2006—2016年三峡水库出入库水质变化及影响因素分析
|
摘要
使用2006—2016年宜昌断面及朱沱断面水质数据与影响因素数据,计算水质变化幅度,基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,得到各影响因素对三峡水库出入库断面水质变化幅度的影响时长及贡献率大小.研究表明:长江从朱沱断面到宜昌断面水质变化幅度2006年为0. 07,到2016年下降到-0. 24,在年度上呈好转趋势.水质综合指数对工业污染源废水排放量的响应最大,持续时间最长;对农药施用折纯量和化肥施用折纯量的响应非常小,持续时间最短,但受其间接影响的持续时间非常长.主要驱动因素在研究时间内的贡献率由大到小依次为:工业污染源废水排放量贡献率为38. 10%、城镇生活污水排放量贡献率为33. 78%、船舶油污水贡献率为24. 17%、化肥施用折纯量贡献率为2. 61%、农药施用折纯量贡献率为1. 33%.不同污染物指数变化的影响因素不同,溶解氧的主要影响因素为船舶油污水产生量,高锰酸盐的主要影响因素为工业废水排放量,氨氮的主要影响因素为城镇生活污水排放量.
Based on the impulse response function and variance decomposition from VAR model,this paper uses the water quality data and influencing factors of the Yichang section and the Zhutuo section from 2006 to2016 to calculate the extent of change in water quality. Thereby,we obtain the influence time and the contribution rate of each influencing factor on the variation range of water quality in the inlet and outlet sections of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that,the extent of change in water quality of the Yangtze River section from the Zhutuo to the Yichang is 0. 07 in 2006 while dropping to-0. 24 in 2016,revealing an improved trend in the study period. The water quality composite index has the largest response to industrial wastewater discharge and its impact lasts the longest. The responses to pesticide application and fertilizer application are very small and the duration of their influences are the shortest,but their indirect effects are durable. The contribution rate of major driving factors in the year is listed successively from large to small: the contribution rate of industrial wastewater discharge is 38. 10%,urban sewage discharge 33. 78%,ship oil sewage 24. 18%,fertilizer application 2. 61%,and pesticide application 1. 33%. Different pollutant indexes have different influencing factors. For example,the main influencing factor of DO is the amount of oil produced by ship oil,the main influencing factor of CODMn is industrial wastewater discharge,and the main influencing factor of NH3-N is urban domestic sewage discharge.
Based on the impulse response function and variance decomposition from VAR model,this paper uses the water quality data and influencing factors of the Yichang section and the Zhutuo section from 2006 to2016 to calculate the extent of change in water quality. Thereby,we obtain the influence time and the contribution rate of each influencing factor on the variation range of water quality in the inlet and outlet sections of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that,the extent of change in water quality of the Yangtze River section from the Zhutuo to the Yichang is 0. 07 in 2006 while dropping to-0. 24 in 2016,revealing an improved trend in the study period. The water quality composite index has the largest response to industrial wastewater discharge and its impact lasts the longest. The responses to pesticide application and fertilizer application are very small and the duration of their influences are the shortest,but their indirect effects are durable. The contribution rate of major driving factors in the year is listed successively from large to small: the contribution rate of industrial wastewater discharge is 38. 10%,urban sewage discharge 33. 78%,ship oil sewage 24. 18%,fertilizer application 2. 61%,and pesticide application 1. 33%. Different pollutant indexes have different influencing factors. For example,the main influencing factor of DO is the amount of oil produced by ship oil,the main influencing factor of CODMn is industrial wastewater discharge,and the main influencing factor of NH3-N is urban domestic sewage discharge.
引文
[1]BAHAR M M,OHMORI H,YAMAMURO M. Relationship between river water quality and land use in a small river basin running through the urbanizing area of central Japan[J]. Limnology,2008,9(1):19-26.
[2]SHEN Y N,LJ,CHEN D J,et al. Response of stream pollution characteristics to catchment land cover in Cao-E river basin,China[J]. Pedosphere,2011,21(1):115-123.
[3]WANG X L,LU Y L,HAN J Y,et al. Identification of anthropogenic influences on water quality of rivers in Taihu watershed[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2007,19(4):475-481.
[4]赵鹏,夏北成,秦建桥,等.流域景观格局与河流水质的多变量相关分析[J].生态学报,2012,32(8):2331-2341.
[5]周丰,郭怀成,黄凯,等.基于多元统计方法的河流水质空间分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):544-551.
[6]邵崇斌.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2004.
[7]孔原,刘览.现代物流与我国进出口贸易的关系研究:基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析[J].价值工程,2009(8):45.
[8]GUO W X,WANG H X,XU J X,et al. Ecological operation for three gorges reservoir[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2011,4(2):143-156.
[9]陈迅,冯敬娟.工业污染与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].工业工程,2012,15(1):55-59.
[10]FAN D X,HUANG Y L,SONG L X,et al. Prediction of chlorophyll a concentration using HJ-1 satellite imagery for xiangxi bay in three gorges reservoir[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2014,7(1):70-80.
[11]张地继,董炳江,杨霞,等.三峡水库库区沙峰输移特性研究[J].人民长江,2018,49(2):23-28,68.
[12]刘辉,叶丹,左涛,等.三峡水库水质演变趋势及保护对策[J].水资源保护,2010,26(4):18.
[13]印士勇,娄保锋,刘辉,等.三峡工程蓄水运用期库区干流水质分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(3):308.
[14]尹真真,李琎.三峡水库蓄水前后长江干流主要污染物浓度变化趋势分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014,39(3):45.
[2]SHEN Y N,LJ,CHEN D J,et al. Response of stream pollution characteristics to catchment land cover in Cao-E river basin,China[J]. Pedosphere,2011,21(1):115-123.
[3]WANG X L,LU Y L,HAN J Y,et al. Identification of anthropogenic influences on water quality of rivers in Taihu watershed[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2007,19(4):475-481.
[4]赵鹏,夏北成,秦建桥,等.流域景观格局与河流水质的多变量相关分析[J].生态学报,2012,32(8):2331-2341.
[5]周丰,郭怀成,黄凯,等.基于多元统计方法的河流水质空间分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):544-551.
[6]邵崇斌.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2004.
[7]孔原,刘览.现代物流与我国进出口贸易的关系研究:基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析[J].价值工程,2009(8):45.
[8]GUO W X,WANG H X,XU J X,et al. Ecological operation for three gorges reservoir[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2011,4(2):143-156.
[9]陈迅,冯敬娟.工业污染与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].工业工程,2012,15(1):55-59.
[10]FAN D X,HUANG Y L,SONG L X,et al. Prediction of chlorophyll a concentration using HJ-1 satellite imagery for xiangxi bay in three gorges reservoir[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2014,7(1):70-80.
[11]张地继,董炳江,杨霞,等.三峡水库库区沙峰输移特性研究[J].人民长江,2018,49(2):23-28,68.
[12]刘辉,叶丹,左涛,等.三峡水库水质演变趋势及保护对策[J].水资源保护,2010,26(4):18.
[13]印士勇,娄保锋,刘辉,等.三峡工程蓄水运用期库区干流水质分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(3):308.
[14]尹真真,李琎.三峡水库蓄水前后长江干流主要污染物浓度变化趋势分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014,39(3):45.