空间相关性对各省市生态文明建设的影响分析
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摘要
生态文明建设活动会在省市之间产生相互影响,使得绿色发展指标存在空间依赖关系,生态文明建设绩效评价需要考虑这种空间自相关作用。本文利用"2016年生态文明建设年度评价结果公报"的指标数据,采用全局Moran指数和局域Moran指数对绿色发展指标及其构成指标进行空间相关性分析,力求以最直观的方法揭示生态文明建设绩效复杂的空间特征。分析发现各省市绿色发展指数存在空间自相关特征,全局Moran指数并不高,但是构成绿色发展指标的环境质量、环境治理、发展质量和绿色生活等指标却普遍具有显著并且强烈的空间自相关特征,生态文明建设绩效受到明显的空间相关性影响。在生态文明建设绩效空间相关性分析中我们发现,与经济活动密切相关的绿色发展构成指标空间自相关程度比较高,与生态环境自然资源禀赋联系比较多的绿色发展构成指标空间自相关程度较低,这就提示我们人类活动引发的空间相关性对生态文明建设绩效具有更加明显的影响,因此我们可以着眼于发挥空间相关性的趋同作用,着力培育生态文明建设先进试点示范样板,鼓励个别省市努力作为,有所突破,率先垂范,以试点示范产生的空间效应激发周边省市生态文明建设的仿效、追赶和竞争动力,带动其他省市向示范省市靠拢,实现生态文明建设整体水平的提高,起到借助空间相关性促进生态文明建设的作用。
The activities of ecological civilization construction will affect each other among provinces and cities,and therefore the green development index have spatial dependence. The performance evaluation of ecological civilization construction needs to consider this spatial autocorrelation. Based on the index data of‘2016 Annual Evaluation Report of Ecological Civilization Construction',this paper analyzes the spatial correlation of green development index and its composition index by using general Moran index and local Moran index,and reveals the complex spatial characteristics of ecological civilization construction performance in the most intuitive way. It is found that green development index has spatial autocorrelation in provinces and cities,general Moran index is not high,but environmental quality,environmental governance,development quality,and green life that constitute green development index have obvious and strong autocorrelation,and the performance of ecological civilization construction is affected by the spatial correlation.Analysis on spatial correlation of ecological construction performance shows that green development index that has a close relation with economic activities has higher spatial autocorrelation degree,and green development index that has a close relation with natural resources endowment has a lower spatial autocorrelation degree. This means that spatial correlation caused by human activities has more significant influence on ecological civilization construction performance. Based on the analysis above,we should focus on the convergent role of spatial correlation,cultivate advanced pilot demonstration models for the construction of ecological civilization,so as to bring other provinces and cities closer to the demonstration provinces and cities,and promote the construction of ecological civilization with the help of spatial relevance.
The activities of ecological civilization construction will affect each other among provinces and cities,and therefore the green development index have spatial dependence. The performance evaluation of ecological civilization construction needs to consider this spatial autocorrelation. Based on the index data of‘2016 Annual Evaluation Report of Ecological Civilization Construction',this paper analyzes the spatial correlation of green development index and its composition index by using general Moran index and local Moran index,and reveals the complex spatial characteristics of ecological civilization construction performance in the most intuitive way. It is found that green development index has spatial autocorrelation in provinces and cities,general Moran index is not high,but environmental quality,environmental governance,development quality,and green life that constitute green development index have obvious and strong autocorrelation,and the performance of ecological civilization construction is affected by the spatial correlation.Analysis on spatial correlation of ecological construction performance shows that green development index that has a close relation with economic activities has higher spatial autocorrelation degree,and green development index that has a close relation with natural resources endowment has a lower spatial autocorrelation degree. This means that spatial correlation caused by human activities has more significant influence on ecological civilization construction performance. Based on the analysis above,we should focus on the convergent role of spatial correlation,cultivate advanced pilot demonstration models for the construction of ecological civilization,so as to bring other provinces and cities closer to the demonstration provinces and cities,and promote the construction of ecological civilization with the help of spatial relevance.
引文
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[20]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择———基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):73-88.
[21]吴玉鸣,田斌.省域环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展及其决定因素———空间计量经济学模型实证[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):627-640.
[22]马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):157-164.
[23]邓靖.基于空间计量的能源效率影响因素分析———来自中国地市及以上城市的经验证据[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(1):51-57.
[2]严耕.生态文明评价的现状与发展方向探析[J].中国党政干部论坛,2013(1):14-17.
[3]魏晓双.试论中国生态文明建设评价体系的构建[J].国土绿化,2013(7):41-42.
[4]张欢,成金华,陈军,等.中国省域生态文明建设差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(6):22-29.
[5]高志刚,丁文恒.中国省际生态文明发展水平比较研究[J].开发研究,2015(2):14-18,23.
[6]李茜,胡昊,李名升,等.中国生态文明综合评价及环境、经济与社会协调发展研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(7):1444-1454.
[7]李巍,郗永勤.效率视角下的省域生态文明建设评价研究[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7354-7363.
[8]李从欣,李国柱.省域生态文明建设综合评价研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(10):210-213.
[9]柴琪宸,郭亚军,宫诚举,等.中国省域生态文明建设协调发展程度的综合评价[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(7):184-190.
[10]KLAASSEN H L,OOMS G,PAELINCK J,et al. A study of the formal structure of J. W. Forrester’s world dynamics model[J].Ecological modelling,1980(8):259-274.
[11]ANSELIN L. Spatial econometrics:methods and models[M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988:34-39.
[12]ANSELIN L. How(Not)to Lie with spatial statistics[J].American journal of preventive medicine,2006(2):3-6.
[13]ELHORST J P. Serial and spatial error correlation[J]. Economics letters,2008(3):422-424.
[14]PACE R K,LESAGE J P. A spatial Hausman test[J]. Economics letters,2008,101:282-284.
[15]FOTHERINGHAM A S,YANG W,et al. Multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)[J]. Annals of the American Association of Geographers,2017(6):1247-1265.
[16]沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010.
[17]王庆喜,蒋烨,陈卓咏.区域经济研究实用方法:基于Arc GIS、Geoda和R的应用[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2014.
[18]杜明泽.基于空间计量的我国省级创新发展研究[J].现代营销,2018(3):4-5.
[19]刘华军,杨骞.环境污染、时空依赖与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014(1):81-91.
[20]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择———基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):73-88.
[21]吴玉鸣,田斌.省域环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展及其决定因素———空间计量经济学模型实证[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):627-640.
[22]马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):157-164.
[23]邓靖.基于空间计量的能源效率影响因素分析———来自中国地市及以上城市的经验证据[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(1):51-57.