商务旅游城市发展动力系统及运行机理研究
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摘要
随着全球化和城市化进程的加快，世界范围内商务旅游快速发展，已成为全球旅游业发展的重要趋势。在此背景下，我国商务旅游市场规模得到了迅速增长。近年来，国家从宏观、中观和微观3个不同层面大力支持商务旅游发展。与商务旅游快速发展的实际情况相比，国内外对商务旅游的研究相对滞后。目前，国内外商务旅游研究大多局限于将商务旅游作为城市旅游产品来研究，鲜有学者将商务旅游城市这一整体旅游目的地作为研究对象，以商务旅游城市建设为出发点，综合城市建设各种因素，探索适合商务旅游城市发展的一般模式。基于此，本文尝试运用系统动力学方法(System Dynamics)和TOPSIS多目标决策评价方法对商务旅游城市发展动力系统和运行机理进行深入研究，以期丰富和完善商务旅游城市发展的理论与方法，同时为商务旅游城市发展提供实践指导。
本文选取全国首个“商务旅游示范区——苏州工业园区”为实证研究对象，针对目前商务旅游研究中存在的不足，从商务旅游城市角度着手，构建商务城市发展动力系统结构模型，并对园区商务旅游城市动态发展趋势进行了仿真模拟分析，在此基础上，分析评价仿真期间的商务旅游城市协调性及系统运行状态，探究了系统内部的运行机理，为商务旅游城市可持续发展路径提供了理论依据。主要研究结论表现在以下几方面：
(1)商务旅游城市发展动力系统由人口、经济、商务旅游、环境和科技等5个子系统组成，每个子系统都至少有一个核心变量，各子系统紧密联系，构成了一个“合动力网络”。
(2)不同子系统在整个城市系统中的作用不同，经济子系统是城市发展的基础，商务旅游子系统是城市发展的核心吸引力，其他子系统对商务旅游城市发展具有重要影响。
(3)商务旅游城市动态发展呈现出共性与个性相结合的特点。各子系统在仿真期间均保持了持续增长的发展态势，但不同子系统的增长幅度存在着差异；同一子系统内不同因子的发展趋势也不同。
(4)通过TOPSIS分析得出，苏州工业园区商务旅游城市协调性及系统运行状态最佳的是2020年，最差的是2006年。仿真期间，园区商务旅游城市发展协调性逐年提升，且提升幅度逐渐增大，其中经济因子发展最为活跃，商务环境和旅游因子提升最为迅速，政府管理效能最低，发展速度最慢。
With the acceleration of global integration and urbanization, business tourism hasdeveloped rapidly in the world and become an important trend of global tourismdevelopment. In this context, Chinese business tourism market has been grown rapidly.In recent years, the government advocates the development of domestic businesstourism from macro, metro and micro levels. Compared with the rapid development ofbusiness tourism, the research of domestic and international business travel is limited.At present, domestic and international business travel research mostly consider thebusiness travel as an urban tourism product. However only few scholars draw a suitablegeneral pattern of urban development for business tourism, making urban constructionbusiness travel as a starting point and integrating factors of urban construction. Basedon this, I am attempt to apply system dynamics method (System Dynamics) andTOPSIS multi-objective decision-making and evaluation method to study dynamicalsystem for the development of business tourism urban, which not only to promote urbandevelopment in theories and methods of business travel, but also to supply scientificmethods to guide system business tourism for the development of business tourismurban.
In this paper, from the perspective of business tourism urban, we choose the first"business tourism demonstration area-Suzhou Industrial Park" for empirical researchobject, and build the urban development business SD model, do simulation analysis forbusiness tourist city dynamic development trend. Based on this, in order to explore theinternal system operation mechanism, we analyze similarly evaluation of the businesstourist city during the coordination and system operation state, which provides theorybasis for business tourist city sustainable development. The result of this paper mainlyhas:
(1)Development dynamic system of business tourist city consists o five subsystemsof population, economy, business tourism, environment and technology, eachsubsystem has a core variable at least and connects each other.
(2)The role of different subsystems in the entire city system is different. Economicsubsystem is the basis of the city development, the business tourism subsystem is thecore attraction, and other subsystems have important impact on the development ofbusiness tourism leading city.
