区域耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究
|
摘要
粮食是国家发展和社会稳定的基础,解决粮食问题也就成了社会和经济发展的基本目标。但是,随着人口增长与资源衰竭矛盾的日益凸现,人类粮食需求量的增加与耕地资源量缩减的矛盾迅速激化,耕地这一维持作物生长、保证粮食供应的基础资源正在承受前所未有的压力。生产力是耕地的基本特征,其稳定性反映了耕地利用系统的结构、功能与发展趋势,目前已成为解决粮食安全问题的热点。因此,如何保证耕地生产力的持续稳定提高成为缓解人地矛盾的关键。但是,目前学术界还未在耕地生产力稳定性研究方面达成一致结论。鉴于此,本文在前人研究的基础上,从耕地生产力趋势性和波动性两个角度,对耕地生产力稳定性评价的理论、方法进行了探讨,并以河北省耕地系统为例,在宏观区域尺度上对耕地生产力稳定性及其影响机理进行实证研究。主要结果如下:
1.耕地生产力稳定性理论和方法论
根据耕地生态系统功能特性和耕地生产力变化特征,提出耕地生产力稳定性的内涵应同时包括粮食产量长期趋势的持续稳定增长和产量波动的最小化。运用经验模态分解法把粮食产量分解为粮食趋势量和粮食波动量,通过建立稳定性模型对两者进行有效拟合,构建了生产力稳定性评价方法体系。
2.河北省耕地生产力稳定性实证评价
(1)1978～2005年河北省粮食总产量稳定性呈从增加到逐步减低的态势,并存在两个较大的变化阶段。2003～2005年耕地生产力稳定性最差,生产力处于衰退阶段,而1978～2001年稳定性指数变化中,有16个年份稳定性处于较差级别,4个年份为较好级别,4个年份为最稳定级别。
(2)河北省粮食总产稳定性结构态势中,从作物种类上,小麦和玉米产量的稳定性对总产量稳定性影响最大:从空间范围上,太行山山前平原区和辽吉西蒙东南冀北山地的稳定性对河北省总体稳定性具有重要影响。
(3)纵观河北全省,有27个县区耕地生产力稳定性处于最差级别,稳定性指数都为负值;17个县区耕地生产力稳定性属于较差等级;64个县区的耕地生产力稳定性较高,属于较稳定级别;35个县的生产力稳定性级别最好。河北省耕地生产力稳定性最差的两个等级的面积占河北省总面积的48%。
3.河北省耕地生产力稳定性因素影响定量化研究
(1)1978～2005年河北省粮食总产趋势量增长了1.72%,粮食作物播种面积趋势量增加对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为51.99%,有效灌溉面积对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为38.68%,科技进步对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为12.73%。农林牧渔业劳动力和支持农业生产和事业支出两个因素的变化抑制了粮食总产趋势量的增长。
(2)在影响河北省粮食总产量波动的因素中,按对粮食总产波动的贡献率大小,依次为成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、粮食作物播种面积、支援农业生产及农业事业费用、降水量和化肥施用量6个主控因素,其影响度的总和达到了78.8%。通过各影响因素的影响度综合分析可知,自然资源、固定资产和可变要素投入的波动性变化是河北省耕地生产力波动形成的主要原因。
Grain production is the basis of social stability and development, therefore, solve the food problem will become a basic objective for social and economic development. However, with increasing of population and resource exhaustion, the confliction between human demands for food strengthen and cultivated land reducing is gradually intensified. Productivity is the basic characteristic of farmland. The stability of productivity implies the structure, function and developmental directions, which has become a hot issue to solve the current food security. Therefore, how to ensure the continuous stability of farmland productivity were the key to ease confliction between people and land use. Nevertheless, there are no integrated theories, means and methods on the stability of farmland productivity at present. Based on previous research, the paper focus on Hebei province case and discuses the theory and methods on assess stability of farmland productivity in view of trends and fluctuations. The main findings as follows:
1. Stability theory and methodology of farmland productivity
Based on the ecosystem function of farmland and characteristics of food productivity, the paper pointed out connotation of food productivity stability includes long-term sustained and stable growth of output in food production and minimize fluctuations. By Empirical mode decomposition (HMD) method, the food productivity was divided into trends and fluctuations. And then, stability models fit the two factors effectively to build evaluation system of productive stability.
2. Stability evaluation of farmland productivity in Hebei province
(1) From 1978 to 2005, the stability of grain output in Hebei Province was fluctuating from increase to decrease. There are two significant stages. The stability of crop productivity was worst from 2003 to 2005, recession in a stage of productivity. As to stability index from 1978 to 2001, there were 16 years in the unstable grade, 4 years in the stable grade and 4 years in the most stable grade.
(2) During the formation of crop productivity stability in Hebei Province, wheat and corn output plays the most important role on total production. Piedmont of the Taihang Mountains and northern Hebei province has the significant impact on overall stability.
(3) In Hebei province, stability of crop productivity in twenty seven counties is worst and the corresponding stability index is negative; stability of the crop productivity in one seventeen counties belongs to the unstable grade; sixty four counties have poor food productivity, belonging to the stable grade; stability of crop productivity in thirty five counties is best. The cultivated land areas which belong to the unstable grade accounted for 48% of the whole province.
3. Factors of productive stability in Hebei Province
(1) From 1978 to 2005, grain output increases 1.72% in Hebei province. There are several factors could influence stability of crop productivity and the contribution rate is various. The cultivated area increasing has a positive effect on the crop output and accounts for 51.99%; effective irrigation area accounts for 38.68%; scientific and technological progress accounts for 12.73%. However, Agricultural input and business spending suppress the output increasing.
(2) The factors which influence output fluctuation in Hebei province were classified into hazard area、effective irrigation, planting area, supporting spending, rainfall and fertilizer application according to contribution rate to crop productivity fluctuation. They could account for 78.82% compare with other factors. Analysis by influence degree, we conclude that fluctuation of natural resources、permanent assets and various constituents was the main contributor for crop productivity fluctuation in Hebei province.
1.耕地生产力稳定性理论和方法论
根据耕地生态系统功能特性和耕地生产力变化特征,提出耕地生产力稳定性的内涵应同时包括粮食产量长期趋势的持续稳定增长和产量波动的最小化。运用经验模态分解法把粮食产量分解为粮食趋势量和粮食波动量,通过建立稳定性模型对两者进行有效拟合,构建了生产力稳定性评价方法体系。
2.河北省耕地生产力稳定性实证评价
(1)1978～2005年河北省粮食总产量稳定性呈从增加到逐步减低的态势,并存在两个较大的变化阶段。2003～2005年耕地生产力稳定性最差,生产力处于衰退阶段,而1978～2001年稳定性指数变化中,有16个年份稳定性处于较差级别,4个年份为较好级别,4个年份为最稳定级别。
(2)河北省粮食总产稳定性结构态势中,从作物种类上,小麦和玉米产量的稳定性对总产量稳定性影响最大:从空间范围上,太行山山前平原区和辽吉西蒙东南冀北山地的稳定性对河北省总体稳定性具有重要影响。
(3)纵观河北全省,有27个县区耕地生产力稳定性处于最差级别,稳定性指数都为负值;17个县区耕地生产力稳定性属于较差等级;64个县区的耕地生产力稳定性较高,属于较稳定级别;35个县的生产力稳定性级别最好。河北省耕地生产力稳定性最差的两个等级的面积占河北省总面积的48%。
3.河北省耕地生产力稳定性因素影响定量化研究
(1)1978～2005年河北省粮食总产趋势量增长了1.72%,粮食作物播种面积趋势量增加对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为51.99%,有效灌溉面积对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为38.68%,科技进步对粮食总产趋势量增长的贡献率为12.73%。农林牧渔业劳动力和支持农业生产和事业支出两个因素的变化抑制了粮食总产趋势量的增长。
(2)在影响河北省粮食总产量波动的因素中,按对粮食总产波动的贡献率大小,依次为成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、粮食作物播种面积、支援农业生产及农业事业费用、降水量和化肥施用量6个主控因素,其影响度的总和达到了78.8%。通过各影响因素的影响度综合分析可知,自然资源、固定资产和可变要素投入的波动性变化是河北省耕地生产力波动形成的主要原因。
Grain production is the basis of social stability and development, therefore, solve the food problem will become a basic objective for social and economic development. However, with increasing of population and resource exhaustion, the confliction between human demands for food strengthen and cultivated land reducing is gradually intensified. Productivity is the basic characteristic of farmland. The stability of productivity implies the structure, function and developmental directions, which has become a hot issue to solve the current food security. Therefore, how to ensure the continuous stability of farmland productivity were the key to ease confliction between people and land use. Nevertheless, there are no integrated theories, means and methods on the stability of farmland productivity at present. Based on previous research, the paper focus on Hebei province case and discuses the theory and methods on assess stability of farmland productivity in view of trends and fluctuations. The main findings as follows:
1. Stability theory and methodology of farmland productivity
Based on the ecosystem function of farmland and characteristics of food productivity, the paper pointed out connotation of food productivity stability includes long-term sustained and stable growth of output in food production and minimize fluctuations. By Empirical mode decomposition (HMD) method, the food productivity was divided into trends and fluctuations. And then, stability models fit the two factors effectively to build evaluation system of productive stability.
2. Stability evaluation of farmland productivity in Hebei province
(1) From 1978 to 2005, the stability of grain output in Hebei Province was fluctuating from increase to decrease. There are two significant stages. The stability of crop productivity was worst from 2003 to 2005, recession in a stage of productivity. As to stability index from 1978 to 2001, there were 16 years in the unstable grade, 4 years in the stable grade and 4 years in the most stable grade.
(2) During the formation of crop productivity stability in Hebei Province, wheat and corn output plays the most important role on total production. Piedmont of the Taihang Mountains and northern Hebei province has the significant impact on overall stability.
(3) In Hebei province, stability of crop productivity in twenty seven counties is worst and the corresponding stability index is negative; stability of the crop productivity in one seventeen counties belongs to the unstable grade; sixty four counties have poor food productivity, belonging to the stable grade; stability of crop productivity in thirty five counties is best. The cultivated land areas which belong to the unstable grade accounted for 48% of the whole province.
3. Factors of productive stability in Hebei Province
(1) From 1978 to 2005, grain output increases 1.72% in Hebei province. There are several factors could influence stability of crop productivity and the contribution rate is various. The cultivated area increasing has a positive effect on the crop output and accounts for 51.99%; effective irrigation area accounts for 38.68%; scientific and technological progress accounts for 12.73%. However, Agricultural input and business spending suppress the output increasing.
(2) The factors which influence output fluctuation in Hebei province were classified into hazard area、effective irrigation, planting area, supporting spending, rainfall and fertilizer application according to contribution rate to crop productivity fluctuation. They could account for 78.82% compare with other factors. Analysis by influence degree, we conclude that fluctuation of natural resources、permanent assets and various constituents was the main contributor for crop productivity fluctuation in Hebei province.
引文
[1]FAO.FESLM:An International Framework for Evaluating Sustainable Land Management.Rome:World Soil Resources Report,1993,73.
[2]张晋科.中国耕地的粮食生产能力研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2007.et al
[3]FAO.The state of food insecurity in the world 2003.http://www.fao.org.
[4]FAO.The state of food insecurity in the world 2002.http://www.fao.org.
[5]丁声俊,朱立志.世界粮食安全形势及其保障对策[J].农业经济问题,2002,(6):46-49.
[6]陈劲松,余贤.2003年中国农村经济形势分析与2004年展望[J].中国农村经济,2004,(2):4-11.
[7]Brown L.R.Who will feed China?.Wake-up call for a small planet[M].Worldwatch Institute,New York,1995.
[8]Brown,Brain Halweil.China's water shortage could shake world food security[J].World Watch,1998,11(4):10-18.
[9]Paarlberg Robert L.Feeding China:a confident view[J].Food Policy,1997,22(3):269-279.
[10]World Bank.China:long-term food security report.East Asia and Pacific Regional Office,China and Mongolia Department,Ruraland Social Development Operations Division,Washington,D.C.,1997.
[11]黄季煜.中国的食物安全问题[J].中国农村经济,2004,(10):4-10.
[12]陈百明.论“谁来养活中国”[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3):210-215.
[13]彭珂珊.走向21世纪5000亿公斤粮食目标与耕地资源保护之探讨[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,21(4):75-81.
[14]刘彦随,吴传钧.中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全[J].自然资源报,2002,17(3):270-275.
