长江流域气象旱涝异常急转识别及分析
|
摘要
随着全球气候变暖,气象极端事件,例如干旱与洪涝在未来可能会更加频繁地发生。旱涝事件作为气象灾害事件,在中国造成了长期、大面积的破坏与影响。为了将旱涝事件定位至日尺度时间段,使旱涝急转事件可以精确监测,本文采用日尺度的标准化加权平均降雨(standard weighted average precipitation,SWAP)作为旱涝急转研究指标,并采用游程理论提取指标,得到长江流域连续干旱与洪涝事件,判断其旱涝急转程度,分析其强度和发生频率的未来变化情况。
With the acceleration of global warming,extremely meteorological events like droughts and floods may occur more frequently in the future.As meteorological disasters,droughts and floods have caused long-term and large-scale damage and influence in China.To locate drought and flood events and accurately monitor them to daily scale,the daily standard weighted average precipitation(SWAP) was employed as an indicator of droughtflood sudden alternation whose information was extracted from the daily SWAP array by the run theory.The continuous series of drought and flood events in the Yangtze River basin were obtained and their severity was determined.The intensity and occurrence frequency of drought-flood sudden alternation events of the Yangtze River basin in the future were predicted.
With the acceleration of global warming,extremely meteorological events like droughts and floods may occur more frequently in the future.As meteorological disasters,droughts and floods have caused long-term and large-scale damage and influence in China.To locate drought and flood events and accurately monitor them to daily scale,the daily standard weighted average precipitation(SWAP) was employed as an indicator of droughtflood sudden alternation whose information was extracted from the daily SWAP array by the run theory.The continuous series of drought and flood events in the Yangtze River basin were obtained and their severity was determined.The intensity and occurrence frequency of drought-flood sudden alternation events of the Yangtze River basin in the future were predicted.
引文
[1]DAI A G,TRENBERTH K E,KARL T R.Global variations in droughts and wet spells:1900-1995[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1998,25(17):3367-3370.
[2]FRICH P,ALEXANDER L V,DELLA M P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Research,2002,19(3):193-212.
[3]黄荣辉，孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学，1994,18(2):141-151.
[4]陈隆勋，朱乾根，罗会邦，等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社，1991.
[5]龚道溢，朱锦红，王绍武.长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关[J].科学通报，2002,47(7):546-549.
[6]JU J H,WU J M,CAO J,et al.Possible impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(1):39-48.
[7]吴志伟.长江中下游夏季风降水“旱涝并存、旱涝急转”现象的研究[D].南京：南京信息工程大学，2006.
[8]吴志伟，李建平，何金海，等.大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J].科学通报，2006,51(14):1717-1724.
[9]封国林，杨涵洧，张世轩，等.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J].大气科学，2012,36(5):1009-1026.
[10]王胜，田红，丁小俊，等.淮河流域主汛期降水气候特征及“旱涝急转”现象[J].中国农业气象，2009,30(1):31-34.
[11]孙鹏，刘春玲，张强.东江流域汛期旱涝急转的时空演变特征[J].人民珠江，2012,33(5):29-34.
[12]LU E.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:rationale[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(12):1179.
[13]WILBY R L,DAWSON C W,BARROW E M.SDSM-a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts[J].Environmental Model Software,2002,17(2):147-159.
[14]LU E,CAI W,JIANG Z,et al.The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,43(1/2):1-9.
[15]阚贵生.应用游程理论分析农业干旱的初步探讨[J].水文，1986(2):12-18.
[16]李天水，王顺，庄文化，等.游程理论和Copula函数在二维干旱变量联合分布中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):77-82.
[17]YEVJEVICH V.Hydrological Paper[M].USA:Colorado State University,Fort Collins,Colo,1967.
[18]ROCKEL B,WILL A,HENSE A.The Regional Climate ModelCOSMO-CLM(CCLM)[J].MeteorologischeZeitschrift,2008,17(4):347-348.
[19]MOSS R H,EDMONDS J A,HIBBARD K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463(7282):747.
[2]FRICH P,ALEXANDER L V,DELLA M P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Research,2002,19(3):193-212.
[3]黄荣辉，孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学，1994,18(2):141-151.
[4]陈隆勋，朱乾根，罗会邦，等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社，1991.
[5]龚道溢，朱锦红，王绍武.长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关[J].科学通报，2002,47(7):546-549.
[6]JU J H,WU J M,CAO J,et al.Possible impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(1):39-48.
[7]吴志伟.长江中下游夏季风降水“旱涝并存、旱涝急转”现象的研究[D].南京：南京信息工程大学，2006.
[8]吴志伟，李建平，何金海，等.大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J].科学通报，2006,51(14):1717-1724.
[9]封国林，杨涵洧，张世轩，等.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J].大气科学，2012,36(5):1009-1026.
[10]王胜，田红，丁小俊，等.淮河流域主汛期降水气候特征及“旱涝急转”现象[J].中国农业气象，2009,30(1):31-34.
[11]孙鹏，刘春玲，张强.东江流域汛期旱涝急转的时空演变特征[J].人民珠江，2012,33(5):29-34.
[12]LU E.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:rationale[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(12):1179.
[13]WILBY R L,DAWSON C W,BARROW E M.SDSM-a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts[J].Environmental Model Software,2002,17(2):147-159.
[14]LU E,CAI W,JIANG Z,et al.The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,43(1/2):1-9.
[15]阚贵生.应用游程理论分析农业干旱的初步探讨[J].水文，1986(2):12-18.
[16]李天水，王顺，庄文化，等.游程理论和Copula函数在二维干旱变量联合分布中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):77-82.
[17]YEVJEVICH V.Hydrological Paper[M].USA:Colorado State University,Fort Collins,Colo,1967.
[18]ROCKEL B,WILL A,HENSE A.The Regional Climate ModelCOSMO-CLM(CCLM)[J].MeteorologischeZeitschrift,2008,17(4):347-348.
[19]MOSS R H,EDMONDS J A,HIBBARD K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463(7282):747.