中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业耦合性的四维分析
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摘要
本文创新性地构建"产业耦合性评价指标体系",并基于UIBE GVC数据库中的ADBMRIO表从制造业的竞争性、互补性、依存性和融合性四个维度对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家制造业的耦合情况进行分析。同时,基于增加值贸易分解法对相关指数进行修正,使其可以准确反映增加值贸易视角下双边贸易关系的真实情况。随后从总值贸易和增加值贸易两个视角出发,进一步对中国与33个"一带一路"沿线国家14个制造业产业2010-2017年间的耦合性进行对比分析。结果显示:从整体来看,在总值贸易视角下中国与"一带一路"沿线国家制造业可以保持良好的耦合性,但在增加值贸易视角下双边耦合水平出现恶化;从细分区域来看,无论在总值贸易还是增加值贸易下,东南亚和东亚地区都与中国在制造业领域内具有良好的耦合性,而中东欧地区与中国制造业的耦合性表现则最不理想,中亚和南亚地区均表现一般;从细分行业来看,在精炼石油、木制品、纸制品、皮制品等行业中,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家具有相对较好的耦合性,各国在不同行业中的表现也各不相同。最后,针对如何提升中国与"一带一路"沿线国家制造业耦合性的问题,本文从竞争、互补、依存和融合四个方面提出不断推进中国与沿线国家进一步合作、提升双边制造业耦合水平的建议。
This paper innovatively constructs the "Industry Coupling Assessment Index System" and does a four-dimensional analysis on coupling manufacturing industries between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, i.e., competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration of the manufacturing industries based on the ADBMRIO tables in UIBE GVC Database. At the same time, the relevant indexes are revised based on the value-added trade decomposition method, so that they can accurately reflect the reality of bilateral trade relations in the value-added trade. Then in total value and value added trade, a further study is conducted on coupling 14 manufacturing sub-industries in the years of 2010 to 2017 between China and 33 "Belt and Road Initiative" countries. It is found that, in total trade value, China's manufacturing industry can keep good overall coupling with the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, but it deteriorates in bilateral value-added trade. In manufacturing sub-industries, whatever it is in total value or value-added trade, the manufacturing in Southeast Asia and East Asia has a good coupling with China's, while Central and Eastern Europe is most undesirable in manufacturing coupling with China. Central Asia and South Asia performs in manufacturing coupling with China just so so. In sub-industries, there is a relatively good bilateral coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries in oil refining, wood, paper and leather products, etc. Countries perform differently in various sub-industries. Finally, as to how to enhance the manufacturing coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, this paper puts forward proposals from four aspects, competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration, i.e., to continuously promote further gung ho and up-grade the bilateral manufacturing coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries.
This paper innovatively constructs the "Industry Coupling Assessment Index System" and does a four-dimensional analysis on coupling manufacturing industries between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, i.e., competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration of the manufacturing industries based on the ADBMRIO tables in UIBE GVC Database. At the same time, the relevant indexes are revised based on the value-added trade decomposition method, so that they can accurately reflect the reality of bilateral trade relations in the value-added trade. Then in total value and value added trade, a further study is conducted on coupling 14 manufacturing sub-industries in the years of 2010 to 2017 between China and 33 "Belt and Road Initiative" countries. It is found that, in total trade value, China's manufacturing industry can keep good overall coupling with the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, but it deteriorates in bilateral value-added trade. In manufacturing sub-industries, whatever it is in total value or value-added trade, the manufacturing in Southeast Asia and East Asia has a good coupling with China's, while Central and Eastern Europe is most undesirable in manufacturing coupling with China. Central Asia and South Asia performs in manufacturing coupling with China just so so. In sub-industries, there is a relatively good bilateral coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries in oil refining, wood, paper and leather products, etc. Countries perform differently in various sub-industries. Finally, as to how to enhance the manufacturing coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, this paper puts forward proposals from four aspects, competitiveness, complementarity, dependence and integration, i.e., to continuously promote further gung ho and up-grade the bilateral manufacturing coupling between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" countries.
引文
[1]黄赜琳,姚婷婷.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期协同性及其传导机制[J].统计研究,2018(9):40-53.
[2]马佳羽,韩兆洲.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口持续期及影响因素研究[J].统计研究,2018(6):31-42.
[3]桑百川,杨立卓.拓展中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易关系——基于竞争性与互补性研究[J].经济问题,2015(8):1-5.
[4]韩永辉,罗晓斐,邹建华.中国与西亚地区贸易合作的竞争性和互补性研究——以“一带一路”战略为背景[J].世界经济研究,2015(3):89-98.
[5]赵东麒,桑百川.“一带一路”倡议下的国际产能合作——基于产业国际竞争力的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):3-14.
[6]陈继勇,蒋艳萍,王保双.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易竞争性研究:基于产品域和市场域的双重视角[J].世界经济研究,2017(8):3-14.