[15]刘振伟.我国粮食安全的几个问题[J].农业经济问题,2004,(12):8-13.
[16]石少龙.2003年粮食安全研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2004,(9):4-10.
[17]毕于运,郑振源.建国以来中国实有耕地面积增减变化分析[J].资源科学,2000,22(2):8-12
[18]封志明,李香莲.耕地与粮食安全战略:藏粮于土,提高中国土地资源的综合生产能力[J].地理学与国土研究,2000,16(3):1-5.
[19]姜长云.关于我国粮食安全的若干思考[J].农业经济问题,2005,(2):44-48.
[20]蔡运龙.中国经济高速发展中的耕地问题[J].资源科学,2000,22(3):24-28.
[21]潘明才.新时期耕地保护与可持续发展[J].北京:中国大地出版社,2004.
[22]张士功.中国耕地资源安全[D].北京:中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,2005
[23]张士功.中国耕地资源的基本态势及其近年来数量变化研究[J].中国农学通报,2005,21(6):374-378.
[24]熊华,谭丽燕,王争艳.南宁市粮食生产影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(6):46-50.
[25]石玉林,康庆禹,赵存兴等.中国宜农荒地资源[M].北京:北京科学技术出版社,1985.
[26]李元.生存与发展.北京:中国大地出版社,1997.
[27]陈百明.中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[28]张凤荣.中国土地资源及其可持续利用.北京:中国农业大学出版社,2000.
[29]张凤荣.耕地总量动态平衡应注意的几个问题[J].中国土地,1998,(11):28-30
[30]张迪,张凤荣,安萍莉等.中国现阶段后备耕地资源经济供给能力分析.资源科学,2004,26(5):46-52.
[31]尹成杰.关于提高粮食综合生产能力的思考[J].农业经济问题,2005,(1):5-10
[32]鲁靖,许成安.构建中国的粮食安全保障体系[J].农业经济问题,2004,(8):29-79.
[33]彭留英,我国中部地区农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.2007.
[34]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[35]刘爱智.沧州市耕地生产力变化分析及其对策研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(12):2897-2898,2902.
[36]许皞.耕地生产力更新与耕地持续利用研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,1999.
[37]冯耀宗.人工生态系统稳定性概念及其指标[J].生态学杂志,2002,21(5):58-60.
[38]马克明,孔红梅,关文彬等.生态系统健康评价:方法与方向[J].生态学报,2001,21(12):2106-2116.
[39]蔡晓明.生态系统生态学.北京:科学出版社,2000.
[40]李茂,张洪业.中国耕地和粮食生产力变化的省际差异研究[J].资源科学,2003,25(3):49-56.
[41]Klingebiel A.A,Montgomery P.H Land Capability Classification.US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD.Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[D].Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China,2001.
[42]Black J.K,Watson D.J.Phontosynthesis and the theory of obtaining high crop yields[J].Field crop absts,1960,13:165-175.
[43]Bonner J.The upper limit of crop yields[J].Science,1962,137:11-15.
[44]Loomis R.S.,Williams W.A.Maximum crop productivity:an estimate[J].Crop science,1963,(3).
[45]竺可桢.论我国气候的几个特点及其与粮食作物生产的关系[J].地理学报,1964,30(1):1-13.
[46]田国良.呼伦贝尔草原的太阳光辐射能和光合潜力[J].地理学报,1980,35(1):76-82.
[47]梁荣欣.水稻的气候土壤生产潜力估算.自然资源[J],1984,(2):68-73.
[48]候光良,蒋世逵.西藏高原1～12月平均温度的估算问题[J].地理学报,1980,35(3):265-269.
[49]李继由.西藏地区光合生产力估算[J].资源科学,1980,(1):58-62.
[50]于沪宁,赵丰收.光热资源和农作物的光热生产潜力[J].气象学报,1982,40(3):327-333.
[51]方光迪.三江地区光、热资源与作物生产潜力[J].气象学报,1985,43(3):321-331.
[52]赵名茶.作物可利用的光能-对光合潜力公式的检验和探讨[M].地理集刊,北京:科学出版社, 1985,(17):35-48.
[53]王菱,陈沈斌,候光良.利用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸发的高度订正方法[J].气象学报,1988,46(3):381-383..
[54]Gunther Fischer,Harrij van Velthuizen,Mahendra Shah,et al.Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century:Methodology and Results[J].2002.
[55]胡新艳,刘一明,牛宝俊.东南沿海地区耕地资源承载力研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2001,(1):21-24.
[56]白莉萍,陈阜.国内外作物生产潜力研究现状与评价[J].作物杂志,2002,(1):7-9.
[57]林毅夫,沈高明.中国农业科研优先序[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1996.
[58]Susan E.Leetmaa,Carlos Amade,and David Kelch.A Comparison of U.S.and EU Agricultural Productivity With Implications for EU Enlargement[J].Economic Research Service,USDA,33-48.
[59]B.A.M.Bouman.A conceptual framework for the improvement of crop water productivity at different spatial scales[J].Agricultural Systems 2007,93:43-60.
[60]Raj Gupta,Ashok Seth review of resource conserving technologies for sustainable management of the rice-wheat cropping systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains(IGP)[J].Crop Protection 2007,26:436-447.
[61]Gyanendra Singh.Estimation of a Mechanisation Index and Its Impact on Production and Economic Factors-a Case Study in India[J].Biosystems Engineering,2006,93(1):99-106.
[62]David B.Lobell,J.Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio,Gregory P.Asner,Pamela A.Matson b,Rosamond L.Naylor d,Walter P.FalconAnalysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico[J].Field Crops Research 2005,94:250-256.
[63]Heikki Lehtonen,llona Ba"rlund,Sirkka Tattari,Mikael Hilden.Combining dynamic economic analysis and environmental impact modelling Addressing uncertainty and complexity of agricultural development[J].Environmental Modelling & Software 2007,22:710-718.
[64]Reimund P.Roetter,Marrit van den Berg,Alice G.Laborte.Combming farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource Management in East and South-east Asia[J].Environmental Modelling & Software 2007,22:149-157.
[65]Gabriella Mathe-Gaspar,Nandor Fodor,Klara Pokovai.Crop modelling as a tool to separate the influence of the soil and weather on crop yields[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 2005,30:165-169.
[66]S.Landau,R.A.C.Mitchell,V.Barnett,etal.A parsimonious,multiple-regression model of wheat yield response to environment[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2000,101:151-166.
[67]Daniel F.Calderini),Gustavo A.Slafer.Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century[J].Field Crops Research.57_1998:335-347.
[68]David B.Lobell,Gregory RAsner.Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S.Agricultural Yields[J].Science,2003,299,1032.
[69]J.E.Olesen,RK.Bocher,T.Jensen.Comparison of scales of climate and soil data for aggregating simulated yields of winter wheat in Denmark[J]Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2000,82: 213-228.
[70]David B. Lobell, Gregory P. Asner.Cropland distributions from temporal unmixing of MODIS data[J].Remote Sensing of Environment, 2004, 93: 412—422.
[71]G.H.J. de Koninga, A. Veldkamp, L.O. Fresco.Land use in Ecuador: a statistical analysis at different aggregation levels[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 1998, 70: 231—247.
[72]T. Wassenaarl, P. Lagacheriel, J. P. Legrosl, et al. Modelling wheat yield responses to soil and climate variability at the regional scale[J].CLIMATE RESEARCH Clim Res 1999, (11): 209-220.
[73]A. Veldkamp, L.O.Fresco.reconstrcting Land Use Drivers and their spatial Scale Dependence for Costa Rica, agriculture systems , 1997, 55(1): 19—43.
[74]David B. Lobell, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterioc, Gregory P. Asner. Relative importance of soil and climate variability fornitrogen management in irrigated wheat[J]. Field Crops Research. 2004, 87: 155-165.
[75]Robert A. Brown, Norman J. Rosenberg. Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change ina range of climatic factors and CO, concentrations a simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 83: 171—203.
[76]Sharma B R, Minhas P S. Strategies for managing saline/alkali waters for sustainable agriculture production in South Asia. Agricultural Water Management, 2005, 78: 136—151.
[77]Radin J. W. et al.Yield enhancement in cotton by frequent irrigations during fruiting. Agronomy Journa, 2002, 84(4): 551—557.
[78]John Pender, Ephraim Nkonya, Pamela Jagger, Dick Sserunkuuma and Henry Ssali. Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda[J].Agricultural Economics, 2004, 31 (2-3): 181-195.
[79]Tony T. Finance. Structural and Productivity Change in US agricultural, 1950—1990[J]. Agricultural Economics, 1998, 24(2): 127—147.
[80]Jin, S. et al. The creation and spread of technology and total factor productivity in China's agriculture [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2002, 84(4): 916—939.
[81]Kelly Brumbelow, Aris Georgakakos.Determining crop-water production functions using yieldirrigation gradient algorithms [J]. Agricultural water management 2007, 87: 151 — 161.
[82]Jean-Paul Lhomme and Thierry Winkel.Diversity-Stability Relationships in Community [J]. Theoretical Population Biology 2002, 62: 271 —279.
[83]B.V. Scian, M.E. Bouza.Environmental variables related to wheat yields in the semiarid pampa region of Argentina[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2005, 61: 669—679.
[84]Jeronimo Aznar, Francisco Guijarro.Estimating regression parameters with imprecise input data in an appraisal context[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 176 (2007) 1896—1907.
[85]K. Sieling, C. Stahl, C. Winkelmann, O. Christen.Growth and yield of winter wheat in the first 3 years of a monoculture under varying N fertilization in NW Germany[J]. Europ. J. Agronomy, 2005, 22: 71-84.
[86]S. Sarkar, S.R. Singh.Interactive effect of tillage depth and mulch on soil temperature, productivity and water use pattern of rainfed barley (Hordium vulgare L.)[J]. Soil & Tillage Research, 2007, 92: 79-86.
[87]M.B. Galana, D. Peschard, H. Boizard.ISO 14001 at the farm level Analysis of five methods for evaluating the environmental impact of agricultural practices[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2007, 82: 341-352.
[88]V.E Bail, E-C Bureau, J-P Butault, et al.Levels of Farm Sector P(?)oductivity An International Comparison[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2001, (15): 5—29.
[89]M.C. Manna, A. Swarup, R.H. Wanjari, et al.Long-term effect of fertilizer and manure application on soil organic carbon storage, soil quality and yield sustainability under sub-humid and semi-arid tropical India[J]. Field Crops Research, 2005, 93: 264—280.
[90]Russell S. Crosbie, Justin D. Hughes, John Friend, Basil J. Baldwin.Monitoring the hydrological impact of land use change in a small agricultural catchment affected by dryland salinity in central NSW, Australia[J]. agricultural water management, 2007, 88: 43—53.
[91]M.S. Castellazzi, J.N. Perry, N. Colbach, H. Monod ,K. Adamczyk, V.Viaud.K.F. Conrad.New measures and tests of temporal and spatial pattern of crops in agricultural landscapes [J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 2007, 118: 339—349.
[92]Kuiper, H. et al. Assessment of the food safety issues related to genetically modified foods. Plant [J].2001, (27): 503-528.
[93] K.P. Overmars, G.H.J. de Koning, A. Veldkamp .Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models[J]. Ecological Modelling. 2003, 164: 257-270.
[94]Christien H. Ettema and David A.Wardle. Spatial soil ecology[J].Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2002, 17 (4): 177-183.
[95]Martha M Bakker, Gerard Govers, Mark D.A. Rounsevell.The crop productivity - erosion relationship: an analysis based on experimental work[J].Catena. 2004, 57: 55—76.
[96] J.W. Jones , G Hoogenboom , C.H. Porter, et al.The DSSAT cropping system model[J]Europ. J. Agronomy. 2003, (18): 235-265.
[97]Sasha Hafner.Trends in maize, rice, and wheat yields for 188 nations overthe past 40 years: a prevalence of linear growth[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2003, 97: 275—283.
[98]David B. Lobell, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio c, Walter P. Falcon.Yield uncertainty at the field scale evaluatedwith multi-year satellite data[J].Agricultural Systems, 2007, 92: 76—90.
[99]David B. Lobell , J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Gregory P. Asner, et al. Combining Field Surveys, Remote Sensing, and Regression Trees to Understand Yield Variations in an Irrigated Wheat Landscape[J].American Society of Agronomy, 2005, 97: 241—249.
[100]P.D.jamieson, M.A.Semenov, I.R.Brooking, GS.Francis.Sirius: a mechanistic model of wheat response to environmental variation[J].European Journal of Agronomy, 1998, (8): 161 — 179.
