environmentally sustainable development studies and monographs series,1997.
[6]Devesh Kaput.The Common Pool Dilemma of Global Public Goods:Lessons from the World Bank's Net Income and Reserves[J].World Development,2002,30(3):337-354.
[7]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.2002中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:229-239.
[9]牛文元.持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1994:311-327.
[10]姜玉山,朱孔来.现代化评价指标体系及综合评价方法[J].统计研究,2002,(1):50-54.
[11]Shan Feng,Li D.Xu.Decision support for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban development[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1999(105):1-12.
[12]夏水春,夏世斌,王芳.基于AHP方法的高新技术企业[J].商场现代化,2006,(16):301-302.
[13]张瑞兰,耿建敏.基于动态集对同一度的政府政绩综合评价方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识2006,36(4):84-90.
[14]朱丽.运用熵值法探讨广州25年社会、环境和经济变化状况[J].生态环境,2008,17(1):411-415.
[15]李艳春,黄毅斌,王义祥,翁伯琦.基于熵权的TOPSIS法对福建省农业经济发展水平的综合评价[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(9):387-390.
[16]王柏玲,孙春艳.从地方政府经济行为角度谈绩效评价机制设计[J].经济与管理,2005,19(12):20-23.
[17]政府部门绩效评估研究报告.中国论文下载中心:[Z].http://www.studa.net/shehuiqita/060620/14500812.html.2006年06月20日.
[18]World Bank.SLM Impact Monitoring Module[R/OL].http://www.worldbank.org/e/ssd/susint.ns Image Catalo 9.2002-9/2004-6:5-116.
[19]WCED.Our Common Future,Oxford University Press,1987:25-233.
[20]Government Statistic Office of UK.Indicators of Sustainable Development for the United Kingdom[M].London:HMSO Publications center,1996:3-354.
[21]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所资料信息中心,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所《具有中国特色的国际竞争力研究》课题组.世界经济与政治文选(一).http://myy.cass.cn/ziliao/08sjz/01/book/EQ43/19/book1.htm.
[22]中国国家统计局.《中国城市统计年鉴2007》[EB/OL].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2007/indexch.htm.
[23]Bernard Baumohl.The Secrets of Economic Indicators:Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities[M].Pennsylvania:Wharton School Publishing,2005:255-307.
[24]邱晓华,郑京平.解读中国经济指标[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2003:56-340.
[25]马力,史锦凤.15个副省级城市区域经济发展水平的实证分析[J].科技进步与对策,2006,(12):88-90.
[26]潘安娥,杨青.基于主成分分析的武汉市经济社会发展综合评价研究[J].中国软科学,2005(7):118-121.
[27]孙小素,牛金虎.我国各地区和谐社会进程监测与评价[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(2):38-44.
[28]Haiyan Chen,Beisi Jia,S.S.Y.Lau.Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities:Challenges of a rapid urbanized economy[J].Habitat International(2007),doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.06.005
[29]金辉,钱焱,苗壮.县域经济竞争力评价[J].统计与决策,2006,(10):57-59.
[30]周桂平.基于熵AHP法的经济发展评价[D].大连:大连理工大学管理学院,2007.
[31]朱建德,任俊娟.基于TOPSIS法的建筑业经济效益评价[J].现代企业教育,2008,(12):131-132.
[32]吴小庆,王远,.刘宁,高倩,陆根法.基于生态效率理论和TOPSIS法的工业园区循环经济发展评价[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(12):2203-2208.
[33]于鹏飞,王丽娜.财务预警中样本数据无量纲化方法的选择[J].会计之友,2005,(12):43-44.
[34]谭朝阳.中国通货膨胀率应是多少——源自价值虚质量论重要推论之一[EB/OL].http://hi.baidu.com/ljlyizhan/blog/item/72027434c30f974b251f144c.html.
[35]朱梅红,李爱华.基于熵权的中国西部各省份科技实力综合评价[J].数学实践与认识,2006,(12):120-125.
[36]程赐胜,丁祝燕.基于模糊熵的物流企业客户满意度评价模型[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2006,3(3):79-82.
[37]彭猛业,楼超华,高尔生.加权平均组合评价法及其应用[J].中国卫生统计,2004,(6):146-149.
[38]陈伟,夏健华.综合主、客观权重信息的最优组合方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37 (1):17-22.
[39]柳劲松.我国居民生活质量地区差异的Topsis分析[J].学术论丛,2009,(5):99-101.
[40]黄德才,郑河荣.理想点决策方法的逆序问题与逆序的消除[J].系统工程与电子技术,2001,23(12):80-83.
[41]卢方元.一种改进的TOPSIS法[J].统计与决策,2003,(3):78-79.
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