基于多模型模糊神经网络的智能天气预报
摘要
上个世纪90年代以来,国内外学者在开展了神经网络天气预报建模和气候分析等应用研究。然而随着神经网络方法在气象科学领域研究的不断深入,研究人员发现神经网络方法在天气预报的应用中存在一个重要的问题,即在利用神经网络方法进行气象预报建模时,神经网络的初始权值、网络结构以及网络的学习参数,动量因子都是难以确定的,往往要通过反复训练来确定网络的结构和各种参数,这样会导致在应用中出现过拟合问题,严重影响网络的泛化能力,很大程度上限制神经网络在实际天气业务中的应用。该问题的研究不仅关系到在大气学科中能否进一步深入开展有关人工神经网络方法的业务预报应用,并且也是目前人工神经网络应用理论研究中尚未得到很好解决的关键技术问题。
随着神经网络技术的发展,神经网络集成、遗传神经网络、模糊神经网络等新技术的兴起,我们有了寻找其他解决方法的途径,可以就神经网络技术在天气预报领域的应用进行一些新的尝试。本文以上海地区气象预报作实验,结合了本地区的天气特点,吸取了上海中心气象台多位首席预报员的预报知识,建立了基于自适应模糊神经网络(ANFIS)的预报模型。为了验证自适应模糊神经网络(ANFIS)在智能天气预报中的优越性和实用性,本文亦用一般BP神经网络对实测数据进行训练,建立预报模型,得到预报结果。本文用ANFIS模糊神经网络和一般的BP神经网络得到预测结果与实测结果进行比较,对模型的有效性进行评价。通过实例验证,ANFIS模糊神经网络在智能天气预报方面具有一定的应用价值。
Since the 90's of 20 centuries, Some the Neural Network forecast modles were applied in domestic and international atmosphere course. With the research be made a thorough and careful, the researcher discovered an important problem in the actual weather forecast application, which the Neural Network beginning connection weights, the network construction, learning factor and momentum factor were hard to certain. Because the researcher need train many times so that all kinds of parameters can be definite, the Neural Network become over-fitting and the serious influence the Neural Network generation ability. This problem will limit the Neural Network in the actual forecast application. The research of that problem not only relate to whether to can go deep into the Neural Network business forecast research in atmosphere course but also is the key technique in the theories research.
We can try again since the theory of ANN like Genetic ANN, ANN ensemble, and Fuzzy ANN is developed. Considering the characteristic of weather of Shanghai and learning abundant meteorology knowledge from the experts of Shanghai weather bureau, we train our ANFIS (Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System) to do weather forecasting in Shanghai, and compare the forecasting results to the BP Neural Networks forecasting results. The comparative results make we validate that the ANFIS has much more advantage.
随着神经网络技术的发展,神经网络集成、遗传神经网络、模糊神经网络等新技术的兴起,我们有了寻找其他解决方法的途径,可以就神经网络技术在天气预报领域的应用进行一些新的尝试。本文以上海地区气象预报作实验,结合了本地区的天气特点,吸取了上海中心气象台多位首席预报员的预报知识,建立了基于自适应模糊神经网络(ANFIS)的预报模型。为了验证自适应模糊神经网络(ANFIS)在智能天气预报中的优越性和实用性,本文亦用一般BP神经网络对实测数据进行训练,建立预报模型,得到预报结果。本文用ANFIS模糊神经网络和一般的BP神经网络得到预测结果与实测结果进行比较,对模型的有效性进行评价。通过实例验证,ANFIS模糊神经网络在智能天气预报方面具有一定的应用价值。
Since the 90's of 20 centuries, Some the Neural Network forecast modles were applied in domestic and international atmosphere course. With the research be made a thorough and careful, the researcher discovered an important problem in the actual weather forecast application, which the Neural Network beginning connection weights, the network construction, learning factor and momentum factor were hard to certain. Because the researcher need train many times so that all kinds of parameters can be definite, the Neural Network become over-fitting and the serious influence the Neural Network generation ability. This problem will limit the Neural Network in the actual forecast application. The research of that problem not only relate to whether to can go deep into the Neural Network business forecast research in atmosphere course but also is the key technique in the theories research.
