基于三角模型的烟台市海洋经济脆弱性评价
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摘要
随着我国海洋发展战略的快速推进,海洋资源耗竭与生态环境问题频发,海洋经济脆弱性日益引人关注。本文基于三角模型,从压力、敏感性和应对性三个方面构建了沿海城市海洋经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,并以我国最早的沿海开放城市烟台作为研究区域,对其海洋经济系统脆弱性状态与趋势进行评价分析。研究表明:2004—2014年,烟台市海洋经济系统脆弱性状态由中脆弱度下降为低脆弱度,整体来看,海洋经济系统的脆弱性状态不断降低,而未来系统的脆弱性将以敏感性为主导;系统的脆弱性变化趋势由早期的无序发展转向了后期的T5(低脆弱度)方向,中后期系统脆弱性稳定有序降低,表明烟台市海洋经济持续向好发展,已进入良性发展轨道。
With the rapid progress of our national marine development strategy,the exhaustion of marine resources and eco-environmental problems frequently occur,which gets more and more attention on the vulnerability of the marine economy.Based on triangle model,the paper constructs the index system for vulnerability assessment of coastal urban marine economic system on pressure,sensitivity and temporariness,taking the earliest coastal open city of Yantai as the research area,the state and trend of its vulnerability of marine economic system are evaluated and analyzed.The study shows that the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai has reduced from medium vulnerability to low vulnerability in 2004—2014.On the whole,the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai continues reducing,and the vulnerability of the future system will be leaded by sensitivity.The change of the trend of system vulnerability from unordered development in the early to T5(low vulnerability) in the later period and the stably and orderly decrease of the trend of system vulnerability in the middle-later period indicate that the marine economy in Yantai has been developing steadily and entering a healthy development track.
With the rapid progress of our national marine development strategy,the exhaustion of marine resources and eco-environmental problems frequently occur,which gets more and more attention on the vulnerability of the marine economy.Based on triangle model,the paper constructs the index system for vulnerability assessment of coastal urban marine economic system on pressure,sensitivity and temporariness,taking the earliest coastal open city of Yantai as the research area,the state and trend of its vulnerability of marine economic system are evaluated and analyzed.The study shows that the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai has reduced from medium vulnerability to low vulnerability in 2004—2014.On the whole,the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai continues reducing,and the vulnerability of the future system will be leaded by sensitivity.The change of the trend of system vulnerability from unordered development in the early to T5(low vulnerability) in the later period and the stably and orderly decrease of the trend of system vulnerability in the middle-later period indicate that the marine economy in Yantai has been developing steadily and entering a healthy development track.
引文
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[12] BEVACQUA A,YU D L,ZHANG Y J.Coastal vulnerability:evolving concepts in understanding vulnerable people and places[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2018,82:19-29.
[13] GUILLAUMONT P.Assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries[J].The Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(5):828-854.
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[15] 吕伟.烟台市海洋产业结构调整及发展战略研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2013.
[16] 张小虎,张合兵,赵素霞,等.基于三角模型河南省耕地集约利用趋势及时空分异[J].土壤通报,2013,44(2):277-283.
[17] 张健,濮励杰,陈逸,等.区域经济可持续发展趋势及空间分布特征[J].地理学报,2007,62(10):1041-1050.
[18] 赵艳,濮励杰,张健,等.基于三角模型的城市土地可持续利用评价——以江苏省无锡市为例[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):810-815,838.
[19] 马轩凯,高敏华.西北干旱地区绿洲城市土地生态安全动态评价——以新疆库尔勒市为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):172-180.
[20] 姚岚,吴次芳,吕添贵,等.基于三角模型的喀斯特地区土地利用系统健康评价[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(14):246-254.
[21] 李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4):1436-1445.
[2] World Bank.Scaling up marine management:the role of marine protected areas[R].Washington,DC:World Bank,2006.
[3] NEWTON A,WEICHSELGARTNER J.Hotspots of coastal vulnerability:a DPSIR analysis to find societal pathways and responses[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2014,140:123-133.
[4] JANSSEN M A,SCHOON M L,KE W M,et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
[5] 李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[6] 李鹤,张平宇.全球变化背景下脆弱性研究进展与应用展望[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):920-929.
[7] 李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):967-976.
[8] CHRISTOPHERSON S,MICHIE J,TYLER P.Regional resilience:theoretical and empirical perspectives[J].Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):3-10.
[9] 李鹤,张平宇.矿业城市经济脆弱性演变过程及应对时机选择研究——以东北三省为例[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):82-88.
[10] LINO B,GORDON C,NADIA F,et al.Economic vulnerability and resilience concepts and measurements[R].Helsinki:UNU-WIDER,2008.
[11] 孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
[12] BEVACQUA A,YU D L,ZHANG Y J.Coastal vulnerability:evolving concepts in understanding vulnerable people and places[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2018,82:19-29.
[13] GUILLAUMONT P.Assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries[J].The Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(5):828-854.
[14] 李晓琴,张炜熙.海洋经济脆弱性的研究综述[J].海洋经济,2014,4(1):44-49.
[15] 吕伟.烟台市海洋产业结构调整及发展战略研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2013.
[16] 张小虎,张合兵,赵素霞,等.基于三角模型河南省耕地集约利用趋势及时空分异[J].土壤通报,2013,44(2):277-283.
[17] 张健,濮励杰,陈逸,等.区域经济可持续发展趋势及空间分布特征[J].地理学报,2007,62(10):1041-1050.
[18] 赵艳,濮励杰,张健,等.基于三角模型的城市土地可持续利用评价——以江苏省无锡市为例[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):810-815,838.
[19] 马轩凯,高敏华.西北干旱地区绿洲城市土地生态安全动态评价——以新疆库尔勒市为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):172-180.
[20] 姚岚,吴次芳,吕添贵,等.基于三角模型的喀斯特地区土地利用系统健康评价[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(14):246-254.
[21] 李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4):1436-1445.