基于均方差决策法的淮北市生态承载力评价
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摘要
生态弹性力、承载媒体支撑力、承载对象压力是生态承载力的三个重要要素,分析这些要素的变化特征是评价区域可持续发展状态的有效手段。从生态承载力的三个要素着手,构建淮北市生态承载力评价指标体系,采用均方差决策法确定评价指标权重,利用多元逐步回归分析进行因子筛选,定性分析2010—2016年间淮北市生态承载力变化状况。结果表明:淮北市在2010—2016年间,生态弹性力具有明显的上升趋势,指数由2010年的0.2570升高至2016年的0.9126,2012年以后一直处于中级到较高级的自我维持和调节状态;承载媒体支撑力整体稳步上升,指数由0.2592上升到0.7212,表明淮北市生态系统的支撑能力在2012年以后一直处于中级到高级的水平;承载对象压力指数的变化趋势与承载对象压力的变化趋势相反,表明承载对象的压力呈先增加后减少而后又迅速增加的趋势;生态承载力具有波动上升趋势,2012年后一直处于中到高的承载状态,表明淮北市生态承载能力有良好的发展趋势,但依赖煤炭开采的发展模式导致的资源耗费、环境污染等问题仍然制约着"自然—经济—社会"复合生态系统的协调发展,向生态型城市转型势在必行。
Ecological resilience, supporting capacity of carrying media and pressure of carrying object are three important elements of ecological carrying capacity, and analyzing the characteristics of these elements is an effective means to evaluate the status of regional sustainable development. Based on the three elements of ecological carrying capacity, an evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City was constructed. Method of mean square deviation decision was used to weight the evaluation index, and multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to screen the factors. At last, the change of ecological carrying capacity situation of Huaibei City from 2010 to 2016 was qualitatively analyzed. The results showed that the ecological resilience of Huaibei City was increased significantly from 2010 to 2016, the index increased from 0.2570 in 2010 to 0.9126 in 2016, and 00000000 in a self-sustaining and adjusting state with intermediate to higher levels since 2012. The supporting capacity index of carrying media increased steadily, and the index increased from 0.2592 to 0.7212, indicating that the supporting capacity of ecosystem in Huaibei City had been in intermediate to higher level since 2012. The change trend of carrying object pressure index was contrary to the trend of carrying object, indicating that the carrying object pressure firstly increased then decreased and then increased rapidly again. The ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a rising trend of fluctuation, and the index was in intermediate to high carrying status after 2012,indicating that ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a good development trend. However, the problems of resource consumption and environmental pollution caused by the development mode of coal mining are still restricting the coordinated development of the "natural-economic-social" complex ecosystem. It is imperative to transform Huaibei City to an ecological city.
Ecological resilience, supporting capacity of carrying media and pressure of carrying object are three important elements of ecological carrying capacity, and analyzing the characteristics of these elements is an effective means to evaluate the status of regional sustainable development. Based on the three elements of ecological carrying capacity, an evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City was constructed. Method of mean square deviation decision was used to weight the evaluation index, and multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to screen the factors. At last, the change of ecological carrying capacity situation of Huaibei City from 2010 to 2016 was qualitatively analyzed. The results showed that the ecological resilience of Huaibei City was increased significantly from 2010 to 2016, the index increased from 0.2570 in 2010 to 0.9126 in 2016, and 00000000 in a self-sustaining and adjusting state with intermediate to higher levels since 2012. The supporting capacity index of carrying media increased steadily, and the index increased from 0.2592 to 0.7212, indicating that the supporting capacity of ecosystem in Huaibei City had been in intermediate to higher level since 2012. The change trend of carrying object pressure index was contrary to the trend of carrying object, indicating that the carrying object pressure firstly increased then decreased and then increased rapidly again. The ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a rising trend of fluctuation, and the index was in intermediate to high carrying status after 2012,indicating that ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City had a good development trend. However, the problems of resource consumption and environmental pollution caused by the development mode of coal mining are still restricting the coordinated development of the "natural-economic-social" complex ecosystem. It is imperative to transform Huaibei City to an ecological city.
