基于优化赋权-未确知测度理论的尾矿干堆体失稳预测
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摘要
针对影响尾矿干堆体稳定性因素的复杂性和不确定性,为了更准确、合理地预测尾矿干堆体的稳定性,基于未确知测度理论,采用将层次分析法和信息熵值法确定各影响指标权重相结合的优化赋权规则,建立了尾矿干堆稳定性预测评价模型。模型涵盖了影响干堆体稳定性的6个定量因素和5个非定量因素,分别构建了各影响因素的未确知测度函数。利用优化赋权准则,分别计算各影响因素的权重值,然后采用置信度判别准则予以评定等级,最后综合分析得出干堆体稳定性评价结果。将该评价模型应用于河北某铁矿4个尾矿干堆体的稳定性评价,验证结果证明了预测结果与实际情况相符。
Owing to complexity and uncertainty in the assessment of dry-tailings stability,the AHP and the entropy of information method are combined to count the weights of indexes for getting more accurate and reasonable results.The uncertainty measurement theory is used to make a synthetic assessment about the stability of dry-tailing.During the process,six quantitative influence factors and five qualitative influence factors are selected and uncertainty measurement functions are obtained based on all of the factors.The standard of optimized weights is used to calculate the weights of factors.On this basis,the stabilities of dry-tailings are estimated and analyzed by using the principles of confidence criterion.This evaluation model is applied to predict the stabilities of four dry-tailings in an iron mine in Hebei,and the prediction results are consistent with the actual situation.
Owing to complexity and uncertainty in the assessment of dry-tailings stability,the AHP and the entropy of information method are combined to count the weights of indexes for getting more accurate and reasonable results.The uncertainty measurement theory is used to make a synthetic assessment about the stability of dry-tailing.During the process,six quantitative influence factors and five qualitative influence factors are selected and uncertainty measurement functions are obtained based on all of the factors.The standard of optimized weights is used to calculate the weights of factors.On this basis,the stabilities of dry-tailings are estimated and analyzed by using the principles of confidence criterion.This evaluation model is applied to predict the stabilities of four dry-tailings in an iron mine in Hebei,and the prediction results are consistent with the actual situation.
引文
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[19]赵国彦,余佩佩,周礼.基于未确知测度理论的岩体可爆性分级[J].爆破,2013,30(4):20-24.ZHAO Guoyan,YU Peipei,ZHOU Li. Classification of rock mass blastability based on unascertained measurement theory[J]. Blasting,2013,30(4):20-24.
[20]王新民,高瑞文,胡威,等.充填管道堵塞风险预测模型[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2013(11):4604-4610.WANG Xinmin,GAO Ruiwen,HU Wei,et al. Risk prediction model of filling pipeline blockage[J]. Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2013(11):4604-4610.
[21]梁典德.尾矿干堆技术的试验和应用研究[J].有色金属工程,2012,2(2):40-45.LIANG Diande. Experiment and application research on the dry tailings stacking technology.[J]. Nonferrous Metal Engineering,2012,2(2):40-45.
[2] DAVIES M P,RICE S. Dry stack filtered tailings[J].Mining Environmental Management,2002,(1):10-13.
[3]梁国海,洪小鹏.尾矿压滤干堆工艺在排山楼金矿的成功应用与改造实践[J].黄金,2003,24(12):47-49.LIANG Guohai, HONG Xiaopeng. The successful application and reform of the technology of pressure filtration and dry heaping of tail in Panshanlou Gold Mine[J]. Gold,2003,24(12):47-49.
[4]迟春霞,沈强.尾矿干堆技术探讨[J].黄金,2002,23(8):47-49.CHI Chunxia,SHEN Qiang. Discussion on the technique of dry-tailing stacking[J]. Gold,2002,23(8):47-49.
[5]曾宪坤,沈楼燕.关于在我国南方多雨地区实施尾矿干堆技术的探讨[J].中国矿业,2011,20(5):90-92.ZENG Xiankun,SHEN Louyan. Discussions on dry-tailing stacking technology in southern rainy area of China[J].China Mining Magazine,2011,20(5):90-92.
[6]葛彩虹.干堆尾矿库坝体稳定性研究与应用[D].石家庄:石家庄铁道大学,2014.GE Caihong. Dry stack tailings dam stability study application[D]. Shijiazhuang:Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,2014.
