全球铀矿生产成本及供需形势展望
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摘要
铀资源是重要的战略资源和能源矿产,是核能发电的重要原料。通过统计分析近年来各类型、各地区的铀矿山生产成本,发现多金属铁氧化物角砾杂岩型、砂岩型和不整合面型铀矿生产成本较低,角砾岩筒型、侵入岩和脉型等铀矿化类型成本相对较高。从各大洲统计,亚洲铀矿生产成本最低,其次为澳洲、非洲、美洲等。受天然铀价格低迷影响,随着一批高成本铀矿山的关闭,预测短期内全球铀矿山生产成本会有所降低,中长期成本将渐渐提高。基于当前国内外核电发展形势和铀矿供需格局,近期全球天然铀基本处于供需平衡,铀资源对核电需求有充分保障;2025年以后,随着核电的发展增速,铀资源可能会出现较大的供需缺口。我国核电铀供需缺口较大,需采取有效措施确保天然铀供应安全。
Uranium is a crucial strategic resource and energy mineral,as well as the most important raw material for nuclear power generation.Through statistical analysis on production costs of various types and regions of uranium mines in recent years,it is found that,the production costs of polymetallic iron oxide breccia type,sandstone type and unconformity type uranium deposits are relatively low,while the costs of breccia tube type,intrusive rock type and vein type uranium deposits are relatively high.From the statistics of all continents,the uranium production cost of Asian is the lowest,followed by Australia,Africa,the Americas and so on.Affected by the depressed price of natural uranium,with the closure of a number of high-cost uranium mines,it is expected that the production costs of global uranium mines will decrease in the short term,but will gradually increase in the medium to long term.Based on the current situation of nuclear power development at home and abroad as well as the supply and demand pattern of uranium ore,the global natural uranium supply and demand are basically in balance in the near future,and uranium resources can provide sufficient guarantee for the demand of nuclear power.After 2025,with the development of nuclear power,there may be a large supply and demand gap of uranium resources,and China's nuclear uranium supply and demand gap is relatively large,so effective measures should be taken to ensure the safety of natural uranium supply.
Uranium is a crucial strategic resource and energy mineral,as well as the most important raw material for nuclear power generation.Through statistical analysis on production costs of various types and regions of uranium mines in recent years,it is found that,the production costs of polymetallic iron oxide breccia type,sandstone type and unconformity type uranium deposits are relatively low,while the costs of breccia tube type,intrusive rock type and vein type uranium deposits are relatively high.From the statistics of all continents,the uranium production cost of Asian is the lowest,followed by Australia,Africa,the Americas and so on.Affected by the depressed price of natural uranium,with the closure of a number of high-cost uranium mines,it is expected that the production costs of global uranium mines will decrease in the short term,but will gradually increase in the medium to long term.Based on the current situation of nuclear power development at home and abroad as well as the supply and demand pattern of uranium ore,the global natural uranium supply and demand are basically in balance in the near future,and uranium resources can provide sufficient guarantee for the demand of nuclear power.After 2025,with the development of nuclear power,there may be a large supply and demand gap of uranium resources,and China's nuclear uranium supply and demand gap is relatively large,so effective measures should be taken to ensure the safety of natural uranium supply.
引文
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[2]李强，王建平，徐千琰．世界铀资源概况及供需形势展望[J]．中国矿业，2013,22(11):13-18.
[3] Xing W L,Wang A J,Yan Q,et al.A study of China’s uranium resources security issues:Based on analysis of China’s nuclear power development trend[J].Annals of Nuclear Energy,2017,110:1156-1164.
[4] Zhang J P,Liu Z R, Wang L.Uranium demand and economic analysis of different nuclear fuel cycles in China[J].Energy Strategy Reviews,2016(9):50-61.
[5] OECD/NEA-IAEA.Uranium 2016:Resources,Production and Demand[M].Vienna:IAEA,2017.
[6] World Nuclear Association.Uranium Production Figures,2008—2017[EB/OL].http：//www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/uranium-productionfigures.aspx.
[7] World Nuclear Association. World Uranium Mining Production[EB/OL].http：//www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium world-uranium-mining-production.aspx.
[8] World Nuclear Association.World Nuclear Power Reactors&UraniumRequirements[EB/OL].http：//www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-powerreactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx.
[9] World Energy Outlook 2015. http：//www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2015SUM.pdf.
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