南京市工业污染排放趋势及分解分析
|
摘要
采用灰色预测模型模拟南京市近年来的环境污染物排放的动态演进情况,应用结构分解分析法对工业污染物排放变化的成因进行了定量分析。结果表明,南京市工业废水、COD、SO_2排放量均呈现指数降低的趋势,但工业废气排放量呈现指数增加的趋势。将污染物排放变化的成因分为规模效应、结构效应和广义技术效应3类,结果显示,规模效应对污染物增长的贡献率最大,技术效应对于污染物排放(除工业废气外)的减少贡献率最大,结构效应对于污染物排放的减少也有一定的作用,但贡献率相对较小。从不同的时期来看,与"十一五"期间相比,"十二五"期间的工业污染物排放的规模效应稍有下降趋势,技术效应缩减趋势明显,甚至由负转正,结构效应呈现增长的趋势,但负效应仍然较弱。
In this paper, the gray prediction model is used to simulate the dynamic evolution of environmental pollutant emission in Nanjing in recent years, and the cause of industrial pollutant emission change is quantitatively analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis method. The results show that the discharge of industrial wastewater, COD and SO_2 in Nanjing showed an exponential decreasing trend, but the industrial waste gas emissions were increasing exponentially. In this paper, the causes of pollutant emission change are divided into three categories: scale effect, structure effect and generalized technical effect. The results show that the scale effect has the largest contribution to the increase of pollutants, the technical effect has the largest contribution to the reduction of pollutant emissions(except industrial waste gas), and the structure effect only has a little have impact on the reduction of pollutant emissions. Compared with the 11 th-year plan period, the scale effect of industrial pollutant emission in the 12 th-year plan period has a slightly decreased trend, but the technical effect decreased obviously, even from negative to positive, and the structural effect showed an increasing trend, but the negative effect was still weak.
In this paper, the gray prediction model is used to simulate the dynamic evolution of environmental pollutant emission in Nanjing in recent years, and the cause of industrial pollutant emission change is quantitatively analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis method. The results show that the discharge of industrial wastewater, COD and SO_2 in Nanjing showed an exponential decreasing trend, but the industrial waste gas emissions were increasing exponentially. In this paper, the causes of pollutant emission change are divided into three categories: scale effect, structure effect and generalized technical effect. The results show that the scale effect has the largest contribution to the increase of pollutants, the technical effect has the largest contribution to the reduction of pollutant emissions(except industrial waste gas), and the structure effect only has a little have impact on the reduction of pollutant emissions. Compared with the 11 th-year plan period, the scale effect of industrial pollutant emission in the 12 th-year plan period has a slightly decreased trend, but the technical effect decreased obviously, even from negative to positive, and the structural effect showed an increasing trend, but the negative effect was still weak.
引文
[1]邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987.53.
[2]王国平.城市污水及主要污染物排放量的灰色预测模型[J].环境工程,2000,1(12):47-51.
[3]郭海湘,杨钰莹,左芝鲤.中国城市群碳平衡仿真模拟研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018,18(2):114-125.
[4]徐宁,党耀囯.特征自适应型GM模型及对中国交通污染排放量的预测建模[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(1):187-196.
[5]刘云枫,冯姝婷,葛志远.基于结构分解分析的1980～2013年中国二氧化碳排放分析[J].软科学,2018,32(6):53-57.
[6]张子龙,陈兴鹏,杨静,等.甘肃省经济增长与环境压力关系动态变化的结构分解分析[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(2):429-433.
[7]鹿晨昱,王春娟,张子龙,等.庆阳市污染型环境压力的变化趋势及其驱动因素分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(3):618-625.
[8]闫云凤,杨来科,张云.中国CO2排放增长的结构分解分析[J].上海立信会计学院学报,2010,(5):83-89.
[9]成艾华.技术进步、结构调整与中国工业减排—基于环境效应分解模型的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3):41-47.
[10]储成君,贾杰林,吴舜泽,等.2001-2010年工业COD排放和水资源消耗分解研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):69-74.
[11]陈六君,王大辉,方福康.中国污染变化的主要因素—分解模型与实证分析[J].北京师范大学学报,2004,40(4):561-568.
[12]周静,杨桂山.江苏省工业污染排放特征及其成因分析[J].中国环境科学,2007,27(2):284-288.
[13]刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014,141.
[2]王国平.城市污水及主要污染物排放量的灰色预测模型[J].环境工程,2000,1(12):47-51.
[3]郭海湘,杨钰莹,左芝鲤.中国城市群碳平衡仿真模拟研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018,18(2):114-125.
[4]徐宁,党耀囯.特征自适应型GM模型及对中国交通污染排放量的预测建模[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(1):187-196.
[5]刘云枫,冯姝婷,葛志远.基于结构分解分析的1980～2013年中国二氧化碳排放分析[J].软科学,2018,32(6):53-57.
[6]张子龙,陈兴鹏,杨静,等.甘肃省经济增长与环境压力关系动态变化的结构分解分析[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(2):429-433.
[7]鹿晨昱,王春娟,张子龙,等.庆阳市污染型环境压力的变化趋势及其驱动因素分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(3):618-625.
[8]闫云凤,杨来科,张云.中国CO2排放增长的结构分解分析[J].上海立信会计学院学报,2010,(5):83-89.
[9]成艾华.技术进步、结构调整与中国工业减排—基于环境效应分解模型的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3):41-47.
[10]储成君,贾杰林,吴舜泽,等.2001-2010年工业COD排放和水资源消耗分解研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):69-74.
[11]陈六君,王大辉,方福康.中国污染变化的主要因素—分解模型与实证分析[J].北京师范大学学报,2004,40(4):561-568.
[12]周静,杨桂山.江苏省工业污染排放特征及其成因分析[J].中国环境科学,2007,27(2):284-288.
[13]刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014,141.