基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的大叶桂樱在我国的潜在分布预测研究
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摘要
基于19个环境气候变量和大叶桂樱(Laurocerasus zippeliana Miq.)345个标本分布记录,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(GIS)分析预测了大叶桂樱在我国的潜在分布区,评估了影响大叶桂樱潜在地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:当前气候环境下,大叶桂樱潜在适生区分布在广东、广西、贵州、云南、江西、福建、甘肃、四川、浙江、湖北、湖南、陕西、台湾等省份,其中其最适生区主要集中在广西、贵州、广东、福建;影响其当前分布的环境气候因子有降水和温度,且降水较温度影响更大。未来气候下,大叶桂樱的分布有向北迁移的趋势,并且其最适生区面积具有减少和离散的趋势。
Based on data of 19 environmental climate variables and 345 geographic distribution records from specimens of Laurocerasus zippeliana,the potential distribution area of Laurocerasus zippeliana in China were analyzed and predicted by using MaxEnt ecological model and GIS technology. The main climatic factors restricting the potential geographical distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana were evaluated. Result shows that under the current climate environment, Laurocerasus zippeliana have extensive potential distribution in Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Gansu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and Taiwan Province. Among them, the most suitable areas for Laurocerasus zippeliana are mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong and Fujian province. There are seven environmental variables, just precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual temperature, which show a large amount of contribution to potential distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana. Overall, the precipitation has greater impact than the temperature. In the future climate, the distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana will migrate northward, and the area of its optimum habitat will decrease and disperse.
Based on data of 19 environmental climate variables and 345 geographic distribution records from specimens of Laurocerasus zippeliana,the potential distribution area of Laurocerasus zippeliana in China were analyzed and predicted by using MaxEnt ecological model and GIS technology. The main climatic factors restricting the potential geographical distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana were evaluated. Result shows that under the current climate environment, Laurocerasus zippeliana have extensive potential distribution in Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Gansu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and Taiwan Province. Among them, the most suitable areas for Laurocerasus zippeliana are mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong and Fujian province. There are seven environmental variables, just precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual temperature, which show a large amount of contribution to potential distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana. Overall, the precipitation has greater impact than the temperature. In the future climate, the distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana will migrate northward, and the area of its optimum habitat will decrease and disperse.
引文
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[4] 聂晋琳.大叶桂樱无性系扦插繁殖[J].广西林业科学,2014,43(2):215-218
[5] 陈香,田雪琴,王志云,等.6个南方乡土绿化树种大容器苗栽培基质研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(5):41-46
[6] 李建清,陈莲莲,林飞凡,等.雁荡山地区大叶桂樱种质资源调查研究[J].农业科技通讯,2015(12):96-298
[7] 任启飞,杨加文,袁茂琴,等.贵州福泉大叶桂樱群落结构研究[J].种子,2018,37(9):60-64
[8] 徐晓婷,杨永,王利松.白豆杉的地理分布及潜在分布区估计[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(5):1134-1145
[9] Phillips S J,Schapire R,E..A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling[C].International Conference on Machine Learning,2004:655-662
[10] 中国科学院中国植物志编辑委员会.中国植物志[M].北京:科学出版社,1993:(38):116-117
[11] 张飞,陈随清,王利丽,等.基于Maxent和ArcGIS的山茱萸生态适宜性区划研究[J].中国中药杂志,2017,46(16):3078-3083
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[13] 陈莲莲,鲁唯达,李小瑶,等.大叶桂樱野外自然生长与人工栽培苗木的比较[J].现代园艺,2015(11):20-21
[14] 郑景云,尹云鹤,李炳元.中国气候区划新方案[J].地理学报,2012,65(1):4 -12
[15] 郭泉水,阎洪,徐德应,等.气候变化对我国红松林地理分布影响的研究[J].生态学报,1998,18(5):484-488
[16] 张兴旺,李垚,方炎明.麻栎在中国的地理分布及潜在分布区预测[J].西北植物学报,2014,34(8):1685-1692
[17] 李璇,李垚,方炎明.基于优化的Maxent模型预测白栎在中国的潜在分布区[J].林业科学,2018,54(8):153-164