基于贝叶斯决策树的小麦镉风险识别规则提取
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摘要
为揭示环境因素与小麦Cd超标风险的关系,综合考虑了小麦Cd富集的7个影响因素(土壤Cd浓度、污染企业、城镇村及工矿用地、交通运输用地、土壤类型、土壤有机质含量(SOM)和土壤pH值),采用ID3算法与朴素贝叶斯算法,建立起5棵贝叶斯决策树.提出了15条小麦Cd超标风险的识别规则,将超标风险分为5级并确定了小麦Cd富集的3个主控因子:污染企业、土壤pH值和土壤Cd浓度.经检验,5棵决策树风险识别的平均精度为81.14%,而使用风险识别规则和贝叶斯算法后识别精度提高为89.32%.该模型将贝叶斯算法融入到了决策树模型,可以评估数据完整或缺失样本的Cd污染风险,确定小麦Cd富集的主控因子,同时可以基于风险识别规则判定小麦Cd风险程度和范围,为土壤安全利用和小麦安全生产区的划定提供参考.
In order to reveal the relationship between the environmental factors and the risk of wheat excessive Cd, seven factors(concentration of Cd in soil, polluting enterprises, the town and industrial land, transportation land, soil type, SOM and soil pH) are considered, and five Bayesian decision trees were established based on ID3 algorithm and Naive Bayesian algorithm. 15 identification rules of wheat Cd pollution risk were extracted, and the risk was divided into five levels. Polluting enterprises, soil p H and concentration of Cd in soil were the three dominant factors of wheat Cd enrichment. According to the validation, the average prediction accuracy was 81.14%, and the overall recognition accuracy was improved to 89.32% after using the Bayesian algorithm and risk identification rules. The model integrated the Bayesian algorithm into the decision tree model, which could assess the Cd pollution risk in samples with complete or missing data, determine the dominant factors of wheat Cd enrichment, and identify the degree and region of wheat Cd pollution based on the risk identification rules. This approach could provide a scientific tool for soil safety use and the delimitation of wheat safety production area.
In order to reveal the relationship between the environmental factors and the risk of wheat excessive Cd, seven factors(concentration of Cd in soil, polluting enterprises, the town and industrial land, transportation land, soil type, SOM and soil pH) are considered, and five Bayesian decision trees were established based on ID3 algorithm and Naive Bayesian algorithm. 15 identification rules of wheat Cd pollution risk were extracted, and the risk was divided into five levels. Polluting enterprises, soil p H and concentration of Cd in soil were the three dominant factors of wheat Cd enrichment. According to the validation, the average prediction accuracy was 81.14%, and the overall recognition accuracy was improved to 89.32% after using the Bayesian algorithm and risk identification rules. The model integrated the Bayesian algorithm into the decision tree model, which could assess the Cd pollution risk in samples with complete or missing data, determine the dominant factors of wheat Cd enrichment, and identify the degree and region of wheat Cd pollution based on the risk identification rules. This approach could provide a scientific tool for soil safety use and the delimitation of wheat safety production area.
引文
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[3]Duruibe J O,Ogwuegbu M O C.Heavy metal pollution and human biotoxic effects[J].International Journal of Physical Sciences,2007,2(5):112-118.
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[5]武媛媛,李如梅,彭林,等.运城市道路扬尘化学组成特征及来源分析[J].环境科学,2017,38(5):1799-1806.Wu Yuanyuan,Li Rumei,Peng Lin,et al.Chemical Compositions and Source Apportionment of Road Dust in Yuncheng[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(5):1799-1806.
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[7]Grigoratos T,Martini G.Brake wear particle emissions:a review[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2015,22(4):2491-2504.
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[10]杨贺,刘杰.矿业生产影响区水稻田系统砷、铅、镉的污染特征及风险评价--以西江流域大环江下游为例[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(15):205-209.Yang He,Liu Jie.Pollution characteristics and risk assessment of arsenic,lead and cadmium in paddy field systems in mining production affected areas:A case study of the lower reaches of the greater Huanjiang River in Xijiang River Basin[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2018,46(15):205-209.
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[12]Zhang Y C,Yin S,Cao L,et al.Heavy metal accumulation and health risk assessment in soil-wheat system under different nitrogen levels[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,622-623:1499.
[13]Wang S,Wu W,Liu F,et al.Accumulation of heavy metals in soil-crop systems:a review for wheat and corn[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research International,2017,24(2):1-17.
[14]Ali A M,Ibrahim S M,El-Hady Y A A,et al.Assessment of bioavailability of some heavy metals to wheat and faba bean in Sahl El-Tina,Egypt[J].Agricultural Research,2018,7(1):72-82.
[15]Xie L,Hao P,Cheng Y,et al.Effect of combined application of lead,cadmium,chromium and copper on grain,leaf and stem heavy metal contents at different growth stages in rice[J].Ecotoxicology&Environmental Safety,2018,162:71-76.
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[18]Gall J E,Boyd R S,Rajakaruna N.Transfer of heavy metals through terrestrial food webs:a review[J].Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2015,187(4):201.
[19]赵瑞瑞,石福臣,周美利,等.雪松和圆柏对城乡大气环境中重金属的积累特征[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(12):3368-3373.Zhao Ruirui,Shi Fuchen,Zhou Meili,et al.Effects of urban-rural atmospheric environment on heavy metal accumulation of Cedrus deodara and Sabina chinensis[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2015,34(12):3368-3373.
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[21]Sardans J,Pe?uelas J,Estiarte M.Warming and drought change trace element bioaccumulation patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland[J].Chemosphere,2008,70(5):874-885.
[22]彭驰.城市土壤重金属与多环芳烃累积过程模拟[D].北京:中国科学院生态环境研究中心,2013.Peng Chi.Modeling heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons accumulation in urban soil[D].Beijing:Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013.
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[24]丁琼.土壤性质及钝化剂对镉在土壤-植物系统转移的影响[D].北京:首都师范大学,2012.Ding Qiong.The effects of soil properties and soil amendments on the transfer of Cadmium in soil-plant system[D].Beijing:Capital Normal University,2012
[25]赵科理.土壤-水稻系统重金属空间对应关系和定量模型研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2010.Zhao Keli.Spatial relationships of heacy metals in soil-rice system and the quantitative model[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2010.
[26]JR Q.Introduction of decision trees[J].Machine Learning,1986,(1):81-107.
[27]成伟.数据挖掘技术支持下的土壤重金属污染评价系统的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2009.Cheng Wei.A study of soil heavy metal pollution assessment system supported by data mining technology[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2009.
[28]王冠星,闫学东,张凡,等.青藏高原路侧土壤重金属含量分布规律及影响因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(2):431-438.Wang Guanxing,Yan Xuedong,Zhang Fan,et al.Influencing factors of heavy metal concentration in roadside-soil of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(2):431-438.
[29]邱乐丰.富阳市土地生产力时空变化研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.Qiu Lefeng.Spatial and temporal variation of land productivity in Fuyang County[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2012.
[30]朱军,胡文波.贝叶斯机器学习前沿进展综述[J].计算机研究与发展,2015,52(1):16-26.Zhu Jun,Hu Wenbo.Recent sdvances in bayesian machine learning[J].Journal of Computer Research and Development,2015,52(1):16-26.
[31]张静,张衍杰,方小珍,等.道路扬尘PM2.5中金属元素污染特征及健康风险评价[J].环境科学,2017,38(10):4071-4076.Zhang Jing,Zhan Yanjie,Fang Xiaozhen,et al.Characteristics and health risk assessment of metallic elements in PM2.5 fraction of road dust[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(10):4071-4076.
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