引文
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[25]刘海龙,马小龙,袁欣,等.基于多元回归分析的铬污染地下水风险评价方法[J].吉林大学学报(地),2016,46(6):1823-1829.
[26]咸云浩,张恒德,谢永华,等.多元逐步回归与卡尔曼滤波法在霾预报中应用[J].系统仿真学报,2018(4):1482-1489.
[27]PAUDEL G S,THAPA G B.Impact of social,institutional and ecological factors on land management practices in mountain watersheds of Nepal[J].Applied Geography,2004,24(1):35-55.
[28]郑兆顺.基于多元回归模型和逐步分析法的濮阳市CPI影响因素分析[J].濮阳职业技术学院学报,2017,30(1):80-84.
[29]金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价-以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[30]李杰,何云玲,刘雪莲.基于均方差决策法的区域资源环境承载力研究-以陆良县为例[J].云南地理环境研究,2016,28(5):54-60.
[31]刘春艳,冯艳玲.基于均方差决策分析法的吉林市土地资源承载力动态评价[J].农村经济与科技,2012,23(10):12-15.
[32]蒋耀.基于综合评价理论的区域可持续发展研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2008.
[33]张力.SPSS 13.0在生物统计中的应用[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,2006.
[34]胡松伟.变深度发射性能可靠性影响因素多元逐步回归分析[J].兵工学报,2017,38(5):986-994.
[35]李洪成,姜宏华.SPSS数据分析教程[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2012.
[36]唐守正.多元统计分析方法[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1986.
[37]彭明春,马纪.生物统计学[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.
[38]李晓倩.土地资源评价指标权重赋值方法的比较研究[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2012.
[39]宋之杰,高晓红.一种多指标综合评价中确定指标权重的方法[J].燕山大学学报,2002,26(1):20-22.
[40]崔兆杰,谢连科,刘雷,等.生态市可持续发展指标体系的建立和评价方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,6(13):1863-1868.
[41]赵强,李秀梅,谢嘉欣.济南市生态弹性力评价研究[J].生态科学,2015,34(2):156-160.
[42]程水英,柴瑜,冯华伟,等.生态脆弱矿区生态承载力定量评价研究[J].能源环境保护,2008,22(4):54-58.
[43]周春生.煤炭资源型城市生态环境可持续发展研究-以鄂尔多斯为例[J].经济论坛,2012(11):136-138.
[44]崔旭,葛元英,白中科.黄土区大型露天煤矿区生态承载力评价研究-以平朔安太堡露天煤矿为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2010,18(2):422-427.
[45]赵晨.淮北市城乡居民收入与人均GDP的回归分析[J].金融经济,2017(14):104-106.
[46]董锁成,李泽红,李斌,等.中国资源型城市经济转型问题与战略探索[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(5):12-17.
[2]王家骥,姚小红,李京荣,等.黑河流域生态承载力估测[J].环境科学研究,2000,13(2):44-48.
[3]沈渭寿.区域生态承载力与生态安全研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
[4]PARK R E,BURGESS E W.Introduction to the Science of Sociology[M].The University of Chicago Press,1970.
[5]RENECKER L A,CHETKIEWICZ C L.Conflicts between reindeer herding and an expanding caribou herd in Alaska[J].Rangifer,2002,22(4):33-37.
[6]NELSON M P,CALLICOTT J B.The Wilderness Debate Rages on:Continuing the Great New Wilderness Debate[M].University of Georgia Press,2008.
[7]SEIDL I,TISDELL C A.Carrying capacity reconsidered:from Malthus’population theory to cultural carrying capacity[J].Ecological Economics,1999,31(3):395-408.
[8]牛文元.持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
[9]曹智,闵庆文,刘某承,等.基于生态系统服务的生态承载力:概念、内涵与评估模型及应用[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(1):1-11.
[10]王开运.生态承载力复合模型系统与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[11]向芸芸,蒙吉军.生态承载力研究和应用进展[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(11):2958-2965.
[12]王云霞.北京市生态承载力与可持续发展研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学,2010.
[13]王树义,郭少青.资源枯竭型城市可持续发展对策研究[J].中国软科学,2012(1):1-13.
