基于灰色理论的三次指数平滑模型预测自然陈化中热闷钢渣f-CaO含量
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摘要
采用自然陈化方法处理热闷钢渣,跟踪检测热闷钢渣中游离氧化钙(f-CaO)含量。运用灰色预测模型和三次指数平滑模型,建立基于灰色理论的三次指数平滑模型(GM-ESIII预测模型)预测热闷钢渣自然陈化中f-CaO含量。结果表明,自然陈化方法处理热闷钢渣可以有效降低f-CaO含量,即S热闷钢渣150 d之后f-CaO含量从9. 41%下降至6. 01%且基本维持在6. 00%左右,N热闷钢渣160 d之后f-CaO含量从5. 83%下降至2. 64%且基本维持在2. 65%左右; GM-ESIII预测模型的预测数据与试验数据吻合较好,相对误差为-2. 149%～1. 894%,有效提高了热闷钢渣自然陈化中f-CaO含量预测精度;同时GM-ESIII预测模型中平滑系数与初始f-CaO含量的相关性较小,与f-CaO含量变化趋势的相关性较大。
Natural aging method was used to deal with hot disintegration steel slag,content of free calcium (f-CaO) in hot disintegration steel slag was traced and checked. Cubic exponential smoothing prediction model based on grey theory (GM-ESIII prediction model) was established by grey prediction model and cubic exponential smoothing prediction model to forecast the f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag in natural aging. The results indicate that f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag was effective reduced by natural aging method,namely f-CaO content in S hot disintegration steel slag dropped from9. 41% to 6. 01% and was basically maintained at about 6. 00%,f-CaO content in N hot disintegration steel slag dropped from 5. 83% to 2. 64% and was basically maintained at about 2. 65%. GM-ESIII prediction model predicted data agree well with the experimental data, the relative error is-2. 149%-1. 894%,it can increase the prediction accuracy efficiently of the f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag in natural aging; at the same time,the smoothness coefficient is less correlated with the initial f-CaO content,and more correlated with the variation trend of f-CaO content in GM-ESIII prediction model.
Natural aging method was used to deal with hot disintegration steel slag,content of free calcium (f-CaO) in hot disintegration steel slag was traced and checked. Cubic exponential smoothing prediction model based on grey theory (GM-ESIII prediction model) was established by grey prediction model and cubic exponential smoothing prediction model to forecast the f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag in natural aging. The results indicate that f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag was effective reduced by natural aging method,namely f-CaO content in S hot disintegration steel slag dropped from9. 41% to 6. 01% and was basically maintained at about 6. 00%,f-CaO content in N hot disintegration steel slag dropped from 5. 83% to 2. 64% and was basically maintained at about 2. 65%. GM-ESIII prediction model predicted data agree well with the experimental data, the relative error is-2. 149%-1. 894%,it can increase the prediction accuracy efficiently of the f-CaO content of hot disintegration steel slag in natural aging; at the same time,the smoothness coefficient is less correlated with the initial f-CaO content,and more correlated with the variation trend of f-CaO content in GM-ESIII prediction model.
引文
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[2]金强,徐锦引.宝钢新型渣处理工艺及其资源化利用技术[J].宝钢技术,2005(3):12-15.
[3]唐明述,袁美栖,韩苏芬,等.钢渣中Mg O、Fe O、Mn O的结晶状态与钢渣的体积安定性[J].硅酸盐学报,1979,7(1):35-46.
[4]王博.钢渣中游离氧化钙、游离氧化镁的测定及其安定性研究[D].北京:北京化工大学,2007:21-23.
[5]Motz H,Geiseler J.Products of steel slags an opportunity to save natural resources[J].Waste Management,2001,21(3):285-293.
[6]Qian G R,Sun D D,Tay J H,et al.Autoclave properties of kirschsteinite-based steel slag[J].Cement and Concrete Research,2002,32(9):1377-1382.
[7]宋中民,邓聚龙.反向累加生成及灰色GOM(1,1)模型[J].系统工程,2001,19(1):66-69.
[8]张浩,朱庆明,刘秀玉,等.基于指数平滑法的光催化涂料效果灰色预测模型及应用[J].涂料工业,2013,43(1):27-31.
[9]张浩,朱庆明.指数平滑法在光催化涂料效果预测中的应用[J].涂料工业,2012,42(2):49-52.
[10]丁沧海.Excel变量与三次指数平滑模拟预测方法[J].统计与决策,2005(6):121-127.
[11]史玉峰,孙保琪.时间序列分析及其在变形数据分析处理中的应用[J].金属矿山,2004(8):13-16.
[12]史玉峰,宁津生.指数平滑法改进灰色模型及其在形变数据分析中的应用.煤炭学报[J].2005,30(2):206-209.