中国碳强度变化因素再分解的理论与实证
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摘要
借助Kaya恒等式与增长核算公式,对影响产业碳排放强度变化的产业结构效应从生产要素层面分解,并利用1995～2016年中国省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:①TFP、资本和劳动投入变化通过影响经济总量的变化,进而影响某产业的产业结构变化,最终通过产业结构效应影响碳排放强度变化。②中国四个梯队的总体碳排放强度变化差异在进一步缩小,但当产业部门细分至6个时,部分产业的碳排放强度变化存在较大差异。③各产业碳排放强度降低的阻力主要来源于各产业增加值的增速,动力主要来源于各产业能源强度、能源碳强度的降速以及社会资本投入的增速,TFP和劳动的增速在部分产业、部分地区也有推动作用。
With the help of Kaya's identity and growth accounting formula, the industrial structure effect affecting the change of industrial carbon emission intensity is decomposed from the production factor level in this paper, it uses the Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2016 for empirical test. Results show that: ①TFP, capital and labor input changes affect the change of economic structure, which in turn affects the industrial structure change of an industry, and finally affects the change of carbon emission intensity. ②The difference in the overall carbon emission intensity of the four echelon teams in China is further narrowing. However, when the industrial sector is subdivided into six, some of the four echelon industries are quite different. ③The resistance to reduction of carbon emission intensity in various industries mainly comes from the growth rate of added value of industries, and the power mainly comes from the energy intensity of industries, the slow down of energy carbon intensity and the growth rate of social capital investment, the growth rate of TFP and labor also has a promoting role in some industries and some regions.
With the help of Kaya's identity and growth accounting formula, the industrial structure effect affecting the change of industrial carbon emission intensity is decomposed from the production factor level in this paper, it uses the Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2016 for empirical test. Results show that: ①TFP, capital and labor input changes affect the change of economic structure, which in turn affects the industrial structure change of an industry, and finally affects the change of carbon emission intensity. ②The difference in the overall carbon emission intensity of the four echelon teams in China is further narrowing. However, when the industrial sector is subdivided into six, some of the four echelon industries are quite different. ③The resistance to reduction of carbon emission intensity in various industries mainly comes from the growth rate of added value of industries, and the power mainly comes from the energy intensity of industries, the slow down of energy carbon intensity and the growth rate of social capital investment, the growth rate of TFP and labor also has a promoting role in some industries and some regions.
引文
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[14] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[15] 蒋仁爱,冯根福.贸易、FDI、无形技术外溢与中国技术进步[J].管理世界,2012(9):55-66.
[16] 孙传旺,林伯强.中国工业能源要素配置效率与节能潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(5):87-100.
[17] 郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004[J].经济研究,2005(6):51-60.
[18] 张车伟,赵文.中国劳动报酬份额问题——基于雇员经济与自雇经济的测算与分析[J].中国社会科学,2015(12):90-112.
(1)根据数据可得性,本文选择的能源种类包括:原煤、洗精煤、其他洗煤、型煤、焦煤、焦炉煤气、其他煤气、其他焦化产品、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、液化石油气、炼厂干气、其他石油制品、天然气,共17种。
[2] 韩楠.基于供给侧结构性改革的碳排放减排路径及模拟调控[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(8):50-58.
[3] 朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(2):98-102.
[4] 李玉敏,张友国.中国碳排放影响因素的空间分解分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2016(3):73-85.
[5] 邓明翔,李巍.基于 LEAP 模型的云南省供给侧结构性改革对产业碳排放影响情景分析[J].中国环境科学,2017(2):786-794.
[6] 张伟,朱启贵,高辉.产业结构升级、能源结构优化与产业体系低碳化发展[J].经济研究,2016(12):62-75.
[7] 徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006(6):158-161.
[8] Ehrlich P R,Holdren J P.Impact of Population Growth[J].Science,1971(171):1212-1217.
[9] Kaya Y.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP Growth:Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios [R].Paris:Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Working Group,IPCC,1989.
[10] 干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16+31.
[11] 蔡昉,王德文.中国经济增长可持续性与劳动贡献[J].经济研究,1999(10):62-68.
[12] 史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进[J].经济研究,2002(9):49-56+94.
[13] 黄茂兴,李军军.技术选择、产业结构升级与经济增长[J].经济研究,2009(7):143-151.
[14] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[15] 蒋仁爱,冯根福.贸易、FDI、无形技术外溢与中国技术进步[J].管理世界,2012(9):55-66.
[16] 孙传旺,林伯强.中国工业能源要素配置效率与节能潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(5):87-100.
[17] 郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004[J].经济研究,2005(6):51-60.
[18] 张车伟,赵文.中国劳动报酬份额问题——基于雇员经济与自雇经济的测算与分析[J].中国社会科学,2015(12):90-112.
(1)根据数据可得性,本文选择的能源种类包括:原煤、洗精煤、其他洗煤、型煤、焦煤、焦炉煤气、其他煤气、其他焦化产品、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、液化石油气、炼厂干气、其他石油制品、天然气,共17种。