1971—2015年世界铁矿石资源供需与流动格局及其演变
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摘要
本文研究了1971—2015年世界铁矿石供需与流动格局的时空变化,结果显示:①世界铁矿石年产量期末比期初增加了12.26亿t,年均增长2.17%;1992年以前,欧洲曾是世界铁矿石的消费重心,但随后亚洲后来居上。②研究期内世界铁矿石输出量年均增长达3.7%,大洋洲和南美洲成为铁矿石的主要输出地,2015年占世界的比重分别达53.73%和26.23%;本世纪以来铁矿石输入量最大的是中国、日本和韩国,2015年分别占世界总量的65.07%、8.94%和5%。③基于"场"理论,采用位势、"源"、"汇"、迹线等概念审视全球铁矿石流场的基本特征和流场成因,发现世界铁矿石流动的"位势"北半球较低,而南半球较高;亚洲、欧洲是主要的汇流场,大洋洲、南美洲是主要的源流场。本文研究揭示了近半个世纪以来世界铁矿石资源的流动状态及其演变过程,对于我国科学地制定产业政策具有重要价值。
This paper studied the temporal and spatial variations of supply-demand and flow pattern of iron ore in the world from 1971 to 2015. The results show that:(1) The total production of iron ore in the world increased by 1.226 billion tons during this period and the average annual growth rate was 2.17%. Oceania and South America were major producers of iron ore and today accounted for more than 60% of the world's production. The consumption center of iron ore in the world was Europe before 1992, including the Soviet Union, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United Kingdom and France; and then turned to Asia gradually after1992, including China, Japan, India and South Korea.(2) The total output of iron ore in the world increased by 1.260 billion tons and the average annual growth rate was 3.7%. Oceania and South America were the main iron ore export regions. The proportions of iron ore output in the above two continents accounted for 53.73% and 26.23% of the total export in the world in2015, respectively. Since the beginning of this century, China, Japan and Korea have become the largest iron ore input countries. And the proportions of iron ore input in the above countries accounted for 65.07%, 8.94% and 5% of the total input in the world in 2015, respectively.(3)Based on the field theory, the characteristics of resource field were analyzed from the perspective of resource potential, flow distribution, flow traces and change reasons. The"potential"of the iron ore flow in the world was lower in the Northern Hemisphere while it is higher in the Southern Hemisphere. Oceania and South America were the main field sources,while Asia and Europe were the main field convergences, forming the busiest route of global iron ore shipping, namely South America/Australia—Far East route. Space distance, trade policy and market are important factors affecting the flow of iron ore. This paper reveals the flow state and evolution process of iron ore in the world over the past half century, and it has great values for the government to formulate industrial policies scientifically.
This paper studied the temporal and spatial variations of supply-demand and flow pattern of iron ore in the world from 1971 to 2015. The results show that:(1) The total production of iron ore in the world increased by 1.226 billion tons during this period and the average annual growth rate was 2.17%. Oceania and South America were major producers of iron ore and today accounted for more than 60% of the world's production. The consumption center of iron ore in the world was Europe before 1992, including the Soviet Union, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United Kingdom and France; and then turned to Asia gradually after1992, including China, Japan, India and South Korea.(2) The total output of iron ore in the world increased by 1.260 billion tons and the average annual growth rate was 3.7%. Oceania and South America were the main iron ore export regions. The proportions of iron ore output in the above two continents accounted for 53.73% and 26.23% of the total export in the world in2015, respectively. Since the beginning of this century, China, Japan and Korea have become the largest iron ore input countries. And the proportions of iron ore input in the above countries accounted for 65.07%, 8.94% and 5% of the total input in the world in 2015, respectively.(3)Based on the field theory, the characteristics of resource field were analyzed from the perspective of resource potential, flow distribution, flow traces and change reasons. The"potential"of the iron ore flow in the world was lower in the Northern Hemisphere while it is higher in the Southern Hemisphere. Oceania and South America were the main field sources,while Asia and Europe were the main field convergences, forming the busiest route of global iron ore shipping, namely South America/Australia—Far East route. Space distance, trade policy and market are important factors affecting the flow of iron ore. This paper reveals the flow state and evolution process of iron ore in the world over the past half century, and it has great values for the government to formulate industrial policies scientifically.
引文
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[15]赵媛,郝丽莎.我国石油资源空间流动的形成机制.地理研究,2008,27(5):1027-1036.[Zhao Yuan,Hao Lisha.Formation mechanism of spatial flow of petroleum resources in China.Geographical Research,2008,27(5):1027-1036.]
[16]赵冰,王诺.21世纪初期世界石油流动的空间格局与流场特征研究.经济地理,2010,30(6):886-892.[Zhao Bing,Wang Nuo.Study on spatial pattern and flow field characteristics of world oil flow in the early 21st century.Economic Geography,2010,30(6):886-892.]
[17]Hirata H.Method of flow-based modelling for large-scale systems:the basic idea.International Journal of Systems Science,1988,19(2):351-363.
[18]Maric I.Flow measurement system model with distributed resources.Flow Measurement and Instrumentation,2001,12(4):283-289.
[19]陈甲斌,许敬华.国内外铁矿石市场形势分析.江苏地质,2007,31(2):151-156.[Chen Jiabin,Xu Jinghua.Analysis of the market situation of iron ore at home and abroad.Geology of Jiangsu,2007,31(2):151-156.]
[20]董锁成.经济地域运动论.北京:科学出版社,1994:64-66.[Dong Suocheng.Economic Regional Movement.Beijing:Science Press,1994:64-66.]
