南水北调中线干渠藻类增殖潜势的数学分析方法与建议
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摘要
针对南水北调中线干渠存在的藻类增殖风险问题,基于氮磷等营养物质及藻类孢子的大气沉降为汇入源的前提假设,采用沃伦韦德尔模型以及河南、山东、京津冀地区氮沉降平均值及全国磷沉降平均值,对中线干渠全线的营养物质累积趋势进行了估算。结果表明,渠水到达监测点三里屯后,渠水中的营养物质累积浓度会超过富营养化阈值;综合考虑大气中藻类孢子沉降的影响,结合藻类增殖的Monod模型,对文献报道的中线藻类数量空间分布数值进行了拟合,估算出中线干渠藻类生长速率在0.21～0.46个/d范围内波动,取得了相对中值误差为23.71%的估测结果;并在此基础上,提出了可提高预测结果精确度的监测方案。
Addressing the algal proliferation risk in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the trend of the accumulation of nutrients is estimated for the entire Middle Route by applying the Vollenweider model and assuming nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients and the atmospheric deposition of algae spores as the source of sinking and averaging nitrogen deposition in Henan,Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions and phosphorus deposition of the whole country.The results show that the cumulative concentration of nutrients in the canal exceeds the eutrophication threshold at Sanlitun monitoring point and beyond.Taking into account the effects of algae spore settlement in the atmosphere,the reported spatial distribution of algae is fitted by coupling with the Monod model.In the main canal of the Middle Route,algae grow at the rate of 0.21/d～0.46/d,with the relative median error of 23.71%.Based on the results achieved,a monitoring scheme is proposed to improve the accuracy of algal bloom forecasting.
Addressing the algal proliferation risk in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the trend of the accumulation of nutrients is estimated for the entire Middle Route by applying the Vollenweider model and assuming nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients and the atmospheric deposition of algae spores as the source of sinking and averaging nitrogen deposition in Henan,Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions and phosphorus deposition of the whole country.The results show that the cumulative concentration of nutrients in the canal exceeds the eutrophication threshold at Sanlitun monitoring point and beyond.Taking into account the effects of algae spore settlement in the atmosphere,the reported spatial distribution of algae is fitted by coupling with the Monod model.In the main canal of the Middle Route,algae grow at the rate of 0.21/d～0.46/d,with the relative median error of 23.71%.Based on the results achieved,a monitoring scheme is proposed to improve the accuracy of algal bloom forecasting.
引文
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[12]郑丹楠,王雪松,谢绍东,等.2010年中国大气氮沉降特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(5):1089-1097(ZHENG D N,WANG X S,XIE S D,et al.Simulation of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China in 2010[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(5):1089-1097.(in Chinese))
[13]王晓燕,阎恩松,欧洋.基于物质流分析的密云水库上游流域磷循环特征[J].环境科学学报,2009,29(7):1549-1560.(WANG X Y,YAN E S,OU Y.Material flow analysis of the phosphorus cycle in the upper watershed of the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2009,29(7):1549-1560.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2009.07.003.
[14] GB 3838-2002,地表水环境质量标准[S].(GB 3838-2002,Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].(in Chinese))
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[2]梁建奎,辛小康,卢路,等.南水北调中线总干渠水质变化趋势及污染源分析[J].人民长江,2017,48(15):6-9,61.(LIANG J K,XIN X K,LU L,et al.Analysis of water quality variation and potential pollution sources in main channel of Middle Route Project of South to North Water Diversion[D].Yangtze River,2017,48(15):6-9,61.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.15.002.
[3]胡兰群,冯精兰,李怡帆,等.南水北调中线工程水源地丹江口水库生物监测试点研究[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(3):100-104.(HU L,FENG J L,LI Y F,et al.Pilot study on bio-monitoring in Danjiangkou Reservoir of the water source area in the Middle Route of China’s South to North Water Diversion Project[J].Journal of Heman Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2014,42(3):100-104.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.15.002.
[4]黄慧婷,王敏,李玉仙,等.南水北调水源条件下的藻类生长成因及控制技术探究[J].城镇供水,2016(6):73-78.(HUANG H T,WANG M,LI Y X,et al.Study on the genesis and control technology of algae growth under water source conditions in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].City and Town Water Supply,2016(6):73-78.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14143/j.cnki.czgs.2016.06.016.
[5]马吉明,史哲.南水北调典型宽浅渠道糙率系数研究[J].水力发电学报,2007(5):75-79.(MA J M,SHI Z.Research on the absolute roughness of the typical channel of the south-to-north water diversion project[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2007(5):75-79.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-1243.2007.05.015s.
[6]万金保,李媛媛.湖泊水质模型研究进展[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007(6):805-809.(WAN J B,LI Y Y.Progress in the research of lake water quality momel[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2007(6):805-809.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-8227.2007.06.022.
[7]李颖,施择,张榆霞,等.关于用藻密度对蓝藻水华程度进行分级评价的方法和运用[J].环境与可持续发展,2014,39(2):67-68.(LI Y,SHI Z,ZHANG Y X,et al.Evaluation method and application on cyanobacteria bloom degree classification with algal density[J].Environment and Sustainable Development,2014,39(2):67-68.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-288X.2014.02.020.
[8]陈德辉,章宗涉,陈坚.藻类批量培养中的比增长率最大值[J].水生生物学报,1998(1):26-32.(CHEN D H,ZHANG Z S,CHEN J.Maximum specific growth rate(μMAX)of six algal species determined in batch culture[J].Acta Hydrobiologica Sinica,1998(1):26-32.(in Chinese))
[9]程声通.环境系统分析教程[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2016.(CHENG S T.Environmental systems analysis course[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2016.(in Chinese))
[10]陈磊.专家回应南水北调中线输水三大质疑[N].科技日报,2014-12-25(001).(CHEN L.Experts respond to three questions on the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[N].Science and Technology Daily,2014-12-25(001).(in Chinese))
[11]王兴伟,陈家军.地下水内排对南水北调中线干渠水质的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(5):858-861,887.(WANG X W,CHEN J J.Impact of groundwater internal discharge on the water quality of open channel in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science and Technology,2015,13(5):858-861,887.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2015.05.009.
[12]郑丹楠,王雪松,谢绍东,等.2010年中国大气氮沉降特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(5):1089-1097(ZHENG D N,WANG X S,XIE S D,et al.Simulation of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China in 2010[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(5):1089-1097.(in Chinese))
[13]王晓燕,阎恩松,欧洋.基于物质流分析的密云水库上游流域磷循环特征[J].环境科学学报,2009,29(7):1549-1560.(WANG X Y,YAN E S,OU Y.Material flow analysis of the phosphorus cycle in the upper watershed of the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2009,29(7):1549-1560.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2009.07.003.
[14] GB 3838-2002,地表水环境质量标准[S].(GB 3838-2002,Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].(in Chinese))
[15]卜发平.临江河回水河段富营养化特性、机制及人工浮床控制技术研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2011.(BU F P.Study on eutrophication charactertics,mechanism and its countermeasures with artificial floating beds in the backwater of the Linjiang River[D].Chongqing University,Chongqing,2011.(in Chinese))