1998年以来黄河干流水资源量变化特征分析
|
摘要
采用Mann-Kendall法、距平累计法、变差系数法和Sen's斜率估测法分析了1998—2015年黄河流域水资源量变化趋势,结果表明:1998—2015年,黄河水资源量整体上比20世纪末的干旱时期有所增大,且具有空间差异性;干流5个主要水文站中的年均天然河川径流量和水资源总量除兰州站小于1956—2000年的而大于1987—2000年的外,头道拐站、龙门站、三门峡站、花园口站均小于1956—2000年的和1987—2000年的,但与1987—2000年的差异不显著; 1998年以来,5站天然径流量、实测径流量、水资源总量都呈现增大趋势,且实测径流量除龙门站外都通过了99%的显著性检验。黄河流域与地表水不重复计算量的地下水资源量主要集中在中下游的河谷平原,1998—2015年呈现减小趋势。河川径流及水资源变化主要受降水、人类取用水活动和土地利用变化的影响。黄河流域取耗水量呈明显增长趋势,耗水强度最大的为兰州站—头道拐站和龙门站—三门峡站区间,5站控制流域平均降水量除兰州站、头道拐站外,均呈不显著增大趋势。1998—2015年黄河径流量与水资源量增长的主要原因为降水量增大。
The change trends of water resources in the Yellow River basin in recent years were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method,cumulative average deviation method,variation coefficient method and Sen's Method.The results show that during 1998-2015,the average amount of river runoff and total water resources in Huayuankou are 45.229 billion and 54.334 billion cubic meters respectively.Comparing with the drought in the late 20 th Century,the water resources problems have been relieved,but there has been spatial different.During 1998-2015,compared with those of both 1956-2000 and 1987-2000 respectively,those are generally less and the average's differences of those are not significant compared with 1987-2000 in the areas above the 4 main hydrological control stations of Longmen,Toudaoguai,Sanmenxia and Huayuankou on the Yellow River;those of Lanzhou Hydrological Station are less than the average of the two(1956-2000),but slightly more than the average of the two(1987-2000).Since 1998,the amount of river runoff and the amount of measured runoff,the total amount of water resources in the five hydrological stations show an increasing trend and the amount of measured runoff has passed 99% significant tests except Longmen.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of groundwater resources,excluding the surface water,shows a downward trend from1998 to 2015,which is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River valley plain.Changes in river runoff and water resources are mainly influenced by the changes of precipitation,human water intake activities and land use.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of water intake and water consumption shows an obvious growth trend.The largest water consumption areas are Lanzhou-Toudaoguai and Longmen-Sanmenxia.The precipitation of the areas above the rest stations except Lanzhou and Toudaoguai increases(2005-2015) and the change is not significant.Climate change(rainfall increase) is the main reason for the growth of runoff and water resources in the Yellow River(1998-2015).
The change trends of water resources in the Yellow River basin in recent years were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method,cumulative average deviation method,variation coefficient method and Sen's Method.The results show that during 1998-2015,the average amount of river runoff and total water resources in Huayuankou are 45.229 billion and 54.334 billion cubic meters respectively.Comparing with the drought in the late 20 th Century,the water resources problems have been relieved,but there has been spatial different.During 1998-2015,compared with those of both 1956-2000 and 1987-2000 respectively,those are generally less and the average's differences of those are not significant compared with 1987-2000 in the areas above the 4 main hydrological control stations of Longmen,Toudaoguai,Sanmenxia and Huayuankou on the Yellow River;those of Lanzhou Hydrological Station are less than the average of the two(1956-2000),but slightly more than the average of the two(1987-2000).Since 1998,the amount of river runoff and the amount of measured runoff,the total amount of water resources in the five hydrological stations show an increasing trend and the amount of measured runoff has passed 99% significant tests except Longmen.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of groundwater resources,excluding the surface water,shows a downward trend from1998 to 2015,which is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River valley plain.Changes in river runoff and water resources are mainly influenced by the changes of precipitation,human water intake activities and land use.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of water intake and water consumption shows an obvious growth trend.The largest water consumption areas are Lanzhou-Toudaoguai and Longmen-Sanmenxia.The precipitation of the areas above the rest stations except Lanzhou and Toudaoguai increases(2005-2015) and the change is not significant.Climate change(rainfall increase) is the main reason for the growth of runoff and water resources in the Yellow River(1998-2015).