[21]洪玮.湖南进口铁矿石运输问题初探.冶金管理,2012,(5):42-47.[Hong Wei.Preliminary study on the transport of iron ore in hunan province.Metallurgical Management,2012,(5):42-47.]
[2]杨足膺,赵媛,黄克龙.中国石油资源空间流动的驱动机制分析.地理研究,2014,33(5):863-875.[Yang Zuying,Zhao Yuan,Huang Kelong.Analysis of driving mechanism of spatial flow of petroleum resources in China.Geographical Research,2014,33(5):863-875.]
[3]张新林,赵媛,许昕,等.中国天然气资源流动优势度时空演变特征.地理研究,2016,35(8):1457-1469.[Zhang Xinlin,Zhao Yuan,Xu Xin,et al.Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of natural gas resource mobility dominance in China.Geographical Research,2016,35(8):1457-1469.]
[4]张宗成,王骏.世界铁矿石的生产与贸易和我国铁矿石供需的经济学分析.国际贸易问题,2005,(9):28-33.[Zhang Zongcheng,Wang Jun.Economic analysis of world iron ore production and trade and iron ore supply and demand in China.International Trade Issues,2005,(9):28-33.]
[5]徐斌.国际铁矿石贸易格局的社会网络分析.经济地理,2015,35(10):123-129.[Xu Bin.Social network analysis of international iron ore trade pattern.Economic Geography,2015,35(10):123-129.]
[6]张艳飞,陈其慎,于汶加,等.2015-2040年全球铁矿石供需趋势分析.资源科学,2015,37(5):921-932.[Zhang Yanfei,Chen Qishen,Yu Wenjia,et al.Analysis of global iron ore supply and demand trend from 2015 to 2040.Resources Science,2015,37(5):921-932.]
[7]秦洁璇.2016年中国铁矿石市场回顾及2017年走势分析.冶金经济与管理,2017,(2):10-13.[Qin Jiexuan.Review of China iron ore market in 2016 and analysis of trend in 2017.Metallurgical Economy and Management,2017,(2):10-13.]
[8]朱永光,徐德义,成金华,等.国际铁矿石贸易空间互动过程及中国进口策略分析.资源科学,2017,39(4):664-677.[Zhu Yongguang,Xu Deyi,Cheng Jinhua,et al.The interactive process of international iron ore trade and analysis of China's importation strategy.Resources Science,2017,39(4):664-677.]
[9]Wu J,Yang J,Ma L,et al.A system analysis of the development strategy of iron ore in China.Resources Policy.2016,48:32-40.
[10]谷树忠.资源势:资源空间利用的测度.国土与自然资源研究,1993,(1):1-4,9.[Gu Shuzhong.Resource potentialmeasure of resource space utilization.Land and Natural Resources Sesearch,1993,(1):1-4,9.]
[11]董瑜,谢高地.资源场理论及其在资源流动中的应用.地理科学,2001,21(5):407-411.[Dong Yu,Xie Gaodi.Theory of resource field and its application in resource flow.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):407-411.]
[12]王艳廷,高素英,金浩,等.基于空间坐标的知识辐射场理论研究.河北工业大学学报,2009,38(2):51-55.[Wang Yanting,Gao Suying,Jin Hao,et al.Theoretical study of knowledge radiation field based on spatial coordinates.Journal of Hebei University of Technology,2009,38(2):51-55.]
[13]赵冰,王诺.物流场理论及其在物资流动中的应用.商业研究,2011,(4):188-191.[Zhao Bing,Wang Nuo.Theory of logistics field and its application in material flow.Commercial Research,2011,(4):188-191.]
[14]赵媛,郝丽莎.20世纪末期中国石油资源空间流动格局与流场特征.地理研究,2006,25(5):753-764.[Zhao Yuan,Hao Lisha.Spatial flow pattern and flow characteristics of China's oil resources in the late twentieth century.Geographical Research,2006,25(5):753-764.]
[15]赵媛,郝丽莎.我国石油资源空间流动的形成机制.地理研究,2008,27(5):1027-1036.[Zhao Yuan,Hao Lisha.Formation mechanism of spatial flow of petroleum resources in China.Geographical Research,2008,27(5):1027-1036.]
[16]赵冰,王诺.21世纪初期世界石油流动的空间格局与流场特征研究.经济地理,2010,30(6):886-892.[Zhao Bing,Wang Nuo.Study on spatial pattern and flow field characteristics of world oil flow in the early 21st century.Economic Geography,2010,30(6):886-892.]
[17]Hirata H.Method of flow-based modelling for large-scale systems:the basic idea.International Journal of Systems Science,1988,19(2):351-363.
[18]Maric I.Flow measurement system model with distributed resources.Flow Measurement and Instrumentation,2001,12(4):283-289.
[19]陈甲斌,许敬华.国内外铁矿石市场形势分析.江苏地质,2007,31(2):151-156.[Chen Jiabin,Xu Jinghua.Analysis of the market situation of iron ore at home and abroad.Geology of Jiangsu,2007,31(2):151-156.]
[20]董锁成.经济地域运动论.北京:科学出版社,1994:64-66.[Dong Suocheng.Economic Regional Movement.Beijing:Science Press,1994:64-66.]
[21]洪玮.湖南进口铁矿石运输问题初探.冶金管理,2012,(5):42-47.[Hong Wei.Preliminary study on the transport of iron ore in hunan province.Metallurgical Management,2012,(5):42-47.]