基于虚拟水流动模式下水资源调控研究
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摘要
解决干旱区水资源缺乏问题必须要从水资源系统配置的角度考虑,虚拟水理念有别于传统的水资源直接配置,通过改变农产品流通格局,进而优化虚拟水流动状态,实现水资源系统配置。结合甘肃省实际情况,在满足"农产品不减收""各地农业用水量不增加"两大约束条件下,以优化算法为工具,搭建了基于甘肃省14个市(州)的以农产品为调控对象的数学模型,调控后,地区总收入呈上升趋势,上升约7%,但农业用水量呈下降趋势,下降约4%。玉米的进口总量上升了9%～10%,而小麦进口总量同比下降了28%～30%。调控方案使虚拟水流动均衡性在当地农业用水综合调控中集中体现,提高了地区水资源系统配置实现的可能性,实现了水资源直接配置和间接调配的综合管理,对缓解干旱区未来社会经济发展中水资源配置面临的问题提出了新的思路。
To solve the problem of water resources shortage in arid areas, we must consider the allocation of water resources system. The virtual water concept is different from the traditional direct allocation of water resources. By changing the circulation pattern of agricultural products, we can optimize the virtual water flow status and realize the allocation of water resources system. In combination with the actual situation in Gansu Province, under the two constraints of "not reducing agricultural products" and "no increase in agricultural water consumption everywhere", the optimization algorithm was used as a tool to build agricultural products based on 14 cities(states) in Gansu Province. After the mathematical model of the target, the total regional income showed an upward trend, rising by about 7%, but the agricultural water consumption showed a downward trend, down about 4%. The total import of corn increased by 9% to 10%, while the total import of wheat decreased by 28% to 30%. The regulation scheme makes the virtual water flow balance concentrated in the comprehensive regulation of local agricultural water use, improves the possibility of realizing the allocation of water resources system in the region, realizes the comprehensive management of direct allocation and indirect deployment of water resources, and alleviates the future social economy of the arid zone. The new problems in the development of water resources allocation issues.
To solve the problem of water resources shortage in arid areas, we must consider the allocation of water resources system. The virtual water concept is different from the traditional direct allocation of water resources. By changing the circulation pattern of agricultural products, we can optimize the virtual water flow status and realize the allocation of water resources system. In combination with the actual situation in Gansu Province, under the two constraints of "not reducing agricultural products" and "no increase in agricultural water consumption everywhere", the optimization algorithm was used as a tool to build agricultural products based on 14 cities(states) in Gansu Province. After the mathematical model of the target, the total regional income showed an upward trend, rising by about 7%, but the agricultural water consumption showed a downward trend, down about 4%. The total import of corn increased by 9% to 10%, while the total import of wheat decreased by 28% to 30%. The regulation scheme makes the virtual water flow balance concentrated in the comprehensive regulation of local agricultural water use, improves the possibility of realizing the allocation of water resources system in the region, realizes the comprehensive management of direct allocation and indirect deployment of water resources, and alleviates the future social economy of the arid zone. The new problems in the development of water resources allocation issues.
引文
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[3]万宝林,肖俊青.水资源合理调控利用发展农业节水灌溉[J].地下水.2005.27(2):81-83.
[4]吕红,张静,刘萍.地下水科学调控与增效利用[J].地下水.2005.27(4):263-265.
[5]王浩.水资源配置理论与方法探讨[J].水利规划与设计.2004.17(增1):50-53.
[2]翁文斌,蔡喜明,史慧斌,等.宏观经济水资源规划多目标决策分析方法研究与应用[J].水利学报.1995.26(2):1-11.
[3]黄强,晏毅,范荣生,等.黄河干流水库联合调度模拟优化模型及人机对话算法[J].水利学报.1997.10(4):56-61.
[4]刘德地,王高旭,陈晓宏,等.基于混沌和声搜索算法的水资源优化配置[J].系统工程理论与实践.2011.31(7):1378-1386.
[5]张玲,徐宗学,张志果.基于粒子群算法的水资源优化配置[J].水文.2009.29(3):41-45.
[6]孙义鹏.基于水足迹理论的水资源可持续利用研究---以沿海缺水城市为例[D].大连:大连理工大学.2007.
[7]Hoeskstra A Y,Hung P Q.Globalization of water resources:international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change.2005.15(1):45-56.
[8]卜轶彪.中国小麦市场流通的变化与趋势[D].北京:中国农业科学院.2004.
[9]严冬,周建中,孙怀才,等.基于虚拟水流动均衡性的农业用水综合调控[J].农业工程学报.2014.30(21):91-98.
[10]龙爱华,徐中明,张志强.西北四省(区)2000年的水资源足迹[J].冰川冻土.2003.25(6):692-700.
[11]Dabo Guan,Klaus Hubacek.Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China[J].Ecological economics.2007.61(1):159-170.
[12]Kuishuang Feng,Yim Ling Siu,Dabo Guan,et al.Assessing regional virtual water flows and water footprints in the Yellow River Basin,China:a consumption based approach[J].Applied geography.2012.32(2):691-701.
[13]Paul A Samuelson,William D Nordhaus.Economics,19th Edition[M].McGraw Hill Higher Education.2009.