气候变化与国际贸易研究综述
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摘要
为研究气候变化与国际贸易的关系,回顾了气候变化与国际贸易领域的重要文献,特别是近年来的最新研究成果,着重分析了国际贸易在应对气候变化带来的经济冲击中所发挥的调整性作用,气候变化对国际贸易的直接影响以及通过劳动力市场产生的间接影响。研究认为,在应对气候变化对农业市场的冲击等问题上,自由贸易将会起到积极的调整作用,能够有效地抑制气候冲击所带来的福利损失,缓解可能出现的全球粮食危机,这一作用的有效实现也有赖于各国政府实行的贸易政策;气候变化将直接改变现有的贸易格局,并通过冲击劳动力市场而对国际贸易产生更为复杂的影响。
This paper reviews the literature,especially the most advanced research results on the role of international trade in climate change. We focus on the adaptive role of international trade in attenuating the impacts of climate change,the direct impacts on trades and indirect impacts on labor market. The results indicate that in response to the shock of climate change on agriculture,free trade plays an overall positive role,which will effectively alleviate the welfare losses and potential food crisis,yet this effectsstill depend on trade policies of different countries. Meanwhile,climate change will alter the current structure of international trade and will impose a sophisticated impact on international trade through shock to the labor market.
This paper reviews the literature,especially the most advanced research results on the role of international trade in climate change. We focus on the adaptive role of international trade in attenuating the impacts of climate change,the direct impacts on trades and indirect impacts on labor market. The results indicate that in response to the shock of climate change on agriculture,free trade plays an overall positive role,which will effectively alleviate the welfare losses and potential food crisis,yet this effectsstill depend on trade policies of different countries. Meanwhile,climate change will alter the current structure of international trade and will impose a sophisticated impact on international trade through shock to the labor market.
引文
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[12] Leclère,D,Havlík,P,Fuss S,et al. Climate changeinduced transformations of agricultural systems:insightsfrom a global model[EB/OL].(2014-09-21)[2018-10-25]. http://iopscience. iop. org/1748-9326/9/12/124018/media/erl506405suppdata. pdf.
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[15] Dell M,Jones B F,Olken B A. Temperature shocks andeconomic growth:evidence from the last half century[J]. American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2012,4(3):66-95.
[16] Dell M,Jones B F,Olken B A. What do we learn from theweather? the new climate-economy literature[J]. Journal ofEconomic Literature,2014,52(3):740-798.
[17] NiemelR,Hannula M,Rautio S,et al. The effect ofair temperature on labour productivity in call centres:acase study[J]. Energy and Buildings,2002,34(8):759-764.
[18] Federspiel C C,Fisk W J,Price P N,et al. Workerperformance and ventilation in a call center:analyses ofwork performance data for registered nurses[J]. IndoorAir,2004,14(S8):41-50.
[19] Tham K W. Effects of temperature and outdoor air sup-ply rate on the performance of call center operators in thetropics[J]. Indoor Air,2004,14(S7):119-125.
[20] Graff Z J,Neidell M. Temperature and the allocation oftime:implications for climate change[J]. Journal ofLabor Economics,2014,32(1):1-26.
[21] Connolly M. Here comes the rain again:weather and theintertemporal substitution of leisure[J]. Journal of LaborEconomics,2008,26(1):73-100.
[22] Hsiang S M. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associ-ated with economic production in the Caribbean and Cen-tral America[J]. Proceedings of the National Academyof Sciences,2010,107(35):15367-15372.
[23] Deschenes O,Moretti E. Extreme weather events,mor-tality,and migration[J]. Review of Economics and Sta-tistics,2009,91(4):659-681.
[24] Cattaneo C,Peri G. The migration response to increas-ing temperatures[J]. Journal of Development Econom-ics,2016,122:127-146.
[2] Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al. Climate change2007:the physical science basis:working group I contri-bution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[3] Gouel C,Laborde D. The crucial role of international tradein adaptation to climate change[EB/OL].(2018-11-05)[2018-11-05]. https://www. nber. org/papers/w25221.
[4] Reilly J,Hohmann N. Climate change and agriculture:the role of international trade[J]. American EconomicReview,1993,83(2):306-312.
[5] Rosenzweig C,Parry M L. Potential impact of climatechange on world food supply[J]. Nature,1994,367(6459):133-138.
[6] Randhir T O,Hertel T W. Trade liberalization as a vehiclefor adapting to global warming[J]. Agricultural andResource Economics Review,2000,29(2):159-172.
[7] Eaton J,Kortum S. Technology,geography,and trade[J]. Econometrica,2002,70(5):1741-1779.
[8] Costinot A,Donaldson D,Smith C. Evolving comparativeadvantage and the impact of climate change in agriculturalmarkets:evidence from 1. 7 million fields around theworld[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2016,124(1):205-248.
[9] Dingel J I,Meng K C,Hsiang S M. Spatial correlation,trade,and inequality:evidence from the global climate[EB/OL].(2018-12-01)[2019-01-04]. http://faculty.chicagobooth. edu/jonathan. dingel/research/Dingel Meng H-siang. pdf.
[10] Baldos U L C,Hertel T W. The role of international tradein managing food security risks from climate change[J].Food Security,2015,7(2):275-290.
[11] Burgess R,Donaldson D. Can openness mitigate the effectsof weather shocks? evidence from India’s famine era[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(2):449-453.
[12] Leclère,D,Havlík,P,Fuss S,et al. Climate changeinduced transformations of agricultural systems:insightsfrom a global model[EB/OL].(2014-09-21)[2018-10-25]. http://iopscience. iop. org/1748-9326/9/12/124018/media/erl506405suppdata. pdf.
[13] Bekkers E,Jackson L A. Exploring the economic impactof changing climate conditions and trade policies on agri-cultural trade:a CGE analysis[J]. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,2018,103:5-26.
[14] Jones B F,Olken B A. Climate shocks and exports[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(2):454-459.
[15] Dell M,Jones B F,Olken B A. Temperature shocks andeconomic growth:evidence from the last half century[J]. American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2012,4(3):66-95.
[16] Dell M,Jones B F,Olken B A. What do we learn from theweather? the new climate-economy literature[J]. Journal ofEconomic Literature,2014,52(3):740-798.
[17] NiemelR,Hannula M,Rautio S,et al. The effect ofair temperature on labour productivity in call centres:acase study[J]. Energy and Buildings,2002,34(8):759-764.
[18] Federspiel C C,Fisk W J,Price P N,et al. Workerperformance and ventilation in a call center:analyses ofwork performance data for registered nurses[J]. IndoorAir,2004,14(S8):41-50.
[19] Tham K W. Effects of temperature and outdoor air sup-ply rate on the performance of call center operators in thetropics[J]. Indoor Air,2004,14(S7):119-125.
[20] Graff Z J,Neidell M. Temperature and the allocation oftime:implications for climate change[J]. Journal ofLabor Economics,2014,32(1):1-26.
[21] Connolly M. Here comes the rain again:weather and theintertemporal substitution of leisure[J]. Journal of LaborEconomics,2008,26(1):73-100.
[22] Hsiang S M. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associ-ated with economic production in the Caribbean and Cen-tral America[J]. Proceedings of the National Academyof Sciences,2010,107(35):15367-15372.
[23] Deschenes O,Moretti E. Extreme weather events,mor-tality,and migration[J]. Review of Economics and Sta-tistics,2009,91(4):659-681.
[24] Cattaneo C,Peri G. The migration response to increas-ing temperatures[J]. Journal of Development Econom-ics,2016,122:127-146.