中国对上海合作组织国家投资效率研究——基于DEA-面板Tobit的实证分析
|
摘要
中国的基础设施投资以加强区域经济联系为目标,为区域价值合作奠定基础。本文以上海合作组织国家为研究对象,以区域经济联系是否加强作为投资效率的评价目标,构建了DEA-面板Tobit两阶段评价模型。定量分析结果表明,中国对上海合作组织国家的投资大部分是有效率的,即中国的跨境投资导致中国与上海合作组织国家的经济联系加强,投资效率不高的国家主要为俄罗斯;Malmquist指数分解表明,"一带一路"倡议实施后中国的投资效率高于倡议实施前,这说明政策是有效的;面板Tobit分析表明,影响投资效率的因素主要是投资国的投资者保护政策和破产问题解决政策。
China's infrastructure investment aims to strengthen regional economic ties and lay the foundation for regional value cooperation. This paper targets the members of the SCO and builds the two-stage evaluation model based on the DEA-panel Tobit. The quantitative results show that most of China's investment in those countries is efficient,that is,China's cross-border investment has led to the strengthening of economic ties between China and those countries. Russia is the main country with low investment efficiency. The decomposition of the Malmquist index shows that China's investment efficiency since the start of the "Belt and Road"Initiative is higher than before,which proves that the initiative is effective. Panel Tobit analysis demonstrates that the factors affecting investment efficiency are mainly the polices of investment protection and bankruptcy solutions in those countries.
China's infrastructure investment aims to strengthen regional economic ties and lay the foundation for regional value cooperation. This paper targets the members of the SCO and builds the two-stage evaluation model based on the DEA-panel Tobit. The quantitative results show that most of China's investment in those countries is efficient,that is,China's cross-border investment has led to the strengthening of economic ties between China and those countries. Russia is the main country with low investment efficiency. The decomposition of the Malmquist index shows that China's investment efficiency since the start of the "Belt and Road"Initiative is higher than before,which proves that the initiative is effective. Panel Tobit analysis demonstrates that the factors affecting investment efficiency are mainly the polices of investment protection and bankruptcy solutions in those countries.
引文
(1)卢福财、胡平波:《全球价值链网络下中国企业低端锁定的博弈分析》,载《中国工业经济》2008年第10期。该文通过一个博弈模型说明跨国公司对中国企业的价值升级路径会选择封锁,而中国企业的突破则很难。此外,该文还列举了一些跨国公司技术垄断的生动案例。
(2)王跃生:《世界经济结构重建与全球经济增长》,载《中国高校社会科学》2017年第3期。
(3)全文参见商务部网站,http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/xxfb/201503/20150300926644.shtml
(4)孙壮志:《“一带一路”合作空间拓展的着力点探究》,载《新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第1期。
(5)M.J.Farrell,“The measurement of production efficiency”,Journal of Royal Statistical Society,Series A(General),1957,Vol.120,No.3,pp.253-290.
(6)这里并没有考虑港口基础设施或班轮运输对经济联系的影响,因为乌兹别克斯坦是一个双重内陆国家,没有港口和班轮运输相关数据,各国数据就不具可比性,所以不予考虑。
(7)空间经济联系度的计算参考了如下文献:郭连成、周瑜、马斌:《中国东北地区与俄远东地区交通运输网络及城市群空间经济联系》,载《东北亚论坛》2017年第3期。
(8)得分越高表示营商环境越好。具体得分的计算方法,参见“Doing business 2017:Equal opportunity for All”,pp.164-169.A World Bank Group Flagship Report.
(9)Fare,Rolf,Shawna Grosskoft,Mary Norris and Zhongyang Zhang,“Productive Growth,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrualized Countries”,American Economic Review,1994,Vol.84(1),pp.66-83.;Fare,Rolf,Shawna Grosskoft,Mary Norris,“Productive Growth,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrualized Countries:Reply”,American Economic Review,1997,Vol.87(5),pp.1040-1044.
(2)王跃生:《世界经济结构重建与全球经济增长》,载《中国高校社会科学》2017年第3期。
(3)全文参见商务部网站,http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/xxfb/201503/20150300926644.shtml
(4)孙壮志:《“一带一路”合作空间拓展的着力点探究》,载《新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第1期。
(5)M.J.Farrell,“The measurement of production efficiency”,Journal of Royal Statistical Society,Series A(General),1957,Vol.120,No.3,pp.253-290.
(6)这里并没有考虑港口基础设施或班轮运输对经济联系的影响,因为乌兹别克斯坦是一个双重内陆国家,没有港口和班轮运输相关数据,各国数据就不具可比性,所以不予考虑。
(7)空间经济联系度的计算参考了如下文献:郭连成、周瑜、马斌:《中国东北地区与俄远东地区交通运输网络及城市群空间经济联系》,载《东北亚论坛》2017年第3期。
(8)得分越高表示营商环境越好。具体得分的计算方法,参见“Doing business 2017:Equal opportunity for All”,pp.164-169.A World Bank Group Flagship Report.
(9)Fare,Rolf,Shawna Grosskoft,Mary Norris and Zhongyang Zhang,“Productive Growth,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrualized Countries”,American Economic Review,1994,Vol.84(1),pp.66-83.;Fare,Rolf,Shawna Grosskoft,Mary Norris,“Productive Growth,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrualized Countries:Reply”,American Economic Review,1997,Vol.87(5),pp.1040-1044.