[101]William E.Easterling, Albert Weiss, Cynthia J.Hays, et al.Spatial scales of climate information for simulating wheat and maize productivity: the case of the US Great Plains[J].agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1998, 90: 51—63.
[102]Alma Delia Baez-Gonzalez,Pei-yu Chen,Mario Tiscareno-Lopez,et al.Using Satellite and Field Data with Crop Growth Modeling to Monitor and Estimate Corn Yield in Mexico[J].Crop Sci,2002,42:1943-1949.
[103]Jones H.G,Kiniry J.R.CERS-Maize:a Simulation model of maize growth and Development[J].Texas A & M University Press,College Station,1986.
[104]Van Diepen,Van Kenlen C.A..Penning de Vries.Simulated variability of wheat and rice yields in current weather conditions and in future weather when ambient CO2 haddoubled.Simulation reports CABO-TT 14,Wageningen:CABO-DLO,WAU-TPE.1987.
[105]王昕,许桂红.辽宁农业综合生产能力的结构分析及前景预测[J].辽宁农业科学,1999,(5):38-41.
[106]彭留英,我国中部地区农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.2007
[107]梁勇.广西农业综合生产能力研究[J].广西大学梧州分校学报,2001,11(1):10-12.
[108]杨国涛等.利用C-D函数对宁夏农业综合生产能力影响因素进行实证分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2001,17(2):103-105.
[109]黄季焜,李宁辉.中国农业政策分析与预测模型——CAPSiM[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2):30-41.
[110]吴玉鸣.农业综合生产能力影响因素的灰色关联与协调分析[J].农村经济,2004,(12):19-21.
[111]许建文.论建国以来中国共产党的农业生产力发展观[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,26(5):47-53.
[112]尹希果,陈刚,付翔.我国农业综合生产力影响因素的实证分析[J].统计观察,2005,203(12):73-75.
[113]邓大才.农业大省培育粮食综合生产能力的主要途径[J].粮食问题研究,2005,(1):25-28.
[114]周波,翁贞林,朱述斌.农业综合生产能力的典型相关分析——以江西省为例[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(1):139-143.
[115]夏园,章辉.我国财政支农对农业综合生产能力影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2006,25(5):104-108.
[116]吕向东,王济民,吕新业.我国农业综合生产能力的指标体系及其评价[J].农业经济问题,2005,(增刊):27-33.
[117]陈圣飞.地区间农业生产率的差异及成因分析[J].经济问题,2001,3:37-39.
[118]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法和案例分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003,64-67.
[119]梁俊份.农业技术进步贡献研究综述[J].安徽农学通报,2005,4:17-18,21.
[120]魏权龄.评价相对有效性DEA方法[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1988,7-9.
[121]陈卫平.中国农业生产率增长,技术进步与效率变化(1990～2003年)[J].中国农村经济,2006,1:18-23.
[122]江激宇,李静,孟令杰.中国农业生产率的增长趋势:1978～2002[J].南京农业大学学报,2005,28(3):113-118.
[123]康梅.投资增长模式下经济增长因素分解与经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,2:153-160.
[124]蒋和平,苏基才.我国农业科技进步贡献率的测定分析[J].农业技术经济,2001,5:12-17.
[125]赵洪斌.改革开放以来中国农业技术进步率演进的研究[J].财经研究,2002,2:24-28.
[126]张海道,何有世.江苏省技术进步率贡献率的测算[J].统计观察,2006,2:83-85.
[127]施正剑,吕勇彬.湖北省农业技术进步的地区差异分析[J].农村经济.2602,5:36-38.
[128]石荣丽,黄鹏.云南农业技术进步贡献率测算[J].农业现代化研究,2002,1:76-79.
[129]朱团钦.湖北省科技进步对经济增长的贡献率测算[J].统计观测,2005,1:83-85.
[130]陶江,杨德刚.50年来新疆粮食增产因素的主成分分析[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1):95-99..
[131]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-63.
[132]张献好.山区粮食增长的制约因素与对策[J].作物研究,2002,16(1):41-42.
[133]韩建民.论我国耕地资源的高效利用与粮食增长[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(1):29-33.
[134]陈卫平,郑风田.中国的粮食生产力革命——1953～2003年中国主要粮食作物全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(4):56-61.
[135]陈卫平,我国玉米全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济问题,2006,(2):40-42.
[136]樊胜根.中国农业生产与生产率的增长:新的测算方法及结论[J].农业技术经济,1998,(4):46-50.
[137]崔凯.科技在农业生产函数中的演替分析[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(6):997-999.
[138]江云,马友华,陈伟等.作物水分利用率的影响因素及其提高途径探讨[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(9):269-273.
[139]郑家国,张鸿,姜心禄等.多熟制条件下节水抗旱农作模式的水分利用率研究[J].西南农业学报,2006,19(6):1039-1043.
[140]艾合买提·那由甫,田长彦,卡地尔托合提.渭干河灌区粮食作物低产变高产示范研究报告[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):81-85.
[141]刘小鹏,陈再高,何樊伍.提高科技对粮食增产效果及对粮食贡献率的建议[J].安徽农学通报,2005,11(2):15-16,29.
[142]汪建国,汪琦.应用粳米淋饭酒母%玉米淀粉喂浆开发清爽型黄酒的工艺[J].中国酿造,2006(7):50-51.
[143]张建平.山西省粮食产量及粮食作物结构变化趋势的相关分析[J].中国农学通报,22(12):516-520.
[144]杨志龙,郑颖.试论西部贫困地区农村产业结构调整中的粮食生产问题[J].兰州商学院学报,23(4):23-27.
[145]王学真,石雪莲,高峰.山东省粮食生产波动影响因素分析[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006,22(6):18-22.
[146]马红波,褚庆全.我国粮食生产波动及其影响因素分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(27):8735-8737.
[147]Hans-Peter.Piepho A Simplified Procedure for Comparing the Stability of Cropping Systems.A Simplified Procedure for Comparing the Stability of Cropping Systems[J].Biometrics,1996,52(1):315-320.
[148]Roger G.Fuentes,Charles M.Taliaferro.Biomass Yield Stability of Switchgrass Cultivars[J].Trends in new crops and new uses,2002,(3):276-282.
[149]D.Blaise,C.D.Ravindran,and J.V.Singh.Trend and Stability Analysis to Interpret Results of Long-Term.Effects of Application of Fertilizers and Manure to Cotton Grown on Rainfed Vertisols[J].J.Agronomy & Crop Science 192,2006,(2):319-330.
[150]Seung-Ryong Yang,Won W.Koo,William W.Wilson.Heteroskedasticity in Crop Yield Models[J].Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,17(1):103-109.
[151]N.van Duivenbooden,F.R.Veeneklaas.Impact of inorganic fertilizer availability on land use and agricultural production in the Fifth Region of Mali[J]Fertilizer Research 1993,35:193-204.
[152]R.P.Roettera,C.T.Hoanhb,A.G.Laborteb,earl.Integration of Systems Network(SysNet)tools for regional land use scenario analysis in Asia[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2005,20:291-307
[153]D.T.Vere.Investigating improved pasture productivity chang on the New South Wales tablelands[J].Agricultural Economics 1998,18:63-74
[154]Peter B.R.Hazell.Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S.Cereal Production[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1984,66(3):302-311.
[155]Wilfred Candler,Jose Fortuny-Amat,Bruce McCarl.The Potential Role of Multilevel Programming in Agricultural Economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1981,63(3):521-531.
[156]喻翠玲,冯中朝.我国粮食生产的波动性及其影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2006,27(1):7-10.
[157]肖海峰,王姣.我国粮食综合生产能力影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2004,(6):45-49.
[158]鲁靖.中国粮食市场运行与政府宏观调控政策耦合研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2002.
[159]沈琼,潘向东.我国粮食生产波动周期的经济分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报(社科版),2004,(8):10-11.
[160]刘明亮,陈百明.我国近期粮食生产的波动性及其与农业自然灾害发生状况的相关分析[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):78-85.
[161]谈东华,周波,朱述斌.江西省粮食生产周期性波动的实证分析[J].商业研究,2007,(366):141-145.
[163]曾玉平.论我国粮食生产的波动与对策[J].中国粮食经济,1998,(4):13-17.
[164]刘柏文,黄新平.湖北主要农产品长期供求趋势分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),1999,(1):52-54.
[165]王晓红.山东省粮食生产波动及其周期特征的实证分析[J].山东经济,2001,7:64-66.
[166]胡岳岷,任春良.中国粮食生产波动周期再分析[J].东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2007,(5):107-111.
[167]张志强,黄漫红.中国粮食生产景气指数系统的合成指数分析[J].北京农学院学报,2002,(7): 30-34.
[168]Zoltan Berzsenyi,Bela Gyo3rffy,DangQuoc Lap.Effect of crop rotation and fertilisation on maize and wheat yields and yield stability in a long-term experiment[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2000,13:225-244.
[169]Santiago R.Veron,Jose M.Paruelo,Gustavo A.Slafer.Interannual variability of wheat yield in the Argentine Pampas during the 20th century[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2004,103:177-190.
[170]H-P Piepho.Methods for Comparing the Yield Stability of Cropping Systems——A Review[J].J.Agronomy & Crop Science,1998,180:193-213.
[171]Qunying Luo,William Bellotti,Martin Williams,et al.Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2005,132:273-285.
[172]Shekhar Kumar Sinha,Jayesh Talati.Productivity impacts of the system of rice intensification(SRI)A case study in West Bengal,India[J].agricultural water management,2007,87:55-60.
[173]V.K.Arora,P.R.Gajri,H.S.Uppal.Puddling,irrigation,and transplanting-time effects on productivity of rice-wheat system on a sandy loam soil of Punjab,India[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,85:212-220.
[174]J.Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio,David B.Lobell.Remote sensing assessment of regional yield losses due to sub-optimal planting dates and fallow period weed management[J].Field Crops Research,2007,101:80-87.
[175]Bram Govaerts,Ken D.Sayre,JozefDeckers.Stable high yields with zero tillage and permanent bed planting[J].Field Crops Research,2005,94:33-42.
[176]A.A.Leilah,S.A Al-Khateeb.Statistical analysis of wheat yield under drought conditions[J].Journal ofArid Environments,2005,61:483-496.
[177]T.A.Basamba,E.Barrios,E.Ame'zquita,et al.Tillage effects on maize yield in a Colombian savanna oxisol Soil organic matter and P fractions[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,91:131-142.
[178]Martha M.Bakker,Gerard Govers,Frank Ewert,et al.Variability in regional wheat yields as a function of climate,soil and economic variables Assessing the risk of confounding[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2005,110:195-209.
[179]M.Reyniers,K.Maertens,E.Vrindts,et al.Yield variability related to landscape properties of a loamy soil in central Belgium[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,88:262-273.
[180]沈善敏,宇万太,陈欣.施肥进步在粮食增产中的贡献及其地理分异[J].应用生态学报,1998,9(4):386-390.
[181]王春娟.凤翔县粮食产量波动的关联分析[J].陕西农业科学,2000,(7):24-27.
[182]张志强.中国粮食生产系统影响因素的主成分分析[J].北京农学院学报,2001,16(1):65-68.
[183]朱再清,陈方源.湖北省粮食总产波动状况及其原因分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(2):13-16.
[184]唐鸿铃.重庆粮食增产途径分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(西部论坛),2004,(6):62-64.
[185]吴玉鸣,李建霞.通径分析在我国粮食生产相关研究中的应用[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学 版),2003,21(3):95-99.
[186]莱斯特·布朗.谁来养活中国[J].中国农村经济,1995,(3):7-11
[187]孙鹤,施锡锉.制度变迁与粮食生产的长波[J].中国农村观察,2000,(1):37-46.
[188]贡凤涛,康长进.江苏粮食生产波动特征分析[J].农业信息探索,1999,(3):14-18
[189]孙文博,张树淼.1996年粮价改革评估及未来改革设想[J].中国物价,1996,(8):9-11.
[190]丁声俊.中国粮食流通改革论[J].农业经济问题,1998,(6):3-8.
[191]蒋乃华,张雪梅.中国粮食生产稳定与波动成因的经济分析[J].农业技术经济,1998,(6):40-44.
[192]尹成杰.关于我国粮食生产波动的思考及建议[J].农业经济问题,2003,(10):4-10.
[193]焦长丰,白人朴.我国选择性农业保护政策的研究[J].中国农业大学学报,1997,2(2):7-12.