We can try again since the theory of ANN like Genetic ANN, ANN ensemble, and Fuzzy ANN is developed. Considering the characteristic of weather of Shanghai and learning abundant meteorology knowledge from the experts of Shanghai weather bureau, we train our ANFIS (Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System) to do weather forecasting in Shanghai, and compare the forecasting results to the BP Neural Networks forecasting results. The comparative results make we validate that the ANFIS has much more advantage.
引文
[1]P. K. Dash & S. Dash; A Fuzzy Adaptive Correction Scheme For Short Term load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Layered Neural network; IEEE; 1993.
[2]Andrzej Jakubiak; Classification of Weather Clutter Models Using Neural Networks; IEEE; 2004.
[3]Youmin Tang and William W. Hsieh;Coupling Neural Network to Incomplete Dynamical System via Variational Data Assimilation; Monthly Weather Review; 2000.
[4]Mccann D W., A neural network short-term forecast of significant thunderstorms; Weather and Forecasting; 1992.
[5]Lei shi; Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles form AMSU-A Measurement Using a Neural Network Approach Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology; 2000.
[6]Hongping Liu, V. Chandrasekar and Gang Xu; An adaptive Neural Network Scheme for Radar Rainfall Estimation form WSR-88D Observations; Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001.
[7]G. Mihalakakou, M, Sanmtanmouris, D. N. Asimakopoulos; The total solar radiation time series simulation in Athens; Using Neural Networks, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2000.
[8]郭光,严绍谨等；人工神经网络用于我国东部汛期降水预测研究；南京象学院学报；1996。
[9]燕东渭,杨艳等；SVM和ANN方法在铜川盛夏暴雨预报中的对比试验；陕西气象；2006。
[10]盛永宽；短期气象(月、季、年)逐月降水系统研究；气象；1996。
[11]金龙,罗莹等；农田土壤湿度的人工神经网络预报模型研究；土壤学报,1998。
[12]徐俊增,彭世彰；基于气象预报的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的神经网络预测模型；气象预报；2006。
[13]金龙,秦伟良等；多步预测的小波神经网络预报模型；大气科学,2000。
[14]宋新改,林明森,蒋兴伟等；神经网络反演散射计风场算法的研究；海洋学报；2006。 5] 金龙,林振山等.基于人工神经网络的集成预报方法的研究和比较气象学报,1999。
[16]金龙等；各种最优定阶准则的自回归模型集成预报方法研究；预测；1996。
[17]蔡甲冰,刘钰等；根据天气预报估算参照腾发量的模糊神经网络方法；农业工程学报；2006。
[18]吴清佳,张庆平,万健；遗传神经网络的智能天气预报系统；《计算机工程》；2005。
[19]Veron F.Dvorak, Frank Smigielski;《卫星观测的热带云和云系》；气象出版社；1996。
[20]李爱珍,刘厚凤；《气象学与气候学基础》；气象出版社；2001。
[21]Martin T. Hagan, Howard B. Demuth, Mark H. Beale;《神经网络设计》戴葵等译；机械工业出版社；2002
[22]Simon Haykin;《神经网络原理》叶世伟,史忠植译；机械工业出版社；2004。
[23]蒋宗礼：《人工神经网络导论》；高等教育出版社；2001。
[24]徐丽娜：《神经网络控制》；哈尔滨工业大学出版社； 2003。
[25]王旭,王宏；《人工神经网络原理与应用》；东北大学出版社；2000。
[26]闻新,周露；《Matlab神经网络仿真与应用》；科学技术出版社；2003。
[27]周开例康耀红；《神经网络模型及其Matlab仿真程序设计》；清华大学出版社；2005。
[28]P. K. Dash, A. C. Liew, S.Rahman; Fuzzy neural network and fuzzy expert system for load forecasting; IEEE Proc-Gener Transm Distrib Vol 143, No.1, January 1996。
[29]阎平凡,张长水；《人工神经网络于模拟金花计算》(第二版)；清华大学出版社；2005。
[30]吴晓莉,林哲辉；《Matlab辅助模糊系统设计》；西安电子科技大学出版社；2002。
[31]闻新,周露,李东江等；《Matlab模糊逻辑工具箱的分析与应用》；科学出版社；200,1。
[32]LL. LAI, A. BRAUN, Q. P. Zhang, Q. WU, Y. N. MA, W.C.SUN; Intelligent Weather Forecast;IEEE;2004.
