兰州市榆中县能见度的精细化预报研究
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摘要
利用2005—2015年兰州市榆中县大气能见度的观测资料,分析了影响榆中县能见度的气象因子,利用多元线性回归的方法建立榆中县能见度的预报方程,并将2016年的数据代入预报方程进行检验,最后得到2016年榆中县能见度的预报值,将2016年榆中县能见度的实测值和预报值进行对比分析。结果表明,榆中县能见度夏季和秋季相对较好,而春季由于沙尘天气的出现和比较多的大风天气对能见度的影响比较大;冬季则主要是雾、霾天气的影响和农村燃煤取暖而产生的烟雾对能见度的影响比较大。
Meteorological factors affecting visibility in Yuzhong county of Lanzhou city from 2005 to 2015 were analyzed based on the observation data of atmospheric visibility. Using the method of multiple linear regression, the forecast equation of visibility in Yuzhong county was established, and the data of 2016 were substituted into the forecast equation for testing. Finally, the forecast value of visibility in Yuzhong county in 2016 was obtained, and the measured value and forecast value of visibility in Yuzhong county in 2016 were compared and analyzed. The results showed that the visibility in Yuzhong county was relatively good in summer and autumn, but in spring due to the appearance of dust weather and more windy weather had a greater impact on visibility. In winter, it was the mainly influence of fog and haze weather and the smoke generated by burning coal for heating in rural areas.
Meteorological factors affecting visibility in Yuzhong county of Lanzhou city from 2005 to 2015 were analyzed based on the observation data of atmospheric visibility. Using the method of multiple linear regression, the forecast equation of visibility in Yuzhong county was established, and the data of 2016 were substituted into the forecast equation for testing. Finally, the forecast value of visibility in Yuzhong county in 2016 was obtained, and the measured value and forecast value of visibility in Yuzhong county in 2016 were compared and analyzed. The results showed that the visibility in Yuzhong county was relatively good in summer and autumn, but in spring due to the appearance of dust weather and more windy weather had a greater impact on visibility. In winter, it was the mainly influence of fog and haze weather and the smoke generated by burning coal for heating in rural areas.
引文
[1]于志翔，于晓晶，李霞．2013—2015年乌鲁木齐北部城区大气能见度变化特征及其影响因素[J]．干旱气象，2017,35(3):412-419.
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[3]王天舒，牛生杰．内蒙古东部春季三类沙尘天气气溶胶散射系数及其与PM10、能见度相关性分析[J]．大气科学，2017,41(1):121-131.
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[13]李沛，王式功，尚可政，等．基于神经网络逐级分类建模的北京地区能见度预报[J]．兰州大学学报（自然科学版），2012,48(3):52-57.
[14]赵庆云，张武，王式功．空气污染与大气能见度及环流特征的研究[J]．高原气象，2003,22(4):393-396.
[15]黄嘉佑．气象统计分析与预报方法[M]．第3版．北京：气象出版社，2004.36-49.
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[3]王天舒，牛生杰．内蒙古东部春季三类沙尘天气气溶胶散射系数及其与PM10、能见度相关性分析[J]．大气科学，2017,41(1):121-131.
[4]郝巨飞，张功文，杨允凌．大气能见度及影响因子特征分析[J]．干旱区资源与环境，2017,31(4):160-164.
[5]胡琳，王琦，张文静，等．关中地区低能见度事件变化特征分析[J]．干旱区地理，2016,39(1):41-46.
[6]万瑜，曹兴，窦新英，等．2011年12月乌鲁木齐一次大雾天气成因[J]．干旱气象，2013,31(2):383-389.
[7]汤鹏宇，何宏让，阳向荣．大连海雾特征及形成机理初步分析[J]．干旱气象，2013,31(1):62-69.
[8]王颖，黄文震．呼伦贝尔市大气能见度影响因子及一次低能见度个例分析[J]．沙漠与绿洲气象，2017,11(6):61-68.
[9]林杨，胡琳，邓小丽，等．西安市大气能见度变化规律及与空气污染关系[J]．陕西气象，2007(6):29-31.
[10]陶俊，谢文彰，许振成，等．冬季广州大气能见度影响因子分析[J]．城市环境与城市生态，2007,20(1):17-20.
[11]洪盛茂，焦荔，何曦，等．杭州市区大气能见度变化及其与主要因子的分析[J]．中国粉体技术，2009,15(2):56-61.
[12]程一帆，张兰慧，尚可政，等．兰州市冬季霾的统计预报研究[J]．中国沙漠，2011,31(3):750-756.
[13]李沛，王式功，尚可政，等．基于神经网络逐级分类建模的北京地区能见度预报[J]．兰州大学学报（自然科学版），2012,48(3):52-57.
[14]赵庆云，张武，王式功．空气污染与大气能见度及环流特征的研究[J]．高原气象，2003,22(4):393-396.
[15]黄嘉佑．气象统计分析与预报方法[M]．第3版．北京：气象出版社，2004.36-49.