[194]胡小平.宏观政策是影响中国粮食生产的决定性因素[J].经济研究参考,2002,(15):30-31.
[195]徐翔,孙文华.WTO背景下中国粮食生产波动分析田[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(2):113-116.
[196]吴志华,徐子恺,施国庆.南水北调对稳定粮食产量的贡献研究[J].中国水利,2003,(6):38-41.
[197]张志强,邓蓉,王中华.中国粮食生产波动原因分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2003,(3):11-12.
[198]Enrique R.Arzac.An Econometric Evaluation of Stabilization Policies for the U.S.Grain Market[J].Western Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,4(1):.
[199]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1998,(5):14-20.
[200]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005,(3):24-28.
[201]肖国安,王文涛.粮食产量主要影响因素实证分析及政策选择[J].河南科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,10(2):90-93.
[202]Kueh,Y.Y.Weather cycles and agricultural instability in China[J].Agricultural Economics,1986,37(1):101-104.
[203]Downing,T.E.Climate change and vulnerable food security and country studies in Zimbabwe Chile.Environment Change Unit,Kenya,Senegal University of Oxford.1992.
[204]Roger W.Buckland.Implications of Climatic Variability for Food Security in the Southern African Development Community(SADC)[J].Internet Journal for African Studies,1997,2:24-28.
[205]Stanley C.Stevens.Evidence for a weather persistence effect on corn,wheat and soybean growing season price dynamics,Futures Markets,2(1997):376-383.
[206]Chi-Chung Chen,Ching-Cheng Chang.Climate Change and CropYield Distribution:Some New Evidence from Panel Data Models.IEAS Working Paper No.04—A001 January,2004
[207]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境 2003,17(2):60-64.
[208]孙芳,杨修.农业气候变化脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):170-173.
[209]姜爱林、包纪祥、刘赢洲.耕地概念的界定与耕地质量评价的新方法探讨[J].中国地质矿产经济,1999(5):20-25.
[210]朱德举.中国耕地保护[M].北京:中国大地出版社,1997.
[211]夏早发,关于耕地概念的研究[J].中国土地科学,1999,11(4):13-75.
[212]邹玉川,建立耕地资源安全体系,小城镇建设,2001(6):10-11.
[213]马克思.资本论[M].人民出版社,1975.
[214]高旺盛.北方农牧交错带农业系统生产力研究方法分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2002,18(4):179-282.
[215]魁奈.魁奈经济著作选集[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981.
[216]斯大林.斯大林选集[M].北京:人民出版社,1979.
[217]王启荣.生产力二要素论之探讨[J].江汉学报,1962,(7):9-12.
[218]张鱼.对于生产力问题的商榷[J].学习,1950,(7):23-15.
[219]林京耀.关于生产力要素的问题[N].光明日报,1959,12-17.
[220]骆耕漠.关于生产力二要素或三要素问题的研究[J].江汉学报,1962,(3):1-6.
[221]项启源,余少波.试论现代生产力诸要素[M].中国经济问题,1980,(5):7-13.
[222]薛永应.生产力经济学[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,1986.
[223]李斯特.政治经济学的国民体系[M].北京:商务印书馆,1961.
[224]Gordon R.Conway(1987)Gordon R.Conway & Jules N.Pretty.Fertilizer risks in the developing countries[J].Nature,334:207-208.
[225]曾本祥.农业生态经济系统生产力理论初探[J].生态经济,1990,(3):9-12.
[226]韩纯儒.农业系统生产力(ASP)的量化及其现状分析[J].生态学杂志,1993,12(2):21-22
[227]任继周.草地农业生态学[M].农业出版社,1995.
[228]高旺盛,隋鹏,陈源泉.北京市现代集约农业可持续性分析与战略选择[J].中国农业资源与区划,2001,22(6):27-30.
[229]Klingebiel A.A,Montgomery P.H Land Capability Classification.US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[J].Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China,2001.
[230]金野隆光(林齐民译).土壤配肥原理[M].福建科技出版社,1983.
[231]梁朝仪.土地评价[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992.
[232]林培.土地资源学[M].中国农业大学出版社,1996.
[233]黎孟波.土壤肥力研究进展[M].中国科技出版社,1991.
[234]王建武.县域农业土地利用系统定量化分析方法研究与实践[C].中国农业大学博士学位论文,1998.
[235]Driessen,P.M.,Land use system analysis[M].Wageningen Agri.Univ.
[236]王学真,石雪莲,高峰.山东省粮食生产波动影响因素分析[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版)[J]2006,22(6):18-22.
[237]郝金良,王冬,薛新伟.天气政策因素对我国粮食增产作用的定量分析及政策模拟[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,1998,14(1):36-41.
[238]崔步礼,常学礼,陈雅琳等.粮食产量变化及影响因素分析_以山东省东营市为例[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(11):2549-2550,2552.
[239]唐华仓.生产要素对粮食产量的贡献系数分析[J].生产力研究,2007,(12):20-21.
[240]古玉丽,乔欢欢.我国粮食产量与化肥使用量之间的实证分析[J].农村经济与科技,2007,(10):12-13.
[241]郭淑敏,马帅,陈印军.我国粮食主产区粮食生产影响因素研究[J].农业现代化研究,2007,28(1):83-87.
[242]罗小锋.自然灾害对湖北粮食产量的影响分析[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):109-113.
[243]王艳丽,刘会平,潘安定等.山西省水旱灾害及其对粮食生产的影响[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2004,3(5):443-447.
[244]张星.福建粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性研究[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):232-234.
[245]武永峰,李茂松,蒋卫国.不同经济地带旱灾灾情变化及其与粮食单产波动的关系[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):205-210.
[246]王桂荣,李志宏,王慧军等.河北省农业自然灾害发生的特点、成因及对策研究[J].河北林果研究,2007,22(3):274-27.
[247]叶正伟.江苏旱涝灾害对农业经济的影响及承灾系统分析[J].江苏农业科学,2006,(4):5-7.
[248]任志祥.中国经济波动与世界经济周期的协动性研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2004.
[249]史建明.河北省经济波动周期性及成因的实证研究[D].天津:河北工业大学,2007
[250]孙武,侯玉,张勃.生态脆弱带波动性、人口压力、脆弱度之间的关系[J].生态学报,2000,20(3):369-373.
[251]朱再清.1978年以来湖北省粮食生产波动状况分析[J].湖北农业科学,2002,(5):13-16.
[252]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].干旱区自然与环境,2003,17(2):60-64.
[253]孙武、吴薇.内蒙古高原东南部降水驱动的农业系统波动性分析[J].植物生态学报,26(1):23-28.
[254]韩博平.生态系统稳定性:概念及其表征.华南师范大学学报,1994,(2):37-45.
[255]MacArthur R.Fluctuations of animal populations,and a measure of community stability.Ecology,1955,36:533-536.
[256]Volker Grimm,Christian Wissel.Babel,or the ecological stability discussions:an inventory and analysis of terminology and a guide for avoiding confusion.Oecologia,1997,109:323-334.
[257]Pimm S L.The complexity and stability of ecosystem.Nature,2000,403:843-845.
[258]孙儒泳.动物生态学原理(第2版)[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1992.
[259]高亮之.农业系统学基础.南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1993.
[260]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[M].南京农业大学,1998.
[261]Enjiang Cheng.Household Heads,Non-economic Factors and Grain Production in China in The 1990s.Working Paper Chinese E-conomies Research Centre School of Economics in The University of Adelaide Australia,1998.
[262]Yang Hong.Sources of Productivity Disparities in Regional Grain Production in China.Working Paper of Chinese Economy Research Unit in the University of Adelaide Australia 1996.
[263]林毅夫.制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1999.
[264]林毅夫.再论制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].北京大学出版社,2000.
[265]石森昌、林秀梅.中国粮食生产模型与投入要素效益分析[M].吉林农业大学学报,2003.
[266]黄季琨、王巧军、陈庆根.农业生产资源的合理配置研究:水稻生产的投入产出分析,中国水稻科学[J].1995,(7).
[267]孔祥智,庞晓鹏,张云华.北方地区小麦生产的投入要素及影响因素实证分析[J].中国农村观察 2004.(4):2-8.
[268]Food and Agriculture Organization of the Unite Nations(FAO).Foodcrops and Shortages[Z].2004.
[269]胡冰川,吴强,周曙东 粮食生产的投入产出影响因素分析-基于江苏省粮食生产的实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(1):71-75.
[270]叶琪.农业劳动力转移、粮食安全与农民长期增收机制[J].安徽农学通报,2005,11(5):4-5.
[271]刘克春.粮食生产波动影响因素的实证分析——以江西省为例[J].特区经济,2007,12:188-189.
[272]张永霞.中国农业生产率测算及实证研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2006.
[273]林燕,于冷.中国粮食产量波动分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2006,28(3):346-350.
[274]秦宛顺,靳云汇,王明舰.经济周期波动的谱分析方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1996,(11):32-37.
[275]董文泉,高文泉,姜诗章,等.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社,1998.
[276]陈磊,张屹山.我国转轨时期经济周期波动的谱分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2001,(1):18-21.
[277]程小慷,杜文.中国经济增长的波动分析[J].西南交通大学学报,2002,37(3):309-313.
[278]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[J].气象出版社.1999.
[279]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et ai.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary series analysis.Proc R Soc Lond A,1998,454:899-995.
[280]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R.A new view of nonlinear water waves:the Hilberts spectrum.Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics,1999,31:417-457.
[281]林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):90-96.
[282]熊学军,郭炳火,胡筱敏,等.EMD 方法和 HILBERT 谱分析法的应用与探讨[J].黄渤海海洋.2002,20(2),12-21.
[283]万仕全,封国林.基于EMD方法的观测数据信息提取与预测研究[J].气象学报,2005,8,63(4):516-525.
[284]杨宇,于德介,程军圣,等.经验模态分解(EMD)在滚动轴承故障诊断中的应用[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2003,30(5):25-31.
[285]赵犁丰,张晓亮,宋洁.利用 EMD 方法和小波变化进行信号奇异性检测[J].青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(5):759-763.
[286]胡劲松,杨世锡,周方浩,等.旋转机械振动信号基于EMD的HT和Winger分布时频分析比较[J].汽轮机技术,2003,45(5):308-314.
[287]黄长蓉.Hilbert变换及其应用[J].成都气象学院学报,1999.9.
[288]刘会玉,林振山.等.基于EMD的我国粮食生产波动多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):745-751.
[289]石祥升,林振山.华北地区早-湿转变周期的动力研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):436-442.
[290]刘会玉,张明阳,林振山.建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化的多时机尺度分析[J].资源科学,2004,26(1):107-112.
[291]张明阳,林振山,刘会长.我国西北地区干湿转换时间的研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):45-54.
[292]王梅,曲福田.基于变异率的中国50多年的耕地变化动因分析[J].资源科学,2005,27(2):39-44.
[293]苏金明.MATLAB6.1实用指南[M].电子工业出版社,2002.
[294]朱泽.中国粮食安全状况研究.中国农村经济[J].1997.
[295]张越杰,王军.吉林省粮食产量波动分析[J].农业技术经济,2007,3:74-79.
[296]梅长林,周家良.实用统计方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[297]黄新平,刘柏文.湖北省粮食生产波动分析[J].统计与决策,1999,5:21-23.
[298]李明忠.山西省粮食生产波动分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2001,23(6):27-30.
[299]杜江,刘渝.城市化发展与粮食产量增长的动态分析:1949～2004[J].当代经济科学,2007,29(4):100-107,128.
[300]蒲淳.中国粮食易损性的灰色关联分析[J].资源科学,1999,21(3):77-81.
[301]吴小欢,覃菊莹,吕跃进.区间数判断矩阵的一致性及权重计算[J].模糊系统与数学,2007,21(5):113-119.
[302]魏翠萍,张玉忠,冯向前.区间数判断矩阵的一致性检验及排序方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,(10):132-139.
[303]党进谦,张新和,李靖.水土保持与耕地资源持续利用[J].农业工程学报,2003,19(6):283-286..
[304]许月卿,李秀彬.河北省粮食生产灰色关联动态分析[J].地理研究,2002,21(3):339-346.
[305]李英杰,孙世刚,杨兰伟.粮食安全框架下的河北农民增收对策[J].河北农业科学,2005,9(2):96-99.
[306]李玉平,蔡运龙.河北省耕地压力动态分析与预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(4):1-5.