引文
[1]李二辉,穆兴民,赵广举.1919-2010年黄河上中游区径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):155-163.
[2]HE B,MIAO C,SHI W.Trend,Abrupt Change and Periodicity of Streamflow in the Mainstream of Yellow River[J].Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2013,185(7):6187-6199.
[3]王怀柏,赵淑饶,张家军,等.1950-2010年黄河径流情势变化特点[J].人民黄河,2011,33(12):16-18.
[4]於凡,张光辉,柳玉梅.全球气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响分析[J].水文,2008,28(5):52-56.
[5]陈霁巍,穆兴民.黄河断流的态势、成因与科学对策[J].自然资源学报,2000,15(1):31-35.
[6]穆兴民,巴桑赤烈,ZHANG Lu,等.黄河河口镇至龙门区间来水来沙变化及其对水利水保措施的响应[J].泥沙研究,2007(2):36-41.
[7]张国胜,李林,时兴合,等.黄河上游地区气候变化及其对黄河水资源的影响[J].水科学进展,2000,11(3):277-283.
[8]张建云,王国庆,贺瑞敏,等.黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):153-158.
[9]任国玉,姜彤,李维京,等.气候变化对中国水资源情势影响综合分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(6):772-779.
[10]赵兰兰,刘志雨,王金星.气候变化下的黄河流域极端水文现象特征分析[J].水文,2015,35(5):78-81.
[11]史红玲,胡春宏,王延贵,等.黄河流域水沙变化趋势分析及原因探讨[J].人民黄河,2014,36(4):1-5.
[12]白路遥,荣艳淑.气候变化对长江、黄河源区水资源的影响[J].水资源保护,2012,28(1):46-50.
[13]潘启民,常晓辉,蒋秀华,等.黄河花园口以上地下水利用对河川径流的影响[J].人民黄河,2014,36(12):55-57.
[14]王岚,刘志辉,姚俊强,等.1978-2011年呼图壁河径流的变化趋势[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):62-67.
[15]曹建廷,秦大河,罗勇,等.长江源区1956-2000年径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(1):29-33.
[16]杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.气候变化和人类活动对洮河流域植被动态的影响研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1941-1948.
[17]姚玉璧,王润元,邓振镛,等.黄河上游主要产流区气候变化及其对水资源的影响:以甘南高原为例[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):903-909.
[18]胡士辉,陈巧红,张桂花,等.黄河流域水资源利用趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(2):112-115.
[19]张学成,王玲,高贵成,等.黄河流域降雨径流关系动态分析[J].水利水电技术,2001,32(8):1-5.
[20]冉大川,姚文艺,张攀,等.黄河头道拐站水沙来源空间分布及其影响因素[J].泥沙研究,2015(1):42-48.
[21]潘启民,仝春莲.黄河上中游近年水资源量变化特点分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9):53-54.
[22]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.
[23]白夏,王义民,戚晓明,等.黄河上游径流统计特征及演变规律分析[J].人民黄河,2016,38(9):4-7.
[24]孙永寿,段水强,刘希胜,等.近年来青海省黄河流域泥沙变化趋势及成因分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):169-174.
[25]赵广举,穆兴民,田鹏,等.近60年黄河中游水沙变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1070-1078.
[26]任惠茹,李国胜,崔林林,等.近60年来黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):619-631.
[27]ZHANG Yongyong,ZHANG Shifeng,ZHAI Xiaoyan,et al.Runoff Variation and Its Response to Climate Change in the Three Rivers Source Region[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(5):781-794.
[28]黄荣辉,周德刚.气候变化对黄河径流以及源区生态和冻土环境的影响[J].自然杂志,2012,34(1):1-9.
[29]潘彬,韩美,倪娟.黄河下游近50年径流量变化特征及影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):122-127.
[30]宋晓猛,张建云,占车生,等.气候变化和人类活动对水文循环影响研究进展[J].水利学报,2013,44(7):779-790.
