“一带一路”国家最终消费的全球PM_(2.5)健康影响
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摘要
通过构建全球投入产出模型MRIO(multi-regional input output),以"一带一路"倡议中的65个国家为主要研究对象,重点分析"一带一路"国家对全球产品的最终需求导致的PM_(2.5)排放对全球的健康影响,并分析"一带一路"国家与中国之间的PM_(2.5)健康影响。期望通过研究,为发展绿色"一带一路"以及为未来制定国际环境公约等,进而促进全球可持续发展提出政策建议。主要研究结果:1)"一带一路"国家作为生产者排放PM2.5造成的健康影响大于其作为消费者对全球产品生产驱动所造成的PM_(2.5)健康影响。2)1990-2008年中国对"一带一路"国家产生PM_(2.5)健康净影响,但从2012年开始影响迅速降低。
A global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO) is built to analyze the health effect of PM_(2.5) emissions induced by the final consumption demand of 65 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the health effect relationship between those countries and China. This study intends to suggest policy for the development of "Green Initiative", to promote global sustainable development, and the formulation of international environmental conventions for the future. The main results are as follows:(1) the health impact of PM_(2.5) emission by countries along Belt and Road Initiative as producers is greater than the health impact of PM_(2.5) emission by these countries as consumers;(2) from 1990 to 2008, China had a net health impact of PM_(2.5) emission on countries along the"Belt and Road Initiative", but the impact decreased rapidly from 2012.
A global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO) is built to analyze the health effect of PM_(2.5) emissions induced by the final consumption demand of 65 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the health effect relationship between those countries and China. This study intends to suggest policy for the development of "Green Initiative", to promote global sustainable development, and the formulation of international environmental conventions for the future. The main results are as follows:(1) the health impact of PM_(2.5) emission by countries along Belt and Road Initiative as producers is greater than the health impact of PM_(2.5) emission by these countries as consumers;(2) from 1990 to 2008, China had a net health impact of PM_(2.5) emission on countries along the"Belt and Road Initiative", but the impact decreased rapidly from 2012.
引文
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[2] Song Y,Wang X,Maher BA,et al.The spatial-temporal characteristics and health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production.2016,112:1312-1318.
[3] Buonanno G,Stabile L,Morawska L.Personal exposure to ultrafine particles:the influence of time-activity patterns[J].Science of the Total Environment.2014,468-469:903-907.
[4] Sorek-Hamer M,Strawa AW,Chatfield RB,et al.Improved retrieval of PM 2.5 from satellite data products using non-linear methods.Environmental Pollution[J].2013,182:417-423.
[5] 高彩艳,连素琴,牛书文,等.中国西部三城市工业能源消费与大气污染现状[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50:240-244.
[6] 冷艳丽,杜思正.能源价格扭曲与雾霾污染——中国的经验证据[J].产业经济研究,2016,71-79.
[7] Guan D,Su X,Zhang Q,et al.The socioeconomic drivers of China’s primary PM2.5 emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014,9:024010.
[8] Jing C,Chunshan Z,Shaojian W.Impacts of energy consumption structure,energy intensity,economic growth,urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations in countries globally[J].Applied Energy,2018,230:94-105.
[9] Liang S,Stylianou K,Jolliet O,et al.Consumption-based human health impacts of primary PM 2.5:the hidden burden of international trade[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,167:133-139.
[10] Xujia J,Qiang Z,Hongyan Z,et al.Revealing the hidden health costs embodied in Chinese exports[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2015,49:4381.
[11] Zhao H,Xin L,Qiang Z,et al.Effects of atmospheric transport and trade on air pollution mortality in China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics,2017,17:1-23.
[12] 梁赛,王亚菲,徐明,等.环境投入产出分析在产业生态学中的应用[J].生态学报.2016,36:7217-7227.
[13] 陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.