复杂系统基于Agent的建模与仿真方法研究及应用
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摘要
复杂系统与复杂性科学是21世纪的科学,其研究方法是近代以来科学方法论的又一场革命,将为人们提供全新的了解自然界奥秘的手段。当前,对于自然现象、社会、经济、政治、军事、管理、生物以及工程(特别是航天工程)等领域复杂系统与复杂性的研究,呼唤新的建模与仿真方法的出现,基于Agent的建模与仿真(Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation, ABMS)方法应运而生。ABMS是当前建模与仿真领域的研究热点。论文以复杂系统与复杂性理论为立论基础与研究背景,以空间作战和卫星系统的建模与仿真为立题背景,开展ABMS方法学的相关问题研究,并将其应用到卫星系统的建模与仿真中,以期使ABMS方法学成为一套完善的建模与仿真理论,并能够指导具体复杂系统的建模与仿真研究。
系统地阐述了复杂系统与复杂性理论的起源,结合前人的研究成果,分析和总结了复杂系统与复杂性有关的理论与方法,从本体论、认识论和方法论角度对复杂性进行了深刻的认识与理解,强调了建模与仿真在复杂系统研究中的重要地位。从复杂性理论出发,对空间信息系统的复杂性进行了分析和探讨,并提出了空间信息系统的研究思路。
ABMS方法学是研究复杂系统的科学方法论。论文详细阐述了ABMS方法学的基本思想、特点和应用领域,提出了基于Agent的建模与仿真概念化框架,并因此界定了ABMS方法的研究内容。在此框架下,给出了ABMS方法学意义下包括Agent、消息、复杂系统以及基于Agent的仿真的形式化描述。讨论了基于Agent的模型校核与确认相关问题,探讨了基于Agent的模型有效性确认方法。建立了规范的ABMS的研究步骤,用来指导和规范复杂系统的建模与仿真,以减少建模与仿真的复杂度,提高模型的重用性与可用性。
采用多种形式化方法对基于Agent的建模方法与模型描述进行了深入的研究,包括基于Agent的模型框架及基于Agent的行为建模两个方面。提出了一个包括实体、对象和Agent在内的三层抽象模型框架,并对相关的概念进行了形式化定义与描述,阐述了Agent模型实现相关的细节。对虚拟环境中Agent的行为建模问题进行了研究,对Agent的动作、行为以及约束等概念进行了定义与描述,提出并形式化描述了一种包含Agent的自主行为和交互行为的行为模型;为了实现复杂的智能行为以及行为的复用与集成,提出了一种包含行为聚合与分解、行为特化与泛化的行为抽象机制,并对该机制进行了形式化描述。在行为建模方法的基础上,对预警卫星的预警行为进行了分析,并对预警卫星的凝视相机的数据获取行为进行了建模。
在ABMS概念化框架的支持下,提出了一种包含仿真基础服务模型和Agent仿真模型在内的基于Agent的建模与分布仿真软件框架,阐述了其中的关键功能组件及相关的时间算法。这种框架具有平台独立、开放性强,重用性强以及支持层次仿真、建模环境与仿真环境分离开来等特点。基于此框架,利用面向对象的思想,采用Java语言实现了一个基于Agent的分布仿真环境原型系——ADSimE,可保证领域专家以最简单、灵活的方式来进行复杂系统分布仿真。
The theories of complex systems and complexity are the sciences of 21st century, whose research method is another revolution for scientific methodology since modern times, and will provide people with new solutions to uncover the miracles of the nature. The researches needed for complex systems and complexity in natural phenomena, society, economy, polity, military, biology, management and engineering (especially aerospace engineering) impose a great challenge to the current theories and methods of modeling and simulation (M&S).While the novel Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) methodology, which is the hot topic today in M&S field, can fulfill the requirements. Based on the theories of complex systems and complexity, the paper has conducted research on ABMS methodology and problems relevant to the M&S of space operation and satellite systems, which are both complex systems. The purpose of the paper is to make ABMS become a perfect theory of M&S, which can instruct the research for complex systems.The provenance of complex systems and complexity was expatiated systematically. Moreover, the theories and methods for complex systems and complexity were also analyzed and summarized. From the views of ontology, epistemology and methodology the apprehension of complexity was also stated. In addition, the significance of M&S in the research of complex systems was emphasized and a research approach for complex systems was proposed. Based on the complexity theories, the complexities of space information system was analyzed and discussed.The ABMS is the uppermost and effective research methodology for complex systems. The basic thoughts, characteristics and application fields of ABMS were stated systematically. After that, a novel conceptual framework for ABMS was proposed creatively, which bounded the research contents of ABMS impliedly. The framework can be view as the evaluation framework for the ABMS system that has been existed. Thereafter, the agent, message, complex systems and agent-based simulation were defined and represented formally according to this framework. The methods of verification and validation for agent-based models were also discussed. What's more, the principles and steps, which should be followed by ABMS, were established.Agent-based modeling, including agent-based models framework and agent-based behavior modeling, were studied thoroughly by multi-formal methods. A 3-tier abstract models framework including entity, object and agent was proposed for agent-based modeling, and the concepts about entity, object, and agent were defined and represented by formal specifications. To model the behavior of agent in virtual environment, an agent-based behavior model including the autonomous behavior model and global interoperable behavior model was synthesized. In addition, the concepts relevant to behavior were defined formally. Based on the behavior model, the formal abstract mechanisms for synthetic and intelligent behavior including behavior aggregate and disaggregate; behavior specialization and generalization were analyzed. This gives the theoretical basis for
