基于性能（PBL）的航空备件保障方法研究
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摘要
伴随着科学技术的进步和飞机制造业的迅猛发展，我国具有自主知识产权、符合国际适航标准的“新型涡扇喷气支线客机”（ARJ21）下线并首飞成功，随之而来的关于航空备件的保障问题被提上了议事日程，而航空备件的保障系统中，备件保障是其中的关键问题之一。本文以现代先进的PBL保障理论为基础，以ARJ21为研究对象，对航空备件的保障方法进行了相关的研究，构建了基于PBL的航空备件保障过程以及保障能力的评估模型、保障精度的熵权预测模型，提出了航空备件保障的经济性分析方法及分析内容，最后以ARJ21为例，基于PBL理论，把ARJ21的备件保障分为初期保障和持续保障两个阶段，分别提出相应的备件保障模型，并用相关数据对模型进行定量验证。
PBL的保障理论早已被广泛应用于军用飞机的保障活动中，并取得了不菲的业绩，但在民用飞机领域，这种保障方式并不常见，本文首先图解PBL保障过程，描述备件保障过程的概率性序列运算，从而阐明基于PBL的民机可靠性与备件量的关系。由于飞机的可靠性与备件量的多少息息相关，而备件量又与产品的固有故障率、使用率、库存量、维修周期、机队规模等密切相连。本文假设机队规模N=50，分别探讨维修周期tr=30天或60天，使用率β=0.5或0.8，有效利用率A0=0.8或0.95，的条件下，运用MATLAB软件模拟得到飞机可靠性与备件量的关系图。
其次，运用信息熵权理论探讨航空备件保障系统的保障精度问题，分配各误差评价指标的权重，计算各单项预测方法的变异系数，用各误差评价指标的权重、单项预测方法的权重，确定组合权重系数矩阵，最后通过实例分析证明该熵权预测模型的精度。
最后，是对基于PBL的航空备件保障的经济性进行分析。在这里，首先根据获得的航空备件保障的财务报表，应用财务分析软件稽核该财务报表，根据稽核报告，合成现金流量表，生成结构财务报表，分析保障费用的盈亏要素敏感性、基于范霍恩模型的保障活动可持续性、保障活动的经济增加值、自由现金流量、基于K—S模型和边际模型的盈余状况；并用阿塔曼模型评价保障活动的成功与否，用沃尔指数评价保障活动的信用能力，最后用拉巴波特模型评估保障价值。
在基于PBL的航空备件保障策略中，基于ARJ21，提出初期备件保障的周转件、可修件、消耗件预测模型；以及持续备件保障中，根据六种故障模式，对于不可修件，采用随机过程中的更新过程建立其需求量的计算模型，对于故障分布函数复杂，常规方法难于求解的情况，本研究采用MonteCarlo法模拟故障次数，计算不可修件的需求量；对于可修件，根据不同维修方法对备件寿命周期的影响，本研究引用“维修度”量化维修程度，应用遗传算法优化维修度的参数估算值，用广义更新过程建立可修件需求量模型。最后，运用算例检验模型的有效性。
With the advance of science and technology and quick development of aircraft manufacture, theAdvanced Regional Jet (ARJ21) with autonomous intellectual property and international AirworthinessStandard has rolled off the assembly line and made its maiden flight successfully. With it comes theproblem of civil aircraft support on schedule. In the support system of civil aircraft spares, spares support isone of the key problems. Being based on modern PBL guarantee theory and aiming at ARJ21, this thesisconducts related research on spares support of civil aircraft, constructs PBL based appraisal model forsupport’s process and capability and entropy weight forecasting model for support accuracy, presents themethod and content of economic analysis for aircraft spares support. And finally this study takes ARJ21asan example and divides its spares support into initial and sustainable supports on the basis of PBL theory;and then it proposes relevant spares support models respectively, and carries out quantitative verificationfor models by related data.