[7]詹淼华.“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性——基于社会网络分析方法[J].农业经济问题,2018(2):103-114.
[8]陈东阳,张宏.中国制造业参与全球价值链分工状态及其动态演进——基于前后向产业关联的视角[J].东岳论丛,2018(6):165-174.
[9]陈东阳,张宏.中美双边贸易差额再测算及其驱动因素研究——属地与属权融合视角[J].亚太经济,2017(4):54-63.
[10]Koopman R,Power Z,Wang Z,et al.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2010,No.16426.
[11]Koopman R,Wang Z,Wei S J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].The American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[12]Wang Z,Wei S J,Zhu K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level[R].NBER Working Paper,2013,No.19677.
[13]Wang Z,Wei S J,Yu X D,et al.Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles[R].NBER Working Paper,2017,No.23222.
[14]刘君涵.中美经济共生关系及其调整——基于两国经济发展战略调整的研究[D].成都:西南财经大学博士论文,2013.
[15]胡晓鹏.产业共生:理论界定及其内在机理[J].中国工业经济,2008(9):118-128.
[16]弗朗索瓦.佩鲁,张宁等译.新发展观[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987.
[17]方忠,张华容.文化产业与旅游产业耦合发展的实证研究——以福建省为例[J].福建师范大学学报,2018(1):39-45.
[18]潘雨晨,张宏.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业共生水平与贸易效率研究[J].当代财经,2019(3):106-117.
[19]Finger J M,Kreinin M E.A Measure of “Export Similarity” and Its Possible Uses[J].Economic Journal,1979,89(356):905-912.
[20]Drysdale P.Japanese-Australian Trade[D].Australian National University,1967.
[21]何敏,张宁宁,黄泽群.中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易竞争性和互补性分析[J].农业经济问题,2016(11):51-60.
[22]Brown A J.Applied economics:Aspects of the world economy in war and peace[M].Allen & Unwin,London,1947.
(1)由于篇幅原因,中国与各沿线国家的具体结果以附表1～4展示,见《统计研究》网站所列附件,下同。
[2]马佳羽,韩兆洲.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口持续期及影响因素研究[J].统计研究,2018(6):31-42.
[3]桑百川,杨立卓.拓展中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易关系——基于竞争性与互补性研究[J].经济问题,2015(8):1-5.
[4]韩永辉,罗晓斐,邹建华.中国与西亚地区贸易合作的竞争性和互补性研究——以“一带一路”战略为背景[J].世界经济研究,2015(3):89-98.
[5]赵东麒,桑百川.“一带一路”倡议下的国际产能合作——基于产业国际竞争力的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):3-14.
[6]陈继勇,蒋艳萍,王保双.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易竞争性研究:基于产品域和市场域的双重视角[J].世界经济研究,2017(8):3-14.
[7]詹淼华.“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性——基于社会网络分析方法[J].农业经济问题,2018(2):103-114.
[8]陈东阳,张宏.中国制造业参与全球价值链分工状态及其动态演进——基于前后向产业关联的视角[J].东岳论丛,2018(6):165-174.
[9]陈东阳,张宏.中美双边贸易差额再测算及其驱动因素研究——属地与属权融合视角[J].亚太经济,2017(4):54-63.
[10]Koopman R,Power Z,Wang Z,et al.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2010,No.16426.
[11]Koopman R,Wang Z,Wei S J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].The American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[12]Wang Z,Wei S J,Zhu K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level[R].NBER Working Paper,2013,No.19677.
[13]Wang Z,Wei S J,Yu X D,et al.Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles[R].NBER Working Paper,2017,No.23222.
[14]刘君涵.中美经济共生关系及其调整——基于两国经济发展战略调整的研究[D].成都:西南财经大学博士论文,2013.
[15]胡晓鹏.产业共生:理论界定及其内在机理[J].中国工业经济,2008(9):118-128.
[16]弗朗索瓦.佩鲁,张宁等译.新发展观[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987.
[17]方忠,张华容.文化产业与旅游产业耦合发展的实证研究——以福建省为例[J].福建师范大学学报,2018(1):39-45.
[18]潘雨晨,张宏.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业共生水平与贸易效率研究[J].当代财经,2019(3):106-117.
[19]Finger J M,Kreinin M E.A Measure of “Export Similarity” and Its Possible Uses[J].Economic Journal,1979,89(356):905-912.
[20]Drysdale P.Japanese-Australian Trade[D].Australian National University,1967.
[21]何敏,张宁宁,黄泽群.中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易竞争性和互补性分析[J].农业经济问题,2016(11):51-60.
[22]Brown A J.Applied economics:Aspects of the world economy in war and peace[M].Allen & Unwin,London,1947.
(1)由于篇幅原因,中国与各沿线国家的具体结果以附表1～4展示,见《统计研究》网站所列附件,下同。