天津碳交易试点减排效果及路径研究——基于合成控制法的证据
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摘要
基于2007-2016年中国25个省市的面板数据,采用合成控制法检验了天津碳交易试点的减排效果,实证结果表明,天津实现了环境红利,但是减排效果甚微。一方面,天津碳交易试点采用历史排放法进行配额分配导致碳配额供过于求;另一方面,也有经济发展增速、产业结构、能源消费结构、碳市场发展状况等方面的原因。建议逐步实现经济增长和碳排放的完全脱钩、优化升级产业结构及能源消费结构,加快我国碳市场配套设施的建设,真正实现低碳可持续发展。
Based on the panel data of 25 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2016,the article uses the synthetic control method to test the emission reduction effect of Tianjin Carbon Trading Pilot. The empirical results show that Tianjin has achieved an environmental dividend,but the emission reduction effect is minimal. On the one hand,Tianjin Carbon Trading Pilot uses the historical emission method for quota allocation,resulting in oversupply of carbon allowances. On the other hand,it is also due to the economic growth,industrial structure,energy consumption structure and the development of carbon market. It is suggested that we should gradually realize the complete decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions,optimize and upgrade the industrial structure and energy consumption structure,and accelerate the construction of supporting facilities in China's carbon market,so as to truly realize the low-carbon and sustainable development.
Based on the panel data of 25 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2016,the article uses the synthetic control method to test the emission reduction effect of Tianjin Carbon Trading Pilot. The empirical results show that Tianjin has achieved an environmental dividend,but the emission reduction effect is minimal. On the one hand,Tianjin Carbon Trading Pilot uses the historical emission method for quota allocation,resulting in oversupply of carbon allowances. On the other hand,it is also due to the economic growth,industrial structure,energy consumption structure and the development of carbon market. It is suggested that we should gradually realize the complete decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions,optimize and upgrade the industrial structure and energy consumption structure,and accelerate the construction of supporting facilities in China's carbon market,so as to truly realize the low-carbon and sustainable development.
引文
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[8]黄向岚，张训常，刘晔．我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗?[J]．经济评论，2018(6):86-99.
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[11]潘文卿．碳税对中国产业与地区竞争力的影响:基于CO2排放责任的视角[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，2015,32(6):3-20.
[12]杜立民．我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于省级面板数据的研究[J]．南方经济，2010(11):20-33.
[13]ABADIA A,DIAMOND A,HAINMUELLER J. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:estimating the effect of Californias’tobacco control program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010,105(490):493-505.
[14]肖德，张媛．经济增长、能源消费与二氧化碳排放的互动关系——基于动态面板联立方程的估计[J]．经济问题探索，2016(9):29-39.
[2]DALES J H. Pollution,property and prices:an essay in policy-making and economic[M]. Toronto:University of Toronto Press,1968.
[3]张俊，林卿．供给侧视角下环境规制对福建省制造业FDI的影响[J]．福建商学院学报，2017(4):1-6.
[4]BURNIAUX J M,MARTIN J P,NICOLETTI G,et al. Green a multi-sector,multi-region General Equilibrium Model for quantifying the costs of curbing CO2emissions[R].OECD,1992.
[5]安崇义，唐跃军．排放权交易机制下企业碳减排的决策模型研究[J]．经济研究，2012,47(8):45-58.
[6]孙睿，况丹，常冬勤.碳交易的“能源-经济-环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2014,24(7):82-90.
[7]沈洪涛，黄楠，刘浪．碳排放权交易的微观效果及机制研究[J]．厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2017(1):13-22.
[8]黄向岚，张训常，刘晔．我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗?[J]．经济评论，2018(6):86-99.
[9]ABADIE A,GARDEAZABAL J. The economic costs of conflict:a case study of the basque country[J]. The American Economic Review,2003,93(1):113-132.
[10]陈诗一．能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J]．经济研究，2009,44(4):41-55.
[11]潘文卿．碳税对中国产业与地区竞争力的影响:基于CO2排放责任的视角[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，2015,32(6):3-20.
[12]杜立民．我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于省级面板数据的研究[J]．南方经济，2010(11):20-33.
[13]ABADIA A,DIAMOND A,HAINMUELLER J. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:estimating the effect of Californias’tobacco control program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010,105(490):493-505.
[14]肖德，张媛．经济增长、能源消费与二氧化碳排放的互动关系——基于动态面板联立方程的估计[J]．经济问题探索，2016(9):29-39.