The PBL guarantee theory has been widely applied in support activities of military airplane for a longtime and has achieved high performance. But this guarantee is seldom utilized in the field of civil aircraft.This article at first shows graphic PBL support process and then describes the probabilistic sequenceoperation of support process; and it accordingly clarifies the relation between PBL based aircraft reliabilityand spares quantity. The aircraft reliability is closely linked with spares quantity which is also closelyconnected with product’s inherent failure rate, usage, inventory quantity, maintenance cycle, fleet size. Inthis article, let fleet size N=50，respectively suppose maintenance cycle tr=30days or60days，usage β=0.5or0.8， and availability A0=0.8or0.95，then the relation diagram of reliability and spares quantitycan be simulated by using software MATLAB.
Next, it explores the support precision of aircraft spares support system by use of information entropyweight theory, distributes the weight of each error index, and calculates the variation coefficient of eachsingle forecasting method. Then it makes use of the weights of each error index and each single forecastingmethod to determine the coefficient matrix of combined weights. And lastly, this article demonstrates theprecision of this entropy weight forecasting model by case study.
At last, the article makes economic analysis for PBL based aircraft spares support. Firstly, it isnecessary to obtain financial statement of aircraft spares support and audit it by financial analysis software.Then, based on the audit report, it synthesizes statement of cash flow, generates structure financialstatement and analyzes sensitivity analysis of profit and loss elements for support costs, sustainabledevelopment for support activity based on Van Home model, economic value added for support activity,free cash flow, and profit and loss based on K-S model and marginal model; and it uses Altman model toevaluate success and failure of support activity, Wole index to evaluate the support credit level andRappaport model to assess support value.
In the PBL based support strategy of civil aircraft spares, this study, in view of ARJ21, raisesforecasting models for circulating parts, reparable parts, and expendable part in the initial spares support. Inthe sustainable spares supports and in term of the six failure models, for the not-reparable parts, this thesisbuilds up the demand calculation model by the update process in stochastic process. Since the failuredistribution function is complex and it is difficult to solve it with a conventional approach, this study adoptsMonte Carlo to simulate number of failures and compute the demand of not-reparable parts. For thereparable parts, according to the impact upon the spares life cycle by different maintenance methods, thisresearch introduces maintenance index to quantize maintenance degree, uses genetic algorithm to optimize the parameter estimation of maintenance degree and applies generalized update process to construct ademand model for reparable parts. In the end, a calculation example is utilized to check the effectiveness ofthe model.
PBL的保障理论早已被广泛应用于军用飞机的保障活动中，并取得了不菲的业绩，但在民用飞机领域，这种保障方式并不常见，本文首先图解PBL保障过程，描述备件保障过程的概率性序列运算，从而阐明基于PBL的民机可靠性与备件量的关系。由于飞机的可靠性与备件量的多少息息相关，而备件量又与产品的固有故障率、使用率、库存量、维修周期、机队规模等密切相连。本文假设机队规模N=50，分别探讨维修周期tr=30天或60天，使用率β=0.5或0.8，有效利用率A0=0.8或0.95，的条件下，运用MATLAB软件模拟得到飞机可靠性与备件量的关系图。
其次，运用信息熵权理论探讨航空备件保障系统的保障精度问题，分配各误差评价指标的权重，计算各单项预测方法的变异系数，用各误差评价指标的权重、单项预测方法的权重，确定组合权重系数矩阵，最后通过实例分析证明该熵权预测模型的精度。
最后，是对基于PBL的航空备件保障的经济性进行分析。在这里，首先根据获得的航空备件保障的财务报表，应用财务分析软件稽核该财务报表，根据稽核报告，合成现金流量表，生成结构财务报表，分析保障费用的盈亏要素敏感性、基于范霍恩模型的保障活动可持续性、保障活动的经济增加值、自由现金流量、基于K—S模型和边际模型的盈余状况；并用阿塔曼模型评价保障活动的成功与否，用沃尔指数评价保障活动的信用能力，最后用拉巴波特模型评估保障价值。
在基于PBL的航空备件保障策略中，基于ARJ21，提出初期备件保障的周转件、可修件、消耗件预测模型；以及持续备件保障中，根据六种故障模式，对于不可修件，采用随机过程中的更新过程建立其需求量的计算模型，对于故障分布函数复杂，常规方法难于求解的情况，本研究采用MonteCarlo法模拟故障次数，计算不可修件的需求量；对于可修件，根据不同维修方法对备件寿命周期的影响，本研究引用“维修度”量化维修程度，应用遗传算法优化维修度的参数估算值，用广义更新过程建立可修件需求量模型。最后，运用算例检验模型的有效性。