[7]谢羽佳,谭钦文,李春林,等.干堆尾矿子坝结构参数的稳定性响应规律研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014(1):33-38.XIE Yujia,TAN Qinwen,LI Chunlin,et al. Research on response of stability by structure parameters of sub-dams in dry tailings dams[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014(1):33-38.
[8]姜均文,郝世波,陈清运,等.地下开采条件下干堆尾矿库稳定性分析[J].黄金,2012,33(9):51-55.JIANG Junwen, HAO Shibo, CHEN Qingyun, et al.Stability analysis of dry tailings dam above slopes[J].Gold,2012,33(9):51-55.
[9]宫凤强,李夕兵,董陇军,等.基于未确知测度理论的采空区危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(2):323-330.GONG Fengqiang, LI Xibing, DONG Longjun, et al.Underground goaf risk evaluation based on uncertainty measurement theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(2):323-330.
[10]刘开第,庞彦军,孙光勇,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.LIU Kaidi,PANG Yanjun,SUN Guangyong, et al.Mathematics treatment and application of uncertainty information[M]. Beijing:Science Press,1999.
[11]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(7):1442-1448.GONG Jian,HU Nailian,CUI Xiang,et al. Rockburst tendency prediction based on AHP-TOPSIS evaluation model[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(7):1442-1448.
[12]曹庆奎,刘开展,张博文.用熵计算客观型指标权重的方法[J].河北工程大学学报(自然科学版),2000,17(3):40-42.CAO Qingkui,LIU Kaizhan,ZHANG Bowen. Calculation method of objective index weight by entropy[J]. Journal of Hebei Institute of Architectural Science and Technology(Science and Technology),2000,17(3):40-42.
[13]徐镇凯,温勇兵,魏博文,等.基于组合赋权模糊云理论的高边坡稳定性评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(1):10-17.XU Zhenkai,WEN Yongbing, WEI Bowen, et al.Stability evaluation method for high slope based on fuzzy cloud theory combined with weights[J]. Hydro-science and Engineering,2017(1):10-17.
[14]贾梁.降雨条件下干堆尾矿坝稳定性分析及设计坡比的探讨[D].绵阳:西南科技大学,2015.JIA Liang. The stability analysis and the design of slope ratio discussion of dry-tailing stacking under the condition of rainfall[D]. Mianyang:Southwest University of Science and Technology,2015.
[15]张超兰.非浆体尾矿地表堆存稳定性[D].长沙:中南大学,2012.ZHANG Chaolan. Application and research of non-slurry tailing surface deposition[D]. Changsha:Central South University,2012.
[16]刘福萍.多雨地区尾矿干堆体表面固化试验与应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2014.LIU Fuping. Experimental and applied research on surface curing of dry tailings in rainy regions[D]. Changsha:Central South University,2014.
[17]张钦礼,王兢,王新民.基于核主成分分析与PSOSVM的充填管道失效风险性分级评价模型[J].黄金科学技术,2017,25(3):70-76.ZHANG Qinli,WANG Jing,WANG Xinmin. Failure risk assessment model of filling pipeline based on KPCA and PSO-SVM[J]. Gold Science and Technology,2017,25(3):70-76.
[18]杜卫卫.降雨条件下干堆尾矿库渗流场及稳定性分析[D].石家庄:石家庄铁道大学,2016.DU Weiwei. The seepage field and stability analysis of day-tailing stacking under the condition of rainfall[D].Shijiazhuang:Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,2016.
[19]赵国彦,余佩佩,周礼.基于未确知测度理论的岩体可爆性分级[J].爆破,2013,30(4):20-24.ZHAO Guoyan,YU Peipei,ZHOU Li. Classification of rock mass blastability based on unascertained measurement theory[J]. Blasting,2013,30(4):20-24.
[20]王新民,高瑞文,胡威,等.充填管道堵塞风险预测模型[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2013(11):4604-4610.WANG Xinmin,GAO Ruiwen,HU Wei,et al. Risk prediction model of filling pipeline blockage[J]. Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2013(11):4604-4610.
[21]梁典德.尾矿干堆技术的试验和应用研究[J].有色金属工程,2012,2(2):40-45.LIANG Diande. Experiment and application research on the dry tailings stacking technology.[J]. Nonferrous Metal Engineering,2012,2(2):40-45.