基于系统演化算法的水资源多Agent系统建模仿真研究
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摘要
本文深化复杂适应系统理论在水资源系统研究中的应用，综合运用复杂性科学、水资源优化配置、人工智能、计算机仿真等学科的相关理论和方法，结合我国南水北调东线水资源系统的实际，从理论分析和技术实现的角度对水资源复杂适应系统进行研究。
首先，本文在介绍水资源优化配置、复杂系统和复杂性科学理论、智能Agent理论、一般的复杂适应系统特性、概念、研究方法的基础上，运用复杂适应系统理论对水资源系统进行解析，确定了水资源复杂适应系统研究的基本方法，建立了水资源多Agent系统的概念。
其次，本文研究了水资源多Agent系统的建模，主要包含两部分内容：单Agent抽象和建模，以及系统整体建模。单Agent抽象和建模是在对水资源系统分析的基础上抽象出水资源系统中的Agent，并根据水资源系统Agent的特点，引入智能Agent的研究成果，建立单Agent的理论和结构模型，将经济学研究中对人类行为方式的研究融合到水资源Agent建模的研究中。系统整体建模研究水资源多Agent系统的整体模型，主要考虑如何将单Agent进行组织和协调，实现水资源多Agent系统的协作和进化，以完成水资源多Agent系统的整体目标。在此，本文引入了协同进化机制，建立了水资源多Agent系统的整体协作模型。
接着，本文研究了将水资源系统中的Agent和多Agent系统从概念模型的表达方式向仿真模型的表达方式进行转化。从分析Agent的学习机制入手，建立了水资源多Agent系统的基于遗传算法的三层演化优化模型。从微观个体行为优化级、微观个体交互作用级和宏观系统演化优化级三个层次对优化算法进行了研究。对每一层的优化模型进行了详细的论述，并用具体的例子进行仿真，为后续的水资源多Agent系统仿真框架的建立奠定技术基础。
然后，本文研究了水资源复杂适应系统的仿真问题，对水资源复杂适应系统仿真理论进行了介绍，对基于Agent的仿真技术及其应用进行了探讨，并建立了水资源多Agent系统的仿真框架。
最后，作为水资源复杂适应系统理论的实践应用，本文对南水北调东线工程水资源优化配置问题进行了仿真研究。在了解南水北调东线工程概况的基础上，应用本文建立的水资源复杂适应系统的理论和方法建立了仿真模型，并进行编程实现，然后对仿真结果进行了分析。
Combined with the practice of the east route of south-to-north water transfer project (SNTP),the thesis introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory into the research of waterresources system and studies the water resources complex adaptive system (WRCAS) from threeangles of philosophy, theory and technology by synthetically using the theories and methods ofcomplexity science, water resources allocation, artificial intelligence (AI) and computersimulation.
Firstly, the theory, characters and concept of agent, the standpoint of adaptability leading tocomplexity and the study means of CAS are introduced. Then the technology means of WRCAS isidentified based on the analysis of water resources system according to CAS theory, and then theconcept of water resources multi-agent system (WRMAS) is advanced based on the theoryframework of WRCAS.
Secondly, the modeling of WRMAS is studied, including two parts: agent modeling andsystem modeling. Agent modeling is to abstract the agents from a water resources system based onthe analysis of the water resources system and then to build the theory and structure model of theagents based on AI theory. System modeling is to build the whole model of WRMAS and mainlyconsiders how to organize and harmonize the agents to accomplish the co-evolution and wholeobjects of WRMAS. For this, a system cooperative model is built by the cooperative co-evolutionmechanism is introduced.
Thirdly, the evolution algorithm of WRMAS is studied and a three-level-evolution-model isestablished based on genetic algorithm (GA), which realizes the transition from the conceptualmodel of agent and WRMAS to the simulation model. The three-level-evolution-model studies thesystem evolution algorithm from the three levels: micro-agent behavior level, micro-agentinteraction level and macro-system evolution level. The every level of the model is discussed indetail and illustrated with an example.
Fourthly, the simulation problem of WRMAS is studied and a simulation framework is builtbased on the agent-oriented theory and technology.