[14]王甜.焦作市可持续发展潜力研究[D].开封:河南大学,2015.
[15]陶晓燕.资源枯竭型城市生态安全评价及趋势分析-以焦作市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(2):53-59.
[16]程琳,李锋,邓华锋.淮北市经济与生态环境的动态协调发展研究[J].城市环境与城市生态,2010(4):6-8.
[17]唐帆,董洪光,耿家营.淮北市生态足迹分析与管控对策[J].宿州学院学报,2016(2):35-39.
[18]董洪光,高乐红,耿家营,等.淮北市生态足迹动态演变分析[J].安徽理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(3):34-40.
[19]唐帆.淮北市生态足迹现状分析及治理对策研究[D].淮南:安徽理工大学,2016.
[20]普连仙,吴学灿.生态足迹模型的缺陷及改进研究进展[J].环境科学导刊,2010,29(1):15-19.
[21]惠丽.常山县可持续发展研究[D].南京:南京林业大学,2009.
[22]袁庆,袁魁昌,李清华,等.糖尿病病人住院费用的多元逐步回归分析[J].中国卫生统计,2008,25(4):360-362.
[23]李贵红,张泓,崔永君,等.基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型-以沁水盆地为例[J].煤田地质与勘探,2005,33(3):22-25.
[24]游士兵,严研.逐步回归分析法及其应用[J].统计与决策,2017(14):31-35.
[25]刘海龙,马小龙,袁欣,等.基于多元回归分析的铬污染地下水风险评价方法[J].吉林大学学报(地),2016,46(6):1823-1829.
[26]咸云浩,张恒德,谢永华,等.多元逐步回归与卡尔曼滤波法在霾预报中应用[J].系统仿真学报,2018(4):1482-1489.
[27]PAUDEL G S,THAPA G B.Impact of social,institutional and ecological factors on land management practices in mountain watersheds of Nepal[J].Applied Geography,2004,24(1):35-55.
[28]郑兆顺.基于多元回归模型和逐步分析法的濮阳市CPI影响因素分析[J].濮阳职业技术学院学报,2017,30(1):80-84.
[29]金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价-以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[30]李杰,何云玲,刘雪莲.基于均方差决策法的区域资源环境承载力研究-以陆良县为例[J].云南地理环境研究,2016,28(5):54-60.
[31]刘春艳,冯艳玲.基于均方差决策分析法的吉林市土地资源承载力动态评价[J].农村经济与科技,2012,23(10):12-15.
[32]蒋耀.基于综合评价理论的区域可持续发展研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2008.
[33]张力.SPSS 13.0在生物统计中的应用[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,2006.
[34]胡松伟.变深度发射性能可靠性影响因素多元逐步回归分析[J].兵工学报,2017,38(5):986-994.
[35]李洪成,姜宏华.SPSS数据分析教程[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2012.
[36]唐守正.多元统计分析方法[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1986.
[37]彭明春,马纪.生物统计学[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.
[38]李晓倩.土地资源评价指标权重赋值方法的比较研究[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2012.
[39]宋之杰,高晓红.一种多指标综合评价中确定指标权重的方法[J].燕山大学学报,2002,26(1):20-22.
[40]崔兆杰,谢连科,刘雷,等.生态市可持续发展指标体系的建立和评价方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,6(13):1863-1868.
[41]赵强,李秀梅,谢嘉欣.济南市生态弹性力评价研究[J].生态科学,2015,34(2):156-160.
[42]程水英,柴瑜,冯华伟,等.生态脆弱矿区生态承载力定量评价研究[J].能源环境保护,2008,22(4):54-58.
[43]周春生.煤炭资源型城市生态环境可持续发展研究-以鄂尔多斯为例[J].经济论坛,2012(11):136-138.
[44]崔旭,葛元英,白中科.黄土区大型露天煤矿区生态承载力评价研究-以平朔安太堡露天煤矿为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2010,18(2):422-427.
[45]赵晨.淮北市城乡居民收入与人均GDP的回归分析[J].金融经济,2017(14):104-106.
[46]董锁成,李泽红,李斌,等.中国资源型城市经济转型问题与战略探索[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(5):12-17.