[307]高志强、刘纪远、庄大方.中国土地资源生态环境质量状况分析,自然资源学报,1999,14(1):93-96.
[308]杨娟.为政之要首在足食—关于粮食问题的再思考,粮食问题研究,2004,(4):10-12.
[309]武兰芳,陈阜,欧阳竹.华北平原粮食生产持续发展面临的困境与对策—以河北藁城粮食生产为例[J].中国农业科技导报,2002,4(6):40-44.
[310]马骥,蔡晓羽.农户降低氮肥施用量的意愿及其影响因素分析—以华北平原为例[J].中国农村 经济,2007,(9):9-16.
[311]马凌.全面建设小康社会与提升河南农业综合竞争力的对策研究[J].集团经济研究,2006,(2):139-141.
[312]郭海洋,梁山,胡建.河北省耕地变化与粮食产量灰色关联分析[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(21):5740-5741,5744.
[313]杨萍果,毛任钊.赵建林,等.区域粮食综合生产能力及粮食安全分析—以河北省石家庄市为例[J].农业工程学报,2006,22(2):279-282.
[314]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[315]林少林.中部欠发达地区农业产业结构调整的战略思考[J].湖湘论坛,2002,(6):93-94.
[316]郭敬振,李辰亮.河北省粮食安全因素分析[J].区域经济,2004,(24):22-23.
[317]郭造强.河北省粮食生产能力的思考[J].中国农业资源与区划,2000,21(3):34-36.
[318]蒋满元.农民收入增长影响因素的因子分析及其对策探讨—以河北省为例[J].江西农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,5(3):38-41.
[319]陈京香.推进农业增长方式转变加快建设现代农业步伐[J].中国农业信息,2007,(7):16-17.
[320]吴凯,袁璋,许越先.河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):499-506.
[321]林毅夫.农民增收减负和确保粮食安全的六大建议[J].21世纪经济报道,2003,12:16-17.
[322]林善浪,张国.中国农业发展问题报告:问题、现状、挑战、对策[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2003.
[323]农业部.2004年中国农业发展报告[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2004.
[324]魏朗.财政支农支出对我国农业经济增长影响的研究——对1999～2003年农业生产贡献率的实证分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2007,(9):11-22.
[325]魏朗.财政支农支出对西部农业经济增长的贡献[J].财经科学,2006,(4):111-118.
[326]赵石磊.财政支农支出与农民纯收入关系研究[J].兰州商学院学报,2007,23(2):17-22.
[327]李剑,成同杰,曾祥静,等.河北省财政支农生产性支出与非生产性支出的对比分析[J].河北农业科学,2006,10(1):69-72.
[328]舒敏,傅新红.我国财政支农支出绩效分析与对策[J].四川农业大学学报,2007,25(2):145-149.
[329]李放,朱靖娟.试论我国财政支农支出口径的调整[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007.7(3):18-26.
[330]刘丽英,董宝生.呈贡县化肥施用现状、存在问题及对策研究[J].云南农业科技,2007,(4):8-10.
[331]徐浪,贾静.化肥施用量对粮食产量的贡献率分析[J].优质粮油,2003,(1):10-13.
[332]曾希柏,陈同斌,胡清秀,等.中国粮食生产潜力和化肥增产效率的区域分异[J].地理学报,2002,57(5):539-546.
[333]马骥.农户粮食作物化肥施用量及其影响因素分析——以华北平原为例[J].农业技术经济,2006,(6):36-42.
[334]管卫华.中国经济增长波动的多尺度分析及其预测[D].南京:南京师范大学,2005.
[336]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲.21世纪初中国粮食短缺地区的空间格局和区域差异[J].地理科学,2007,27(4):463-472.
[337]周四军,谢腾.云中国人口增长与粮食生产的协整研究[J].经济数学,2006,23(4):380-385.
[338]杜晓力,王健,李维军.关于实现河北省农业可持续发展的对策研究[J].河北农业大学学报,2001,3(2):66-68.
[339]陈秀端.陕西省粮食安全区域差异及驱动因素分析[J].2007,21(8):116-120.
[340]洪波,陈浩.耕地非农化对粮食生产影响研究——基于耕地质量变化角度的分析[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(4):127-129.
[341]古玉丽,乔欢欢.河北省粮食生产灰色关联动态分析[J].农村经济与科技,2007,(10):12-13.
[342]邓拥军,王伟,钱成春,等.EMD方法及Hilbert变换中边界问题的处理[J].科学通报,2001,46(3):257-263.
[343]DENG Yongjun,WANG Wei,QIAN Cheng-chun,et al.Application of EMD and process of boundary in Hibert transform Chinese Science Bulletin,2001,46(3):257-263.
[344]王慧敏.对粮食稳定增长模型的设定及分析[J].农业机械化与电气化,2004,1:52-55.
[345]吕爱清,杜国平,卞新民,等.中国粮食产量虚拟变量模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2005,33(11):2136-2137,2155.
[346]喻翠玲,冯中朝,李应生.我国大豆产出增长的要素贡献率测度与分析[J].中国农村经济,2005,9:67-70.
[347]武兰芳,陈阜,欧阳竹等.黄淮海平原麦玉两熟区粮食产量与化肥投入关系的研究[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2003,9(3):257-263.
[348]韩文清.切实提高化肥利用率实现农业可持续发展[J].山东农业,2001.
[349]王景宏,秦光蔚.沿海地区施肥结构演变及其对大麦产量的影响[J].大麦科学,2000,4:34-35
[350]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[351]邓聚龙.农业系统灰色理论与方法[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1988.
[2]张晋科.中国耕地的粮食生产能力研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2007.et al
[3]FAO.The state of food insecurity in the world 2003.http://www.fao.org.
[4]FAO.The state of food insecurity in the world 2002.http://www.fao.org.
[5]丁声俊,朱立志.世界粮食安全形势及其保障对策[J].农业经济问题,2002,(6):46-49.
[6]陈劲松,余贤.2003年中国农村经济形势分析与2004年展望[J].中国农村经济,2004,(2):4-11.
[7]Brown L.R.Who will feed China?.Wake-up call for a small planet[M].Worldwatch Institute,New York,1995.
[8]Brown,Brain Halweil.China's water shortage could shake world food security[J].World Watch,1998,11(4):10-18.
[9]Paarlberg Robert L.Feeding China:a confident view[J].Food Policy,1997,22(3):269-279.
[10]World Bank.China:long-term food security report.East Asia and Pacific Regional Office,China and Mongolia Department,Ruraland Social Development Operations Division,Washington,D.C.,1997.
[11]黄季煜.中国的食物安全问题[J].中国农村经济,2004,(10):4-10.
[12]陈百明.论“谁来养活中国”[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3):210-215.
[13]彭珂珊.走向21世纪5000亿公斤粮食目标与耕地资源保护之探讨[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,21(4):75-81.
[14]刘彦随,吴传钧.中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全[J].自然资源报,2002,17(3):270-275.
[15]刘振伟.我国粮食安全的几个问题[J].农业经济问题,2004,(12):8-13.
[16]石少龙.2003年粮食安全研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2004,(9):4-10.
[17]毕于运,郑振源.建国以来中国实有耕地面积增减变化分析[J].资源科学,2000,22(2):8-12
[18]封志明,李香莲.耕地与粮食安全战略:藏粮于土,提高中国土地资源的综合生产能力[J].地理学与国土研究,2000,16(3):1-5.
[19]姜长云.关于我国粮食安全的若干思考[J].农业经济问题,2005,(2):44-48.
[20]蔡运龙.中国经济高速发展中的耕地问题[J].资源科学,2000,22(3):24-28.
[21]潘明才.新时期耕地保护与可持续发展[J].北京:中国大地出版社,2004.
[22]张士功.中国耕地资源安全[D].北京:中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,2005
[23]张士功.中国耕地资源的基本态势及其近年来数量变化研究[J].中国农学通报,2005,21(6):374-378.
[24]熊华,谭丽燕,王争艳.南宁市粮食生产影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(6):46-50.
[25]石玉林,康庆禹,赵存兴等.中国宜农荒地资源[M].北京:北京科学技术出版社,1985.
[26]李元.生存与发展.北京:中国大地出版社,1997.
[27]陈百明.中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[28]张凤荣.中国土地资源及其可持续利用.北京:中国农业大学出版社,2000.
[29]张凤荣.耕地总量动态平衡应注意的几个问题[J].中国土地,1998,(11):28-30
[30]张迪,张凤荣,安萍莉等.中国现阶段后备耕地资源经济供给能力分析.资源科学,2004,26(5):46-52.
[31]尹成杰.关于提高粮食综合生产能力的思考[J].农业经济问题,2005,(1):5-10
[32]鲁靖,许成安.构建中国的粮食安全保障体系[J].农业经济问题,2004,(8):29-79.
[33]彭留英,我国中部地区农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.2007.
[34]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[35]刘爱智.沧州市耕地生产力变化分析及其对策研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(12):2897-2898,2902.
[36]许皞.耕地生产力更新与耕地持续利用研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,1999.
[37]冯耀宗.人工生态系统稳定性概念及其指标[J].生态学杂志,2002,21(5):58-60.
[38]马克明,孔红梅,关文彬等.生态系统健康评价:方法与方向[J].生态学报,2001,21(12):2106-2116.
[39]蔡晓明.生态系统生态学.北京:科学出版社,2000.
[40]李茂,张洪业.中国耕地和粮食生产力变化的省际差异研究[J].资源科学,2003,25(3):49-56.
[41]Klingebiel A.A,Montgomery P.H Land Capability Classification.US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD.Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[D].Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China,2001.
[42]Black J.K,Watson D.J.Phontosynthesis and the theory of obtaining high crop yields[J].Field crop absts,1960,13:165-175.
[43]Bonner J.The upper limit of crop yields[J].Science,1962,137:11-15.
[44]Loomis R.S.,Williams W.A.Maximum crop productivity:an estimate[J].Crop science,1963,(3).
[45]竺可桢.论我国气候的几个特点及其与粮食作物生产的关系[J].地理学报,1964,30(1):1-13.
[46]田国良.呼伦贝尔草原的太阳光辐射能和光合潜力[J].地理学报,1980,35(1):76-82.
[47]梁荣欣.水稻的气候土壤生产潜力估算.自然资源[J],1984,(2):68-73.
[48]候光良,蒋世逵.西藏高原1～12月平均温度的估算问题[J].地理学报,1980,35(3):265-269.
[49]李继由.西藏地区光合生产力估算[J].资源科学,1980,(1):58-62.
[50]于沪宁,赵丰收.光热资源和农作物的光热生产潜力[J].气象学报,1982,40(3):327-333.
[51]方光迪.三江地区光、热资源与作物生产潜力[J].气象学报,1985,43(3):321-331.
[52]赵名茶.作物可利用的光能-对光合潜力公式的检验和探讨[M].地理集刊,北京:科学出版社, 1985,(17):35-48.
[53]王菱,陈沈斌,候光良.利用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸发的高度订正方法[J].气象学报,1988,46(3):381-383..
[54]Gunther Fischer,Harrij van Velthuizen,Mahendra Shah,et al.Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century:Methodology and Results[J].2002.
[55]胡新艳,刘一明,牛宝俊.东南沿海地区耕地资源承载力研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2001,(1):21-24.
[56]白莉萍,陈阜.国内外作物生产潜力研究现状与评价[J].作物杂志,2002,(1):7-9.
[57]林毅夫,沈高明.中国农业科研优先序[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1996.
[58]Susan E.Leetmaa,Carlos Amade,and David Kelch.A Comparison of U.S.and EU Agricultural Productivity With Implications for EU Enlargement[J].Economic Research Service,USDA,33-48.
[59]B.A.M.Bouman.A conceptual framework for the improvement of crop water productivity at different spatial scales[J].Agricultural Systems 2007,93:43-60.
[60]Raj Gupta,Ashok Seth review of resource conserving technologies for sustainable management of the rice-wheat cropping systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains(IGP)[J].Crop Protection 2007,26:436-447.
[61]Gyanendra Singh.Estimation of a Mechanisation Index and Its Impact on Production and Economic Factors-a Case Study in India[J].Biosystems Engineering,2006,93(1):99-106.
[62]David B.Lobell,J.Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio,Gregory P.Asner,Pamela A.Matson b,Rosamond L.Naylor d,Walter P.FalconAnalysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico[J].Field Crops Research 2005,94:250-256.
