基于熵权理想点的水资源承载力风险评价
|
摘要
随着经济的发展,水资源供需矛盾日益加剧。为了科学评价水资源承载力风险,进而对我国水资源利用状况提出警示,从水资源、社会、经济以及生态等4个角度建立了水资源承载力风险评价指标体系;同时,将风险划分为轻度风险、中度风险、重度风险、极度风险4个等级,利用熵权理想点法对水资源承载力风险开展评价。最后,以北京、天津、上海、武汉、重庆等5个城市作为研究对象,对这些城市2015年的水资源承载力风险进行评价研究。研究结果表明:北京市、天津市和上海市处于重度风险级别;重庆市、武汉市处于轻度风险级别。研究结果与实际相符,表明该评价模型具有可行性及推广性。
Rapid economic growth exerts great pressure on water supply. In order to evaluate risks of water resources carrying capacity in a scientific manner, and raise concerns about water resources utilization in China, we established an evaluation index system from perspectives of water resources, society, economy and ecology. Meanwhile, we determined four levels of risks, i.e. mild, moderate, severe, and extreme, and evaluated the risk levels of water resources carrying capacity using entropy weighting ideal point method. We also evaluated risk levels against Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing in 2015. The results show that Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai bear severe risks in terms of water resources carrying capacity, while Chongqing and Wuhan are in the mild risk level. The results are in reasonably good agreement with practical value, suggesting the model is feasible and applicable.
Rapid economic growth exerts great pressure on water supply. In order to evaluate risks of water resources carrying capacity in a scientific manner, and raise concerns about water resources utilization in China, we established an evaluation index system from perspectives of water resources, society, economy and ecology. Meanwhile, we determined four levels of risks, i.e. mild, moderate, severe, and extreme, and evaluated the risk levels of water resources carrying capacity using entropy weighting ideal point method. We also evaluated risk levels against Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing in 2015. The results show that Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai bear severe risks in terms of water resources carrying capacity, while Chongqing and Wuhan are in the mild risk level. The results are in reasonably good agreement with practical value, suggesting the model is feasible and applicable.
引文
[1] 段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.
[2] 凌子燕,刘锐.基于主成分分析的广东省区域水资源紧缺风险评价[J].资源科学,2010,32(12):2324-2328.
[3] 张学霞,武鹏飞,刘奇勇.基于空间聚类分析的松辽流域水资源利用风险评价[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(9):1032-1040.
[4] 杜静.疏勒河灌区开发十三年后水资源承载力风险再评价[J].甘肃科技,2010,26(18):3-5.
[5] 刘涛,邵东国.水资源系统风险评估方法研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005(6):66-71.
[6] Yang X P,Li E C.Early-Warning Model for Tourism Environment Carrying Capacity in Scenic Spots Based on Fuzzy Inference[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012(605-607):2405-2408.
[7] 韩运红,唐德善,李奥典,等.模糊熵权综合评价模型在阜阳市水资源承载力综合评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2015(5):26-29.
[8] 张光凤,张祖陆.基于GIS的济宁市水资源承载力的主成分分析[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(12):21-24.
[9] Wikipedia,The free Encyclopedia.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_analysis[EB/OL]
[10] 林逢春,陆雍森.幕景分析法在累积影响评价中的实例应用研究[J].上海环境科学,2001(6):288-291,306.
[11] 陈继红,孟威,周康,等.基于熵权理想点的集装箱港区安全评估模型与应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(9):71-79.
[12] 方国华.多目标决策理论、方法及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[13] 郭潇,方国华,章哲恺.跨流域调水生态环境影响评价指标体系研究[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1125-1130.
[14] 冯彩云,许新桥,孙振元.北京近自然园林绿地植物群落综合评价指标体系研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2014,41(6):950-955.
[15] 卜楠楠,唐德善,尹笋.基于AHP法的浙江省水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):42-44.
[16] 任青山,方逵.K-means 聚类算法的一种改进方法[J].福建电脑,2016(5):1-3.
[17] 王硕,杨善林,胡笑旋.基于投影寻踪的组合评价方法研究[J].中国工程科学,2008(8):60-64.
[18] 张元杰.投影寻踪技术在昌吉州水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].陕西水利,2018(1):31-32,36.
[19] 李如意,束龙仓,鲁程鹏,等.济宁市水资源承载能力评价方法的应用与对比[J].水资源保护,2018,34(6):65-70.
[2] 凌子燕,刘锐.基于主成分分析的广东省区域水资源紧缺风险评价[J].资源科学,2010,32(12):2324-2328.
[3] 张学霞,武鹏飞,刘奇勇.基于空间聚类分析的松辽流域水资源利用风险评价[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(9):1032-1040.
[4] 杜静.疏勒河灌区开发十三年后水资源承载力风险再评价[J].甘肃科技,2010,26(18):3-5.
[5] 刘涛,邵东国.水资源系统风险评估方法研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005(6):66-71.
[6] Yang X P,Li E C.Early-Warning Model for Tourism Environment Carrying Capacity in Scenic Spots Based on Fuzzy Inference[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012(605-607):2405-2408.
[7] 韩运红,唐德善,李奥典,等.模糊熵权综合评价模型在阜阳市水资源承载力综合评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2015(5):26-29.
[8] 张光凤,张祖陆.基于GIS的济宁市水资源承载力的主成分分析[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(12):21-24.
[9] Wikipedia,The free Encyclopedia.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_analysis[EB/OL]
[10] 林逢春,陆雍森.幕景分析法在累积影响评价中的实例应用研究[J].上海环境科学,2001(6):288-291,306.
[11] 陈继红,孟威,周康,等.基于熵权理想点的集装箱港区安全评估模型与应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(9):71-79.
[12] 方国华.多目标决策理论、方法及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[13] 郭潇,方国华,章哲恺.跨流域调水生态环境影响评价指标体系研究[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1125-1130.
[14] 冯彩云,许新桥,孙振元.北京近自然园林绿地植物群落综合评价指标体系研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2014,41(6):950-955.
[15] 卜楠楠,唐德善,尹笋.基于AHP法的浙江省水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):42-44.
[16] 任青山,方逵.K-means 聚类算法的一种改进方法[J].福建电脑,2016(5):1-3.
[17] 王硕,杨善林,胡笑旋.基于投影寻踪的组合评价方法研究[J].中国工程科学,2008(8):60-64.
[18] 张元杰.投影寻踪技术在昌吉州水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].陕西水利,2018(1):31-32,36.
[19] 李如意,束龙仓,鲁程鹏,等.济宁市水资源承载能力评价方法的应用与对比[J].水资源保护,2018,34(6):65-70.