滇中一次人工防雹过程的雷达回波对比分析
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摘要
为了研究滇中地区冰雹云的回波特征及防雹效果情况,本文基于昆明新一代天气多普勒天气雷达资料,对2016年8月11日发生在马龙、双柏的作业回波和峨山县的强对流回波演变特征进行了对比分析,结果表明:当回波强度出现跃增、强中心高度保持在4 km以上,同时30 dBz回波高度与回波强度和强中心高度的跃增相对应,回波顶高超过16 km,垂直液态含水量VIL达到20 kg以上时,是冰雹发生的重要物理量临界指标。本次过程中,马龙、双柏在最佳时机开展了人工防雹作业,有效抑制了回波的发展。峨山县由于未进行人影作业,产生了降雹天气,致使烤烟受灾。此次对比分析发现,中尺度特征等部分冰雹云共性指标时效性较差,其他地区的冰雹预报指标并不完全适用,本地总结得出的多普勒雷达指标实用性更高,30 dBz回波高度代表了冰雹云的过冷水区中大粒子的发展情况,其与回波强度和强中心高度的跃增对应关系较好。对于强对流回波,人工防雹作业的开展与否其结果截然不同,这表明人工影响天气是目前防灾减灾的重要手段之一。
In order to discuss the echo characteristics and effect of hail suppression in central of Yunnan,Based on CINRAD data of Kunming,the characteristics of operation echoes in Marlon,Shuangbai and the characteristics of strong convective echo in Eshan on August 11,2016 are compared and analyzed during the evolution.The result shows that when the intension of echo increases,the strong center height remains above 4 km,meanwhile the altitude of the intension of 30 dBz and the echo intensity Corresponding to the jump of the height of the strong center,the echo height exceeds 16 km,and the vertical liquid water content VIL reaches 20 kg or more,which can used as key indicators for hail suppression.In this process,Malone and Shuangbai seized nice opportunity to carry out the hail suppression operation,effectively suppressing the development of echoes and preventing the hail,meanwhile it happened in Eshan County and causes the reduced production of tobacco without operation.It can be seen that some of the hail cloud common indicators such as mesoscale characteristics have poor timeliness,and the hail forecast indicators in other regions are not fully applicable.Local Doppler radar index is more practical,and the 30 dBz echo height,which represents the development of the hail cloud,is better in relation to the jump of echo intensity and strong center height,artificial weather modification is one of the important means of Meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.
In order to discuss the echo characteristics and effect of hail suppression in central of Yunnan,Based on CINRAD data of Kunming,the characteristics of operation echoes in Marlon,Shuangbai and the characteristics of strong convective echo in Eshan on August 11,2016 are compared and analyzed during the evolution.The result shows that when the intension of echo increases,the strong center height remains above 4 km,meanwhile the altitude of the intension of 30 dBz and the echo intensity Corresponding to the jump of the height of the strong center,the echo height exceeds 16 km,and the vertical liquid water content VIL reaches 20 kg or more,which can used as key indicators for hail suppression.In this process,Malone and Shuangbai seized nice opportunity to carry out the hail suppression operation,effectively suppressing the development of echoes and preventing the hail,meanwhile it happened in Eshan County and causes the reduced production of tobacco without operation.It can be seen that some of the hail cloud common indicators such as mesoscale characteristics have poor timeliness,and the hail forecast indicators in other regions are not fully applicable.Local Doppler radar index is more practical,and the 30 dBz echo height,which represents the development of the hail cloud,is better in relation to the jump of echo intensity and strong center height,artificial weather modification is one of the important means of Meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[2]解明恩,程建刚,范菠.云南气象灾害的时空分布规律[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):40-47.
[3]方标,严小冬,方可,等.贵州铜仁市春季冰雹天气特征及防雹预警阀值[J].贵州农业科学,2014,42(3):212-218.
[4]袁红松,廖忠辉,彭辉志,等.湘潭市一次冰雹天气过程分析[J].贵州气象,2014,38(6):30-33.
[5]刘君,肖秀珠,张维.福建西部近10年冰雹雷达资料统计分析[J].气象科技,2013,41(2):339-342.
[6]郑艳,李云艳,蔡亲波,等.海南一次罕见强冰雹过程环境条件与超级单体演变特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(2):163-170.
[7]徐芬,郑媛媛,肖卉,等.江苏沿江地区一次强冰雹天气的中尺度特征分析[J].气象,2016,42(5):567-577.
[8]方标,严小冬,陈关清,等.铜仁市一次冰雹天气的多普勒雷达回波特征分析[J].贵州气象,2014,38(3):9-11.
[9]段鹤,严华生,马学文,等.滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究[J].气象,2014,40(2):174-185.
[10]周德平,杨洋,王吉宏,等.冰雹云雷达识别方法及防雹作业经验[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):258-263;314.