Finally, as a practice of WRCAS theory and methods, the water resources allocation theeast-route of SNTP is simulated. Based on the knowledge of the project, a simulation model is setup by the WRCAS theory and methods are applied. The model is programmed in computer andthe simulation results are analyzed in the end of the thesis.
首先，本文在介绍水资源优化配置、复杂系统和复杂性科学理论、智能Agent理论、一般的复杂适应系统特性、概念、研究方法的基础上，运用复杂适应系统理论对水资源系统进行解析，确定了水资源复杂适应系统研究的基本方法，建立了水资源多Agent系统的概念。
其次，本文研究了水资源多Agent系统的建模，主要包含两部分内容：单Agent抽象和建模，以及系统整体建模。单Agent抽象和建模是在对水资源系统分析的基础上抽象出水资源系统中的Agent，并根据水资源系统Agent的特点，引入智能Agent的研究成果，建立单Agent的理论和结构模型，将经济学研究中对人类行为方式的研究融合到水资源Agent建模的研究中。系统整体建模研究水资源多Agent系统的整体模型，主要考虑如何将单Agent进行组织和协调，实现水资源多Agent系统的协作和进化，以完成水资源多Agent系统的整体目标。在此，本文引入了协同进化机制，建立了水资源多Agent系统的整体协作模型。
接着，本文研究了将水资源系统中的Agent和多Agent系统从概念模型的表达方式向仿真模型的表达方式进行转化。从分析Agent的学习机制入手，建立了水资源多Agent系统的基于遗传算法的三层演化优化模型。从微观个体行为优化级、微观个体交互作用级和宏观系统演化优化级三个层次对优化算法进行了研究。对每一层的优化模型进行了详细的论述，并用具体的例子进行仿真，为后续的水资源多Agent系统仿真框架的建立奠定技术基础。
然后，本文研究了水资源复杂适应系统的仿真问题，对水资源复杂适应系统仿真理论进行了介绍，对基于Agent的仿真技术及其应用进行了探讨，并建立了水资源多Agent系统的仿真框架。
最后，作为水资源复杂适应系统理论的实践应用，本文对南水北调东线工程水资源优化配置问题进行了仿真研究。在了解南水北调东线工程概况的基础上，应用本文建立的水资源复杂适应系统的理论和方法建立了仿真模型，并进行编程实现，然后对仿真结果进行了分析。
Combined with the practice of the east route of south-to-north water transfer project (SNTP),the thesis introduces the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory into the research of waterresources system and studies the water resources complex adaptive system (WRCAS) from threeangles of philosophy, theory and technology by synthetically using the theories and methods ofcomplexity science, water resources allocation, artificial intelligence (AI) and computersimulation.
Firstly, the theory, characters and concept of agent, the standpoint of adaptability leading tocomplexity and the study means of CAS are introduced. Then the technology means of WRCAS isidentified based on the analysis of water resources system according to CAS theory, and then theconcept of water resources multi-agent system (WRMAS) is advanced based on the theoryframework of WRCAS.
Secondly, the modeling of WRMAS is studied, including two parts: agent modeling andsystem modeling. Agent modeling is to abstract the agents from a water resources system based onthe analysis of the water resources system and then to build the theory and structure model of theagents based on AI theory. System modeling is to build the whole model of WRMAS and mainlyconsiders how to organize and harmonize the agents to accomplish the co-evolution and wholeobjects of WRMAS. For this, a system cooperative model is built by the cooperative co-evolutionmechanism is introduced.
Thirdly, the evolution algorithm of WRMAS is studied and a three-level-evolution-model isestablished based on genetic algorithm (GA), which realizes the transition from the conceptualmodel of agent and WRMAS to the simulation model. The three-level-evolution-model studies thesystem evolution algorithm from the three levels: micro-agent behavior level, micro-agentinteraction level and macro-system evolution level. The every level of the model is discussed indetail and illustrated with an example.
Fourthly, the simulation problem of WRMAS is studied and a simulation framework is builtbased on the agent-oriented theory and technology.
Finally, as a practice of WRCAS theory and methods, the water resources allocation theeast-route of SNTP is simulated. Based on the knowledge of the project, a simulation model is setup by the WRCAS theory and methods are applied. The model is programmed in computer andthe simulation results are analyzed in the end of the thesis.
引文
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