(3)The dynamic development of business tourism urban shows the characteristic ofthe combination of commonness and individuality. During simulation, each subsystemmaintain the development trend of sustained growth, however, the growth rates aredifferent in each subsystem; the development trends of each factor is also different inthe same subsystem.
(4) In2020, the coordination and system operating status of the business tourismurban is best and worst in2006, which is for Suzhou Industrial Park. During simulation,the coordination of the business tourism urban is increased year by year, and theenhance rate gradually increased. The economic factors are most active, businessenvironment and the tourism factor grow fast, the efficiency of governmentmanagement is minimum and the rate of development is slow.
本文选取全国首个“商务旅游示范区——苏州工业园区”为实证研究对象，针对目前商务旅游研究中存在的不足，从商务旅游城市角度着手，构建商务城市发展动力系统结构模型，并对园区商务旅游城市动态发展趋势进行了仿真模拟分析，在此基础上，分析评价仿真期间的商务旅游城市协调性及系统运行状态，探究了系统内部的运行机理，为商务旅游城市可持续发展路径提供了理论依据。主要研究结论表现在以下几方面：
(1)商务旅游城市发展动力系统由人口、经济、商务旅游、环境和科技等5个子系统组成，每个子系统都至少有一个核心变量，各子系统紧密联系，构成了一个“合动力网络”。
(2)不同子系统在整个城市系统中的作用不同，经济子系统是城市发展的基础，商务旅游子系统是城市发展的核心吸引力，其他子系统对商务旅游城市发展具有重要影响。
(3)商务旅游城市动态发展呈现出共性与个性相结合的特点。各子系统在仿真期间均保持了持续增长的发展态势，但不同子系统的增长幅度存在着差异；同一子系统内不同因子的发展趋势也不同。
(4)通过TOPSIS分析得出，苏州工业园区商务旅游城市协调性及系统运行状态最佳的是2020年，最差的是2006年。仿真期间，园区商务旅游城市发展协调性逐年提升，且提升幅度逐渐增大，其中经济因子发展最为活跃，商务环境和旅游因子提升最为迅速，政府管理效能最低，发展速度最慢。
With the acceleration of global integration and urbanization, business tourism hasdeveloped rapidly in the world and become an important trend of global tourismdevelopment. In this context, Chinese business tourism market has been grown rapidly.In recent years, the government advocates the development of domestic businesstourism from macro, metro and micro levels. Compared with the rapid development ofbusiness tourism, the research of domestic and international business travel is limited.At present, domestic and international business travel research mostly consider thebusiness travel as an urban tourism product. However only few scholars draw a suitablegeneral pattern of urban development for business tourism, making urban constructionbusiness travel as a starting point and integrating factors of urban construction. Basedon this, I am attempt to apply system dynamics method (System Dynamics) andTOPSIS multi-objective decision-making and evaluation method to study dynamicalsystem for the development of business tourism urban, which not only to promote urbandevelopment in theories and methods of business travel, but also to supply scientificmethods to guide system business tourism for the development of business tourismurban.
In this paper, from the perspective of business tourism urban, we choose the first"business tourism demonstration area-Suzhou Industrial Park" for empirical researchobject, and build the urban development business SD model, do simulation analysis forbusiness tourist city dynamic development trend. Based on this, in order to explore theinternal system operation mechanism, we analyze similarly evaluation of the businesstourist city during the coordination and system operation state, which provides theorybasis for business tourist city sustainable development. The result of this paper mainlyhas:
(1)Development dynamic system of business tourist city consists o five subsystemsof population, economy, business tourism, environment and technology, eachsubsystem has a core variable at least and connects each other.
(2)The role of different subsystems in the entire city system is different. Economicsubsystem is the basis of the city development, the business tourism subsystem is thecore attraction, and other subsystems have important impact on the development ofbusiness tourism leading city.
(3)The dynamic development of business tourism urban shows the characteristic ofthe combination of commonness and individuality. During simulation, each subsystemmaintain the development trend of sustained growth, however, the growth rates aredifferent in each subsystem; the development trends of each factor is also different inthe same subsystem.
(4) In2020, the coordination and system operating status of the business tourismurban is best and worst in2006, which is for Suzhou Industrial Park. During simulation,the coordination of the business tourism urban is increased year by year, and theenhance rate gradually increased. The economic factors are most active, businessenvironment and the tourism factor grow fast, the efficiency of governmentmanagement is minimum and the rate of development is slow.
引文
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