基于景气指数法的中国环境承载力预警
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摘要
针对目前环境承载力预警相关研究不足的问题,采用景气指数法构建针对我国环境承载力的预警方法体系,并对我国2001年～2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究:在此基础上对我国31个省(直辖市/自治区)(不含港澳台地区)2004～2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究.结果表明:本研究建立的预警系统结果与真实社会经济发展趋势和环境承载情况吻合良好,预警效果显著,方法具有一定的可行性;预警结果显示:我国各地区环境承载力状态有所差异,全国整体环境承载力承载状态趋好,但未来依然要警惕可能面临环境承载力的超载情况,采取相应措施,减少经济发展对环境造成的压力,提高环境自身承载能力.
The early warning system of environmental carrying capacity was built on the basis of the climate index method to address the lack of relative research, and evaluated its reliability to provide early warning about the environmental carrying capacity of China in 2001～2014. In addition, on this basis, a research on the environmental carrying capacity warnings of 31provinces(autonomous regions/municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) in China in 2001～2014 was conducted. The results of the early warning system established here showed good agreement with the actual social and economic development trends and environmental carrying conditions. From the satisfactory evaluation outcomes, we confirmed its feasibility for providing early warning on the environmental carrying capacity. Moreover, the early warning results indicated that the environmental carrying capacity varied in different regions, but the overall Chinese environmental carrying conditions improved year-on-year. Nonetheless, corresponding measures would be needed for handling the possibility of overloading the environmental carrying capacity in future, to reduce the environmental pressure of economic development and enhance the environmental carrying capacity in China.
The early warning system of environmental carrying capacity was built on the basis of the climate index method to address the lack of relative research, and evaluated its reliability to provide early warning about the environmental carrying capacity of China in 2001～2014. In addition, on this basis, a research on the environmental carrying capacity warnings of 31provinces(autonomous regions/municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) in China in 2001～2014 was conducted. The results of the early warning system established here showed good agreement with the actual social and economic development trends and environmental carrying conditions. From the satisfactory evaluation outcomes, we confirmed its feasibility for providing early warning on the environmental carrying capacity. Moreover, the early warning results indicated that the environmental carrying capacity varied in different regions, but the overall Chinese environmental carrying conditions improved year-on-year. Nonetheless, corresponding measures would be needed for handling the possibility of overloading the environmental carrying capacity in future, to reduce the environmental pressure of economic development and enhance the environmental carrying capacity in China.
引文
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[2]袁明.区域水资源短缺预警模型的构建及实证研究[D].扬州:扬州大学,2010.Yuan Ming.Early-warning model research on the regional water resources shortage and empirical research[D].Yangzhou:Yangzhou University,2010.
[3]任永泰,李丽.哈尔滨市水资源预警模型研究(Ⅰ)--基于时差相关分析法的区域水资源预警指标体系构建[J].东北农业大学学报,2011,42(8):136-141.REN Yongtai,LI Li.Study on warning model of Harbin water resources(I)--Construction of early-warning index system about regional water resources based on correlation analysis of time difference[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2011,42(8):136-141.
[4]鲁然英.城市环境空气质量及其评价方法研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2006.Lu Ranying.Study on the city ambient air quality and the assessment methods[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2006.
[5]耿建生.环境空气质量预警方法的探讨[J].三峡环境与生态,2009,2(3):31-33.GENG Jian-sheng.The research on the early-warning of the air quality[J].Environment and Ecology in the Three Gorges,2009,2(3):31-33.
[6]王计平,邹欣庆.盐城市海岸带环境预警体系研究[J].环境监测管理与技术,2009,21(3):19-22.WANG Ji-ping,ZOU Xin-qing.Study on environment early warning system of coastal zone in Yancheng[J].Environmental Monitoring Management and Technology,2009,21(3):19-22.
[7]刘树枫,袁海林.环境预警系统的层次分析模型[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2001,(S1):138-141.LIU Shu-feng,YUAN Hai-lin.Analytic hierarchy model of environmental warning system[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University:(Natural Science Edition),2001,(S1):138-141.
[8]吴开亚,金菊良,王玲杰.区域生态安全评价的BP神经网络方法[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,17(2):317-322.WU Kai-ya,JIN Ju-liang,WANG Ling-jie.Assessment of regional ecological security using back propagation neural network method[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2008,17(2):317-322.
[9]王慧敏,刘新仁,徐立中.流域可持续发展的系统动力学预警方法研究[J].系统工程,2001,19(3):61-68.WANG Hui-ming,LIU Xing-ren,XU Li-zhong.Study on early warning methods of system dynamics of river basin sustainable development[J].Systems Engineering,2001,19(3):61-68.
[10]郑剑锋,焦继东,孙力平.基于神经网络的城市内湖水华预警综合建模方法研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(5):1872-1878.Jian-feng,JIAO Ji-dong,SUN Li-ping.A modeling approach for early-warning of water bloom risk in urban lake based on neural network[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(5):1872-1878.
[11]崔丹,陈馨,曾维华.水环境承载力中长期预警研究-以昆明市为例[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(3):1174-1184.CUI Dan,CHEN Xin,ZENG Wei-hua.Investigations on the medium-to-long term early warning of water environmental carrying capacity-A case study of Kunming City[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(3):1174-1184.
[12]张志强,黄漫红.中国粮食生产景气指数系统的合成指数分析[J].北京农学院学报,2002,17(3):30-34.ZHANG Zhi-qiang,HONG Man-hong.Compound index analysis of Chinese grain production prosperity index system[J].Journal of Beijing Agricultural College,2002,17(3):30-34.
[13]蒋跃华.中国区域环境效率评价及景气指数研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2016.JIANG Yuehua.Environmental efficiency evaluation and its climate index across provinces in China[D].Changsha:Hunan University,2016.
[14]胡佳蔚.经济景气预警研究发展评述[J].江苏商论,2016,(34):42-43.Hu Jiawei.Review on the development of economic climate warning research[J].Jiangsu Business Theory,2016(34):42-43.
[15]王妍,曾维华,吴舜泽.环境与经济形势的景气分析研究[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(9):1571-1577.WANG Yan,ZENG Wei-hua,WU Shun-ze.Analysis of environmental and economic situation based on the method of prosperity analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2011,31(9):1571-1577.
[16]曾维华,王华东,薛纪渝,等.人口、资源与环境协调发展关键问题之一--环境承载力研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,1991,(2):33-37.Zeng Weihua,Wang huadong,Xue Jiyu,et al.Environmental carrying capacity:A key to the coordinated of development of population,resources and environment[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,1991,(2):33-37.
[17]曾维华,王华东,薛纪渝,等.环境承载力理论及其在湄洲湾污染控制规划中的应用[J].中国环境科学,1998,18(S1):71-74.Zeng Weihua,Wang huadong,Xue Jiyu,et al.Theory of environment carrying capacity and it's application of environmental planning on Meizhou Bay[J].China Environmental Science,1998,18(S1):71-74.