[63]Heikki Lehtonen,llona Ba"rlund,Sirkka Tattari,Mikael Hilden.Combining dynamic economic analysis and environmental impact modelling Addressing uncertainty and complexity of agricultural development[J].Environmental Modelling & Software 2007,22:710-718.
[64]Reimund P.Roetter,Marrit van den Berg,Alice G.Laborte.Combming farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource Management in East and South-east Asia[J].Environmental Modelling & Software 2007,22:149-157.
[65]Gabriella Mathe-Gaspar,Nandor Fodor,Klara Pokovai.Crop modelling as a tool to separate the influence of the soil and weather on crop yields[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 2005,30:165-169.
[66]S.Landau,R.A.C.Mitchell,V.Barnett,etal.A parsimonious,multiple-regression model of wheat yield response to environment[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2000,101:151-166.
[67]Daniel F.Calderini),Gustavo A.Slafer.Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century[J].Field Crops Research.57_1998:335-347.
[68]David B.Lobell,Gregory RAsner.Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S.Agricultural Yields[J].Science,2003,299,1032.
[69]J.E.Olesen,RK.Bocher,T.Jensen.Comparison of scales of climate and soil data for aggregating simulated yields of winter wheat in Denmark[J]Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2000,82: 213-228.
[70]David B. Lobell, Gregory P. Asner.Cropland distributions from temporal unmixing of MODIS data[J].Remote Sensing of Environment, 2004, 93: 412—422.
[71]G.H.J. de Koninga, A. Veldkamp, L.O. Fresco.Land use in Ecuador: a statistical analysis at different aggregation levels[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 1998, 70: 231—247.
[72]T. Wassenaarl, P. Lagacheriel, J. P. Legrosl, et al. Modelling wheat yield responses to soil and climate variability at the regional scale[J].CLIMATE RESEARCH Clim Res 1999, (11): 209-220.
[73]A. Veldkamp, L.O.Fresco.reconstrcting Land Use Drivers and their spatial Scale Dependence for Costa Rica, agriculture systems , 1997, 55(1): 19—43.
[74]David B. Lobell, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterioc, Gregory P. Asner. Relative importance of soil and climate variability fornitrogen management in irrigated wheat[J]. Field Crops Research. 2004, 87: 155-165.
[75]Robert A. Brown, Norman J. Rosenberg. Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change ina range of climatic factors and CO, concentrations a simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 83: 171—203.
[76]Sharma B R, Minhas P S. Strategies for managing saline/alkali waters for sustainable agriculture production in South Asia. Agricultural Water Management, 2005, 78: 136—151.
[77]Radin J. W. et al.Yield enhancement in cotton by frequent irrigations during fruiting. Agronomy Journa, 2002, 84(4): 551—557.
[78]John Pender, Ephraim Nkonya, Pamela Jagger, Dick Sserunkuuma and Henry Ssali. Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda[J].Agricultural Economics, 2004, 31 (2-3): 181-195.
[79]Tony T. Finance. Structural and Productivity Change in US agricultural, 1950—1990[J]. Agricultural Economics, 1998, 24(2): 127—147.
[80]Jin, S. et al. The creation and spread of technology and total factor productivity in China's agriculture [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2002, 84(4): 916—939.
[81]Kelly Brumbelow, Aris Georgakakos.Determining crop-water production functions using yieldirrigation gradient algorithms [J]. Agricultural water management 2007, 87: 151 — 161.
[82]Jean-Paul Lhomme and Thierry Winkel.Diversity-Stability Relationships in Community [J]. Theoretical Population Biology 2002, 62: 271 —279.
[83]B.V. Scian, M.E. Bouza.Environmental variables related to wheat yields in the semiarid pampa region of Argentina[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2005, 61: 669—679.
[84]Jeronimo Aznar, Francisco Guijarro.Estimating regression parameters with imprecise input data in an appraisal context[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 176 (2007) 1896—1907.
[85]K. Sieling, C. Stahl, C. Winkelmann, O. Christen.Growth and yield of winter wheat in the first 3 years of a monoculture under varying N fertilization in NW Germany[J]. Europ. J. Agronomy, 2005, 22: 71-84.
[86]S. Sarkar, S.R. Singh.Interactive effect of tillage depth and mulch on soil temperature, productivity and water use pattern of rainfed barley (Hordium vulgare L.)[J]. Soil & Tillage Research, 2007, 92: 79-86.
[87]M.B. Galana, D. Peschard, H. Boizard.ISO 14001 at the farm level Analysis of five methods for evaluating the environmental impact of agricultural practices[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2007, 82: 341-352.
[88]V.E Bail, E-C Bureau, J-P Butault, et al.Levels of Farm Sector P(?)oductivity An International Comparison[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2001, (15): 5—29.
[89]M.C. Manna, A. Swarup, R.H. Wanjari, et al.Long-term effect of fertilizer and manure application on soil organic carbon storage, soil quality and yield sustainability under sub-humid and semi-arid tropical India[J]. Field Crops Research, 2005, 93: 264—280.
[90]Russell S. Crosbie, Justin D. Hughes, John Friend, Basil J. Baldwin.Monitoring the hydrological impact of land use change in a small agricultural catchment affected by dryland salinity in central NSW, Australia[J]. agricultural water management, 2007, 88: 43—53.
[91]M.S. Castellazzi, J.N. Perry, N. Colbach, H. Monod ,K. Adamczyk, V.Viaud.K.F. Conrad.New measures and tests of temporal and spatial pattern of crops in agricultural landscapes [J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 2007, 118: 339—349.
[92]Kuiper, H. et al. Assessment of the food safety issues related to genetically modified foods. Plant [J].2001, (27): 503-528.
[93] K.P. Overmars, G.H.J. de Koning, A. Veldkamp .Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models[J]. Ecological Modelling. 2003, 164: 257-270.
[94]Christien H. Ettema and David A.Wardle. Spatial soil ecology[J].Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2002, 17 (4): 177-183.
[95]Martha M Bakker, Gerard Govers, Mark D.A. Rounsevell.The crop productivity - erosion relationship: an analysis based on experimental work[J].Catena. 2004, 57: 55—76.
[96] J.W. Jones , G Hoogenboom , C.H. Porter, et al.The DSSAT cropping system model[J]Europ. J. Agronomy. 2003, (18): 235-265.
[97]Sasha Hafner.Trends in maize, rice, and wheat yields for 188 nations overthe past 40 years: a prevalence of linear growth[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2003, 97: 275—283.
[98]David B. Lobell, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio c, Walter P. Falcon.Yield uncertainty at the field scale evaluatedwith multi-year satellite data[J].Agricultural Systems, 2007, 92: 76—90.
[99]David B. Lobell , J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Gregory P. Asner, et al. Combining Field Surveys, Remote Sensing, and Regression Trees to Understand Yield Variations in an Irrigated Wheat Landscape[J].American Society of Agronomy, 2005, 97: 241—249.
[100]P.D.jamieson, M.A.Semenov, I.R.Brooking, GS.Francis.Sirius: a mechanistic model of wheat response to environmental variation[J].European Journal of Agronomy, 1998, (8): 161 — 179.
[101]William E.Easterling, Albert Weiss, Cynthia J.Hays, et al.Spatial scales of climate information for simulating wheat and maize productivity: the case of the US Great Plains[J].agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1998, 90: 51—63.
[102]Alma Delia Baez-Gonzalez,Pei-yu Chen,Mario Tiscareno-Lopez,et al.Using Satellite and Field Data with Crop Growth Modeling to Monitor and Estimate Corn Yield in Mexico[J].Crop Sci,2002,42:1943-1949.
[103]Jones H.G,Kiniry J.R.CERS-Maize:a Simulation model of maize growth and Development[J].Texas A & M University Press,College Station,1986.
[104]Van Diepen,Van Kenlen C.A..Penning de Vries.Simulated variability of wheat and rice yields in current weather conditions and in future weather when ambient CO2 haddoubled.Simulation reports CABO-TT 14,Wageningen:CABO-DLO,WAU-TPE.1987.
[105]王昕,许桂红.辽宁农业综合生产能力的结构分析及前景预测[J].辽宁农业科学,1999,(5):38-41.
[106]彭留英,我国中部地区农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.2007
[107]梁勇.广西农业综合生产能力研究[J].广西大学梧州分校学报,2001,11(1):10-12.
[108]杨国涛等.利用C-D函数对宁夏农业综合生产能力影响因素进行实证分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2001,17(2):103-105.
[109]黄季焜,李宁辉.中国农业政策分析与预测模型——CAPSiM[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2):30-41.
[110]吴玉鸣.农业综合生产能力影响因素的灰色关联与协调分析[J].农村经济,2004,(12):19-21.
[111]许建文.论建国以来中国共产党的农业生产力发展观[J].山西财经大学学报,2004,26(5):47-53.
[112]尹希果,陈刚,付翔.我国农业综合生产力影响因素的实证分析[J].统计观察,2005,203(12):73-75.
[113]邓大才.农业大省培育粮食综合生产能力的主要途径[J].粮食问题研究,2005,(1):25-28.
[114]周波,翁贞林,朱述斌.农业综合生产能力的典型相关分析——以江西省为例[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(1):139-143.
[115]夏园,章辉.我国财政支农对农业综合生产能力影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2006,25(5):104-108.
[116]吕向东,王济民,吕新业.我国农业综合生产能力的指标体系及其评价[J].农业经济问题,2005,(增刊):27-33.
[117]陈圣飞.地区间农业生产率的差异及成因分析[J].经济问题,2001,3:37-39.
[118]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法和案例分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003,64-67.
[119]梁俊份.农业技术进步贡献研究综述[J].安徽农学通报,2005,4:17-18,21.
[120]魏权龄.评价相对有效性DEA方法[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1988,7-9.
[121]陈卫平.中国农业生产率增长,技术进步与效率变化(1990～2003年)[J].中国农村经济,2006,1:18-23.
[122]江激宇,李静,孟令杰.中国农业生产率的增长趋势:1978～2002[J].南京农业大学学报,2005,28(3):113-118.
[123]康梅.投资增长模式下经济增长因素分解与经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,2:153-160.
[124]蒋和平,苏基才.我国农业科技进步贡献率的测定分析[J].农业技术经济,2001,5:12-17.
[125]赵洪斌.改革开放以来中国农业技术进步率演进的研究[J].财经研究,2002,2:24-28.
[126]张海道,何有世.江苏省技术进步率贡献率的测算[J].统计观察,2006,2:83-85.
[127]施正剑,吕勇彬.湖北省农业技术进步的地区差异分析[J].农村经济.2602,5:36-38.
[128]石荣丽,黄鹏.云南农业技术进步贡献率测算[J].农业现代化研究,2002,1:76-79.
[129]朱团钦.湖北省科技进步对经济增长的贡献率测算[J].统计观测,2005,1:83-85.
[130]陶江,杨德刚.50年来新疆粮食增产因素的主成分分析[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1):95-99..
[131]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-63.
[132]张献好.山区粮食增长的制约因素与对策[J].作物研究,2002,16(1):41-42.
[133]韩建民.论我国耕地资源的高效利用与粮食增长[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(1):29-33.
[134]陈卫平,郑风田.中国的粮食生产力革命——1953～2003年中国主要粮食作物全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(4):56-61.
[135]陈卫平,我国玉米全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济问题,2006,(2):40-42.
[136]樊胜根.中国农业生产与生产率的增长:新的测算方法及结论[J].农业技术经济,1998,(4):46-50.
[137]崔凯.科技在农业生产函数中的演替分析[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(6):997-999.
[138]江云,马友华,陈伟等.作物水分利用率的影响因素及其提高途径探讨[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(9):269-273.
[139]郑家国,张鸿,姜心禄等.多熟制条件下节水抗旱农作模式的水分利用率研究[J].西南农业学报,2006,19(6):1039-1043.
[140]艾合买提·那由甫,田长彦,卡地尔托合提.渭干河灌区粮食作物低产变高产示范研究报告[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):81-85.
[141]刘小鹏,陈再高,何樊伍.提高科技对粮食增产效果及对粮食贡献率的建议[J].安徽农学通报,2005,11(2):15-16,29.
[142]汪建国,汪琦.应用粳米淋饭酒母%玉米淀粉喂浆开发清爽型黄酒的工艺[J].中国酿造,2006(7):50-51.
[143]张建平.山西省粮食产量及粮食作物结构变化趋势的相关分析[J].中国农学通报,22(12):516-520.
[144]杨志龙,郑颖.试论西部贫困地区农村产业结构调整中的粮食生产问题[J].兰州商学院学报,23(4):23-27.