realizing the reusability and synthetic of complex behavior. Based on the research of behavior modeling, the early warning behavior of early warning satellite was modeled.According to the requirement of ABMS methodology, an agent-based modeling and distributed simulation software framework including basic simulation service models and agent-based simulation models was put forward firstly. Compared to the other simulation projects, the framework has many advantages, such as platform-independence, scalability, hierarchical, separation from modeling framework and simulation framework, etc.The features of the components and time management algorithm of the framework were described in outline. According to the framework, a prototype of agent-based distributed simulation environment, named as ADSimE (Agent-Based Distributed Simulation Environment) was implemented based on Java. The ADSimE takes full advantage of the idea of object-oriented design. Domain experts can carry through distributed simulation of all fields on ADSimE with great flexibility and simplicity.A communication system of the ADSimE was presented. The whole architecture of the communication system was also established. An agent-based communication framework including XML and KQML was proposed, which can enforce the communication between different agents, and benefit to the cooperation and collaboration between agents, enforce the flexibility and extensibility of the simulation system. The communication protocol between agents in the framework of communication system was based on KQML, and XML as a wrapper of the KQML messages.ABMS methodology was proposed to the uppermost and effective means for the M&S of satellite systems, including multi-satellite system and a single satellite system. The process of ABMS for multi-satellite systems was described firstly, hi addition, the modeling methods and simulation framework were also studied. The library of capabilities and algorithm for satellite agent model were developed to simulate the multi-satellite system. Therefore, a prototype system of agent-based simulation for anti-satellite operation demonstration, named ASSAO was developed based on ADSimE. The ABMS in the M&S of multi-satellite system was validated from the simulation of orbit dynamics, collision avoidance and anti-satellite operation. Researches were made to the M&S of a single satellite too. Two softwares, GN&C V1.0 for the design and simulation of GN&C subsystems of a satellite and SatComm V1.0 for the analysis and evaluation of communication payload&subsystem of a satellite, were developed based on the thoughts of ABMS.The features, details of how to implement and models of the two softwares were described in outline. The two softwares validated the ABMS in the research of M&S for a single satellite.
系统地阐述了复杂系统与复杂性理论的起源,结合前人的研究成果,分析和总结了复杂系统与复杂性有关的理论与方法,从本体论、认识论和方法论角度对复杂性进行了深刻的认识与理解,强调了建模与仿真在复杂系统研究中的重要地位。从复杂性理论出发,对空间信息系统的复杂性进行了分析和探讨,并提出了空间信息系统的研究思路。
ABMS方法学是研究复杂系统的科学方法论。论文详细阐述了ABMS方法学的基本思想、特点和应用领域,提出了基于Agent的建模与仿真概念化框架,并因此界定了ABMS方法的研究内容。在此框架下,给出了ABMS方法学意义下包括Agent、消息、复杂系统以及基于Agent的仿真的形式化描述。讨论了基于Agent的模型校核与确认相关问题,探讨了基于Agent的模型有效性确认方法。建立了规范的ABMS的研究步骤,用来指导和规范复杂系统的建模与仿真,以减少建模与仿真的复杂度,提高模型的重用性与可用性。
采用多种形式化方法对基于Agent的建模方法与模型描述进行了深入的研究,包括基于Agent的模型框架及基于Agent的行为建模两个方面。提出了一个包括实体、对象和Agent在内的三层抽象模型框架,并对相关的概念进行了形式化定义与描述,阐述了Agent模型实现相关的细节。对虚拟环境中Agent的行为建模问题进行了研究,对Agent的动作、行为以及约束等概念进行了定义与描述,提出并形式化描述了一种包含Agent的自主行为和交互行为的行为模型;为了实现复杂的智能行为以及行为的复用与集成,提出了一种包含行为聚合与分解、行为特化与泛化的行为抽象机制,并对该机制进行了形式化描述。在行为建模方法的基础上,对预警卫星的预警行为进行了分析,并对预警卫星的凝视相机的数据获取行为进行了建模。
在ABMS概念化框架的支持下,提出了一种包含仿真基础服务模型和Agent仿真模型在内的基于Agent的建模与分布仿真软件框架,阐述了其中的关键功能组件及相关的时间算法。这种框架具有平台独立、开放性强,重用性强以及支持层次仿真、建模环境与仿真环境分离开来等特点。基于此框架,利用面向对象的思想,采用Java语言实现了一个基于Agent的分布仿真环境原型系——ADSimE,可保证领域专家以最简单、灵活的方式来进行复杂系统分布仿真。
The theories of complex systems and complexity are the sciences of 21st century, whose research method is another revolution for scientific methodology since modern times, and will provide people with new solutions to uncover the miracles of the nature. The researches needed for complex systems and complexity in natural phenomena, society, economy, polity, military, biology, management and engineering (especially aerospace engineering) impose a great challenge to the current theories and methods of modeling and simulation (M&S).While the novel Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) methodology, which is the hot topic today in M&S field, can fulfill the requirements. Based on the theories of complex systems and complexity, the paper has conducted research on ABMS methodology and problems relevant to the M&S of space operation and satellite systems, which are both complex systems. The purpose of the paper is to make ABMS become a perfect theory of M&S, which can instruct the research for complex systems.The provenance of complex systems and complexity was expatiated systematically. Moreover, the theories and methods for complex systems and complexity were also analyzed and summarized. From the views of