基于用户属性的微博舆情演化仿真研究
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摘要
把握社会事件网络舆情的发展规律,对增强政府管理能力、维持社会舆论稳定有着重要意义。基于微博用户属性和行为分析,综合考虑微博舆情演化的主要推动因素及其关联关系,应用元胞自动机方法,构建了社会事件的微博舆情演化模型,并以MATLAB为仿真工具,采集新浪微博中"于欢案"的相关数据,进行了仿真。结果表明,在微博舆情演化过程中,政府可以通过提高参与力度和活跃程度、增加政务微博数量等方式来更好地发挥政府的舆情引导和社会管理作用。
It is of great significance to strengthen the government management ability and maintain the stability of public opinion in grasping the law of the development of public opinion in social events. This paper constructs the micro-blog public opinion evolution model based on the cellular automata by analyzing attributes and behavior of the users, and considering the main driving factors of micro-blog public opinion evolution and their related relations. Then, the simulation experiment with MATLAB was carried out by collecting the relevant data of the Yu Huan event in Sina micro-blog. The simulation results show that the government can better play the government's public opinion guidance and social management function by improving the participation and activity, increasing the number of government micro-blog in the process of micro-blog public opinion evolution.
It is of great significance to strengthen the government management ability and maintain the stability of public opinion in grasping the law of the development of public opinion in social events. This paper constructs the micro-blog public opinion evolution model based on the cellular automata by analyzing attributes and behavior of the users, and considering the main driving factors of micro-blog public opinion evolution and their related relations. Then, the simulation experiment with MATLAB was carried out by collecting the relevant data of the Yu Huan event in Sina micro-blog. The simulation results show that the government can better play the government's public opinion guidance and social management function by improving the participation and activity, increasing the number of government micro-blog in the process of micro-blog public opinion evolution.
引文
[1] 刘波维,曾润喜. 网络舆情研究视角分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2017,(2): 91-96.
[2] 李莉,付业勤. 旅游危机事件的网络舆情主体特征研究——以凤凰古城收费事件为例[J]. 重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2015,(2):65-69.
[3] 强韶华,吴鹏. 突发事件网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为仿真研究[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2014,(6):71-78.
[4] 洪亮,石立艳,李明. 基于系统动力学的多主体回应网络舆情影响因素研究[J]. 情报科学, 2017,(1):133-138.
[5] 哈达,吴强. 基于传染病模型的舆情传播预测研究[J]. 指挥与控制学报, 2017,(1): 57-60.
[6] 王朝斌,毛乾任,向婷,邓超. 移动元胞自动机的个体化网络舆情聚类模型与仿真[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2016,(19):122-127,160.
[7] 罗晓东. 基于移动元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型[J]. 激光杂志, 2015,(2):119-122.
[8] 邓青,刘艺,马亚萍,张辉. 基于元胞自动机的网络信息传播和舆情干预机制研究[J]. 管理评论, 2016,(8):106-114.
[9] 赵金楼,成俊会. 基于SNA的突发事件微博舆情传播网络结构分析——以“4.20四川雅安地震”为例[J]. 管理评论, 2015,(1): 148-157.
[10] 方薇, 何留进, 孙凯, 赵鹏. 采用元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型研究[J]. 计算机应用, 2010(3): 751-755.
[2] 李莉,付业勤. 旅游危机事件的网络舆情主体特征研究——以凤凰古城收费事件为例[J]. 重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2015,(2):65-69.
[3] 强韶华,吴鹏. 突发事件网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为仿真研究[J]. 现代图书情报技术, 2014,(6):71-78.
[4] 洪亮,石立艳,李明. 基于系统动力学的多主体回应网络舆情影响因素研究[J]. 情报科学, 2017,(1):133-138.
[5] 哈达,吴强. 基于传染病模型的舆情传播预测研究[J]. 指挥与控制学报, 2017,(1): 57-60.
[6] 王朝斌,毛乾任,向婷,邓超. 移动元胞自动机的个体化网络舆情聚类模型与仿真[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2016,(19):122-127,160.
[7] 罗晓东. 基于移动元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型[J]. 激光杂志, 2015,(2):119-122.
[8] 邓青,刘艺,马亚萍,张辉. 基于元胞自动机的网络信息传播和舆情干预机制研究[J]. 管理评论, 2016,(8):106-114.
[9] 赵金楼,成俊会. 基于SNA的突发事件微博舆情传播网络结构分析——以“4.20四川雅安地震”为例[J]. 管理评论, 2015,(1): 148-157.
[10] 方薇, 何留进, 孙凯, 赵鹏. 采用元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型研究[J]. 计算机应用, 2010(3): 751-755.