[31]刘昌明,李艳忠,刘小莽,等.黄河中游植被变化对水量转化的影响分析[J].人民黄河,2016,38(10):7-12.
[2]HE B,MIAO C,SHI W.Trend,Abrupt Change and Periodicity of Streamflow in the Mainstream of Yellow River[J].Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2013,185(7):6187-6199.
[3]王怀柏,赵淑饶,张家军,等.1950-2010年黄河径流情势变化特点[J].人民黄河,2011,33(12):16-18.
[4]於凡,张光辉,柳玉梅.全球气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响分析[J].水文,2008,28(5):52-56.
[5]陈霁巍,穆兴民.黄河断流的态势、成因与科学对策[J].自然资源学报,2000,15(1):31-35.
[6]穆兴民,巴桑赤烈,ZHANG Lu,等.黄河河口镇至龙门区间来水来沙变化及其对水利水保措施的响应[J].泥沙研究,2007(2):36-41.
[7]张国胜,李林,时兴合,等.黄河上游地区气候变化及其对黄河水资源的影响[J].水科学进展,2000,11(3):277-283.
[8]张建云,王国庆,贺瑞敏,等.黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):153-158.
[9]任国玉,姜彤,李维京,等.气候变化对中国水资源情势影响综合分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(6):772-779.
[10]赵兰兰,刘志雨,王金星.气候变化下的黄河流域极端水文现象特征分析[J].水文,2015,35(5):78-81.
[11]史红玲,胡春宏,王延贵,等.黄河流域水沙变化趋势分析及原因探讨[J].人民黄河,2014,36(4):1-5.
[12]白路遥,荣艳淑.气候变化对长江、黄河源区水资源的影响[J].水资源保护,2012,28(1):46-50.
[13]潘启民,常晓辉,蒋秀华,等.黄河花园口以上地下水利用对河川径流的影响[J].人民黄河,2014,36(12):55-57.
[14]王岚,刘志辉,姚俊强,等.1978-2011年呼图壁河径流的变化趋势[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):62-67.
[15]曹建廷,秦大河,罗勇,等.长江源区1956-2000年径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(1):29-33.
[16]杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.气候变化和人类活动对洮河流域植被动态的影响研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1941-1948.
[17]姚玉璧,王润元,邓振镛,等.黄河上游主要产流区气候变化及其对水资源的影响:以甘南高原为例[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):903-909.
[18]胡士辉,陈巧红,张桂花,等.黄河流域水资源利用趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(2):112-115.
[19]张学成,王玲,高贵成,等.黄河流域降雨径流关系动态分析[J].水利水电技术,2001,32(8):1-5.
[20]冉大川,姚文艺,张攀,等.黄河头道拐站水沙来源空间分布及其影响因素[J].泥沙研究,2015(1):42-48.
[21]潘启民,仝春莲.黄河上中游近年水资源量变化特点分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9):53-54.
[22]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.
[23]白夏,王义民,戚晓明,等.黄河上游径流统计特征及演变规律分析[J].人民黄河,2016,38(9):4-7.
[24]孙永寿,段水强,刘希胜,等.近年来青海省黄河流域泥沙变化趋势及成因分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):169-174.
[25]赵广举,穆兴民,田鹏,等.近60年黄河中游水沙变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1070-1078.
[26]任惠茹,李国胜,崔林林,等.近60年来黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):619-631.
[27]ZHANG Yongyong,ZHANG Shifeng,ZHAI Xiaoyan,et al.Runoff Variation and Its Response to Climate Change in the Three Rivers Source Region[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(5):781-794.
[28]黄荣辉,周德刚.气候变化对黄河径流以及源区生态和冻土环境的影响[J].自然杂志,2012,34(1):1-9.
[29]潘彬,韩美,倪娟.黄河下游近50年径流量变化特征及影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):122-127.
[30]宋晓猛,张建云,占车生,等.气候变化和人类活动对水文循环影响研究进展[J].水利学报,2013,44(7):779-790.
[31]刘昌明,李艳忠,刘小莽,等.黄河中游植被变化对水量转化的影响分析[J].人民黄河,2016,38(10):7-12.