“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家国际收支影响的实证研究
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摘要
本文使用双重差分模型(DID),集中研究"一带一路"倡议对中国经常账户和资本与金融账户的影响,从国际收支的重要角度论证了"一带一路"的经济可行性。分别计算该倡议对经常账户以及资本与金融账户影响的性质与大小,可以发现中国对"一带一路"沿线国家国际收支的经常项目保持了顺差,但资本与金融账户则不确定。这是因为"一带一路"目前还处于经济与贸易融合阶段。未来是否能够进入金融融合高级阶段,取决于中国金融核心能力建设、人民币国际化以及中国是否能成功摆脱中等收入陷阱等因素。
This paper focuses on the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on China's current account and capital and financial accounts with countries along the "B&R" through the difference-in-difference model(DID),and demonstrates its economic feasibility from the important perspective of the balance of payments.This paper separately calculated the nature and size of the impact of the "B&R" initiative on the current account and capital and financial accounts,showing that China maintained a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments,but the capital and financial accounts were uncertain.This is because the "Belt and Road" initiative is still in the stage of economic and trade integration.Whether the advanced stage of financial integration can be achieved depends on China's financial core capacity building,RMB internationalization,and whether China can successfully get rid of the middle income trap,etc.
This paper focuses on the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on China's current account and capital and financial accounts with countries along the "B&R" through the difference-in-difference model(DID),and demonstrates its economic feasibility from the important perspective of the balance of payments.This paper separately calculated the nature and size of the impact of the "B&R" initiative on the current account and capital and financial accounts,showing that China maintained a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments,but the capital and financial accounts were uncertain.This is because the "Belt and Road" initiative is still in the stage of economic and trade integration.Whether the advanced stage of financial integration can be achieved depends on China's financial core capacity building,RMB internationalization,and whether China can successfully get rid of the middle income trap,etc.
引文
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[18]INDRADEEP G.The relation between trade and FDI in developing countries—a panel data approach[J].Global Economy Journal,2011,7(3):1-32.
[19]HOU J,CHEN S,XIAO D.Measuring the benefits of the “One Belt,One Road”Initiative for manufacturing industries in China[J].Sustainability,2018,10(12):1-16.
[20]邹嘉龄,刘卫东.2001～2013 年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析[J].地理科学,2016(11):1629-1636.
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[22]孙长华,桑柳玉.国际收支经常账户余额规模决定因素研究 [J].上海商学院学报,2011(6):60-65,81.
[23]王佳.经常账户失衡内在根源:财政赤字、人口结构、经济增长[J].商业研究,2017(9):69-79.
[24]焦武.中国国际收支经常账户与资本金融账户关系研究:1981-2007[J].统计研究,2010(12):78-85.
[25]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
[26]王丹.外商直接投资对资本和金融账户影响的研究[J].统计与决策,2015(10):165-168.
[27]孟刚.“一带一路”开放新格局中我国资本项目开放的路径选择[J].武汉金融,2018(4):48-52,74.
[2]卢锋.“一带一路”的影响、困难与风险[J].奋斗,2015(7):45-46.
[3]王海峰.推进“一带一路”倡议的国际经验比较[J].国际贸易,2016(6):20-27.
[4]保建云.论我国“一带一路”海外投资的全球金融影响、市场约束及“敌意风险”治理[J].中国软科学,2017(3):1-10.
[5]CHENG L K.Three questions on China's “Belt and Road Initiative”[J].China Economic Review,2016,40:309-313.
[6]王国刚.“一带一路”:闯出全球经济资源配置的中国之路[J].金融论坛,2015(10):17-29.
[7]YII K,BEE K,CHEAM W,et al.Is transportation infrastructure important to the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative?Empirical evidence from the selected Asian countries[J].Sustainability,2018,10(11):1-18.
[8]章秀琴,余长婧.“一带一路”基础设施建设的贸易效应研究[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2019(1):72-83.
[9]BOND P.Basic infrastructure for socio-economic development,environmental protection and geographical desegregation:South Africa's unmet challenge[J].Geoforum,1999,30(1):43-59.
[10]CAI K G.The One Belt One Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank:Beijing's new strategy of geoeconomics and geopolitics[J].Journal of Contemporary China,2018,27(114):831-847.
[11]李建军,李俊成.“一带一路”基础设施建设、经济发展与金融要素[J].国际金融研究,2018(2):8-18.
[12]LIU H Y,TANG Y K,CHEN X L,et al.The determinants of Chinese outward FDI in countries along “One Belt One Road” [J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2017,53(6):1374-1387.
[13]NIU B,XU J,LEE C K M,et al.Order timing and tax planning when selling to a rival in a low-tax emerging market[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistic and Transportation Review,2019,123:165-179.
[14]许娇,陈坤铭,杨书菲,等.“一带一路”交通基础设施建设的国际经贸效应[J].亚太经济,2016(3):3-11.
[15]FRY M J.How foreign direct investment in Pacific Asia improves the current account[J].Journal of Asian Economics,1996,7(3):459-486.
[16]KANG L,PENG F,ZHU Y,et al.Harmony in diversity:can the One Belt One Road Initiative promote China's outward foreign direct investment?[J].Sustainability,2018,10(9):1-28.
[17]DU J,ZHANG Y.Does One Belt One Road initiative promote Chinese overseas direct investment?[J].China Economic Review,2018,47:189-205.
[18]INDRADEEP G.The relation between trade and FDI in developing countries—a panel data approach[J].Global Economy Journal,2011,7(3):1-32.
[19]HOU J,CHEN S,XIAO D.Measuring the benefits of the “One Belt,One Road”Initiative for manufacturing industries in China[J].Sustainability,2018,10(12):1-16.
[20]邹嘉龄,刘卫东.2001～2013 年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析[J].地理科学,2016(11):1629-1636.
[21]桑百川,杨立卓.拓展我国与“一带一路”国家的贸易关系——基于竞争性与互补性研究[J].经济问题,2015(8):1-5.
[22]孙长华,桑柳玉.国际收支经常账户余额规模决定因素研究 [J].上海商学院学报,2011(6):60-65,81.
[23]王佳.经常账户失衡内在根源:财政赤字、人口结构、经济增长[J].商业研究,2017(9):69-79.
[24]焦武.中国国际收支经常账户与资本金融账户关系研究:1981-2007[J].统计研究,2010(12):78-85.
[25]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
[26]王丹.外商直接投资对资本和金融账户影响的研究[J].统计与决策,2015(10):165-168.
[27]孟刚.“一带一路”开放新格局中我国资本项目开放的路径选择[J].武汉金融,2018(4):48-52,74.