[33]王士同；《神经模糊系统及其应用》；北京航空航天大学出版社；1998。
[34]刘增良；《模糊技术与应用选编1》；航空航天大学出版社；1997。
[35]刘增良；《模糊技术与应用选编5》；航空航天大学出版社；2001。
[36]李国勇；《智能控制以及Matlab实现》；电子工业出版社；2005。
[37]张吉礼； 《模糊—神经网络控制原理与工程应用》；哈尔滨工业大学出版社。
[38]Robert J. Kuligowsk, Ana P. Barros;Localized Precipitation Forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks; Weather And Forecasting;1998.
[39]Ming Meng, Jian chang Lu, Wei Sun; Short-Term Load Forecasting Based On Ant Colony Clustering And Improved BP Neural Networks;IEEE;2006
[40]董聪；多层前向网络的逼近与泛化机制； 《控制与决策》；1998。
[41]Funahshi K I; On the Approximate Realization of Continuous Mappings by Neutral Networks; NeuralNetwork,1989.
[42]金龙； 《神经网络预报建模理论方法与应用》；气象出版社；2004。
[43]王成名,余鑫辉； 《应用概率统计》；广西师范大学出版社；1994。
[44]T. Takagi, M. Sugeno; Derivation of Fuzzy Control Rules from Human Operator's Control Actions; Proceeding of the IFAC Symposium on Fuzzy Information, Knowledge Representation and Decision Analysis;1983.
[45]T. Takagi, M. Sugeno; Modeling and Control Fuzzy Identification of Systems and Its Applications; IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics;1985.
[46]Ma wenxiao, Bai xiaoming, Mu-lian Shun; Short-Term Load Forecasting With Artifical Neural Network And Fuzzy Logic;IEEE;2002.
[47]Lin, S. H., Goodman, E. D., and Paunch, W. F.; Investigating Parallel Genetic Algorithms on Job Shop Scheduling Problem. In the Sixth International Conference on Evolutionary Programming, Angeline, P., Reynolds, R. J. M., and Eberhart, R. (ed.),1997.
[48]姚祖庆；天气基础知识和灾害性天气；智能天气预报会议；复旦大学,2003年。
[2]Andrzej Jakubiak; Classification of Weather Clutter Models Using Neural Networks; IEEE; 2004.
[3]Youmin Tang and William W. Hsieh;Coupling Neural Network to Incomplete Dynamical System via Variational Data Assimilation; Monthly Weather Review; 2000.
[4]Mccann D W., A neural network short-term forecast of significant thunderstorms; Weather and Forecasting; 1992.
[5]Lei shi; Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles form AMSU-A Measurement Using a Neural Network Approach Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology; 2000.
[6]Hongping Liu, V. Chandrasekar and Gang Xu; An adaptive Neural Network Scheme for Radar Rainfall Estimation form WSR-88D Observations; Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001.
[7]G. Mihalakakou, M, Sanmtanmouris, D. N. Asimakopoulos; The total solar radiation time series simulation in Athens; Using Neural Networks, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2000.