ontology, epistemology and methodology the apprehension of complexity was also stated. In addition, the significance of M&S in the research of complex systems was emphasized and a research approach for complex systems was proposed. Based on the complexity theories, the complexities of space information system was analyzed and discussed.The ABMS is the uppermost and effective research methodology for complex systems. The basic thoughts, characteristics and application fields of ABMS were stated systematically. After that, a novel conceptual framework for ABMS was proposed creatively, which bounded the research contents of ABMS impliedly. The framework can be view as the evaluation framework for the ABMS system that has been existed. Thereafter, the agent, message, complex systems and agent-based simulation were defined and represented formally according to this framework. The methods of verification and validation for agent-based models were also discussed. What's more, the principles and steps, which should be followed by ABMS, were established.Agent-based modeling, including agent-based models framework and agent-based behavior modeling, were studied thoroughly by multi-formal methods. A 3-tier abstract models framework including entity, object and agent was proposed for agent-based modeling, and the concepts about entity, object, and agent were defined and represented by formal specifications. To model the behavior of agent in virtual environment, an agent-based behavior model including the autonomous behavior model and global interoperable behavior model was synthesized. In addition, the concepts relevant to behavior were defined formally. Based on the behavior model, the formal abstract mechanisms for synthetic and intelligent behavior including behavior aggregate and disaggregate; behavior specialization and generalization were analyzed. This gives the theoretical basis for
realizing the reusability and synthetic of complex behavior. Based on the research of behavior modeling, the early warning behavior of early warning satellite was modeled.According to the requirement of ABMS methodology, an agent-based modeling and distributed simulation software framework including basic simulation service models and agent-based simulation models was put forward firstly. Compared to the other simulation projects, the framework has many advantages, such as platform-independence, scalability, hierarchical, separation from modeling framework and simulation framework, etc.The features of the components and time management algorithm of the framework were described in outline. According to the framework, a prototype of agent-based distributed simulation environment, named as ADSimE (Agent-Based Distributed Simulation Environment) was implemented based on Java. The ADSimE takes full advantage of the idea of object-oriented design. Domain experts can carry through distributed simulation of all fields on ADSimE with great flexibility and simplicity.A communication system of the ADSimE was presented. The whole architecture of the communication system was also established. An agent-based communication framework including XML and KQML was proposed, which can enforce the communication between different agents, and benefit to the cooperation and collaboration between agents, enforce the flexibility and extensibility of the simulation system. The communication protocol between agents in the framework of communication system was based on KQML, and XML as a wrapper of the KQML messages.ABMS methodology was proposed to the uppermost and effective means for the M&S of satellite systems, including multi-satellite system and a single satellite system. The process of ABMS for multi-satellite systems was described firstly, hi addition, the modeling methods and simulation framework were also studied. The library of capabilities and algorithm for satellite agent model were developed to simulate the multi-satellite system. Therefore, a prototype system of agent-based simulation for anti-satellite operation demonstration, named ASSAO was developed based on ADSimE. The ABMS in the M&S of multi-satellite system was validated from the simulation of orbit dynamics, collision avoidance and anti-satellite operation. Researches were made to the M&S of a single satellite too. Two softwares, GN&C V1.0 for the design and simulation of GN&C subsystems of a satellite and SatComm V1.0 for the analysis and evaluation of communication payload&subsystem of a satellite, were developed based on the thoughts of ABMS.The features, details of how to implement and models of the two softwares were described in outline. The two softwares validated the ABMS in the research of M&S for a single satellite.
引文
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