With the advance of science and technology and quick development of aircraft manufacture, theAdvanced Regional Jet (ARJ21) with autonomous intellectual property and international AirworthinessStandard has rolled off the assembly line and made its maiden flight successfully. With it comes theproblem of civil aircraft support on schedule. In the support system of civil aircraft spares, spares support isone of the key problems. Being based on modern PBL guarantee theory and aiming at ARJ21, this thesisconducts related research on spares support of civil aircraft, constructs PBL based appraisal model forsupport’s process and capability and entropy weight forecasting model for support accuracy, presents themethod and content of economic analysis for aircraft spares support. And finally this study takes ARJ21asan example and divides its spares support into initial and sustainable supports on the basis of PBL theory;and then it proposes relevant spares support models respectively, and carries out quantitative verificationfor models by related data.
The PBL guarantee theory has been widely applied in support activities of military airplane for a longtime and has achieved high performance. But this guarantee is seldom utilized in the field of civil aircraft.This article at first shows graphic PBL support process and then describes the probabilistic sequenceoperation of support process; and it accordingly clarifies the relation between PBL based aircraft reliabilityand spares quantity. The aircraft reliability is closely linked with spares quantity which is also closelyconnected with product’s inherent failure rate, usage, inventory quantity, maintenance cycle, fleet size. Inthis article, let fleet size N=50，respectively suppose maintenance cycle tr=30days or60days，usage β=0.5or0.8， and availability A0=0.8or0.95，then the relation diagram of reliability and spares quantitycan be simulated by using software MATLAB.
Next, it explores the support precision of aircraft spares support system by use of information entropyweight theory, distributes the weight of each error index, and calculates the variation coefficient of eachsingle forecasting method. Then it makes use of the weights of each error index and each single forecastingmethod to determine the coefficient matrix of combined weights. And lastly, this article demonstrates theprecision of this entropy weight forecasting model by case study.
At last, the article makes economic analysis for PBL based aircraft spares support. Firstly, it isnecessary to obtain financial statement of aircraft spares support and audit it by financial analysis software.Then, based on the audit report, it synthesizes statement of cash flow, generates structure financialstatement and analyzes sensitivity analysis of profit and loss elements for support costs, sustainabledevelopment for support activity based on Van Home model, economic value added for support activity,free cash flow, and profit and loss based on K-S model and marginal model; and it uses Altman model toevaluate success and failure of support activity, Wole index to evaluate the support credit level andRappaport model to assess support value.
In the PBL based support strategy of civil aircraft spares, this study, in view of ARJ21, raisesforecasting models for circulating parts, reparable parts, and expendable part in the initial spares support. Inthe sustainable spares supports and in term of the six failure models, for the not-reparable parts, this thesisbuilds up the demand calculation model by the update process in stochastic process. Since the failuredistribution function is complex and it is difficult to solve it with a conventional approach, this study adoptsMonte Carlo to simulate number of failures and compute the demand of not-reparable parts. For thereparable parts, according to the impact upon the spares life cycle by different maintenance methods, thisresearch introduces maintenance index to quantize maintenance degree, uses genetic algorithm to optimize the parameter estimation of maintenance degree and applies generalized update process to construct ademand model for reparable parts. In the end, a calculation example is utilized to check the effectiveness ofthe model.
引文
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