[8]郭光,严绍谨等；人工神经网络用于我国东部汛期降水预测研究；南京象学院学报；1996。
[9]燕东渭,杨艳等；SVM和ANN方法在铜川盛夏暴雨预报中的对比试验；陕西气象；2006。
[10]盛永宽；短期气象(月、季、年)逐月降水系统研究；气象；1996。
[11]金龙,罗莹等；农田土壤湿度的人工神经网络预报模型研究；土壤学报,1998。
[12]徐俊增,彭世彰；基于气象预报的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的神经网络预测模型；气象预报；2006。
[13]金龙,秦伟良等；多步预测的小波神经网络预报模型；大气科学,2000。
[14]宋新改,林明森,蒋兴伟等；神经网络反演散射计风场算法的研究；海洋学报；2006。 5] 金龙,林振山等.基于人工神经网络的集成预报方法的研究和比较气象学报,1999。
[16]金龙等；各种最优定阶准则的自回归模型集成预报方法研究；预测；1996。
[17]蔡甲冰,刘钰等；根据天气预报估算参照腾发量的模糊神经网络方法；农业工程学报；2006。
[18]吴清佳,张庆平,万健；遗传神经网络的智能天气预报系统；《计算机工程》；2005。
[19]Veron F.Dvorak, Frank Smigielski;《卫星观测的热带云和云系》；气象出版社；1996。
[20]李爱珍,刘厚凤；《气象学与气候学基础》；气象出版社；2001。
[21]Martin T. Hagan, Howard B. Demuth, Mark H. Beale;《神经网络设计》戴葵等译；机械工业出版社；2002
[22]Simon Haykin;《神经网络原理》叶世伟,史忠植译；机械工业出版社；2004。
[23]蒋宗礼：《人工神经网络导论》；高等教育出版社；2001。
[24]徐丽娜：《神经网络控制》；哈尔滨工业大学出版社； 2003。
[25]王旭,王宏；《人工神经网络原理与应用》；东北大学出版社；2000。
[26]闻新,周露；《Matlab神经网络仿真与应用》；科学技术出版社；2003。
[27]周开例康耀红；《神经网络模型及其Matlab仿真程序设计》；清华大学出版社；2005。
[28]P. K. Dash, A. C. Liew, S.Rahman; Fuzzy neural network and fuzzy expert system for load forecasting; IEEE Proc-Gener Transm Distrib Vol 143, No.1, January 1996。
[29]阎平凡,张长水；《人工神经网络于模拟金花计算》(第二版)；清华大学出版社；2005。
[30]吴晓莉,林哲辉；《Matlab辅助模糊系统设计》；西安电子科技大学出版社；2002。
[31]闻新,周露,李东江等；《Matlab模糊逻辑工具箱的分析与应用》；科学出版社；200,1。
[32]LL. LAI, A. BRAUN, Q. P. Zhang, Q. WU, Y. N. MA, W.C.SUN; Intelligent Weather Forecast;IEEE;2004.
[33]王士同；《神经模糊系统及其应用》；北京航空航天大学出版社；1998。
[34]刘增良；《模糊技术与应用选编1》；航空航天大学出版社；1997。
[35]刘增良；《模糊技术与应用选编5》；航空航天大学出版社；2001。
[36]李国勇；《智能控制以及Matlab实现》；电子工业出版社；2005。
[37]张吉礼； 《模糊—神经网络控制原理与工程应用》；哈尔滨工业大学出版社。
[38]Robert J. Kuligowsk, Ana P. Barros;Localized Precipitation Forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks; Weather And Forecasting;1998.
[39]Ming Meng, Jian chang Lu, Wei Sun; Short-Term Load Forecasting Based On Ant Colony Clustering And Improved BP Neural Networks;IEEE;2006
[40]董聪；多层前向网络的逼近与泛化机制； 《控制与决策》；1998。
[41]Funahshi K I; On the Approximate Realization of Continuous Mappings by Neutral Networks; NeuralNetwork,1989.
[42]金龙； 《神经网络预报建模理论方法与应用》；气象出版社；2004。
[43]王成名,余鑫辉； 《应用概率统计》；广西师范大学出版社；1994。
[44]T. Takagi, M. Sugeno; Derivation of Fuzzy Control Rules from Human Operator's Control Actions; Proceeding of the IFAC Symposium on Fuzzy Information, Knowledge Representation and Decision Analysis;1983.
[45]T. Takagi, M. Sugeno; Modeling and Control Fuzzy Identification of Systems and Its Applications; IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics;1985.
[46]Ma wenxiao, Bai xiaoming, Mu-lian Shun; Short-Term Load Forecasting With Artifical Neural Network And Fuzzy Logic;IEEE;2002.
[47]Lin, S. H., Goodman, E. D., and Paunch, W. F.; Investigating Parallel Genetic Algorithms on Job Shop Scheduling Problem. In the Sixth International Conference on Evolutionary Programming, Angeline, P., Reynolds, R. J. M., and Eberhart, R. (ed.),1997.
[48]姚祖庆；天气基础知识和灾害性天气；智能天气预报会议；复旦大学,2003年。