中国食糖进口量对糖价波动影响关系研究——对进口贸易“大国效应”的检验
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摘要
2008-2018年,中国食糖进口数量及其占世界食糖总进口量比重快速增长,期间连续4年成为全球第一大食糖进口国。中国食糖进口量成为影响全球食糖市场变动的重要参数。那么,中国食糖进口贸易是否存在"大国效应"?为此,本文选用VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解进行"大国效应"的实证分析,结果表明:第一,近十年来中国食糖进口贸易不存在"大国效应";第二,国际糖价对中国食糖进口量的影响在短期内较为明显。本文从中国食糖进口占全球的市场份额较低与多样化的食糖双边贸易协议两方面探讨当前中国食糖进口贸易不存在"大国效应"的原因。
From 2008 to 2018, China's sugar imports and its share in the world's total sugar imports grew rapidly. China became the world's largest sugar importer for four consecutive years during the period. China's sugar imports have become an important parameter affecting the global sugar market. Then, is there a "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade? To this end, this paper uses the VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition to conduct an empirical analysis of the "large country effect". The results show that: first, there has been no "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade in the past decade; second, the impact of international sugar price on China's sugar imports is more obvious in the short term. This paper discusses the reasons why there is no "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade from two aspects: the low market share of China's sugar import in the world and the diversified bilateral sugar trade agreements.
From 2008 to 2018, China's sugar imports and its share in the world's total sugar imports grew rapidly. China became the world's largest sugar importer for four consecutive years during the period. China's sugar imports have become an important parameter affecting the global sugar market. Then, is there a "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade? To this end, this paper uses the VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition to conduct an empirical analysis of the "large country effect". The results show that: first, there has been no "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade in the past decade; second, the impact of international sugar price on China's sugar imports is more obvious in the short term. This paper discusses the reasons why there is no "large country effect" in China's sugar import trade from two aspects: the low market share of China's sugar import in the world and the diversified bilateral sugar trade agreements.
引文
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[3]陈芳.我国铁矿石进口贸易中“大国效应”研究[J].价格理论与实践，2015(5）.
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