[145]王学真,石雪莲,高峰.山东省粮食生产波动影响因素分析[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006,22(6):18-22.
[146]马红波,褚庆全.我国粮食生产波动及其影响因素分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(27):8735-8737.
[147]Hans-Peter.Piepho A Simplified Procedure for Comparing the Stability of Cropping Systems.A Simplified Procedure for Comparing the Stability of Cropping Systems[J].Biometrics,1996,52(1):315-320.
[148]Roger G.Fuentes,Charles M.Taliaferro.Biomass Yield Stability of Switchgrass Cultivars[J].Trends in new crops and new uses,2002,(3):276-282.
[149]D.Blaise,C.D.Ravindran,and J.V.Singh.Trend and Stability Analysis to Interpret Results of Long-Term.Effects of Application of Fertilizers and Manure to Cotton Grown on Rainfed Vertisols[J].J.Agronomy & Crop Science 192,2006,(2):319-330.
[150]Seung-Ryong Yang,Won W.Koo,William W.Wilson.Heteroskedasticity in Crop Yield Models[J].Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,17(1):103-109.
[151]N.van Duivenbooden,F.R.Veeneklaas.Impact of inorganic fertilizer availability on land use and agricultural production in the Fifth Region of Mali[J]Fertilizer Research 1993,35:193-204.
[152]R.P.Roettera,C.T.Hoanhb,A.G.Laborteb,earl.Integration of Systems Network(SysNet)tools for regional land use scenario analysis in Asia[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2005,20:291-307
[153]D.T.Vere.Investigating improved pasture productivity chang on the New South Wales tablelands[J].Agricultural Economics 1998,18:63-74
[154]Peter B.R.Hazell.Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S.Cereal Production[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1984,66(3):302-311.
[155]Wilfred Candler,Jose Fortuny-Amat,Bruce McCarl.The Potential Role of Multilevel Programming in Agricultural Economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1981,63(3):521-531.
[156]喻翠玲,冯中朝.我国粮食生产的波动性及其影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2006,27(1):7-10.
[157]肖海峰,王姣.我国粮食综合生产能力影响因素分析[J].农业技术经济,2004,(6):45-49.
[158]鲁靖.中国粮食市场运行与政府宏观调控政策耦合研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2002.
[159]沈琼,潘向东.我国粮食生产波动周期的经济分析[J].华北水利水电学院学报(社科版),2004,(8):10-11.
[160]刘明亮,陈百明.我国近期粮食生产的波动性及其与农业自然灾害发生状况的相关分析[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):78-85.
[161]谈东华,周波,朱述斌.江西省粮食生产周期性波动的实证分析[J].商业研究,2007,(366):141-145.
[163]曾玉平.论我国粮食生产的波动与对策[J].中国粮食经济,1998,(4):13-17.
[164]刘柏文,黄新平.湖北主要农产品长期供求趋势分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),1999,(1):52-54.
[165]王晓红.山东省粮食生产波动及其周期特征的实证分析[J].山东经济,2001,7:64-66.
[166]胡岳岷,任春良.中国粮食生产波动周期再分析[J].东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2007,(5):107-111.
[167]张志强,黄漫红.中国粮食生产景气指数系统的合成指数分析[J].北京农学院学报,2002,(7): 30-34.
[168]Zoltan Berzsenyi,Bela Gyo3rffy,DangQuoc Lap.Effect of crop rotation and fertilisation on maize and wheat yields and yield stability in a long-term experiment[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2000,13:225-244.
[169]Santiago R.Veron,Jose M.Paruelo,Gustavo A.Slafer.Interannual variability of wheat yield in the Argentine Pampas during the 20th century[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2004,103:177-190.
[170]H-P Piepho.Methods for Comparing the Yield Stability of Cropping Systems——A Review[J].J.Agronomy & Crop Science,1998,180:193-213.
[171]Qunying Luo,William Bellotti,Martin Williams,et al.Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2005,132:273-285.
[172]Shekhar Kumar Sinha,Jayesh Talati.Productivity impacts of the system of rice intensification(SRI)A case study in West Bengal,India[J].agricultural water management,2007,87:55-60.
[173]V.K.Arora,P.R.Gajri,H.S.Uppal.Puddling,irrigation,and transplanting-time effects on productivity of rice-wheat system on a sandy loam soil of Punjab,India[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,85:212-220.
[174]J.Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio,David B.Lobell.Remote sensing assessment of regional yield losses due to sub-optimal planting dates and fallow period weed management[J].Field Crops Research,2007,101:80-87.
[175]Bram Govaerts,Ken D.Sayre,JozefDeckers.Stable high yields with zero tillage and permanent bed planting[J].Field Crops Research,2005,94:33-42.
[176]A.A.Leilah,S.A Al-Khateeb.Statistical analysis of wheat yield under drought conditions[J].Journal ofArid Environments,2005,61:483-496.
[177]T.A.Basamba,E.Barrios,E.Ame'zquita,et al.Tillage effects on maize yield in a Colombian savanna oxisol Soil organic matter and P fractions[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,91:131-142.
[178]Martha M.Bakker,Gerard Govers,Frank Ewert,et al.Variability in regional wheat yields as a function of climate,soil and economic variables Assessing the risk of confounding[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2005,110:195-209.
[179]M.Reyniers,K.Maertens,E.Vrindts,et al.Yield variability related to landscape properties of a loamy soil in central Belgium[J].Soil & Tillage Research,2006,88:262-273.
[180]沈善敏,宇万太,陈欣.施肥进步在粮食增产中的贡献及其地理分异[J].应用生态学报,1998,9(4):386-390.
[181]王春娟.凤翔县粮食产量波动的关联分析[J].陕西农业科学,2000,(7):24-27.
[182]张志强.中国粮食生产系统影响因素的主成分分析[J].北京农学院学报,2001,16(1):65-68.
[183]朱再清,陈方源.湖北省粮食总产波动状况及其原因分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(2):13-16.
[184]唐鸿铃.重庆粮食增产途径分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(西部论坛),2004,(6):62-64.
[185]吴玉鸣,李建霞.通径分析在我国粮食生产相关研究中的应用[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学 版),2003,21(3):95-99.
[186]莱斯特·布朗.谁来养活中国[J].中国农村经济,1995,(3):7-11
[187]孙鹤,施锡锉.制度变迁与粮食生产的长波[J].中国农村观察,2000,(1):37-46.
[188]贡凤涛,康长进.江苏粮食生产波动特征分析[J].农业信息探索,1999,(3):14-18
[189]孙文博,张树淼.1996年粮价改革评估及未来改革设想[J].中国物价,1996,(8):9-11.
[190]丁声俊.中国粮食流通改革论[J].农业经济问题,1998,(6):3-8.
[191]蒋乃华,张雪梅.中国粮食生产稳定与波动成因的经济分析[J].农业技术经济,1998,(6):40-44.
[192]尹成杰.关于我国粮食生产波动的思考及建议[J].农业经济问题,2003,(10):4-10.
[193]焦长丰,白人朴.我国选择性农业保护政策的研究[J].中国农业大学学报,1997,2(2):7-12.
[194]胡小平.宏观政策是影响中国粮食生产的决定性因素[J].经济研究参考,2002,(15):30-31.
[195]徐翔,孙文华.WTO背景下中国粮食生产波动分析田[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(2):113-116.
[196]吴志华,徐子恺,施国庆.南水北调对稳定粮食产量的贡献研究[J].中国水利,2003,(6):38-41.
[197]张志强,邓蓉,王中华.中国粮食生产波动原因分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2003,(3):11-12.
[198]Enrique R.Arzac.An Econometric Evaluation of Stabilization Policies for the U.S.Grain Market[J].Western Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,4(1):.
[199]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1998,(5):14-20.
[200]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005,(3):24-28.
[201]肖国安,王文涛.粮食产量主要影响因素实证分析及政策选择[J].河南科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,10(2):90-93.
[202]Kueh,Y.Y.Weather cycles and agricultural instability in China[J].Agricultural Economics,1986,37(1):101-104.
[203]Downing,T.E.Climate change and vulnerable food security and country studies in Zimbabwe Chile.Environment Change Unit,Kenya,Senegal University of Oxford.1992.
[204]Roger W.Buckland.Implications of Climatic Variability for Food Security in the Southern African Development Community(SADC)[J].Internet Journal for African Studies,1997,2:24-28.
[205]Stanley C.Stevens.Evidence for a weather persistence effect on corn,wheat and soybean growing season price dynamics,Futures Markets,2(1997):376-383.
[206]Chi-Chung Chen,Ching-Cheng Chang.Climate Change and CropYield Distribution:Some New Evidence from Panel Data Models.IEAS Working Paper No.04—A001 January,2004
[207]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境 2003,17(2):60-64.
[208]孙芳,杨修.农业气候变化脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):170-173.
[209]姜爱林、包纪祥、刘赢洲.耕地概念的界定与耕地质量评价的新方法探讨[J].中国地质矿产经济,1999(5):20-25.
[210]朱德举.中国耕地保护[M].北京:中国大地出版社,1997.
[211]夏早发,关于耕地概念的研究[J].中国土地科学,1999,11(4):13-75.
[212]邹玉川,建立耕地资源安全体系,小城镇建设,2001(6):10-11.
[213]马克思.资本论[M].人民出版社,1975.
[214]高旺盛.北方农牧交错带农业系统生产力研究方法分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2002,18(4):179-282.
[215]魁奈.魁奈经济著作选集[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981.
[216]斯大林.斯大林选集[M].北京:人民出版社,1979.
[217]王启荣.生产力二要素论之探讨[J].江汉学报,1962,(7):9-12.
[218]张鱼.对于生产力问题的商榷[J].学习,1950,(7):23-15.
[219]林京耀.关于生产力要素的问题[N].光明日报,1959,12-17.
[220]骆耕漠.关于生产力二要素或三要素问题的研究[J].江汉学报,1962,(3):1-6.
[221]项启源,余少波.试论现代生产力诸要素[M].中国经济问题,1980,(5):7-13.
[222]薛永应.生产力经济学[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,1986.
[223]李斯特.政治经济学的国民体系[M].北京:商务印书馆,1961.
[224]Gordon R.Conway(1987)Gordon R.Conway & Jules N.Pretty.Fertilizer risks in the developing countries[J].Nature,334:207-208.
[225]曾本祥.农业生态经济系统生产力理论初探[J].生态经济,1990,(3):9-12.
[226]韩纯儒.农业系统生产力(ASP)的量化及其现状分析[J].生态学杂志,1993,12(2):21-22
[227]任继周.草地农业生态学[M].农业出版社,1995.
[228]高旺盛,隋鹏,陈源泉.北京市现代集约农业可持续性分析与战略选择[J].中国农业资源与区划,2001,22(6):27-30.
[229]Klingebiel A.A,Montgomery P.H Land Capability Classification.US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[J].Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China,2001.
[230]金野隆光(林齐民译).土壤配肥原理[M].福建科技出版社,1983.
[231]梁朝仪.土地评价[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992.
[232]林培.土地资源学[M].中国农业大学出版社,1996.
[233]黎孟波.土壤肥力研究进展[M].中国科技出版社,1991.
[234]王建武.县域农业土地利用系统定量化分析方法研究与实践[C].中国农业大学博士学位论文,1998.
[235]Driessen,P.M.,Land use system analysis[M].Wageningen Agri.Univ.
[236]王学真,石雪莲,高峰.山东省粮食生产波动影响因素分析[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版)[J]2006,22(6):18-22.
[237]郝金良,王冬,薛新伟.天气政策因素对我国粮食增产作用的定量分析及政策模拟[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,1998,14(1):36-41.
[238]崔步礼,常学礼,陈雅琳等.粮食产量变化及影响因素分析_以山东省东营市为例[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(11):2549-2550,2552.
[239]唐华仓.生产要素对粮食产量的贡献系数分析[J].生产力研究,2007,(12):20-21.
[240]古玉丽,乔欢欢.我国粮食产量与化肥使用量之间的实证分析[J].农村经济与科技,2007,(10):12-13.
[241]郭淑敏,马帅,陈印军.我国粮食主产区粮食生产影响因素研究[J].农业现代化研究,2007,28(1):83-87.
[242]罗小锋.自然灾害对湖北粮食产量的影响分析[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):109-113.
[243]王艳丽,刘会平,潘安定等.山西省水旱灾害及其对粮食生产的影响[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2004,3(5):443-447.
[244]张星.福建粮食生产对气象灾害的敏感性研究[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):232-234.
