PPP污水治理项目风险分担研究
|
摘要
污水治理项目具有投资金额大、回收期长、工序繁多、收益率低等公共基础设施项目的特点,国家鼓励采用PPP模式进行建设。针对PPP污水治理项目的具体特性,识别PPP污水治理项目的风险因素,以政府方、社会资本方为风险分担主体,将Shapley值与PPP污水治理项目风险分担的4个影响因素联系起来,构建基于Shapley修正值法的PPP污水治理项目风险分担模型,以获得PPP污水治理项目较为科学合理的风险分担方案,更好地推动PPP模式在污水治理中的运用。
The sewage treatment projects are characterized by large investment, long payback period, numerous processes and low yield. The state encourages the PPP model for construction. In this paper, according to the specific characteristics of the PPP sewage treatment project, the risk factors were identified, and the government and social capital were used as risk sharing entities to connect the Shapley value and the four influencing factors of PPP sewage treatment project risk sharing. Risk sharing model of PPP sewage treatment project had been built based on Shapley correction method. In order to obtain a scientific and reasonable risk sharing scheme for PPP sewage treatment projects and better promote the application of PPP model in sewage treatment.
The sewage treatment projects are characterized by large investment, long payback period, numerous processes and low yield. The state encourages the PPP model for construction. In this paper, according to the specific characteristics of the PPP sewage treatment project, the risk factors were identified, and the government and social capital were used as risk sharing entities to connect the Shapley value and the four influencing factors of PPP sewage treatment project risk sharing. Risk sharing model of PPP sewage treatment project had been built based on Shapley correction method. In order to obtain a scientific and reasonable risk sharing scheme for PPP sewage treatment projects and better promote the application of PPP model in sewage treatment.
引文
[1]陈然然,丰景春,薛松.基于VFM的污水处理项目PPP模式适用性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(1):49-53,57.
[2]MEDDA F. A game theory approach for the allocation of risks in transport public private partnerships[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(3):213-218.
[3]刘英杰,孙丽云,杨凯. PPP模式下综合管廊绩效评价研究[J].人民珠江,2017,38(10):105-108.
[4]韩涵,刘秋常,李慧敏.基于不确定型AHP的PPP模式水生态项目的模糊评价[J].人民珠江,2016,37(12):87-90.
[5]袁宏川,游佳成,贺骏.基于云模型的水利PPP项目投资风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):141-144.
[6]王均山. PPP项目市场需求风险与分担机制研究[J].铁道工程学报,2017,34(11):95-98.
[7]李林,刘志华,章昆昌.参与方地位非对称条件下PPP项目风险分配的博弈模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8):1940-1948.
[8]潘华,周小凤.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的PPP项目风险评估——以水污染生态补偿项目为例[J].会计之友,2018(10):74-80.
[9]王蕾,赵敏,彭润中.基于ANP-Shapley值的PPP模式风险分担策略研究[J].财政研究,2017(6):40-50.
[10]刘新平,王守清.试论PPP项目的风险分配原则和框架[J].建筑经济,2006(2):59-63.
[11]尹贻林,赵华,严玲.工程项目风险分担影响因素层次结构及作用机理研究[J].统计与决策,2013(8):175-178.
[12]高华,齐浩,朱俊文.轨道交通BT项目风险分担研究[J].土木工程学报,2015,48(3):128-136.
[13]周和平,陈炳泉,许叶林.公私合营(PPP)基础设施项目风险再分担研究[J].工程管理学报,2014,28(3):89-93.
[14]徐珊,刘潋.基于修正区间Shapley值法的水电PPP项目收益分配研究[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(5):122-126.
[15]马若微,王召方.基于Shapley模型的公私合营基建项目股权结构研究[J].当代经济科学,2015,37(4):118-123,128.
[16]有维宝,王建波,刘芳梦,等.基于GRA-TOPSIS的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担[J].土木工程与管理学报,2018(3):15-21,27.
[17]李妍,王新宇,马丽斌.基于风险最优分配理论的PPP项目风险分担博弈模型——以河北张家口桥西区集中供热PPP项目为例[J].会计之友,2016(14):71-75.
[2]MEDDA F. A game theory approach for the allocation of risks in transport public private partnerships[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(3):213-218.
[3]刘英杰,孙丽云,杨凯. PPP模式下综合管廊绩效评价研究[J].人民珠江,2017,38(10):105-108.
[4]韩涵,刘秋常,李慧敏.基于不确定型AHP的PPP模式水生态项目的模糊评价[J].人民珠江,2016,37(12):87-90.
[5]袁宏川,游佳成,贺骏.基于云模型的水利PPP项目投资风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):141-144.
[6]王均山. PPP项目市场需求风险与分担机制研究[J].铁道工程学报,2017,34(11):95-98.
[7]李林,刘志华,章昆昌.参与方地位非对称条件下PPP项目风险分配的博弈模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8):1940-1948.
[8]潘华,周小凤.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的PPP项目风险评估——以水污染生态补偿项目为例[J].会计之友,2018(10):74-80.
[9]王蕾,赵敏,彭润中.基于ANP-Shapley值的PPP模式风险分担策略研究[J].财政研究,2017(6):40-50.
[10]刘新平,王守清.试论PPP项目的风险分配原则和框架[J].建筑经济,2006(2):59-63.
[11]尹贻林,赵华,严玲.工程项目风险分担影响因素层次结构及作用机理研究[J].统计与决策,2013(8):175-178.
[12]高华,齐浩,朱俊文.轨道交通BT项目风险分担研究[J].土木工程学报,2015,48(3):128-136.
[13]周和平,陈炳泉,许叶林.公私合营(PPP)基础设施项目风险再分担研究[J].工程管理学报,2014,28(3):89-93.
[14]徐珊,刘潋.基于修正区间Shapley值法的水电PPP项目收益分配研究[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(5):122-126.
[15]马若微,王召方.基于Shapley模型的公私合营基建项目股权结构研究[J].当代经济科学,2015,37(4):118-123,128.
[16]有维宝,王建波,刘芳梦,等.基于GRA-TOPSIS的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担[J].土木工程与管理学报,2018(3):15-21,27.
[17]李妍,王新宇,马丽斌.基于风险最优分配理论的PPP项目风险分担博弈模型——以河北张家口桥西区集中供热PPP项目为例[J].会计之友,2016(14):71-75.