基于GIS的台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟方法与平台开发
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摘要
将地理信息技术引入台风风暴潮研究中,提出一种台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟方法,由征兆图组、诊断图组和实施图组模拟台风风暴潮淹没风险的征兆、诊断与处置实施情景。征兆图组是台风风暴潮淹没风险影响因素的直观空间表达图;诊断图组是通过台风风暴潮数值模拟得到的不同影响因素组合下的淹没风险图;实施图组以诊断图组为依据,分析推理不同淹没条件下的疏散路径方案,为台风灾害应急疏散提供依据和预案。以舟山为例,开发了台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟平台,模拟不同情境台风风暴潮的淹没风险,并制定了相应的应急疏散预案,实现了快速计算与批量出图、可视化、查询统计等功能,台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟的直观性、条理性及实践性得以提高。
In this paper,the geographic information technology has been introduced into the study on the typhoon storm surge,and a typhoon storm surge inundation scenario simulation method has been proposed,which can simulate the symptoms,diagnosis and disposal scenario of the typhoon storm surge inundation risk with the sign map group,the diagnosis map group and the action map group.The sign map group is an intuitionistic spatial representation of the influencing factors of the typhoon storm surge inundation risk.The diagnosis map group is a series of inundation risk maps under the combination influence of different influencing factors obtained through numerical simulation of the typhoon storm surge.On the basis of the diagnosis map group,action map group analyzes a group of evacuation path schemes confronting the different inundation situations,and provides the basis and plan for emergency evacuation of typhoons.Taking Zhoushan as an example,a scenario simulation platform of typhoon storm surge inundation risk has been developed to simulate the inundation risk of typhoon storm surge in different situations,corresponding emergency evacuation plans should be formulated,and the functions of quick calculation and batch drawing,visualization,query statistics,etc.should be realized.Typhoon storm surge inundation risk scenario simulation has become more direct,rational and practical.
In this paper,the geographic information technology has been introduced into the study on the typhoon storm surge,and a typhoon storm surge inundation scenario simulation method has been proposed,which can simulate the symptoms,diagnosis and disposal scenario of the typhoon storm surge inundation risk with the sign map group,the diagnosis map group and the action map group.The sign map group is an intuitionistic spatial representation of the influencing factors of the typhoon storm surge inundation risk.The diagnosis map group is a series of inundation risk maps under the combination influence of different influencing factors obtained through numerical simulation of the typhoon storm surge.On the basis of the diagnosis map group,action map group analyzes a group of evacuation path schemes confronting the different inundation situations,and provides the basis and plan for emergency evacuation of typhoons.Taking Zhoushan as an example,a scenario simulation platform of typhoon storm surge inundation risk has been developed to simulate the inundation risk of typhoon storm surge in different situations,corresponding emergency evacuation plans should be formulated,and the functions of quick calculation and batch drawing,visualization,query statistics,etc.should be realized.Typhoon storm surge inundation risk scenario simulation has become more direct,rational and practical.
引文
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[2]石先武,谭骏,国志兴,等.风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2013,28(8):866-874.
[3]殷杰.中国沿海台风风暴潮灾害风险评估研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2011.
[4]殷杰,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.基于历史数据的中国台风灾害孕灾环境敏感性分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(1):101-105.
[5] IRISH J L,RESIO D T,RATCLIFF J J.The influence of storm size oil hurricane surge[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,2008,38(9):2003-2013.
[6] LIMA R J,LI C Y.On the importance of the forward speed of hurricanes in storm surge forecasting:A numerical study[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(7):48-50.
[7] XIE L,WU K J,PIETRAFESA L,et a1.A numerical study of wave-current interaction through surface and bottom stresses:Wind-driven circulation in the South Atlantic Bight under uniform winds[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,2001,106(C8):16841-16855.
[8]徐国宾,孟庆林,苑希民.含盐风暴潮溃堤洪水数值模拟及风险分析[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):609-616.
[9]杨昀,王惠群,管卫兵,等.舟山海域风暴潮特征及数值模拟研究[J].海洋学研究,2015,33(3):7-16.
[10]王如云,汪天,吴楚敏,等.基于WENO格式的高精度高分辨台风风暴潮数值模式[J].海洋预报,2017,34(2):21-26.
[11]郜志超,于淼,丁照东.基于GIS技术的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估——以台州市为例[J].海洋环境科学,2012,31(3):137-140.
[12]何佩东,左军成,顾云碧,等.普陀沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估[J].海洋湖沼通报,2015(1):1-8.
[13]于良巨,施平,侯西勇,等.风暴潮灾害风险的精细化评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(1):41-47.
[14]罗锋,盛建明,潘锡山,等.江苏沿海精细化风暴潮模式研究与应用[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(5):687-694.
[15]张月霞.基于ADCIRC模式的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估方法研究与应用——以浙江台州为例[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2014.
[16]沈航,李梦雅,王军.风暴洪水灾害应急疏散方法研究——以浙江省玉环县为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(1):122-126.