[245]武永峰,李茂松,蒋卫国.不同经济地带旱灾灾情变化及其与粮食单产波动的关系[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):205-210.
[246]王桂荣,李志宏,王慧军等.河北省农业自然灾害发生的特点、成因及对策研究[J].河北林果研究,2007,22(3):274-27.
[247]叶正伟.江苏旱涝灾害对农业经济的影响及承灾系统分析[J].江苏农业科学,2006,(4):5-7.
[248]任志祥.中国经济波动与世界经济周期的协动性研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2004.
[249]史建明.河北省经济波动周期性及成因的实证研究[D].天津:河北工业大学,2007
[250]孙武,侯玉,张勃.生态脆弱带波动性、人口压力、脆弱度之间的关系[J].生态学报,2000,20(3):369-373.
[251]朱再清.1978年以来湖北省粮食生产波动状况分析[J].湖北农业科学,2002,(5):13-16.
[252]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].干旱区自然与环境,2003,17(2):60-64.
[253]孙武、吴薇.内蒙古高原东南部降水驱动的农业系统波动性分析[J].植物生态学报,26(1):23-28.
[254]韩博平.生态系统稳定性:概念及其表征.华南师范大学学报,1994,(2):37-45.
[255]MacArthur R.Fluctuations of animal populations,and a measure of community stability.Ecology,1955,36:533-536.
[256]Volker Grimm,Christian Wissel.Babel,or the ecological stability discussions:an inventory and analysis of terminology and a guide for avoiding confusion.Oecologia,1997,109:323-334.
[257]Pimm S L.The complexity and stability of ecosystem.Nature,2000,403:843-845.
[258]孙儒泳.动物生态学原理(第2版)[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1992.
[259]高亮之.农业系统学基础.南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1993.
[260]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[M].南京农业大学,1998.
[261]Enjiang Cheng.Household Heads,Non-economic Factors and Grain Production in China in The 1990s.Working Paper Chinese E-conomies Research Centre School of Economics in The University of Adelaide Australia,1998.
[262]Yang Hong.Sources of Productivity Disparities in Regional Grain Production in China.Working Paper of Chinese Economy Research Unit in the University of Adelaide Australia 1996.
[263]林毅夫.制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1999.
[264]林毅夫.再论制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].北京大学出版社,2000.
[265]石森昌、林秀梅.中国粮食生产模型与投入要素效益分析[M].吉林农业大学学报,2003.
[266]黄季琨、王巧军、陈庆根.农业生产资源的合理配置研究:水稻生产的投入产出分析,中国水稻科学[J].1995,(7).
[267]孔祥智,庞晓鹏,张云华.北方地区小麦生产的投入要素及影响因素实证分析[J].中国农村观察 2004.(4):2-8.
[268]Food and Agriculture Organization of the Unite Nations(FAO).Foodcrops and Shortages[Z].2004.
[269]胡冰川,吴强,周曙东 粮食生产的投入产出影响因素分析-基于江苏省粮食生产的实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(1):71-75.
[270]叶琪.农业劳动力转移、粮食安全与农民长期增收机制[J].安徽农学通报,2005,11(5):4-5.
[271]刘克春.粮食生产波动影响因素的实证分析——以江西省为例[J].特区经济,2007,12:188-189.
[272]张永霞.中国农业生产率测算及实证研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2006.
[273]林燕,于冷.中国粮食产量波动分析[J].吉林农业大学学报,2006,28(3):346-350.
[274]秦宛顺,靳云汇,王明舰.经济周期波动的谱分析方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1996,(11):32-37.
[275]董文泉,高文泉,姜诗章,等.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社,1998.
[276]陈磊,张屹山.我国转轨时期经济周期波动的谱分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2001,(1):18-21.
[277]程小慷,杜文.中国经济增长的波动分析[J].西南交通大学学报,2002,37(3):309-313.
[278]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[J].气象出版社.1999.
[279]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et ai.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary series analysis.Proc R Soc Lond A,1998,454:899-995.
[280]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R.A new view of nonlinear water waves:the Hilberts spectrum.Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics,1999,31:417-457.
[281]林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):90-96.
[282]熊学军,郭炳火,胡筱敏,等.EMD 方法和 HILBERT 谱分析法的应用与探讨[J].黄渤海海洋.2002,20(2),12-21.
[283]万仕全,封国林.基于EMD方法的观测数据信息提取与预测研究[J].气象学报,2005,8,63(4):516-525.
[284]杨宇,于德介,程军圣,等.经验模态分解(EMD)在滚动轴承故障诊断中的应用[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2003,30(5):25-31.
[285]赵犁丰,张晓亮,宋洁.利用 EMD 方法和小波变化进行信号奇异性检测[J].青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(5):759-763.
[286]胡劲松,杨世锡,周方浩,等.旋转机械振动信号基于EMD的HT和Winger分布时频分析比较[J].汽轮机技术,2003,45(5):308-314.
[287]黄长蓉.Hilbert变换及其应用[J].成都气象学院学报,1999.9.
[288]刘会玉,林振山.等.基于EMD的我国粮食生产波动多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):745-751.
[289]石祥升,林振山.华北地区早-湿转变周期的动力研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):436-442.
[290]刘会玉,张明阳,林振山.建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化的多时机尺度分析[J].资源科学,2004,26(1):107-112.
[291]张明阳,林振山,刘会长.我国西北地区干湿转换时间的研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):45-54.
[292]王梅,曲福田.基于变异率的中国50多年的耕地变化动因分析[J].资源科学,2005,27(2):39-44.
[293]苏金明.MATLAB6.1实用指南[M].电子工业出版社,2002.
[294]朱泽.中国粮食安全状况研究.中国农村经济[J].1997.
[295]张越杰,王军.吉林省粮食产量波动分析[J].农业技术经济,2007,3:74-79.
[296]梅长林,周家良.实用统计方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[297]黄新平,刘柏文.湖北省粮食生产波动分析[J].统计与决策,1999,5:21-23.
[298]李明忠.山西省粮食生产波动分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2001,23(6):27-30.
[299]杜江,刘渝.城市化发展与粮食产量增长的动态分析:1949～2004[J].当代经济科学,2007,29(4):100-107,128.
[300]蒲淳.中国粮食易损性的灰色关联分析[J].资源科学,1999,21(3):77-81.
[301]吴小欢,覃菊莹,吕跃进.区间数判断矩阵的一致性及权重计算[J].模糊系统与数学,2007,21(5):113-119.
[302]魏翠萍,张玉忠,冯向前.区间数判断矩阵的一致性检验及排序方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,(10):132-139.
[303]党进谦,张新和,李靖.水土保持与耕地资源持续利用[J].农业工程学报,2003,19(6):283-286..
[304]许月卿,李秀彬.河北省粮食生产灰色关联动态分析[J].地理研究,2002,21(3):339-346.
[305]李英杰,孙世刚,杨兰伟.粮食安全框架下的河北农民增收对策[J].河北农业科学,2005,9(2):96-99.
[306]李玉平,蔡运龙.河北省耕地压力动态分析与预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(4):1-5.
[307]高志强、刘纪远、庄大方.中国土地资源生态环境质量状况分析,自然资源学报,1999,14(1):93-96.
[308]杨娟.为政之要首在足食—关于粮食问题的再思考,粮食问题研究,2004,(4):10-12.
[309]武兰芳,陈阜,欧阳竹.华北平原粮食生产持续发展面临的困境与对策—以河北藁城粮食生产为例[J].中国农业科技导报,2002,4(6):40-44.
[310]马骥,蔡晓羽.农户降低氮肥施用量的意愿及其影响因素分析—以华北平原为例[J].中国农村 经济,2007,(9):9-16.
[311]马凌.全面建设小康社会与提升河南农业综合竞争力的对策研究[J].集团经济研究,2006,(2):139-141.
[312]郭海洋,梁山,胡建.河北省耕地变化与粮食产量灰色关联分析[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(21):5740-5741,5744.
[313]杨萍果,毛任钊.赵建林,等.区域粮食综合生产能力及粮食安全分析—以河北省石家庄市为例[J].农业工程学报,2006,22(2):279-282.
[314]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[315]林少林.中部欠发达地区农业产业结构调整的战略思考[J].湖湘论坛,2002,(6):93-94.
[316]郭敬振,李辰亮.河北省粮食安全因素分析[J].区域经济,2004,(24):22-23.
[317]郭造强.河北省粮食生产能力的思考[J].中国农业资源与区划,2000,21(3):34-36.
[318]蒋满元.农民收入增长影响因素的因子分析及其对策探讨—以河北省为例[J].江西农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,5(3):38-41.
[319]陈京香.推进农业增长方式转变加快建设现代农业步伐[J].中国农业信息,2007,(7):16-17.
[320]吴凯,袁璋,许越先.河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):499-506.
[321]林毅夫.农民增收减负和确保粮食安全的六大建议[J].21世纪经济报道,2003,12:16-17.
[322]林善浪,张国.中国农业发展问题报告:问题、现状、挑战、对策[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2003.
[323]农业部.2004年中国农业发展报告[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2004.
[324]魏朗.财政支农支出对我国农业经济增长影响的研究——对1999～2003年农业生产贡献率的实证分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2007,(9):11-22.
[325]魏朗.财政支农支出对西部农业经济增长的贡献[J].财经科学,2006,(4):111-118.
[326]赵石磊.财政支农支出与农民纯收入关系研究[J].兰州商学院学报,2007,23(2):17-22.
[327]李剑,成同杰,曾祥静,等.河北省财政支农生产性支出与非生产性支出的对比分析[J].河北农业科学,2006,10(1):69-72.
[328]舒敏,傅新红.我国财政支农支出绩效分析与对策[J].四川农业大学学报,2007,25(2):145-149.
[329]李放,朱靖娟.试论我国财政支农支出口径的调整[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007.7(3):18-26.
[330]刘丽英,董宝生.呈贡县化肥施用现状、存在问题及对策研究[J].云南农业科技,2007,(4):8-10.
[331]徐浪,贾静.化肥施用量对粮食产量的贡献率分析[J].优质粮油,2003,(1):10-13.
[332]曾希柏,陈同斌,胡清秀,等.中国粮食生产潜力和化肥增产效率的区域分异[J].地理学报,2002,57(5):539-546.
[333]马骥.农户粮食作物化肥施用量及其影响因素分析——以华北平原为例[J].农业技术经济,2006,(6):36-42.
[334]管卫华.中国经济增长波动的多尺度分析及其预测[D].南京:南京师范大学,2005.
[336]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲.21世纪初中国粮食短缺地区的空间格局和区域差异[J].地理科学,2007,27(4):463-472.
[337]周四军,谢腾.云中国人口增长与粮食生产的协整研究[J].经济数学,2006,23(4):380-385.
[338]杜晓力,王健,李维军.关于实现河北省农业可持续发展的对策研究[J].河北农业大学学报,2001,3(2):66-68.
[339]陈秀端.陕西省粮食安全区域差异及驱动因素分析[J].2007,21(8):116-120.
[340]洪波,陈浩.耕地非农化对粮食生产影响研究——基于耕地质量变化角度的分析[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(4):127-129.
[341]古玉丽,乔欢欢.河北省粮食生产灰色关联动态分析[J].农村经济与科技,2007,(10):12-13.
[342]邓拥军,王伟,钱成春,等.EMD方法及Hilbert变换中边界问题的处理[J].科学通报,2001,46(3):257-263.
[343]DENG Yongjun,WANG Wei,QIAN Cheng-chun,et al.Application of EMD and process of boundary in Hibert transform Chinese Science Bulletin,2001,46(3):257-263.
[344]王慧敏.对粮食稳定增长模型的设定及分析[J].农业机械化与电气化,2004,1:52-55.
[345]吕爱清,杜国平,卞新民,等.中国粮食产量虚拟变量模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2005,33(11):2136-2137,2155.
[346]喻翠玲,冯中朝,李应生.我国大豆产出增长的要素贡献率测度与分析[J].中国农村经济,2005,9:67-70.
[347]武兰芳,陈阜,欧阳竹等.黄淮海平原麦玉两熟区粮食产量与化肥投入关系的研究[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2003,9(3):257-263.
[348]韩文清.切实提高化肥利用率实现农业可持续发展[J].山东农业,2001.
[349]王景宏,秦光蔚.沿海地区施肥结构演变及其对大麦产量的影响[J].大麦科学,2000,4:34-35
[350]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[351]邓聚龙.农业系统灰色理论与方法[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1988.